XEL, §1A diff (2020 → 2021)
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ITEM 1A — RISK FACTORS Xcel Energy is subject to a variety of risks, many of which are beyond our control. Risks that may adversely affect the business, financial condition, results of operations or cash flows are described below. Although the risks are organized by heading, and each risk is described separately, many of the risks are interrelated. These risks should be carefully considered together with the other information set forth in this report and future reports that we file with the SEC. You should not interpret the disclosure of any risk factor to imply that the risk has not already materialized. While we believe we have identified and discussed below the key risk factors affecting our business, there may be additional risks and uncertainties that are not presently known or that are not currently believed to be significant that may adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations or cash flows in the future. Oversight of Risk and Related Processes The Board of Directors is responsible for the oversight of material risk and maintaining an effective risk monitoring process. Management and the Board of Directors’ committees have responsibility for overseeing the identification and mitigation of key risks and reporting its assessments and activities to the full Board of Directors. Xcel Energy maintains a robust compliance program and promotes a culture of compliance beginning with the tone at the top. The risk mitigation process includes adherence to our code of conduct and compliance policies, operation of formal risk management structures and overall business management. Xcel Energy further mitigates inherent risks through formal risk committees and corporate functions such as internal audit, and internal controls over financial reporting and legal. Management identifies and analyzes risks to determine materiality and other attributes such as timing, probability and controllability. Identification and risk analysis occurs formally through risk assessment conducted by senior management, the financial disclosure process, hazard risk procedures, internal audit and compliance with financial and operational controls. Management also identifies and analyzes risk through the business planning process, development of goals and establishment of key performance indicators, including identification of barriers to implementing Xcel Energy’s strategy. The business planning process also identifies likelihood and mitigating factors to prevent the assumption of inappropriate risk to meet goals. Management communicates regularly with the Board of Directors and key stakeholders regarding risk. Senior management presents and communicates a periodic risk assessment to the Board of Directors, providing information on the risks that management believes are material, including financial impact, timing, likelihood and mitigating factors. The Board of Directors regularly reviews management’s key risk assessments, which includes areas of existing and future macroeconomic, financial, operational, policy, environmental and security risks. The oversight, management and mitigation of risk is an integral and continuous part of the Board of Directors’ governance of Xcel Energy. The Board of Directors assigns oversight of critical risks to each of its four committees to ensure these risks are well understood and given appropriate focus.
The Audit Committee is responsible for reviewing the adequacy of the committee’s risk oversight and affirming appropriate aggregate oversight occurs. Committees regularly report on their oversight activities and certain risk issues may be brought to the full Board of Directors for consideration when deemed appropriate. New risks are considered and assigned as appropriate during the annual Board of Directors and committee evaluation process, resulting in updates to the committee charters and annual work plans. Additionally, the Board of Directors conducts an annual strategy session where Xcel Energy’s future plans and initiatives are reviewed. Operational Risks Our natural gas and electric generation/transmission and distribution operations involve numerous risks that may result in accidents and other operating risks and costs. Our natural gas transmission and distribution activities include inherent hazards and operating risks, such as leaks, explosions, outages and mechanical problems. Our electric generation, transmission and distribution activities include inherent hazards and operating risks such as contact, fire and outages. These risks could result in loss of life, significant property damage, environmental pollution, impairment of our operations and substantial financial losses to employees, third-party contractors, customers or the public. We maintain insurance against most, but not all, of these risks and losses. The occurrence of these events, if not fully covered by insurance, could have a material effect on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows as well as potential loss of reputation. Other uncertainties and risks inherent in operating and maintaining Xcel Energy's facilities include, but are not limited to: •Risks associated with facility start-up operations, such as whether the facility will achieve projected operating performance on schedule and otherwise as planned. •Failures in the availability, acquisition or transportation of fuel or other necessary supplies. •The impact of unusual or adverse weather conditions and natural disasters, including, but not limited to, tornadoes, icing events, floods and droughts. •Performance below expected or contracted levels of output or efficiency (e.g., performance guarantees). •Availability of replacement equipment. •Availability of adequate water resources and ability to satisfy water intake and discharge requirements. •Inability to identify, manage properly or mitigate equipment defects. •Use of new or unproven technology. •Risks associated with dependence on a specific type of fuel or fuel source, such as commodity price risk, availability of adequate fuel supply and transportation and lack of available alternative fuel sources. •Increased competition due to, among other factors, new facilities, excess supply, shifting demand and regulatory changes.
Additionally, compliance with existing and potential new regulations related to the operation and maintenance of our natural gas infrastructure could result in significant costs. The PHMSA is responsible for administering the DOT’s national regulatory program to assure the safe transportation of natural gas, petroleum and other hazardous materials by pipelines. The PHMSA continues to develop regulations and other approaches to risk management to assure safety in design, construction, testing, operation, maintenance and emergency response of natural gas pipeline infrastructure. We have programs in place to comply with these regulations and systematically monitor and renew infrastructure over time, however, a significant incident or material finding of non-compliance could result in penalties and higher costs of operations. Our natural gas and electric transmission and distribution operations are dependent upon complex information technology systems and network infrastructure, the failure of which could disrupt our normal business operations, which could have a material adverse effect on our ability to process transactions and provide services. Our utility operations are subject to long-term planning and project risks. Most electric utility investments are planned to be used for decades. Transmission and generation investments typically have long lead times and are planned well in advance of in-service dates and typically subject to long-term resource plans. These plans are based on numerous assumptions such as: sales growth, customer usage, commodity prices, economic activity, costs, regulatory mechanisms, customer behavior, available technology and public policy. Xcel Energy’s long-term resource plan is dependent on our ability to obtain required approvals, develop necessary technical expertise, allocate and coordinate sufficient resources and adhere to budgets and timelines. In addition, the long-term nature of both our planning and our asset lives are subject to risk. The electric utility sector is undergoing significant change (e.g., increases in energy efficiency, wider adoption of distributed generation and shifts away from fossil fuel generation to renewable generation). Customer adoption of these technologies and increased energy efficiency could result in excess transmission and generation resources, downward pressure on sales growth, and potentially stranded costs if we are not able to fully recover costs and investments. The magnitude and timing of resource additions and changes in customer demand may not coincide with evolving customer preference for generation resources and end-uses, which introduces further uncertainty into long-term planning. Efforts to electrify the transportation and building sectors to reduce GHG emissions may result in higher electric demand and lower natural gas demand over time. Higher electric demand may require us to adopt new technologies and make significant transmission and distribution investments including advanced grid infrastructure, which increases exposure to overall grid instability and technology obsolescence. Evolving stakeholder preference for lower emissions from generation sources and end-uses, like heating, may impact our resource mix and put pressure on our ability to recover capital investments in natural gas generation and delivery. Multiple states may not agree as to the appropriate resource mix, which may lead to costs to comply with one jurisdiction that are not recoverable across all jurisdictions served by the same assets.
We are subject to longer-term availability of inputs such as coal, natural gas, uranium and water to cool our facilities. Lack of availability of these resources could jeopardize long-term operations of our facilities or make them uneconomic to operate. Our utilities are highly dependent on suppliers to deliver components in accordance with short and long-term project schedules. Our products contain components that are globally sourced from suppliers who, in turn, source components from their suppliers. A shortage of key components in which an alternative supplier is not identified could significantly impact project plans. Such impacts could include timing of projects, including potential for project cancellation. Failure to adhere to project budgets and timelines could adversely impact our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. We are subject to commodity risks and other risks associated with energy markets and energy production. In the event fuel costs increase, customer demand could decline and bad debt expense may rise, which may have a material impact on our results of operations. Despite existing fuel recovery mechanisms in most of our states, higher fuel costs could significantly impact our results of operations if costs are not recovered. Delays in the timing of the collection of fuel cost recoveries could impact our cash flows and liquidity. A significant disruption in supply could cause us to seek alternative supply services at potentially higher costs and supply shortages may not be fully resolved, which could cause disruptions in our ability to provide services to our customers. Failure to provide service due to disruptions may also result in fines, penalties or cost disallowances through the regulatory process. Also, significantly higher energy or fuel costs relative to sales commitments could negatively impact our cash flows and results of operations. We also engage in wholesale sales and purchases of electric capacity, energy and energy-related products as well as natural gas. In many markets, emission allowances and/or RECs are also needed to comply with various statutes and commission rulings. As a result, we are subject to market supply and commodity price risk. Commodity price changes can affect the value of our commodity trading derivatives. We mark certain derivatives to estimated fair market value on a daily basis. Settlements can vary significantly from estimated fair values recorded and significant changes from the assumptions underlying our fair value estimates could cause earnings variability. The management of risks associated with hedging and trading is based, in part, on programs and procedures which utilize historical prices and trends. Due to the inherent uncertainty involved in price movements and potential deviation from historical pricing, Xcel Energy is unable to fully assure that its risk management programs and procedures would be effective to protect against all significant adverse market deviations. In addition, Xcel Energy cannot fully assure that its controls will be effective against all potential risks, including, without limitation, employee misconduct. If such programs and procedures are not effective, Xcel Energy’s results of operations, financial condition or cash flows could be materially impacted.
Failure to attract and retain a qualified workforce could have an adverse effect on operations. In 2021, the competition for talent has become increasingly intense as a result of the ongoing “great resignation”, and we may experience increased employee turnover due to this tightening labor market. In addition, specialized knowledge is required of our technical employees for construction and operation of transmission, generation and distribution assets, which may pose additional difficulty for us as we work to recruit, retain and motivate employees in this climate. Failure to hire and adequately train replacement employees, including the transfer of significant internal historical knowledge and expertise to new employees or future availability and cost of contract labor may adversely affect the ability to manage and operate our business. Inability to attract and retain these employees could adversely impact our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. Our operations use third-party contractors in addition to employees to perform periodic and ongoing work. We rely on third-party contractors to perform operations, maintenance and construction work. Our contractual arrangements with these contractors typically include performance standards, progress payments, insurance requirements and security for performance. Poor vendor performance or contractor unavailability could impact ongoing operations, restoration operations, our reputation and could introduce financial risk or risks of fines. Our employees, directors, third-party contractors, or suppliers may violate or be perceived to violate our Codes of Conduct, which could have an adverse effect on our reputation. We are exposed to risk of employee or third-party contractor fraud or other misconduct. All employees and members of the Board of Directors are subject to comply with our Code of Conduct and are required to participate in annual training. Additionally, suppliers are subject to comply with our supplier Code of Conduct. Xcel Energy does not tolerate discrimination, violations of our Code of Conduct or other unacceptable behaviors. However, it is not always possible to identify and deter misconduct by employees and other third-parties, which may result in governmental investigations, other actions or lawsuits. If such actions are taken against us we may suffer loss of reputation and such actions could have a material effect on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. Our subsidiary, NSP-Minnesota, is subject to the risks of nuclear generation. NSP-Minnesota has two nuclear generation plants, PI and Monticello. Risks of nuclear generation include: •Hazards associated with the use of radioactive material in energy production, including management, handling, storage and disposal. •Limitations on insurance available to cover losses that may arise in connection with nuclear operations, as well as obligations to contribute to an insurance pool in the event of damages at a covered U.S. reactor. •Technological and financial uncertainties related to the costs of decommissioning nuclear plants may cause our funding obligations to change.
