VLO, §1A diff (2018 → 2019)

ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS You should carefully consider the following risk factors in addition to the other information included in this report. Each of these risk factors could adversely affect our business, operating results, and/or financial condition, as well as adversely affect the value of an investment in our common stock. Our financial results are affected by volatile refining margins, which are dependent upon factors beyond our control, including the price of crude oil and the market price at which we can sell refined petroleum products. Our financial results are primarily affected by the relationship, or margin, between refined petroleum product prices and the prices for crude oil and other feedstocks. Historically, refining margins have been volatile, and we believe they will continue to be volatile in the future. Our cost to acquire feedstocks and the price at which we can ultimately sell refined petroleum products depend upon several factors beyond our control, including regional and global supply of and demand for crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and other feedstocks and refined petroleum products. These in turn depend on, among other things, the availability and quantity of imports, the production levels of U.S. and international suppliers, levels of refined petroleum product inventories, productivity and growth (or the lack thereof) of U.S. and global economies, U.S. relationships with foreign governments, political affairs, and the extent of governmental regulation. Some of these factors can vary by region and may change quickly, adding to market volatility, while others may have longer-term effects. The longer-term effects of these and other factors on refining and marketing margins are uncertain. We do not produce crude oil and must purchase all of the crude oil we refine. We may purchase our crude oil and other refinery feedstocks long before we refine them and sell the refined petroleum products. Price level changes during the period between purchasing feedstocks and selling the refined petroleum products from these feedstocks could have a significant effect on our financial results. A decline in market prices may negatively impact the carrying value of our inventories. Economic turmoil and political unrest or hostilities, including the threat of future terrorist attacks, could affect the economies of the U.S. and other countries. Lower levels of economic activity could result in declines in energy consumption, including declines in the demand for and consumption of our refined petroleum products, which could cause our revenues and margins to decline and limit our future growth prospects. Refining margins are also significantly impacted by additional refinery conversion capacity through the expansion of existing refineries or the construction of new refineries. Worldwide refining capacity expansions may result in refining production capability exceeding refined petroleum product demand, which would have an adverse effect on refining margins. A significant portion of our profitability is derived from the ability to purchase and process crude oil feedstocks that historically have been cheaper than benchmark crude oils, such as Louisiana Light Sweet (LLS) and Brent crude oils. These crude oil feedstock differentials vary significantly depending on overall economic conditions and trends and conditions within the markets for crude oil and refined petroleum products, and they could decline in the future, which would have a negative impact on our results of operations. Compliance with and changes in environmental laws, including proposed climate change laws and regulations, could adversely affect our performance. The principal environmental risks associated with our operations are emissions into the air and releases into the soil, surface water, or groundwater. Our operations are subject to extensive environmental laws and regulations, including those relating to the discharge of materials into the environment, waste management, pollution prevention measures, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and characteristics and composition of fuels, including gasoline and diesel. Certain of these laws and regulations could impose obligations to conduct assessment or remediation efforts at our facilities as well as at formerly owned properties or third-party sites where we have taken wastes for disposal or where our wastes have migrated. Environmental laws and regulations also may impose liability on us for the conduct of third parties, or for actions that complied with applicable requirements when taken, regardless of negligence or fault. If we violate or fail to comply with these laws and regulations, we could be fined or otherwise sanctioned. Because environmental laws and regulations are becoming more stringent and new environmental laws and regulations are continuously being enacted or proposed, such as those relating to GHG emissions and climate change, the level of expenditures required for environmental matters could increase in the future. Current and future legislative action and regulatory initiatives could result in changes to operating permits, material changes in operations, increased capital expenditures and operating costs, increased costs of the goods we sell, and decreased demand for our products that cannot be assessed with certainty at this time. We may be required to make expenditures to modify operations, discontinue use of certain process units, or install pollution control equipment that could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations, and