The NRC has authority to impose licensing and safety-related requirements for the operation of nuclear generation facilities, including the ability to impose fines and/or shut down a unit until compliance is achieved. NRC safety requirements could necessitate substantial capital expenditures or an increase in operating expenses. In addition, the INPO reviews NSP-Minnesota’s nuclear operations. Compliance with the INPO’s recommendations could result in substantial capital expenditures or a substantial increase in operating expenses. If a nuclear incident did occur, it could have a material impact on our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. Furthermore, non-compliance or the occurrence of a serious incident at other nuclear facilities could result in increased industry regulation, which may increase NSP-Minnesota’s compliance costs. Financial Risks Our profitability depends on the ability of our utility subsidiaries to recover their costs and changes in regulation may impair the ability of our utility subsidiaries to recover costs from their customers. We are subject to comprehensive regulation by federal and state utility regulatory agencies, including siting and construction of facilities, customer service and the rates that we can charge customers. The profitability of our utility operations is dependent on our ability to recover the costs of providing energy and utility services and earning a return on capital investment. Our rates are generally regulated and are based on an analysis of the utility’s costs incurred in a test year. The utility subsidiaries are subject to both future and historical test years depending upon the regulatory jurisdiction. Thus, the rates a utility is allowed to charge may or may not match its costs at any given time. Rate regulation is premised on providing an opportunity to earn a reasonable rate of return on invested capital. There can also be no assurance that our regulatory commissions will judge all the costs of our utility subsidiaries to be prudent, which could result in disallowances, or that the regulatory process will always result in rates that will produce full recovery. Overall, management believes prudently incurred costs are recoverable given the existing regulatory framework. However, there may be changes in the regulatory environment that could impair the ability of our utility subsidiaries to recover costs historically collected from customers, or these subsidiaries could exceed caps on capital costs required by commissions and result in less than full recovery. Changes in the long-term cost-effectiveness or to the operating conditions of our assets may result in early retirements of utility facilities. While regulation typically provides cost recovery relief for these types of changes, there is no assurance that regulators would allow full recovery of all remaining costs. Higher than expected inflation or tariffs may increase costs of construction and operations. Also, rising fuel costs could increase the risk that our utility subsidiaries will not be able to fully recover their fuel costs from their customers. Adverse regulatory rulings or the imposition of additional regulations could have an adverse impact on our results of operations and materially affect our ability to meet our financial obligations, including debt payments and the payment of dividends on common stock.
Any reductions in our credit ratings could increase our financing costs and the cost of maintaining certain contractual relationships. We cannot be assured that our current credit ratings or our subsidiaries’ ratings will remain in effect, or that a rating will not be lowered or withdrawn by a rating agency. Significant events including disallowance of costs, use of historic test years, elimination of riders or interim rates, increasing depreciation lives, lower returns on equity, changes to equity ratios and impacts of tax policy may impact our cash flows and credit metrics, potentially resulting in a change in our credit ratings. In addition, our credit ratings may change as a result of the differing methodologies or change in the methodologies used by the various rating agencies. Any credit ratings downgrade could lead to higher borrowing costs or lower proceeds from equity issuances. It could also impact our ability to access capital markets. Also, our utility subsidiaries may enter into contracts that require posting of collateral or settlement if credit ratings fall below investment grade. We are subject to capital market and interest rate risks. Utility operations require significant capital investment. As a result, we frequently need to access capital markets. Any disruption in capital markets could have a material impact on our ability to fund our operations. Capital market disruption and financial market distress could prevent us from issuing short-term commercial paper, issuing new securities or cause us to issue securities with unfavorable terms and conditions, such as higher interest rates or lower proceeds from equity issuances. Higher interest rates on short-term borrowings with variable interest rates could also have an adverse effect on our operating results. The performance of capital markets impacts the value of assets held in trusts to satisfy future obligations to decommission NSP-Minnesota’s nuclear plants and satisfy our defined benefit pension and postretirement benefit plan obligations. These assets are subject to market fluctuations and yield uncertain returns, which may fall below expected returns. A decline in the market value of these assets may increase funding requirements. Additionally, the fair value of the debt securities held in the nuclear decommissioning and/or pension trusts may be impacted by changes in interest rates. We are subject to credit risks. Credit risk includes the risk that our customers will not pay their bills, which may lead to a reduction in liquidity and an increase in bad debt expense. Credit risk is comprised of numerous factors including the price of products and services provided, the economy and unemployment rates. Credit risk also includes the risk that counterparties that owe us money or product will become insolvent and may breach their obligations. Should the counterparties fail to perform, we may be forced to enter into alternative arrangements. In that event, our financial results could be adversely affected and incur losses. Xcel Energy may have direct credit exposure in our short-term wholesale and commodity trading activity to financial institutions trading for their own accounts or issuing collateral support on behalf of other counterparties. We may also have some indirect credit exposure due to participation in organized markets, (e.g., California Independent System Operator, SPP, PJM Interconnection, LLC, MISO and Electric Reliability Council of Texas), in which any credit losses are socialized to all market participants.
We have additional indirect credit exposure to financial institutions from letters of credit provided as security by power suppliers under various purchased power contracts. If any of the credit ratings of the letter of credit issuers were to drop below investment grade, the supplier would need to replace that security with an acceptable substitute. If the security were not replaced, the party could be in default under the contract. Increasing costs of our defined benefit retirement plans and employee benefits may adversely affect our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. We have defined benefit pension and postretirement plans that cover most of our employees. Assumptions related to future costs, return on investments, interest rates and other actuarial assumptions have a significant impact on our funding requirements of these plans. Estimates and assumptions may change. In addition, the Pension Protection Act sets the minimum funding requirements for defined benefit pension plans. Therefore, our funding requirements and contributions may change in the future. Also, the payout of a significant percentage of pension plan liabilities in a single year, due to high numbers of retirements or employees leaving, would trigger settlement accounting and could require Xcel Energy to recognize incremental pension expense related to unrecognized plan losses in the year liabilities are paid. Changes in industry standards utilized in key assumptions (e.g., mortality tables) could have a significant impact on future obligations and benefit costs. Increasing costs associated with health care plans may adversely affect our results of operations. Increasing levels of large individual health care claims and overall health care claims could have an adverse impact on our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. Health care legislation could also significantly impact our benefit programs and costs. We must rely on cash from our subsidiaries to make dividend payments. Investments in our subsidiaries are our primary assets. Substantially all of our operations are conducted by our subsidiaries. Consequently, our operating cash flow and ability to service our debt and pay dividends depends upon the operating cash flows of our subsidiaries and their payment of dividends. Our subsidiaries are separate legal entities that have no obligation to pay any amounts due pursuant to our obligations or to make any funds available for dividends on our common stock. In addition, each subsidiary’s ability to pay dividends depends on statutory and/or contractual restrictions which may include requirements to maintain minimum levels of equity ratios, working capital or assets. If the utility subsidiaries were to cease making dividend payments, our ability to pay dividends on our common stock or otherwise meet our financial obligations could be adversely affected. Our utility subsidiaries are regulated by state utility commissions, which possess broad powers to ensure that the needs of the utility customers are met. We may be negatively impacted by the actions of state commissions that limit the payment of dividends by our utility subsidiaries.
Federal tax law may significantly impact our business. Our utility subsidiaries collect estimated federal, state and local tax payments through their regulated rates. Changes to federal tax law may benefit or adversely affect our earnings and customer costs. Tax depreciable lives and the value/availability of various tax credits or the timeliness of their utilization may impact the economics or selection of resources. If tax rates are increased, there could be timing delays before regulated rates provide for recovery of such tax increases in revenues. In addition, certain IRS tax policies, such as tax normalization, may impact our ability to economically deliver certain types of resources relative to market prices. Macroeconomic Risks Economic conditions impact our business. Xcel Energy’s operations are affected by local, national and worldwide economic conditions, which correlates to customers/sales growth (decline). Economic conditions may be impacted by insufficient financial sector liquidity leading to potential increased unemployment, which may impact customers’ ability to pay their bills, which could lead to additional bad debt expense. Our utility subsidiaries face competitive factors, which could have an adverse impact on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. Further, worldwide economic activity impacts the demand for basic commodities necessary for utility infrastructure, which may inhibit our ability to acquire sufficient supplies. We operate in a capital-intensive industry and federal trade policy could significantly impact the cost of materials we use. There may be delays before these additional material costs can be recovered in rates. We face risks related to health epidemics and other outbreaks, which may have a material effect on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. The global outbreak of COVID-19 continues to impact countries, communities, supply chains and markets. A high degree of uncertainty continues to exist regarding the pandemic; the duration and magnitude of business restrictions (domestically and globally); the potential shortages of employees and third-party contractors due to quarantine policies, vaccination requirements or government restrictions; re-shutdowns, if any, and the level and pace of economic recovery. Xcel Energy has experienced and may continue to experience sales volatility and shifts between residential and C&I sales as a result of COVID-19. Xcel Energy has a decoupling mechanism in Colorado for residential and non-demand small C&I electric customer classes. In Minnesota, Xcel Energy has historically had a sales true-up mechanism for all electric customer classes which has ended in 2021. We are requesting implementation of a new sales true-up mechanism for 2022 - 2024. These mechanisms mitigate the impact of changes to sales levels as compared to a baseline. Although the financial impact of the pandemic on our financial results has largely been mitigated, we cannot ultimately predict whether it will have a material impact on our future liquidity, financial condition or results of operations. Nor can we predict the impact of the virus on the health of our employees, our supply chain or our ability to recover higher costs associated with managing through the pandemic. The impact of COVID-19 may exacerbate other risks discussed herein, which could have a material effect on us. The situation is evolving and additional impacts may arise.
Operations could be impacted by war, terrorism or other events. Our generation plants, fuel storage facilities, transmission and distribution facilities and information and control systems may be targets of terrorist activities. Any disruption could impact operations or result in a decrease in revenues and additional costs to repair and insure our assets. These disruptions could have a material impact on our financial condition, results of operations or cash flows. The potential for terrorism has subjected our operations to increased risks and could have a material effect on our business. We have already incurred increased costs for security and capital expenditures in response to these risks. The insurance industry has also been affected by these events and the availability of insurance may decrease. In addition, insurance may have higher deductibles, higher premiums and more restrictive policy terms. A disruption of the regional electric transmission grid, interstate natural gas pipeline infrastructure or other fuel sources, could negatively impact our business, brand and reputation. Because our facilities are part of an interconnected system, we face the risk of possible loss of business due to a disruption caused by the actions of a neighboring utility. We also face the risks of possible loss of business due to significant events such as severe storms, severe temperature extremes, wildfires (particularly in Colorado), widespread pandemic, generator or transmission facility outage, pipeline rupture, railroad disruption, operator error, sudden and significant increase or decrease in wind generation or a workforce disruption. In addition, major catastrophic events throughout the world may disrupt our business. Xcel Energy participates in a global supply chain, which includes materials and components that are globally sourced. A prolonged disruption could result in the delay of equipment and materials that may impact our ability to reliably serve our customers. A major disruption could result in a significant decrease in revenues and additional costs to repair assets, which could have a material impact on our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. Xcel Energy participates in GridEx, which is the largest grid security exercise in North America. These efforts, led by the NERC, test and further develop the coordination, threat sharing and interaction between utilities and various government agencies relative to potential cyber and physical threats against the nation’s electric grid. A cyber incident or security breach could have a material effect on our business. We operate in an industry that requires the continued operation of sophisticated information technology, control systems and network infrastructure. In addition, we use our systems and infrastructure to create, collect, use, disclose, store, dispose of and otherwise process sensitive information, including company data, customer energy usage data, and personal information regarding customers, employees and their dependents, contractors, shareholders and other individuals. Xcel Energy’s generation, transmission, distribution and fuel storage facilities, information technology systems and other infrastructure or physical assets as well as information processed in our systems (e.g., information regarding our customers, employees, operations, infrastructure and assets) could be affected by cyber security incidents, including those caused by human error.
The utility industry has been the target of several attacks on operational systems and has seen an increased volume and sophistication of cyber security incidents from international activist organizations, Nation States and individuals. During the normal course of business, we have experienced and expect to continue to experience attempts to compromise our information technology and control systems, network infrastructure and other assets. To date, no cybersecurity incident or attack has had a material impact on our business or results of operation. Cyber security incidents could harm our businesses by limiting our generating, transmitting and distributing capabilities, delaying our development and construction of new facilities or capital improvement projects to existing facilities, disrupting our customer operations or causing the release of customer information, all of which would likely receive state and federal regulatory scrutiny and could expose us to liability. Xcel Energy’s generation, transmission systems and natural gas pipelines are part of an interconnected system. Therefore, a disruption caused by the impact of a cyber security incident of the regional electric transmission grid, natural gas pipeline infrastructure or other fuel sources of our third-party service providers’ operations, could also negatively impact our business. Our supply chain for procurement of digital equipment and services may expose software or hardware to these risks and could result in a breach or significant costs of remediation. We are unable to quantify the potential impact of cyber security threats or subsequent related actions. Cyber security incidents and regulatory action could result in a material decrease in revenues and may cause significant additional costs (e.g., penalties, third-party claims, repairs, insurance or compliance) and potentially disrupt our supply and markets for natural gas, oil and other fuels. We maintain security measures to protect our information technology and control systems, network infrastructure and other assets. However, these assets and the information they process may be vulnerable to cyber security incidents, including asset failure or unauthorized access to assets or information. A failure or breach of our technology systems or those of our third-party service providers could disrupt critical business functions and may negatively impact our business, our brand, and our reputation. The cyber security threat is dynamic and evolves continually, and our efforts to prioritize network protection may not be effective given the constant changes to threat vulnerability. Our operating results may fluctuate on a seasonal and quarterly basis and can be adversely affected by milder weather. Our electric and natural gas utility businesses are seasonal and weather patterns can have a material impact on our operating performance. Demand for electricity is often greater in the summer and winter months associated with cooling and heating. Because natural gas is heavily used for residential and commercial heating, the demand depends heavily upon weather patterns. A significant amount of natural gas revenues are recognized in the first and fourth quarters related to the heating season. Accordingly, our operations have historically generated less revenues and income when weather conditions are milder in the winter and cooler in the summer. Unusually mild winters and summers could have an adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations or cash flows.
Public Policy Risks We may be subject to legislative and regulatory responses to climate change, with which compliance could be difficult and costly. Legislative and regulatory responses related to climate change may create financial risk as our facilities may be subject to additional regulation at either the state or federal level in the future. International agreements could additionally lead to future federal or state regulations. In 2015, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change reached consensus among 190 nations on an agreement (the Paris Agreement) that establishes a framework for GHG mitigation actions by all countries, with a goal of holding the increase in global average temperature to below 2º Celsius above pre-industrial levels and an aspiration to limit the increase to 1.5º Celsius. In April 2021, ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, the Biden Administration committed the U.S. to a Nationally Determined Contribution of 50-52% net GHG emissions reduction economy-wide from 2005 levels. This commitment and other agreements made in Glasgow could result in future additional GHG reductions in the United States. In addition, the Biden Administration has announced plans to implement new climate change programs, including potential regulation of GHG emissions targeting the utility industry. Many states and localities continue to pursue their own climate policies. The steps Xcel Energy has taken to date to reduce GHG emissions, including energy efficiency measures, adding renewable generation or retiring or converting coal plants to natural gas, occurred under state-endorsed resource plans, renewable energy standards and other state policies. We may be subject to climate change lawsuits. An adverse outcome could require substantial capital expenditures and possibly require payment of substantial penalties or damages. Defense costs associated with such litigation can also be significant and could affect results of operations, financial condition or cash flows if such costs are not recovered through regulated rates. If our regulators do not allow us to recover all or a part of the cost of capital investment or the O&M costs incurred to comply with the mandates, it could have a material effect on our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. Increased risks of regulatory penalties could negatively impact our business. The Energy Act increased civil penalty authority for violation of FERC statutes, rules and orders. The FERC can impose penalties of up to $1.3 million per violation per day, particularly as it relates to energy trading activities for both electricity and natural gas. In addition, NERC electric reliability standards and critical infrastructure protection requirements are mandatory and subject to potential financial penalties. Also, the PHMSA, Occupational Safety and Health Administration and other federal agencies have the authority to assess penalties. In the event of serious incidents, these agencies may pursue penalties. In addition, certain states have the authority to impose substantial penalties. If a serious reliability, cyber or safety incident did occur, it could have a material effect on our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows.
The continued use of natural gas for both power generation and gas distribution have increasingly become a public policy advocacy target. These efforts may result in a limitation of natural gas as an energy source for both power generation and heating, which could impact our ability to reliably and affordably serve our customers. In recent years, there have been various local and state agency proposals within and outside our service territories that would attempt to restrict the use and availability of natural gas. If such policies were to prevail, we may be forced to make new resource investment decisions which could potentially result in stranded costs if we are not able to fully recover costs and investments and impact the overall reliability of our service. Environmental Risks We are subject to environmental laws and regulations, with which compliance could be difficult and costly. We are subject to environmental laws and regulations that affect many aspects of our operations, including air emissions, water quality, wastewater discharges and the generation, transport and disposal of solid wastes and hazardous substances. Laws and regulations require us to obtain permits, licenses, and approvals and to comply with a variety of environmental requirements. Environmental laws and regulations can also require us to restrict or limit the output of facilities or the use of certain fuels, shift generation to lower-emitting facilities, install pollution control equipment, clean up spills and other contamination and correct environmental hazards. Failure to meet requirements of environmental mandates may result in fines or penalties. We may be required to pay all or a portion of the cost to remediate sites where our past activities, or the activities of other parties, caused environmental contamination. Changes in environmental policies and regulations or regulatory decisions may result in early retirements of our generation facilities. While regulation typically provides relief for these types of changes, there is no assurance that regulators would allow full recovery of all remaining costs. We are subject to mandates to provide customers with clean energy, renewable energy and energy conservation offerings. It could have a material effect on our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows if our regulators do not allow us to recover the cost of capital investment or O&M costs incurred to comply with the requirements. In addition, existing environmental laws or regulations may be revised and new laws or regulations may be adopted. We may also incur additional unanticipated obligations or liabilities under existing environmental laws and regulations. We are subject to physical and financial risks associated with climate change and other weather, natural disaster and resource depletion impacts. Climate change can create physical and financial risk. Physical risks include changes in weather conditions and extreme weather events. Our customers’ energy needs vary with weather. To the extent weather conditions are affected by climate change, customers’ energy use could increase or decrease. Increased energy use due to weather changes may require us to invest in generating assets, transmission and infrastructure. Decreased energy use due to weather changes may result in decreased revenues.
Climate change may impact the economy, which could impact our sales and revenues. The price of energy has an impact on the economic health of our communities. The cost of additional regulatory requirements, such as regulation of GHG, could impact the availability of goods and prices charged by our suppliers which would normally be borne by consumers through higher prices for energy and purchased goods. To the extent financial markets view climate change and emissions of GHGs as a financial risk, this could negatively affect our ability to access capital markets or cause us to receive less than ideal terms and conditions. We have committed to a number of long-term climate change goals, which in part are dependent on future technologies not currently in existence. Given the long-term nature of these goals, there is an inherent uncertainty due to internal and external factors regarding our ability to achieve our stated climate change goals. To the extent climate change goals are not met, this could negatively impact our reputation and potentially result in financial risk. Severe weather impacts our service territories, primarily when thunderstorms, flooding, tornadoes, wildfires and snow or ice storms occur. Extreme weather conditions in general require system backup and can contribute to increased system stress, including service interruptions. Extreme weather conditions creating high energy demand may raise electricity prices, increasing the cost of energy we provide to our customers. To the extent the frequency of extreme weather events increases, this could increase our cost of providing service. Periods of extreme temperatures could impact our ability to meet demand. Changes in precipitation resulting in droughts or water shortages could adversely affect our operations. Drought conditions also contribute to the increase in wildfire risk from our electric generation facilities. While we carry liability insurance, given an extreme event, if Xcel Energy was found to be liable for wildfire damages, amounts that potentially exceed our coverage could negatively impact our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. Drought or water depletion could adversely impact our ability to provide electricity to customers, cause early retirement of power plants and increase the cost for energy. Adverse events may result in increased insurance costs and/or decreased insurance availability. We may not recover all costs related to mitigating these physical and financial risks.
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Item 1A - Risk Factors Xcel Energy is subject to a variety of risks, many of which are beyond our control. Important risks that may adversely affect the business, financial condition and results of operations are further described below. These risks should be carefully considered together with the other information set forth in this report and in future reports that Xcel Energy files with the SEC. Oversight of Risk and Related Processes A key accountability of the Board of Directors is the oversight of material risk, and our Board of Directors employs an effective process for doing so. Management and each Board of Directors’ committee have responsibility for overseeing the identification and mitigation of key risks and reporting its assessments and activities to the full Board of Directors. Management identifies and analyzes risks to determine materiality and other attributes such as timing, probability and controllability. Management broadly considers our business, the utility industry, the domestic and global economies and the environment when identifying, assessing, managing and mitigating risk. Identification and analysis occurs formally through a key risk assessment process conducted by senior management, the financial disclosure process, the hazard risk management process and internal auditing and compliance with financial and operational controls. Management also identifies and analyzes risk through its business planning process and development of goals and key performance indicators, which include risk identification to determine barriers to implementing Xcel Energy’s strategy. The business planning process also identifies areas in which there is a potential for a business area to take inappropriate risk to meet goals, and determines how to prevent inappropriate risk-taking. At a threshold level, Xcel Energy has developed a robust compliance program and promotes a culture of compliance, including tone at the top, which mitigates risk. The process for risk mitigation includes adherence to our code of conduct and other compliance policies, operation of formal risk management structures and groups and overall business management to mitigate the risks inherent in the implementation of strategy. Building on this culture of compliance, Xcel Energy manages and further mitigates risks through operation of formal risk management structures and groups, including management councils, risk committees and the services of internal corporate areas such as internal audit, the corporate controller and legal services. Management communicates regularly with the Board of Directors and key stakeholders regarding risk. Senior management presents a periodic assessment of key risks to the Board of Directors. The presentation and the discussion of the key risks provides the Board of Directors with information on the risks management believes are material, including the earnings impact, timing, likelihood and controllability. Management also provides information to the Board of Directors in presentations and communications over the course of the year. The Board of Directors approaches oversight, management and mitigation of risk as an integral and continuous part of its governance of Xcel Energy. First, the Board of Directors regularly reviews management’s key risk assessment and analyzes areas of existing and future risks and opportunities. In addition, the Board of Directors assigns oversight of certain critical risks to each of its four standing committees to ensure these risks are well understood and are given focused oversight by the appropriate committee. The Audit Committee is responsible for reviewing the adequacy of risk oversight and affirming that appropriate oversight occurs. New risks are considered and assigned as appropriate during the annual Board of Directors’ and committee evaluation process, and committee charters and annual work plans are updated accordingly. Committees regularly report on their oversight activities and certain risk issues may be brought to the full Board of Directors for consideration where deemed appropriate to ensure broad Board of Directors’ understanding of the nature of the risk. Finally, the Board of Directors conducts an annual strategy session where Xcel Energy’s future plans and initiatives are reviewed. Risks Associated with Our Business Environmental Risks We are subject to environmental laws and regulations, with which