liquidity. For example, in 2015, the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. participated in the United Nations Conference on Climate Change, which led to the creation of the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement, which was signed by the U.S. in April 2016, requires countries to review and “represent a progression” in their intended nationally determined contributions (which set GHG emission reduction goals) every five years beginning in 2020. In November 2019, the current U.S. administration served notice on the United Nations that the U.S. would withdraw from the Paris Agreement in 2020. There are no guarantees that the Paris Agreement will not be re-implemented in the U.S. or re-implemented in part by specific U.S. states or local governments. Regardless, the Paris Agreement could still affect our operations in Canada, the U.K., Ireland, and Latin America. Restrictions on emissions of methane or carbon dioxide that have been or may be imposed in various U.S. states, at the U.S. federal level, or in other countries could adversely affect the oil and gas industry. Investor sentiment towards climate change, fossil fuels, and sustainability could adversely affect our business and our stock price. There have been efforts in recent years aimed at the investment community, including investment advisors, sovereign wealth funds, public pension funds, universities and other groups, to promote the divestment of shares of energy companies, as well as to pressure lenders and other financial services companies to limit or curtail activities with energy companies. If these efforts are successful, our stock price and our ability to access capital markets may be negatively impacted. Members of the investment community are also increasing their focus on sustainability practices, including practices related to GHGs and climate change, in the energy industry. As a result, we may face increasing pressure regarding our sustainability disclosures and practices. Additionally, members of the investment community may screen companies such as ours for sustainability performance before investing in our stock. If we are unable to meet the sustainability standards set by these investors, we may lose investors, our stock price may be negatively impacted and our reputation may be negatively affected. Severe weather events may have an adverse effect on our assets and operations. Severe weather events, such as storms, droughts, or floods, could have an adverse effect on our operations. Members within the scientific community believe that an increasing concentration of GHG emissions in the Earth’s atmosphere may contribute to climate changes that can have significant physical effects, including an increased frequency and severity of these types of events. Compliance with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) could adversely affect our performance. The U.S. EPA has implemented the RFS pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. The RFS program sets annual quotas for the quantity of renewable fuels (such as ethanol and diesel) that must be blended into transportation fuels consumed in the U.S. A Renewable Identification Number (RIN) is assigned to each gallon of renewable fuel produced in or imported into the U.S. As a producer of petroleum-based transportation fuels, we are obligated to blend renewable fuels into the products we produce at a rate that is at least commensurate to the U.S. EPA’s quota and, to the extent we do not, we must purchase RINs in the open market to satisfy our obligation under the RFS program. We are exposed to the volatility in the market price of RINs. We cannot predict the future prices of RINs. RINs prices are dependent upon a variety of factors, including U.S. EPA regulations, the availability of RINs for purchase, and levels of transportation fuels produced, which can vary significantly from quarter to quarter. If sufficient RINs are unavailable for purchase, if we have to pay a significantly higher price for RINs, or if we are otherwise unable to meet the U.S. EPA’s RFS mandates, our results of operations and cash flows could be adversely affected. Disruption of our ability to obtain crude oil could adversely affect our operations. A significant portion of our feedstock requirements is satisfied through supplies originating in the Middle East, Africa, Asia, North America, and South America. We are, therefore, subject to the political, geographic, and economic risks attendant to doing business with suppliers located in, and supplies originating from, these areas. If one or more of our supply contracts were terminated, or if political events disrupt our traditional crude oil supply, we believe that adequate alternative supplies of crude oil would be available, but it is possible that we would be unable to find alternative sources of supply. If we are unable to obtain adequate crude oil volumes or are able to obtain such volumes only at unfavorable prices, our results of operations could be materially adversely affected, including reduced sales volumes of refined petroleum products or reduced margins as a result of higher crude oil costs. In addition, the U.S. government can prevent or restrict us from doing business in or with other countries. These restrictions, and those of other governments, could limit our ability to gain access to business opportunities in various countries. Actions by both the U.S. and other countries have affected our operations in the past and will continue to do so in the future. Any attempt by the U.S. government to withdraw from or materially modify existing international trade agreements could adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations. The current U.S. administration has questioned certain existing and proposed trade agreements. For example, the administration withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. In addition, the administration has implemented and proposed various trade tariffs, which have resulted in foreign governments responding with tariffs on U.S. goods. Changes in U.S. social, political, regulatory, and economic conditions or in laws and policies governing foreign trade, manufacturing, development and investment could adversely affect our business. For example, the imposition of tariffs or other trade barriers with other countries could affect our ability to obtain feedstocks from international sources, increase our costs and reduce the competitiveness of our products. While there is currently a lack of certainty around the likelihood, timing, and details of any such policies and reforms, if the current U.S. administration takes action to withdraw from, or materially modify, existing international trade agreements, our business, financial condition, and results of operations could be adversely affected. We are subject to interruptions and increased costs as a result of our reliance on third-party transportation of crude oil and the products that we manufacture. We use the services of third parties to transport feedstocks to our facilities and to transport the products we manufacture to market. If we experience prolonged interruptions of supply or increases in costs to deliver our products to market, or if the ability of the pipelines, vessels, or railroads to transport feedstocks or products is disrupted because of weather events, accidents, derailment, collision, fire, explosion, governmental regulations, or third-party actions, it could have a material adverse effect on our financial position, results of operations, and liquidity. We may incur additional costs as a result of our use of rail cars for the transportation of crude oil and the products that we manufacture. We currently use rail cars for the transportation of some feedstocks to certain of our facilities and for the transportation of some of the products we manufacture to their markets. We own and lease rail cars for our operations. Rail transportation is subject to a variety of federal, state, and local regulations, as well as industry practices and customs. New laws and regulations, and changes in existing laws and regulations, are frequently enacted or proposed, and could result in increased expenditures for compliance, either directly through costs for our owned and leased rail assets, or as passed along to us by rail carriers and operators. For example, in the past several years, the Department of Transportation and various agencies within the Department of Transportation, including the Surface Transportation Board, the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, and the Federal Railroad Administration, have issued orders and rules pursuant to the Federal Railroad Safety Act of 1970, the Interstate Commerce Commission Termination Act of 1995, the Rail Safety Improvement Act of 2008, Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act of 2015 and other statutory authorities concerning such matters as enhanced tank car standards, positive train control and other operational controls, safety training programs, and notification requirements. The general trend has been toward greater regulation of rail transportation over recent years. We do not believe these orders and rules will have a material impact on our financial position, results of operations, and liquidity, although further changes in law, regulations, or industry practices could require us to incur additional costs to the extent they are applicable to us. Competitors that produce their own supply of feedstocks, own their own retail sites, have greater financial resources, or provide alternative energy sources may have a competitive advantage. The refining and marketing industry is highly competitive with respect to both feedstock supply and refined petroleum product markets. We compete with many companies for available supplies of crude oil and other feedstocks and for sites for our refined petroleum products. We do not produce any of our crude oil feedstocks and, following the separation of our retail business in 2013, we do not have a company-owned retail network. Many of our competitors, however, obtain a significant portion of their feedstocks from company-owned production and some have extensive retail sites. Such competitors are at times able to offset losses from refining operations with profits from producing or retailing operations, and may be better positioned to withstand periods of depressed refining margins or feedstock shortages. Some of our competitors also have materially greater financial and other resources than we have. Such competitors have a greater ability to bear the economic risks inherent in all phases of our industry. In addition, we compete with other industries that provide alternative means to satisfy the energy and fuel requirements of our industrial, commercial, and individual consumers. Uncertainty and illiquidity in credit and capital markets can impair our ability to obtain credit and financing on acceptable terms, and can adversely affect the financial strength of our business partners. Our ability to obtain credit and capital depends in large measure on capital markets and liquidity factors that we do not control. Our ability to access credit and capital markets may be restricted at a time when we would like, or need, to access those markets, which