compliance could be difficult and costly. We are subject to environmental laws and regulations that affect many aspects of our past, present and future operations, including air emissions, water quality, wastewater discharges and the generation, transport and disposal of solid wastes and hazardous substances. These laws and regulations require us to obtain permits, licenses, and other approvals and to comply with a wide variety of environmental requirements including those for protected natural and cultural resources (such as wetlands, endangered species and other protected wildlife, and archaeological and historical resources). Environmental laws and regulations can also require us to restrict or limit the output of certain facilities or the use of certain fuels, shift generation to lower-emitting, but potentially more costly facilities, install pollution control equipment at our facilities, clean up spills and other contamination and correct environmental hazards. Environmental regulations may also lead to shutdown of existing facilities, either due to the difficulty in assuring compliance or that the costs of compliance makes operation of the units no longer economical. Both public officials and private individuals may seek to enforce the applicable environmental laws and regulations against us. We may be required to pay all or a portion of the cost to remediate (i.e., clean-up) sites where our past activities, or the activities of certain other parties, caused environmental contamination. We are also subject to mandates to provide customers with clean energy, renewable energy and energy conservation offerings. Failure to meet the requirements of these mandates may result in fines or penalties, which could have a material effect on our results of operations. If our regulators do not allow us to recover all or a part of the cost of capital investment or the O&M costs incurred to comply with the mandates or other environmental requirements, it could have a material effect on our results of operations, financial position or cash flows. In addition, existing environmental laws or regulations may be revised, and new laws or regulations may be adopted or become applicable to us, including but not limited to, regulation of mercury, NOx, SO2, CO2 and other GHGs, particulates, cooling water intakes, water discharges and ash management. We may also incur additional unanticipated obligations or liabilities under existing environmental laws and regulations. We are subject to physical and financial risks associated with climate change and other weather, natural disaster and resource depletion impacts. Climate change can create physical and financial risk. Physical risks from climate change can include changes in weather conditions, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events. Our customers’ energy needs vary with weather conditions, primarily temperature and humidity. For residential customers, heating and cooling represent their largest energy use. To the extent weather conditions are affected by climate change, customers’ energy use could increase or decrease. Increased energy use due to weather changes may require us to invest in additional generating assets, transmission and other infrastructure to serve increased load. Decreased energy use due to weather changes may result in decreased revenues. Extreme weather conditions in general require more system backup, adding to costs, and can contribute to increased system stress, including service interruptions. Weather conditions could also have an impact on our revenues. We buy and sell electricity depending upon system needs and market opportunities. Extreme weather conditions creating high energy demand may raise electricity prices, which would increase the cost of energy we provide to our customers. Severe weather impacts our service territories, primarily when thunderstorms and associated flooding, tornadoes, wildfires and snow or ice storms occur. To the extent the frequency of extreme weather events increases, this could increase our cost of providing service. Changes in precipitation resulting in droughts or water shortages, whether caused by climate change or otherwise, could adversely affect our operations, principally our fossil generating units. A negative impact to water supplies due to long-term drought or water depletion conditions could adversely impact our ability to provide electricity to customers, as well as increase the price they pay for energy. We may not recover all costs related to mitigating these physical and financial risks. Climate change may impact a region’s economic health, which could impact our revenues. Our financial performance is tied to the health of the regional economies we serve. The price of energy has an impact on the economic health of our communities. The cost of additional regulatory requirements, such as regulation of GHG or additional environmental regulation could impact the availability of goods and prices charged by our suppliers which would normally be borne by consumers through higher prices for energy and purchased goods. To the extent financial markets view climate change and emissions of GHGs as a financial risk, this could negatively affect our ability to access capital markets or cause us to receive less than ideal terms and conditions. Financial Risks Our profitability depends in part on the ability of our utility subsidiaries to recover their costs from their customers and there may be changes in circumstances or in the regulatory environment that impair the ability of our utility subsidiaries to recover costs from their customers. We are subject to comprehensive regulation by federal and state utility regulatory agencies. The utility commissions in the states where we operate regulate many aspects of our utility operations, including siting and construction of facilities, customer service and the rates that we can charge customers. The FERC has jurisdiction, among other things, over wholesale rates for electric transmission service, the sale of electric energy in interstate commerce and certain natural gas transactions in interstate commerce. The profitability of our utility operations is dependent on our ability to recover the costs of providing energy and utility services to our customers and earn a return on our capital investment. Our utility subsidiaries provide service at rates approved by one or more regulatory commissions. These rates are generally regulated and based on an analysis of the utility’s costs incurred in a test year. Our utility subsidiaries are subject to both future and historical test years depending upon the regulatory mechanisms approved in each jurisdiction. Thus, the rates a utility is allowed to charge may or may not match its costs at any given time. While rate regulation is premised on providing an opportunity to earn a reasonable rate of return on invested capital, in a continued low interest rate environment there has been pressure pushing down ROE. There can also be no assurance that the applicable regulatory commission will judge all the costs of our utility subsidiaries to have been prudent, which could result in cost disallowances, or that the regulatory process in which rates are determined will always result in rates that will produce full recovery of such costs. Changes in the long-term cost-effectiveness or changes to the operating conditions of our assets may result in early retirements and while regulation typically provides relief for these types of changes, there is no assurance that regulators would allow full recovery of all remaining costs leaving all or a portion of these asset costs stranded. Higher than expected inflation may increase costs of construction and operations. Rising fuel costs could increase the risk that our utility subsidiaries will not be able to fully recover their fuel costs from their customers. Furthermore, there could be changes in the regulatory environment that would impair the ability of our utility subsidiaries to recover costs historically collected from their customers, or these factors could cause the operating utilities to exceed commitments made regarding cost caps and result in less than full recovery. Overall, management currently believes prudently incurred costs are generally recoverable given the existing regulatory mechanisms in place. Adverse regulatory rulings or the imposition of additional regulations could have an adverse impact on our results of operations and hence could materially and adversely affect our ability to meet our financial obligations, including debt payments and the payment of dividends on our common stock. Any reductions in our credit ratings could increase our financing costs and the cost of maintaining certain contractual relationships. We cannot be assured that any of our current ratings or our subsidiaries’ ratings will remain in effect for any given period of time, or that a rating will not be lowered or withdrawn entirely by a rating agency. Significant events including a major disallowance of costs, significantly lower returns on equity or equity ratios or impacts of tax policy changes, among others, may impact our cash flows and credit metrics, potentially resulting in a change in our credit ratings. In addition, our credit ratings may change as a result of the differing methodologies or change in the methodologies used by the various rating agencies. Any downgrade could lead to higher borrowing costs and could impact our ability to access capital markets. Also, our utility subsidiaries may enter into certain procurement and derivative contracts that require the posting of collateral or settlement of applicable contracts if credit ratings fall below investment grade. We are subject to capital market and interest rate risks. Utility operations require significant capital investment. As a result, we frequently need to access capital markets. Any disruption in capital markets could have a material impact on our ability to fund our operations. Capital markets are global in nature and are impacted by numerous issues and events throughout the world economy. Capital market disruption events and resulting broad financial market distress could prevent us from issuing short-term commercial paper, issuing new securities or cause us to issue securities with less than ideal terms and conditions, such as higher interest rates. Higher interest rates on short-term borrowings with variable interest rates could also have an adverse effect on our operating results. Changes in interest rates may also impact the fair value of the debt securities in the nuclear decommissioning fund and master pension trust, as well as our ability to earn a return on short-term investments of excess cash. We are subject to credit risks. Credit risk includes the risk that our customers will not pay their bills, which may lead to a reduction in liquidity and an increase in bad debt expense. Credit risk is comprised of numerous factors including the price of products and services provided, the overall economy and local economies in the geographic areas we serve, including local unemployment rates. Credit risk also includes the risk that various counterparties that owe us money or product will become insolvent and/or breach their obligations. Should the counterparties to these arrangements fail to perform, we may be forced to enter into alternative arrangements. In that event, our financial results could be adversely affected and we could incur losses. We may at times have direct credit exposure in our short-term wholesale and commodity trading activity to various financial institutions trading for their own accounts or issuing collateral support on behalf of other counterparties. We may also have some indirect credit exposure due to participation in organized markets, such as CAISO, SPP, PJM, MISO and ERCOT, in which any credit losses are socialized to all market participants. We do have additional indirect credit exposures to various domestic and foreign financial institutions in the form of letters of credit provided as security by power suppliers under various long-term physical purchased power contracts. If any of the credit ratings of the letter of credit issuers were to drop below the designated investment grade rating stipulated in the underlying long-term purchased power contracts, the supplier would need to replace that security with an acceptable substitute. If the security were not replaced, the party could be in technical default under the contract, which would enable us to exercise our contractual rights. Increasing costs associated with our defined benefit retirement plans and other employee benefits may adversely affect our results of operations, financial position or liquidity. We have defined benefit pension and postretirement plans that cover most of our employees. Assumptions related to future costs, return on investments, interest rates and other actuarial assumptions, including mortality tables, have a significant impact on our funding requirements related to these plans. These estimates and assumptions may change based on economic conditions, actual stock and bond market performance, changes in interest rates and changes in governmental regulations. In addition, the Pension Protection Act of 2006 changed the minimum funding requirements for defined benefit pension plans with modifications that allowed additional flexibility in the timing of contributions. Therefore, our funding requirements and related contributions may change in the future. Also, the payout of a significant percentage of pension plan liabilities in a single year due to high retirements or employees leaving Xcel Energy could trigger settlement accounting and could require Xcel Energy to recognize material incremental pension expense related to unrecognized plan losses in the year these liabilities are paid. Increasing costs associated with health care plans may adversely affect our results of operations. Our self-insured costs of health care benefits for eligible employees have increased in recent years. Increasing levels of large individual health care claims and overall health care claims could have an adverse impact on our operating results, financial position and liquidity. We believe that our employee benefit costs, including costs related to health care plans for our employees and former employees, will continue to rise. Changes in industry standards utilized by management in key assumptions (e.g., mortality tables) could have a significant impact on future liabilities and benefit costs. Legislation related to health care could also significantly change our benefit programs and costs. We must rely on cash from our subsidiaries to make dividend payments. We are a holding company and our investments in our subsidiaries are our primary assets. Substantially all of our operations are conducted by our subsidiaries. Consequently, our operating cash flow and our ability to service our indebtedness and pay dividends depends upon the operating cash flows of our subsidiaries and the payment of dividends to us. Our subsidiaries are separate legal entities that have no obligation to pay any amounts due pursuant to our obligations or to make any funds available for dividends on our common stock. In addition, each subsidiary’s ability to pay dividends to us depends on any statutory and/or contractual restrictions which may include requirements to maintain minimum levels of equity ratios, working capital or assets. Also, our utility subsidiaries are regulated by various state utility commissions, which possess broad powers to ensure that the needs of the utility customers are being met. If our utility subsidiaries were to cease making dividend payments, our ability to pay dividends on our common stock or otherwise meet our financial obligations could be adversely affected. Federal tax law may significantly impact our business. Xcel Energy’s utility subsidiaries collect through regulated rates its estimated federal, state and local tax payments. There are a number of provisions in federal tax law designed to incentivize capital investments which have benefited our customers by keeping our utility subsidiaries’ rates lower than rates calculated without such provisions. Examples include the use of accelerated depreciation for most of our capital investments, PTCs for wind energy, ITCs for solar energy and R&E tax credits and deductions. Changes to federal tax law may benefit or adversely affect our earnings and customer costs. Changes to tax depreciable lives and the value of various tax credits could change the economics of resources and our resource selections. While regulation allows us to incorporate changes in tax law into the rate-setting process, there could be timing delays before regulated rates provide for realization of the tax changes in revenues. In addition, certain IRS tax policies such as the requirement to utilize normalization may impact our ability to economically deliver certain types of resources relative to market prices. Operational Risks Our natural gas and electric transmission and distribution operations involve numerous risks that may result in accidents and other operating risks and costs. Our natural gas transmission and distribution activities include a variety of inherent hazards and operating risks, such as leaks, explosions and mechanical problems, which could cause substantial financial losses. Our electric transmission and distribution activities also include inherent hazards and operating risks such as contact, fire and widespread outages which could cause substantial financial losses. In addition, these natural gas and electric risks could result in loss of human life, significant damage to property, environmental pollution, impairment of our operations and substantial losses to us. We maintain insurance against some, but not all, of these risks and losses. The occurrence of any of these events not fully covered by insurance could have a material effect on our financial position and results of operations. For our natural gas transmission or distribution lines located near populated areas, the level of potential damages resulting from these risks is greater. Additionally, for natural gas the operating or other costs that may be required in order to comply with potential new regulations, including the Pipeline Safety Act, could be significant. The Pipeline Safety Act requires verification of pipeline infrastructure records by pipeline owners and operators to confirm the maximum allowable operating pressure of lines located in high consequence areas or more-densely populated areas. We have programs in place to comply with the Pipeline Safety Act and for systematic infrastructure monitoring and renewal over time. A significant incident could increase regulatory scrutiny and result in penalties and higher costs of operations. Our utility operations are subject to long-term planning risks. Most electric utility investments are long-lived and are planned to be used for decades. Transmission and generation investments typically have long lead times, and therefore are planned well in advance of when they are brought in-service subject to long-term resource plans. These plans are based on numerous assumptions over the planning horizon such as: sales growth, customer usage, commodity prices, economic activity, costs, regulatory mechanisms, customer behavior, available technology and public policy. The electric utility sector is undergoing a period of significant change. For example, public policy has driven increases in appliance and lighting efficiency and energy efficient buildings, wider adoption and lower cost of renewable generation and distributed generation, including community solar gardens and customer-sited solar, shifts away from coal generation to decrease CO2 emissions and increasing use of natural gas in electric generation driven by lower natural gas prices. Over time, customer adoption of these technologies and increased energy efficiency could result in excess transmission and generation resources as well as stranded costs if Xcel Energy is not able to fully recover the costs and investments. These changes also introduce additional uncertainty into long-term planning which gives rise to a risk that the magnitude and timing of resource additions and growth in customer demand may not coincide, and that the preference for the types of additions may change from planning to execution. In addition, we are also subject to longer-term availability of the natural resource inputs such as coal, natural gas, uranium and water to cool our facilities. Lack of availability of these resources could jeopardize long-term operations of our facilities or make them uneconomic to operate. The resource plans reviewed and approved by our state regulators assume continuation of the traditional utility cost of service model under which utility costs are recovered from customers as they receive the benefit of service. Xcel Energy is engaged in significant and ongoing infrastructure investment programs to accommodate renewable distributed generation and to maintain high system reliability. Changing customer expectations and changing technologies are requiring significant investments in advanced grid infrastructure. This also increases the exposure to potential outdating of technologies and the resultant risks. Xcel Energy is also investing in renewable and natural gas-fired generation to reduce our CO2 emissions profile. The inability of coal mining companies to attract capital could disrupt longer-term supplies. Early plant retirements that may result from these changes could expose us to premature financial obligations, which could result in less than full recovery of all remaining costs. Both decreasing use per customer driven by appliance and lighting efficiency and the availability of cost-effective distributed generation puts downward pressure on load growth. This could lead to under recovery of costs, excess resources to meet customer demand and increases in electric rates. Finally, multiple states served by a single system may not agree as to the appropriate resource mix and the differing views may lead to costs incurred to comply with one jurisdiction that are not recoverable across all of the jurisdictions served by the same assets. Our subsidiary, NSP-Minnesota, is subject to the risks of nuclear generation. NSP-Minnesota’s two nuclear stations, PI and Monticello, subject it to the risks of nuclear generation, which include: • The risks associated with use of radioactive material in the production of energy, the management, handling, storage and disposal and the current lack of a long-term disposal solution for radioactive materials; • Limitations on the amounts and types of insurance available to cover losses that might arise in connection with nuclear operations, as well as obligations to contribute to an insurance pool in the event of damages at a covered U.S. reactor; and • Uncertainties with respect to the technological and financial aspects of decommissioning nuclear plants at the end of their licensed lives. For example, similar to pensions, interest rate and other assumptions regarding decommissioning costs may change based on economic conditions and changes in the expected life of the asset may cause our funding obligations to change. The NRC has authority to impose licensing and safety-related requirements for the operation of nuclear generation facilities. In the event of non-compliance, the NRC has the authority to impose fines and/or shut down a unit until compliance is achieved. Revised NRC safety requirements could necessitate substantial capital expenditures or a substantial increase in operating expenses. In addition, the Institute for Nuclear Power Operations reviews NSP-Minnesota’s nuclear operations and nuclear generation facilities. Compliance with the Institute for Nuclear Power Operations’ recommendations could result in substantial capital expenditures or a substantial increase in operating expenses. If an incident did occur, it could have a material effect on our results of operations or financial condition. Furthermore, the non-compliance of other nuclear facilities operators or the occurrence of a serious nuclear incident at other facilities could result in increased regulation of the industry, which could then increase NSP-Minnesota’s compliance costs and impact the results of operations of its facilities. NSP-Wisconsin’s production and transmission system is operated on an integrated basis with NSP-Minnesota’s production and transmission system, and NSP-Wisconsin may be subject to risks associated with NSP-Minnesota’s nuclear generation. We are subject to commodity risks and other risks associated with energy markets and energy production. We engage in wholesale sales and purchases of electric capacity, energy and energy-related products as well as natural gas. In many markets in which we operate, emission allowances and/or renewable energy credits are also needed to comply with various statutes and commission rulings associated with energy transactions. As a result we are subject to market supply and commodity price risk. Commodity price changes can affect the value of our commodity trading derivatives. We mark certain derivatives to estimated fair market value on a daily basis (mark-to-market accounting). Actual settlements can vary significantly from estimated fair values recorded, and significant changes from the assumptions underlying our fair value estimates could cause earnings variability. If we encounter market supply shortages or our suppliers are otherwise unable to meet their contractual obligations, we may be unable to fulfill our contractual obligations to our customers at previously anticipated costs. Therefore, a significant disruption could cause us to seek alternative supply services at potentially higher costs or suffer increased liability for unfulfilled contractual obligations. Any significantly higher energy or fuel costs relative to corresponding sales commitments could have a negative impact on our cash flows and potentially result in economic losses. Potential market supply shortages may not be fully resolved through alternative supply sources and may cause short-term disruptions in our ability to provide electric and/or natural gas services to our customers. The impact of these cost and reliability issues vary in magnitude for each operating subsidiary depending upon unique operating conditions such as generation fuels mix, availability of water for cooling, availability of fuel transportation including rail shipments of coal, electric generation capacity, transmission, natural gas pipeline capacity, etc. Failure to provide service due to disruptions could also result in fines, penalties or cost disallowances through the regulatory process. Public Policy Risks We may be subject to legislative and regulatory responses to climate change, with which compliance could be difficult and costly. Increased public awareness and concern regarding climate change may result in more state, regional and/or federal requirements to reduce or mitigate the effects of GHGs. Legislative and regulatory responses related to climate change and new interpretations of existing laws through climate change litigation create financial risk as our electric generating facilities may be subject to additional regulation at either the state or federal level in the future. Such regulations could impose substantial costs on our system. International agreements could have an impact to the extent they lead to future federal or state regulations. In 2015, the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change reached consensus among 190 nations on an agreement (the Paris Agreement) that establishes a framework for GHG mitigation actions by all countries (“nationally determined contributions”), with a goal of holding the increase in global average temperature to below 2o Celsius above pre-industrial levels and an aspiration to limit the increase to 1.5o Celsius. If implemented, the Paris Agreement could result in future additional GHG reductions in the United States. On June 21, 2017, President Trump announced that the U.S. would withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Such a withdrawal, under terms of the Agreement, becomes effective in four years. Many state and local government entities, however, have indicated that they intend to pursue GHG mitigation with a goal of achieving the GHG reductions in the United States anticipated by the Paris Agreement. We have been, and in the future may be, subject to climate change lawsuits. An adverse outcome in any of these cases could require substantial capital expenditures and could possibly require payment of substantial penalties or damages. Defense costs associated with such litigation can also be significant. Such payments or expenditures could affect results of operations, cash flows and financial condition if such costs are not recovered through regulated rates. Some states and localities have indicated a desire to continue to pursue climate policies even in the absence of federal mandates. All of the steps that Xcel Energy has taken to date to reduce GHG emissions, including energy efficiency measures, adding renewable generation or retiring or converting coal plants to natural gas, occurred under state-endorsed resource plans, renewable energy standards and other state policies. While those actions likely would have put Xcel Energy in a good position to meet federal standards under the CPP or the Paris Agreement, repeal of these policies would not impact those state-endorsed actions and plans. Whether under state or federal programs, an important factor is our ability to recover the costs incurred to comply with any regulatory requirements in a timely manner. If our regulators do not allow us to recover all or a part of the cost of capital investment or the O&M costs incurred to comply with the mandates, it could have a material effect on our results of operations. Increased risks of regulatory penalties could negatively impact our business. The Energy Act increased civil penalty authority for violation of FERC statutes, rules and orders. The FERC can now impose penalties of up to $1.2 million per violation per day, particularly as it relates to energy trading activities for both electricity and natural gas. Under statute, the FERC can adjust penalties for inflation. In addition, NERC electric reliability standards and critical infrastructure protection requirements are mandatory and subject to potential financial penalties by regional entities, the NERC or the FERC for violations. Additionally, the PHMSA, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration and other federal agencies also have penalty authority. In the event of serious incidents, these agencies have become more active in pursuing penalties. Some states have the authority to impose substantial penalties in the event of non-compliance. If a serious reliability or safety incident did occur, it could have a material effect on our operations or financial results. Macroeconomic Risks Economic conditions impact our business. Our operations are affected by local, national and worldwide economic conditions. Growth in our customer base is correlated with economic conditions. While the number of customers is growing, sales growth is relatively modest due to an increased focus on energy efficiency including federal standards for appliance and lighting efficiency and distributed generation, primarily solar PV. Instability in the financial markets also may affect the cost of capital and our ability to raise capital, which is discussed in the capital market risk factor section above. Economic conditions may be impacted by insufficient financial sector liquidity leading to potential increased unemployment, which may impact customers’ ability to pay timely, increase customer bankruptcies, and may lead to increased bad debt. Further, worldwide economic activity has an impact on the demand for basic commodities needed for utility infrastructure, such as steel, copper, aluminum, etc., which may impact our ability to acquire sufficient supplies. We operate in a capital intensive industry, and federal policy on trade could significantly impact the costs of the materials we use. We may be at risk for higher than anticipated inflation both with respect to our own workforce, as well as our materials and labor that we contract for with others. There may be delays before these higher costs can be recovered in rates. Our operations could be impacted by war, acts of terrorism, threats of terrorism or disruptions in normal operating conditions due to localized or regional events. Our generation plants, fuel storage facilities, transmission and distribution facilities and information and control systems may be targets of terrorist activities. Any such disruption could impact operations or result in a decrease in revenues and additional costs to repair and insure our assets. These disruptions could have a material impact on our financial condition and results of operations. The potential for terrorism has subjected our operations to increased risks and could have a material effect on our business. We have already incurred increased costs for security and capital expenditures in response to these risks. In addition, we may experience additional capital and operating costs to implement security for our plants, including our nuclear power plants under the NRC’s design basis threat requirements. We have also already incurred increased costs for compliance with NERC reliability standards associated with critical infrastructure protection. In addition, we may experience additional capital and operating costs to comply with the NERC critical infrastructure protection standards as they are implemented and clarified. The insurance industry has also been affected by these events and the availability of insurance may decrease. In addition, the insurance we are able to obtain may have higher deductibles, higher premiums and more restrictive policy terms. A