could have an impact on our flexibility to react to changing economic and business conditions. In addition, the cost and availability of debt and equity financing may be adversely impacted by unstable or illiquid market conditions. Protracted uncertainty and illiquidity in these markets also could have an adverse impact on our lenders, commodity hedging counterparties, or our customers, causing them to fail to meet their obligations to us. In addition, decreased returns on pension fund assets may also materially increase our pension funding requirements. Our access to credit and capital markets also depends on the credit ratings assigned to our debt by independent credit rating agencies. We currently maintain investment-grade ratings by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, Moody’s Investors Service, and Fitch Ratings on our senior unsecured debt. Ratings from credit agencies are not recommendations to buy, sell, or hold our securities. Each rating should be evaluated independently of any other rating. We cannot provide assurance that any of our current ratings will remain in effect for any given period of time or that a rating will not be lowered or withdrawn entirely by a rating agency if, in its judgment, circumstances so warrant. Specifically, if ratings agencies were to downgrade our long-term rating, particularly below investment grade, our borrowing costs may increase, which could adversely affect our ability to attract potential investors and our funding sources could decrease. In addition, we may not be able to obtain favorable credit terms from our suppliers or they may require us to provide collateral, letters of credit, or other forms of security, which would increase our operating costs. As a result, a downgrade below investment grade in our credit ratings could have a material adverse impact on our financial position, results of operations, and liquidity. From time to time, our cash needs may exceed our internally generated cash flow, and our business could be materially and adversely affected if we were unable to obtain necessary funds from financing activities. From time to time, we may need to supplement our cash generated from operations with proceeds from financing activities. We have existing revolving credit facilities, committed letter of credit facilities, and an accounts receivable sales facility to provide us with available financing to meet our ongoing cash needs. In addition, we rely on the counterparties to our derivative instruments to fund their obligations under such arrangements. Uncertainty and illiquidity in financial markets may materially impact the ability of the participating financial institutions and other counterparties to fund their commitments to us under our various financing facilities or our derivative instruments, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial position, results of operations, and liquidity. A significant interruption in one or more of our refineries could adversely affect our business. Our refineries are our principal operating assets. As a result, our operations could be subject to significant interruption if one or more of our refineries were to experience a major accident or mechanical failure, be damaged by severe weather or other natural or man-made disaster, such as an act of terrorism, or otherwise be forced to shut down. If any refinery were to experience an interruption in operations, earnings from the refinery could be materially adversely affected (to the extent not recoverable through insurance) because of lost production and repair costs. Significant interruptions in our refining system could also lead to increased volatility in prices for crude oil feedstocks and refined petroleum products, and could increase instability in the financial and insurance markets, making it more difficult for us to access capital and to obtain insurance coverage that we consider adequate. A significant interruption related to our information technology systems could adversely affect our business. Our information technology systems and network infrastructure may be subject to unauthorized access or attack, which could result in (i) a loss of intellectual property, proprietary information, or employee, customer or vendor data; (ii) public disclosure of sensitive information; (iii) increased costs to prevent, respond to, or mitigate cybersecurity events, such as deploying additional personnel and protection technologies, training employees, and engaging third-party experts and consultants; (iv) systems interruption; (v) disruption of our business operations; (vi) remediation costs for repairs of system damage; (vii) reputational damage that adversely affects customer or investor confidence; and (viii) damage to our competitiveness, stock price, and long-term stockholder value. A breach could also originate from, or compromise, our customers’ and vendors’ or other third-party networks outside of our control. A breach may also result in legal claims or proceedings against us by our shareholders, employees, customers, vendors, and governmental authorities (U.S. and non-U.S.). There can be no assurance that our infrastructure protection technologies and disaster recovery plans can prevent a technology systems breach or systems failure, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial position or results of operations. Furthermore, the continuing and evolving threat of cyberattacks has resulted in increased regulatory focus on prevention. To the extent we face increased regulatory requirements, we may be required to expend significant additional resources to meet such requirements. Increasing