disruption of the regional electric transmission grid, interstate natural gas pipeline infrastructure or other fuel sources, could negatively impact our business, as well as our brand and reputation. Because our generation, the transmission systems and local natural gas distribution companies are part of an interconnected system, we face the risk of possible loss of business due to a disruption caused by the actions of a neighboring utility or an event (such as severe storm, severe temperature extremes, wildfires, solar storms, generator or transmission facility outage, breakdown or failure of equipment, pipeline rupture, railroad disruption, operator error, sudden and significant increase or decrease in wind generation or any disruption of work force such as may be caused by flu or other epidemic) within our operating systems or on a neighboring system. Any such disruption could result in a significant decrease in revenues and significant additional costs to repair assets, which could have a material impact on our financial condition and results. The degree to which we are able to maintain day-to-day operations in response to unforeseen events will in part determine the financial impact of certain events on our financial condition and results. It is difficult to predict the magnitude of such events and associated impacts. A cyber incident or cyber security breach could have a material effect on our business. We operate in an industry that requires the continued operation of sophisticated information technology and control systems and network infrastructure. In addition, we use our systems and infrastructure to create, collect, use, disclose, store, dispose of and otherwise process sensitive information, including company data, customer energy usage data, and personal information regarding customers, employees and their dependents, contractors, shareholders and other individuals. Our generation, transmission, distribution and fuel storage facilities, information technology systems and other infrastructure or physical assets, as well as the information processed in our systems (such as information about our customers, employees, operations, infrastructure and assets) could be affected by cyber security incidents, including those caused by human error. Our industry has begun to see an increased volume and sophistication of cyber security incidents from international activist organizations, Nation States and individuals. Cyber security incidents could harm our businesses by limiting our generating, transmitting and distributing capabilities, delaying our development and construction of new facilities or capital improvement projects to existing facilities, disrupting our customer operations or exposing us to liability. Our generation, transmission systems and natural gas pipelines are part of an interconnected system. Therefore, a disruption caused by the impact of a cyber security incident of the regional electric transmission grid, natural gas pipeline infrastructure or other fuel sources of our third party service providers’ operations, could also negatively impact our business. Our supply chain for procurement of digital equipment may expose software or hardware to these risks and could result in a breach or significant costs of remediation. In addition, such an event would likely receive regulatory scrutiny at both the federal and state level. We are unable to quantify the potential impact of cyber security threats or subsequent related actions. These potential cyber security incidents and corresponding regulatory action could result in a material decrease in revenues and may cause significant additional costs (e.g., penalties, third party claims, repairs, insurance or compliance) and potentially disrupt our supply and markets for natural gas, oil and other fuels. We maintain security measures designed to protect our information technology and control systems, network infrastructure and other assets. However, these assets and the information they process may be vulnerable to cyber security incidents, including the resulting disability, or failures of assets or unauthorized access to assets or information. If our technology systems were to fail or be breached, or those of our third-party service providers, we may be unable to fulfill critical business functions, including effectively maintaining certain internal controls over financial reporting. We are unable to quantify the potential impact of cyber security incidents on our business, our brand, and our reputation. The cyber security threat is dynamic and evolves continually, and our efforts to prioritize network monitoring may not be effective given the constant changes to threat vulnerability. Rising energy prices could negatively impact our business. Although commodity prices are currently relatively low, if fuel costs increase, customer demand could decline and bad debt expense may rise, which could have a material impact on our results of operations. While we have fuel clause recovery mechanisms in most of our states, higher fuel costs could significantly impact our results of operations if costs are not recovered. Delays in the timing of the collection of fuel cost recoveries as compared with expenditures for fuel purchases could have an impact on our cash flows. Low fuel costs could have a positive impact on sales, though low oil and natural gas prices could negatively impact oil and gas production activities and subsequently our sales volumes and revenue. We are unable to predict future prices or the ultimate impact of such prices on our results of operations or cash flows. Our operating results may fluctuate on a seasonal and quarterly basis and can be adversely affected by milder weather. Our electric and natural gas utility businesses are seasonal, and weather patterns can have a material impact on our operating performance. Demand for electricity is often greater in the summer and winter months associated with cooling and heating. Because natural gas is heavily used for residential and commercial heating, the demand depends heavily upon weather patterns throughout our service territory, and a significant amount of natural gas revenues are recognized in the first and fourth quarters related to the heating season. Accordingly, our operations have historically generated less revenues and income when weather conditions are milder in the winter and cooler in the summer. Unusually mild winters and summers could have an adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations, or cash flows. Our operations use third party contractors in addition to employees to perform periodic and on-going work. We rely on third party contractors with specific qualifications to perform work both for ongoing operations and maintenance and for capital construction. We have contractual arrangements with these contractors which typically include performance standards, progress payments, insurance requirements and security for performance. Cyber security breaches seen in the news have at times exploited third party equipment or software in order to gain access. Poor vendor performance could impact on going operations, restoration operations, our reputation and could introduce financial risk or risks of fines. Item 1B
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ITEM 1A — RISK FACTORS Xcel Energy is subject to a variety of risks, many of which are beyond our control. Risks that may adversely affect the business, financial condition, results of operations or cash flows are described below. Although the risks are organized by heading, and each risk is described separately, many of the risks are interrelated. These risks should be carefully considered together with the other information set forth in this report and future reports that we file with the SEC. You should not interpret the disclosure of any risk factor to imply that the risk has not already materialized. While we believe we have identified and discussed below the key risk factors affecting our business, there may be additional risks and uncertainties that are not presently known or that are not currently believed to be significant that may adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations or cash flows in the future. Oversight of Risk and Related Processes The Board of Directors is responsible for the oversight of material risk and maintaining an effective risk monitoring process. Management and the Board of Directors’ committees have responsibility for overseeing the identification and mitigation of key risks and reporting its assessments and activities to the full Board of Directors. Xcel Energy maintains a robust compliance program and promotes a culture of compliance beginning with the tone at the top. The risk mitigation process includes adherence to our code of conduct and compliance policies, operation of formal risk management structures and overall business management. Xcel Energy further mitigates inherent risks through formal risk committees and corporate functions such as internal audit, and internal controls over financial reporting and legal. Management identifies and analyzes risks to determine materiality and other attributes such as timing, probability and controllability. Identification and risk analysis occurs formally through risk assessment conducted by senior management, the financial disclosure process, hazard risk procedures, internal audit and compliance with financial and operational controls. Management also identifies and analyzes risk through the business planning process, development of goals and establishment of key performance indicators, including identification of barriers to implementing Xcel Energy’s strategy. The business planning process also identifies likelihood and mitigating factors to prevent the assumption of inappropriate risk to meet goals. Management communicates regularly with the Board of Directors and key stakeholders regarding risk. Senior management presents and communicates a periodic risk assessment to the Board of Directors, providing information on the risks that management believes are material, including financial impact, timing, likelihood and mitigating factors. The Board of Directors regularly reviews management’s key risk assessments, which includes areas of existing and future macroeconomic, financial, operational, policy, environmental and security risks. The oversight, management and mitigation of risk is an integral and continuous part of the Board of Directors’ governance of Xcel Energy. The Board of Directors assigns oversight of critical risks to each of its four committees to ensure these risks are well understood and given appropriate focus.
The Audit Committee is responsible for reviewing the adequacy of the committee’s risk oversight and affirming appropriate aggregate oversight occurs. Committees regularly report on their oversight activities and certain risk issues may be brought to the full Board of Directors for consideration when deemed appropriate. New risks are considered and assigned as appropriate during the annual Board of Directors and committee evaluation process, resulting in updates to the committee charters and annual work plans. Additionally, the Board of Directors conducts an annual strategy session where Xcel Energy’s future plans and initiatives are reviewed. Operational Risks Our natural gas and electric generation/transmission and distribution operations involve numerous risks that may result in accidents and other operating risks and costs. Our natural gas transmission and distribution activities include inherent hazards and operating risks, such as leaks, explosions, outages and mechanical problems. Our electric generation, transmission and distribution activities include inherent hazards and operating risks such as contact, fire and outages. These risks could result in loss of life, significant property damage, environmental pollution, impairment of our operations and substantial financial losses to employees, third-party contractors, customers or the public. We maintain insurance against most, but not all, of these risks and losses. The occurrence of these events, if not fully covered by insurance, could have a material effect on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows as well as potential loss of reputation. Other uncertainties and risks inherent in operating and maintaining Xcel Energy's facilities include, but are not limited to: •Risks associated with facility start-up operations, such as whether the facility will achieve projected operating performance on schedule and otherwise as planned. •Failures in the availability, acquisition or transportation of fuel or other necessary supplies. •The impact of unusual or adverse weather conditions and natural disasters, including, but not limited to, tornadoes, icing events, floods and droughts. •Performance below expected or contracted levels of output or efficiency (e.g., performance guarantees). •Availability of replacement equipment. •Availability of adequate water resources and ability to satisfy water intake and discharge requirements. •Inability to identify, manage properly or mitigate equipment defects. •Use of new or unproven technology. •Risks associated with dependence on a specific type of fuel or fuel source, such as commodity price risk, availability of adequate fuel supply and transportation and lack of available alternative fuel sources. •Increased competition due to, among other factors, new facilities, excess supply, shifting demand and regulatory changes.
Additionally, compliance with existing and potential new regulations related to the operation and maintenance of our natural gas infrastructure could result in significant costs. The PHMSA is responsible for administering the DOT’s national regulatory program to assure the safe transportation of natural gas, petroleum and other hazardous materials by pipelines. The PHMSA continues to develop regulations and other approaches to risk management to assure safety in design, construction, testing, operation, maintenance and emergency response of natural gas pipeline infrastructure. We have programs in place to comply with these regulations and systematically monitor and renew infrastructure over time, however, a significant incident or material finding of non-compliance could result in penalties and higher costs of operations. Our natural gas and electric transmission and distribution operations are dependent upon complex information technology systems and network infrastructure, the failure of which could disrupt our normal business operations, which could have a material adverse effect on our ability to process transactions and provide services. Our utility operations are subject to long-term planning and project risks. Most electric utility investments are planned to be used for decades. Transmission and generation investments typically have long lead times and are planned well in advance of in-service dates and typically subject to long-term resource plans. These plans are based on numerous assumptions such as: sales growth, customer usage, commodity prices, economic activity, costs, regulatory mechanisms, customer behavior, available technology and public policy. Xcel Energy’s long-term resource plan is dependent on our ability to obtain required approvals, develop necessary technical expertise, allocate and coordinate sufficient resources and adhere to budgets and timelines. In addition, the long-term nature of both our planning and our asset lives are subject to risk. The electric utility sector is undergoing significant change (e.g., increases in energy efficiency, wider adoption of distributed generation and shifts away from fossil fuel generation to renewable generation). Customer adoption of these technologies and increased energy efficiency could result in excess transmission and generation resources, downward pressure on sales growth, and potentially stranded costs if we are not able to fully recover costs and investments. The magnitude and timing of resource additions and changes in customer demand may not coincide with evolving customer preference for generation resources and end-uses, which introduces further uncertainty into long-term planning. Efforts to electrify the transportation and building sectors to reduce GHG emissions may result in higher electric demand and lower natural gas demand over time. Higher electric demand may require us to adopt new technologies and make significant transmission and distribution investments including advanced grid infrastructure, which increases exposure to overall grid instability and technology obsolescence. Evolving stakeholder preference for lower emissions from generation sources and end-uses, like heating, may impact our resource mix and put pressure on our ability to recover capital investments in natural gas generation and delivery. Multiple states may not agree as to the appropriate resource mix, which may lead to costs to comply with one jurisdiction that are not recoverable across all jurisdictions served by the same assets.
We are subject to longer-term availability of inputs such as coal, natural gas, uranium and water to cool our facilities. Lack of availability of these resources could jeopardize long-term operations of our facilities or make them uneconomic to operate. Our utilities are highly dependent on suppliers to deliver components in accordance with short and long-term project schedules. Our products contain components that are globally sourced from suppliers who, in turn, source components from their suppliers. A shortage of key components in which an alternative supplier is not identified could significantly impact project plans. Such impacts could include timing of projects, including potential for project cancellation. Failure to adhere to project budgets and timelines could adversely impact our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. We are subject to commodity risks and other risks associated with energy markets and energy production. In the event fuel costs increase, customer demand could decline and bad debt expense may rise, which may have a material impact on our results of operations. Despite existing fuel recovery mechanisms in most of our states, higher fuel costs could significantly impact our results of operations if costs are not recovered. Delays in the timing of the collection of fuel cost recoveries could impact our cash flows and liquidity. A significant disruption in supply could cause us to seek alternative supply services at potentially higher costs and supply shortages may not be fully resolved, which could cause disruptions in our ability to provide services to our customers. Failure to provide service due to disruptions may also result in fines, penalties or cost disallowances through the regulatory process. Also, significantly higher energy or fuel costs relative to sales commitments could negatively impact our cash flows and results of operations. We also engage in wholesale sales and purchases of electric capacity, energy and energy-related products as well as natural gas. In many markets, emission allowances and/or RECs are also needed to comply with various statutes and commission rulings. As a result, we are subject to market supply and commodity price risk. Commodity price changes can affect the value of our commodity trading derivatives. We mark certain derivatives to estimated fair market value on a daily basis. Settlements can vary significantly from estimated fair values recorded and significant changes from the assumptions underlying our fair value estimates could cause earnings variability. The management of risks associated with hedging and trading is based, in part, on programs and procedures which utilize historical prices and trends. Due to the inherent uncertainty involved in price movements and potential deviation from historical pricing, Xcel Energy is unable to fully assure that its risk management programs and procedures would be effective to protect against all significant adverse market deviations. In addition, Xcel Energy cannot fully assure that its controls will be effective against all potential risks, including, without limitation, employee misconduct. If such programs and procedures are not effective, Xcel Energy’s results of operations, financial condition or cash flows could be materially impacted.
Failure to attract and retain a qualified workforce could have an adverse effect on operations. In 2021, the competition for talent has become increasingly intense as a result of the ongoing “great resignation”, and we may experience increased employee turnover due to this tightening labor market. In addition, specialized knowledge is required of our technical employees for construction and operation of transmission, generation and distribution assets, which may pose additional difficulty for us as we work to recruit, retain and motivate employees in this climate. Failure to hire and adequately train replacement employees, including the transfer of significant internal historical knowledge and expertise to new employees or future availability and cost of contract labor may adversely affect the ability to manage and operate our business. Inability to attract and retain these employees could adversely impact our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. Our operations use third-party contractors in addition to employees to perform periodic and ongoing work. We rely on third-party contractors to perform operations, maintenance and construction work. Our contractual arrangements with these contractors typically include performance standards, progress payments, insurance requirements and security for performance. Poor vendor performance or contractor unavailability could impact ongoing operations, restoration operations, our reputation and could introduce financial risk or risks of fines. Our employees, directors, third-party contractors, or suppliers may violate or be perceived to violate our Codes of Conduct, which could have an adverse effect on our reputation. We are exposed to risk of employee or third-party contractor fraud or other misconduct. All employees and members of the Board of Directors are subject to comply with our Code of Conduct and are required to participate in annual training. Additionally, suppliers are subject to comply with our supplier Code of Conduct. Xcel Energy does not tolerate discrimination, violations of our Code of Conduct or other unacceptable behaviors. However, it is not always possible to identify and deter misconduct by employees and other third-parties, which may result in governmental investigations, other actions or lawsuits. If such actions are taken against us we may suffer loss of reputation and such actions could have a material effect on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. Our subsidiary, NSP-Minnesota, is subject to the risks of nuclear generation. NSP-Minnesota has two nuclear generation plants, PI and Monticello. Risks of nuclear generation include: •Hazards associated with the use of radioactive material in energy production, including management, handling, storage and disposal. •Limitations on insurance available to cover losses that may arise in connection with nuclear operations, as well as obligations to contribute to an insurance pool in the event of damages at a covered U.S. reactor. •Technological and financial uncertainties related to the costs of decommissioning nuclear plants may cause our funding obligations to change.
The NRC has authority to impose licensing and safety-related requirements for the operation of nuclear generation facilities, including the ability to impose fines and/or shut down a unit until compliance is achieved. NRC safety requirements could necessitate substantial capital expenditures or an increase in operating expenses. In addition, the INPO reviews NSP-Minnesota’s nuclear operations. Compliance with the INPO’s recommendations could result in substantial capital expenditures or a substantial increase in operating expenses. If a nuclear incident did occur, it could have a material impact on our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. Furthermore, non-compliance or the occurrence of a serious incident at other nuclear facilities could result in increased industry regulation, which may increase NSP-Minnesota’s compliance costs. Financial Risks Our profitability depends on the ability of our utility subsidiaries to recover their costs and changes in regulation may impair the ability of our utility subsidiaries to recover costs from their customers. We are subject to comprehensive regulation by federal and state utility regulatory agencies, including siting and construction of facilities, customer service and the rates that we can charge customers. The profitability of our utility operations is dependent on our ability to recover the costs of providing energy and utility services and earning a return on capital investment. Our rates are generally regulated and are based on an analysis of the utility’s costs incurred in a test year. The utility subsidiaries are subject to both future and historical test years depending upon the regulatory jurisdiction. Thus, the rates a utility is allowed to charge may or may not match its costs at any given time. Rate regulation is premised on providing an opportunity to earn a reasonable rate of return on invested capital. There can also be no assurance that our regulatory commissions will judge all the costs of our utility subsidiaries to be prudent, which could result in disallowances, or that the regulatory process will always result in rates that will produce full recovery. Overall, management believes prudently incurred costs are recoverable given the existing regulatory framework. However, there may be changes in the regulatory environment that could impair the ability of our utility subsidiaries to recover costs historically collected from customers, or these subsidiaries could exceed caps on capital costs required by commissions and result in less than full recovery. Changes in the long-term cost-effectiveness or to the operating conditions of our assets may result in early retirements of utility facilities. While regulation typically provides cost recovery relief for these types of changes, there is no assurance that regulators would allow full recovery of all remaining costs. Higher than expected inflation or tariffs may increase costs of construction and operations. Also, rising fuel costs could increase the risk that our utility subsidiaries will not be able to fully recover their fuel costs from their customers. Adverse regulatory rulings or the imposition of additional regulations could have an adverse impact on our results of operations and materially affect our ability to meet our financial obligations, including debt payments and the payment of dividends on common stock.
Any reductions in our credit ratings could increase our financing costs and the cost of maintaining certain contractual relationships. We cannot be assured that our current credit ratings or our subsidiaries’ ratings will remain in effect, or that a rating will not be lowered or withdrawn by a rating agency. Significant events including disallowance of costs, use of historic test years, elimination of riders or interim rates, increasing depreciation lives, lower returns on equity, changes to equity ratios and impacts of tax policy may impact our cash flows and credit metrics, potentially resulting in a change in our credit ratings. In addition, our credit ratings may change as a result of the differing methodologies or change in the methodologies used by the various rating agencies. Any credit ratings downgrade could lead to higher borrowing costs or lower proceeds from equity issuances. It could also impact our ability to access capital markets. Also, our utility subsidiaries may enter into contracts that require posting of collateral or settlement if credit ratings fall below investment grade. We are subject to capital market and interest rate risks. Utility operations require significant capital investment. As a result, we frequently need to access capital markets. Any disruption in capital markets could have a material impact on our ability to fund our operations. Capital market disruption and financial market distress could prevent us from issuing short-term commercial paper, issuing new securities or cause us to issue securities with unfavorable terms and conditions, such as higher interest rates or lower proceeds from equity issuances. Higher interest rates on short-term borrowings with variable interest rates could also have an adverse effect on our operating results. The performance of capital markets impacts the value of assets held in trusts to satisfy future obligations to decommission NSP-Minnesota’s nuclear plants and satisfy our defined benefit pension and postretirement benefit plan obligations. These assets are subject to market fluctuations and yield uncertain returns, which may fall below expected returns. A decline in the market value of these assets may increase funding requirements. Additionally, the fair value of the debt securities held in the nuclear decommissioning and/or pension trusts may be impacted by changes in interest rates. We are subject to credit risks. Credit risk includes the risk that our customers will not pay their bills, which may lead to a reduction in liquidity and an increase in bad debt expense. Credit risk is comprised of numerous factors including the price of products and services provided, the economy and unemployment rates. Credit risk also includes the risk that counterparties that owe us money or product will become insolvent and may breach their obligations. Should the counterparties fail to perform, we may be forced to enter into alternative arrangements. In that event, our financial results could be adversely affected and incur losses. Xcel Energy may have direct credit exposure in our short-term wholesale and commodity trading activity to financial institutions trading for their own accounts or issuing collateral support on behalf of other counterparties. We may also have some indirect credit exposure due to participation in organized markets, (e.g., California Independent System Operator, SPP, PJM Interconnection, LLC, MISO and Electric Reliability Council of Texas), in which any credit losses are socialized to all market participants.
We have additional indirect credit exposure to financial institutions from letters of credit provided as security by power suppliers under various purchased power contracts. If any of the credit ratings of the letter of credit issuers were to drop below investment grade, the supplier would need to replace that security with an acceptable substitute. If the security were not replaced, the party could be in default under the contract. Increasing costs of our defined benefit retirement plans and employee benefits may adversely affect our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. We have defined benefit pension and postretirement plans that cover most of our employees. Assumptions related to future costs, return on investments, interest rates and other actuarial assumptions have a significant impact on our funding requirements of these plans. Estimates and assumptions may change. In addition, the Pension Protection Act sets the minimum funding requirements for defined benefit pension plans. Therefore, our funding requirements and contributions may change in the future. Also, the payout of a significant percentage of pension plan liabilities in a single year, due to high numbers of retirements or employees leaving, would trigger settlement accounting and could require Xcel Energy to recognize incremental pension expense related to unrecognized plan losses in the year liabilities are paid. Changes in industry standards utilized in key assumptions (e.g., mortality tables) could have a significant impact on future obligations and benefit costs. Increasing costs associated with health care plans may adversely affect our results of operations. Increasing levels of large individual health care claims and overall health care claims could have an adverse impact on our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. Health care legislation could also significantly impact our benefit programs and costs. We must rely on cash from our subsidiaries to make dividend payments. Investments in our subsidiaries are our primary assets. Substantially all of our operations are conducted by our subsidiaries. Consequently, our operating cash flow and ability to service our debt and pay dividends depends upon the operating cash flows of our subsidiaries and their payment of dividends. Our subsidiaries are separate legal entities that have no obligation to pay any amounts due pursuant to our obligations or to make any funds available for dividends on our common stock. In addition, each subsidiary’s ability to pay dividends depends on statutory and/or contractual restrictions which may include requirements to maintain minimum levels of equity ratios, working capital or assets. If the utility subsidiaries were to cease making dividend payments, our ability to pay dividends on our common stock or otherwise meet our financial obligations could be adversely affected. Our utility subsidiaries are regulated by state utility commissions, which possess broad powers to ensure that the needs of the utility customers are met. We may be negatively impacted by the actions of state commissions that limit the payment of dividends by our utility subsidiaries.
Federal tax law may significantly impact our business. Our utility subsidiaries collect estimated federal, state and local tax payments through their regulated rates. Changes to federal tax law may benefit or adversely affect our earnings and customer costs. Tax depreciable lives and the value/availability of various tax credits or the timeliness of their utilization may impact the economics or selection of resources. If tax rates are increased, there could be timing delays before regulated rates provide for recovery of such tax increases in revenues. In addition, certain IRS tax policies, such as tax normalization, may impact our ability to economically deliver certain types of resources relative to market prices. Macroeconomic Risks Economic conditions impact our business. Xcel Energy’s operations are affected by local, national and worldwide economic conditions, which correlates to customers/sales growth (decline). Economic conditions may be impacted by insufficient financial sector liquidity leading to potential increased unemployment, which may impact customers’ ability to pay their bills, which could lead to additional bad debt expense. Our utility subsidiaries face competitive factors, which could have an adverse impact on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. Further, worldwide economic activity impacts the demand for basic commodities necessary for utility infrastructure, which may inhibit our ability to acquire sufficient supplies. We operate in a capital-intensive industry and federal trade policy could significantly impact the cost of materials we use. There may be delays before these additional material costs can be recovered in rates. We face risks related to health epidemics and other outbreaks, which may have a material effect on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. The global outbreak of COVID-19 continues to impact countries, communities, supply chains and markets. A high degree of uncertainty continues to exist regarding the pandemic; the duration and magnitude of business restrictions (domestically and globally); the potential shortages of employees and third-party contractors due to quarantine policies, vaccination requirements or government restrictions; re-shutdowns, if any, and the level and pace of economic recovery. Xcel Energy has experienced and may continue to experience sales volatility and shifts between residential and C&I sales as a result of COVID-19. Xcel Energy has a decoupling mechanism in Colorado for residential and non-demand small C&I electric customer classes. In Minnesota, Xcel Energy has historically had a sales true-up mechanism for all electric customer classes which has ended in 2021. We are requesting implementation of a new sales true-up mechanism for 2022 - 2024. These mechanisms mitigate the impact of changes to sales levels as compared to a baseline. Although the financial impact of the pandemic on our financial results has largely been mitigated, we cannot ultimately predict whether it will have a material impact on our future liquidity, financial condition or results of operations. Nor can we predict the impact of the virus on the health of our employees, our supply chain or our ability to recover higher costs associated with managing through the pandemic. The impact of COVID-19 may exacerbate other risks discussed herein, which could have a material effect on us. The situation is evolving and additional impacts may arise.