regulatory focus on privacy and security issues and expanding laws could expose us to increased liability, subject us to lawsuits, investigations and other liabilities and restrictions on our operations that could significantly and adversely affect our business. Along with our own data and information in the normal course of our business, we and our partners collect and retain certain data that is subject to specific laws and regulations. The transfer and use of this data both domestically and across international borders is becoming increasingly complex. This data is subject to governmental regulation at the federal, state, international, national, provincial and local levels in many areas of our business, including data privacy and security laws such as the European Union (EU) General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). The GDPR applies to activities regarding personal data that may be conducted by us, directly or indirectly through vendors and subcontractors, from an establishment in the EU. As interpretation and enforcement of the GDPR evolves, it creates a range of new compliance obligations, which could cause us to incur additional costs. Failure to comply could result in significant penalties of up to a maximum of 4 percent of our global turnover that may materially adversely affect our business, reputation, results of operations, and cash flows. The CCPA, which came into effect on January 1, 2020, gives California residents specific rights in relation to their personal information, requires that companies take certain actions, including notifications for security incidents and may apply to activities regarding personal information that is collected by us, directly or indirectly, from California residents. As interpretation and enforcement of the CCPA evolves, it creates a range of new compliance obligations, with the possibility for significant financial penalties for noncompliance that may materially adversely affect our business, reputation, results of operations, and cash flows. The GDPR and CCPA, as well as other data privacy laws that may become applicable to our business, pose increasingly complex compliance challenges and potentially elevate our costs. Any failure by us to comply with these laws and regulations, including as a result of a security or privacy breach, could result in significant penalties and liabilities for us. Additionally, if we acquire a company that has violated or is not in compliance with applicable data protection laws, we may incur significant liabilities and penalties as a result. Our business may be negatively affected by work stoppages, slowdowns or strikes by our employees, as well as new labor legislation issued by regulators. Workers at some of our refineries are covered by collective bargaining or similar agreements. To the extent we are in negotiations for labor agreements expiring in the future, there is no assurance an agreement will be reached without a strike, work stoppage, or other labor action. Any prolonged strike, work stoppage, or other labor action could have an adverse effect on our financial condition or results of operations. In addition, future federal, state, or foreign labor legislation could result in labor shortages and higher costs, especially during critical maintenance periods. We are subject to operational risks and our insurance may not be sufficient to cover all potential losses arising from operating hazards. Failure by one or more insurers to honor its coverage commitments for an insured event could materially and adversely affect our financial position, results of operations, and liquidity. Our operations are subject to various hazards common to the industry, including explosions, fires, toxic emissions, maritime hazards, and natural catastrophes. As protection against these hazards, we maintain insurance coverage against some, but not all, potential losses and liabilities. We may not be able to maintain or obtain insurance of the type and amount we desire at reasonable rates. As a result of market conditions, premiums and deductibles for certain of our insurance policies could increase substantially. In some instances, certain insurance could become unavailable or available only for reduced amounts of coverage. For example, coverage for hurricane damage is very limited, and coverage for terrorism risks includes very broad exclusions. If we were to incur a significant liability for which we were not fully insured, it could have a material adverse effect on our financial position, results of operations, and liquidity. Our insurance program includes a number of insurance carriers. Significant disruptions in financial markets could lead to a deterioration in the financial condition of many financial institutions, including insurance companies. We can make no assurances that we will be able to obtain the full amount of our insurance coverage for insured events. Large capital projects can take many years to complete, and market conditions could deteriorate over time, negatively impacting project returns. We may engage in capital projects based on the forecasted project economics and level of return on the capital to be employed in the project. Large-scale projects take many years to complete, and market conditions can change from our forecast. As a result, we may be unable to fully realize our expected returns, which could negatively impact our financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows. Compliance with and changes in tax laws could adversely affect our performance. We are subject to extensive tax liabilities imposed by multiple jurisdictions, including income taxes, indirect taxes (excise/duty, sales/use, gross receipts, and value-added taxes), payroll taxes, franchise taxes, withholding taxes, and ad valorem taxes. New tax laws and regulations and changes in existing tax laws and regulations are continuously being enacted or proposed that could result in increased expenditures for tax liabilities in the future. Many of these liabilities are subject to periodic audits by the respective taxing authority. Subsequent changes to our tax liabilities as a result of these audits may subject us to interest and penalties. On December 22, 2017, tax legislation commonly known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (Tax Reform) was enacted. Among other things, Tax Reform reduced the U.S. corporate income tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent and implemented a new system of taxation for non-U.S. earnings, including by imposing a one-time tax on the deemed repatriation of undistributed earnings of non-U.S. subsidiaries. Tax Reform also generally (i) repealed the manufacturing deduction we previously were able to claim, (ii) resulted in a shift from a worldwide system of taxation to a territorial system of taxation, resulting in a minimum tax on the income of international subsidiaries (the GILTI tax) rather than a tax deferral on such earnings in certain circumstances, (iii) limits our annual deductions for interest expense to no more than 30 percent of our “adjusted taxable income” (plus 100 percent of our business interest income) for the year and (iv) permits us to offset only 80 percent (rather than 100 percent) of our taxable income with any net operating losses we generate after 2017. We have evaluated the effects of Tax Reform, including the one-time deemed repatriation tax and the re-measurement of our deferred tax assets and liabilities, and the provisions of Tax Reform, taken as a whole, did not have an adverse impact on our cash tax liabilities, results of operations, or financial condition. We have used reasonable interpretations and assumptions in applying Tax Reform, but it is possible that the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) could issue subsequent guidance or take positions on audit that differ from our prior interpretations and assumptions, which could adversely impact our cash tax liabilities, results of operations, and financial condition. Our investments in joint ventures and other entities decrease our ability to manage risk. We conduct some of our operations through joint ventures in which we may share control over certain economic and business interests with our joint venture partners and in some entities in which we have no ownership or control. Our joint venture partners may have economic, business or legal interests or goals that are inconsistent with our goals and interests or may be unable to meet their obligations. Failure by us, or an entity in which we have a joint-venture interest, to adequately manage the risks associated with any acquisitions or joint ventures could have a material adverse effect on our, or our joint ventures’, financial position, results of operations, and liquidity. We may incur losses and additional costs as a result of our forward-contract activities and derivative transactions. We currently use commodity derivative instruments, and we expect to continue their use in the future. If the instruments we use to hedge our exposure to various types of risk are not effective, we may incur losses. In addition, we may be required to incur additional costs in connection with future regulation of derivative instruments to the extent it is applicable to us. Changes in the method of determining the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), or the replacement of LIBOR with an alternative reference rate, may adversely affect interest rates. On July 27, 2017, the Financial Conduct Authority in the U.K. announced that it would phase out LIBOR as a benchmark by the end of 2021. It is unclear whether new methods of calculating LIBOR will be established such that it continues to exist after 2021, or whether different benchmark rates used to price indebtedness will develop. In the future, we may need to renegotiate our financial agreements, including, but not limited to, our revolving credit facility (the Valero Revolver), or incur other indebtedness, and the phase-out of LIBOR may negatively impact the terms of such indebtedness. In addition, the overall financial market may be disrupted as a result of the phase-out or replacement of LIBOR. Disruption in the financial market could have a material adverse effect on our financial position, results of operations, and liquidity. Changes in the U.K.’s economic and other relationships with the EU could adversely affect us. In June 2016, the U.K. elected to withdraw from the EU in a national referendum (Brexit). The U.K. withdrew from the EU on January 31, 2020, consistent with the terms of the EU-U.K. Withdrawal Agreement. The terms of that agreement provide for a transition period, from January 31, 2020 to December 31, 2020, during which the trading relationship between the U.K. and the EU will remain the same while the U.K. and the EU try to negotiate an agreement regarding their future trading relationship. The ultimate effects of Brexit will depend on whether an agreement is reached, or on the specific terms of any such agreement that is reached, either of which outcomes could adversely impact the ability to trade freely between the U.K. and the EU at the end of the transition period and could negatively impact our competitive position, supplier and customer relationships, and financial performance. ITEM 1B.