Operations could be impacted by war, terrorism or other events. Our generation plants, fuel storage facilities, transmission and distribution facilities and information and control systems may be targets of terrorist activities. Any disruption could impact operations or result in a decrease in revenues and additional costs to repair and insure our assets. These disruptions could have a material impact on our financial condition, results of operations or cash flows. The potential for terrorism has subjected our operations to increased risks and could have a material effect on our business. We have already incurred increased costs for security and capital expenditures in response to these risks. The insurance industry has also been affected by these events and the availability of insurance may decrease. In addition, insurance may have higher deductibles, higher premiums and more restrictive policy terms. A disruption of the regional electric transmission grid, interstate natural gas pipeline infrastructure or other fuel sources, could negatively impact our business, brand and reputation. Because our facilities are part of an interconnected system, we face the risk of possible loss of business due to a disruption caused by the actions of a neighboring utility. We also face the risks of possible loss of business due to significant events such as severe storms, severe temperature extremes, wildfires (particularly in Colorado), widespread pandemic, generator or transmission facility outage, pipeline rupture, railroad disruption, operator error, sudden and significant increase or decrease in wind generation or a workforce disruption. In addition, major catastrophic events throughout the world may disrupt our business. Xcel Energy participates in a global supply chain, which includes materials and components that are globally sourced. A prolonged disruption could result in the delay of equipment and materials that may impact our ability to reliably serve our customers. A major disruption could result in a significant decrease in revenues and additional costs to repair assets, which could have a material impact on our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. Xcel Energy participates in GridEx, which is the largest grid security exercise in North America. These efforts, led by the NERC, test and further develop the coordination, threat sharing and interaction between utilities and various government agencies relative to potential cyber and physical threats against the nation’s electric grid. A cyber incident or security breach could have a material effect on our business. We operate in an industry that requires the continued operation of sophisticated information technology, control systems and network infrastructure. In addition, we use our systems and infrastructure to create, collect, use, disclose, store, dispose of and otherwise process sensitive information, including company data, customer energy usage data, and personal information regarding customers, employees and their dependents, contractors, shareholders and other individuals. Xcel Energy’s generation, transmission, distribution and fuel storage facilities, information technology systems and other infrastructure or physical assets as well as information processed in our systems (e.g., information regarding our customers, employees, operations, infrastructure and assets) could be affected by cyber security incidents, including those caused by human error.
The utility industry has been the target of several attacks on operational systems and has seen an increased volume and sophistication of cyber security incidents from international activist organizations, Nation States and individuals. During the normal course of business, we have experienced and expect to continue to experience attempts to compromise our information technology and control systems, network infrastructure and other assets. To date, no cybersecurity incident or attack has had a material impact on our business or results of operation. Cyber security incidents could harm our businesses by limiting our generating, transmitting and distributing capabilities, delaying our development and construction of new facilities or capital improvement projects to existing facilities, disrupting our customer operations or causing the release of customer information, all of which would likely receive state and federal regulatory scrutiny and could expose us to liability. Xcel Energy’s generation, transmission systems and natural gas pipelines are part of an interconnected system. Therefore, a disruption caused by the impact of a cyber security incident of the regional electric transmission grid, natural gas pipeline infrastructure or other fuel sources of our third-party service providers’ operations, could also negatively impact our business. Our supply chain for procurement of digital equipment and services may expose software or hardware to these risks and could result in a breach or significant costs of remediation. We are unable to quantify the potential impact of cyber security threats or subsequent related actions. Cyber security incidents and regulatory action could result in a material decrease in revenues and may cause significant additional costs (e.g., penalties, third-party claims, repairs, insurance or compliance) and potentially disrupt our supply and markets for natural gas, oil and other fuels. We maintain security measures to protect our information technology and control systems, network infrastructure and other assets. However, these assets and the information they process may be vulnerable to cyber security incidents, including asset failure or unauthorized access to assets or information. A failure or breach of our technology systems or those of our third-party service providers could disrupt critical business functions and may negatively impact our business, our brand, and our reputation. The cyber security threat is dynamic and evolves continually, and our efforts to prioritize network protection may not be effective given the constant changes to threat vulnerability. Our operating results may fluctuate on a seasonal and quarterly basis and can be adversely affected by milder weather. Our electric and natural gas utility businesses are seasonal and weather patterns can have a material impact on our operating performance. Demand for electricity is often greater in the summer and winter months associated with cooling and heating. Because natural gas is heavily used for residential and commercial heating, the demand depends heavily upon weather patterns. A significant amount of natural gas revenues are recognized in the first and fourth quarters related to the heating season. Accordingly, our operations have historically generated less revenues and income when weather conditions are milder in the winter and cooler in the summer. Unusually mild winters and summers could have an adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations or cash flows.
Public Policy Risks We may be subject to legislative and regulatory responses to climate change, with which compliance could be difficult and costly. Legislative and regulatory responses related to climate change may create financial risk as our facilities may be subject to additional regulation at either the state or federal level in the future. International agreements could additionally lead to future federal or state regulations. In 2015, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change reached consensus among 190 nations on an agreement (the Paris Agreement) that establishes a framework for GHG mitigation actions by all countries, with a goal of holding the increase in global average temperature to below 2º Celsius above pre-industrial levels and an aspiration to limit the increase to 1.5º Celsius. In April 2021, ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, the Biden Administration committed the U.S. to a Nationally Determined Contribution of 50-52% net GHG emissions reduction economy-wide from 2005 levels. This commitment and other agreements made in Glasgow could result in future additional GHG reductions in the United States. In addition, the Biden Administration has announced plans to implement new climate change programs, including potential regulation of GHG emissions targeting the utility industry. Many states and localities continue to pursue their own climate policies. The steps Xcel Energy has taken to date to reduce GHG emissions, including energy efficiency measures, adding renewable generation or retiring or converting coal plants to natural gas, occurred under state-endorsed resource plans, renewable energy standards and other state policies. We may be subject to climate change lawsuits. An adverse outcome could require substantial capital expenditures and possibly require payment of substantial penalties or damages. Defense costs associated with such litigation can also be significant and could affect results of operations, financial condition or cash flows if such costs are not recovered through regulated rates. If our regulators do not allow us to recover all or a part of the cost of capital investment or the O&M costs incurred to comply with the mandates, it could have a material effect on our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. Increased risks of regulatory penalties could negatively impact our business. The Energy Act increased civil penalty authority for violation of FERC statutes, rules and orders. The FERC can impose penalties of up to $1.3 million per violation per day, particularly as it relates to energy trading activities for both electricity and natural gas. In addition, NERC electric reliability standards and critical infrastructure protection requirements are mandatory and subject to potential financial penalties. Also, the PHMSA, Occupational Safety and Health Administration and other federal agencies have the authority to assess penalties. In the event of serious incidents, these agencies may pursue penalties. In addition, certain states have the authority to impose substantial penalties. If a serious reliability, cyber or safety incident did occur, it could have a material effect on our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows.
The continued use of natural gas for both power generation and gas distribution have increasingly become a public policy advocacy target. These efforts may result in a limitation of natural gas as an energy source for both power generation and heating, which could impact our ability to reliably and affordably serve our customers. In recent years, there have been various local and state agency proposals within and outside our service territories that would attempt to restrict the use and availability of natural gas. If such policies were to prevail, we may be forced to make new resource investment decisions which could potentially result in stranded costs if we are not able to fully recover costs and investments and impact the overall reliability of our service. Environmental Risks We are subject to environmental laws and regulations, with which compliance could be difficult and costly. We are subject to environmental laws and regulations that affect many aspects of our operations, including air emissions, water quality, wastewater discharges and the generation, transport and disposal of solid wastes and hazardous substances. Laws and regulations require us to obtain permits, licenses, and approvals and to comply with a variety of environmental requirements. Environmental laws and regulations can also require us to restrict or limit the output of facilities or the use of certain fuels, shift generation to lower-emitting facilities, install pollution control equipment, clean up spills and other contamination and correct environmental hazards. Failure to meet requirements of environmental mandates may result in fines or penalties. We may be required to pay all or a portion of the cost to remediate sites where our past activities, or the activities of other parties, caused environmental contamination. Changes in environmental policies and regulations or regulatory decisions may result in early retirements of our generation facilities. While regulation typically provides relief for these types of changes, there is no assurance that regulators would allow full recovery of all remaining costs. We are subject to mandates to provide customers with clean energy, renewable energy and energy conservation offerings. It could have a material effect on our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows if our regulators do not allow us to recover the cost of capital investment or O&M costs incurred to comply with the requirements. In addition, existing environmental laws or regulations may be revised and new laws or regulations may be adopted. We may also incur additional unanticipated obligations or liabilities under existing environmental laws and regulations. We are subject to physical and financial risks associated with climate change and other weather, natural disaster and resource depletion impacts. Climate change can create physical and financial risk. Physical risks include changes in weather conditions and extreme weather events. Our customers’ energy needs vary with weather. To the extent weather conditions are affected by climate change, customers’ energy use could increase or decrease. Increased energy use due to weather changes may require us to invest in generating assets, transmission and infrastructure. Decreased energy use due to weather changes may result in decreased revenues.
Climate change may impact the economy, which could impact our sales and revenues. The price of energy has an impact on the economic health of our communities. The cost of additional regulatory requirements, such as regulation of GHG, could impact the availability of goods and prices charged by our suppliers which would normally be borne by consumers through higher prices for energy and purchased goods. To the extent financial markets view climate change and emissions of GHGs as a financial risk, this could negatively affect our ability to access capital markets or cause us to receive less than ideal terms and conditions. We have committed to a number of long-term climate change goals, which in part are dependent on future technologies not currently in existence. Given the long-term nature of these goals, there is an inherent uncertainty due to internal and external factors regarding our ability to achieve our stated climate change goals. To the extent climate change goals are not met, this could negatively impact our reputation and potentially result in financial risk. Severe weather impacts our service territories, primarily when thunderstorms, flooding, tornadoes, wildfires and snow or ice storms occur. Extreme weather conditions in general require system backup and can contribute to increased system stress, including service interruptions. Extreme weather conditions creating high energy demand may raise electricity prices, increasing the cost of energy we provide to our customers. To the extent the frequency of extreme weather events increases, this could increase our cost of providing service. Periods of extreme temperatures could impact our ability to meet demand. Changes in precipitation resulting in droughts or water shortages could adversely affect our operations. Drought conditions also contribute to the increase in wildfire risk from our electric generation facilities. While we carry liability insurance, given an extreme event, if Xcel Energy was found to be liable for wildfire damages, amounts that potentially exceed our coverage could negatively impact our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows. Drought or water depletion could adversely impact our ability to provide electricity to customers, cause early retirement of power plants and increase the cost for energy. Adverse events may result in increased insurance costs and/or decreased insurance availability. We may not recover all costs related to mitigating these physical and financial risks.