UPS, §1A diff (2016 → 2017)

Item 1A. Risk Factors You should carefully consider the following factors, which could materially affect our business, financial condition or results of operations. You should read these Risk Factors in conjunction with “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Item 7 and our Consolidated Financial Statements and related notes in Item 8. General economic conditions, both in the U.S. and internationally, may adversely affect our results of operations. We conduct operations in over 220 countries and territories. Our U.S. and international operations are subject to normal cycles affecting the economy in general, as well as the local economic environments in which we operate. The factors that create cyclical changes to the economy and to our business are beyond our control, may adversely impact our credit rating and it may be difficult for us to adjust our business model to mitigate the impact of these factors. In particular, our business is affected by levels of industrial production, consumer spending and retail activity and our business, financial position and results of operations could be materially affected by adverse developments in these aspects of the economy. The United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union could result in economic uncertainty and instability, resulting in fewer goods being transported globally. We face significant competition which could adversely affect our business, financial position and results of operations. We face significant competition on a local, regional, national and international basis. Our competitors include the postal services of the U.S. and other nations, various motor carriers, express companies, freight forwarders, air couriers and others. Competition may also come from other sources in the future. Some of our competitors have cost and organizational structures that differ from ours and may offer services and pricing terms that we may not be willing or able to offer. If we are unable to timely and appropriately respond to competitive pressures, our business, financial position and results of operations could be adversely affected. The transportation industry continues to consolidate and competition remains strong. As a result of consolidation, our competitors may increase their market share and improve their financial capacity, and may strengthen their competitive positions. Business combinations could also result in competitors providing a wider variety of services and products at competitive prices, which could adversely affect our financial performance. Changes in our relationships with our significant customers, including the loss or reduction in business from one or more of them, could have an adverse impact on us. No single customer accounts for 10% or more of our consolidated revenue. We do not believe the loss of any single customer would materially impair our overall financial condition or results of operations; however, collectively, some of our large customers might account for a relatively significant portion of the growth in revenue in a particular quarter or year. These customers can drive the growth in revenue for particular services based on factors such as: new customer product launches; trends in the e-commerce industry, such as the seasonality associated with the fourth quarter holiday season; business mergers and acquisitions and the overall fast growth of a customer's underlying business. These customers could choose to divert all or a portion of their business with us to one of our competitors, demand pricing concessions for our services, require us to provide enhanced services that increase our costs, or develop their own shipping and distribution capabilities. If these factors drove some of our large customers to cancel all or a portion of their business relationships with us, it could materially impact the growth in our business and the ability to meet our current and long-term financial forecasts. Our business is subject to complex and stringent regulation in the U.S. and internationally. We are subject to complex and stringent aviation, transportation, environmental, security, labor, employment and other governmental laws, regulations and policies, both in the U.S. and in the other countries in which we operate. In addition, our business is impacted by laws, regulations and policies that affect global trade, including tariff and trade policies, export requirements, taxes, monetary policies and other restrictions and charges. Changes in laws, regulations and policies and the related interpretations may alter the landscape in which we do business and may affect our costs of doing business. The impact of new laws, regulations and policies cannot be predicted. Compliance with new laws and regulations may increase our operating costs or require significant capital expenditures. Any failure to comply with applicable laws or regulations in the U.S. or in any of the countries in which we operate could result in substantial fines or possible revocation of our authority to conduct our operations, which could adversely affect our financial performance. Increased security requirements could impose substantial costs on us and we could be the target of an attack or have a security breach. As a result of concerns about global terrorism and homeland security, governments around the world have adopted or may adopt stricter security requirements that will result in increased operating costs for businesses in the transportation industry. These requirements may change periodically as a result of regulatory and legislative requirements and in response to evolving threats. We cannot determine the effect that these new requirements will have on our cost structure or our operating results, and these rules or other future security requirements may increase our costs of operations and reduce operating efficiencies. Regardless of our compliance with security requirements or the steps we take to secure our facilities or fleet, we could be the target of an attack or security breaches could occur, which could adversely affect our operations or our reputation. We are subject to increasingly stringent regulations related to climate change, and new regulations could materially increase our operating costs. Concern over climate change, including the impact of global warming, has led to significant legislative and regulatory efforts, particularly internationally but also in the United States, to limit greenhouse gas (“GHG”) emissions. State and local governments also are increasingly considering GHG regulation. The possibility of increased regulation of GHG emissions potentially exposes our transportation and logistics businesses to significant new taxes, fees and other costs. Compliance with such potential regulation or the associated potential costs is further complicated by the fact that various countries and regions are following different approaches to the regulation of climate change. We are subject to international regulation of GHG emissions. For example, in 2009 the European Commission approved the extension to the airline industry of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (“ETS”) for GHG emissions. Under this decision, all of our flights operating within the European Union are covered by the ETS requirements, and we are required annually to purchase emission allowances in an amount exceeding the number of free allowances allocated to us under the ETS. Similarly, in 2016, the International Civil Aviation Organization (“ICAO”) passed a resolution adopting the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (“CORSIA”), which is a global, market-based emissions offset program to encourage carbon-neutral growth beyond 2020. A pilot phase is scheduled to begin in 2021 in which countries may voluntarily participate, and full mandatory participation is scheduled to begin in 2027. ICAO continues to develop details regarding implementation, but compliance with CORSIA will increase our operating costs. In the U.S., Congress in the past several years has considered various bills that would regulate GHG emissions, but these bills so far have not received sufficient Congressional support for enactment. Nevertheless, some form of federal climate change legislation is possible in the future. Even in the absence of such legislation, the Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA”), spurred by judicial interpretation of the Clean Air Act, could determine to regulate GHG emissions, especially aircraft or diesel engine emissions, and this could impose substantial costs on us. In August 2017, the U.S. announced its intention to withdraw from the Paris climate accord, an agreement among 196 countries to reduce GHG emissions, and the effect of that withdrawal on future U.S. policy regarding GHG emissions, on CORSIA and on other GHG regulation is uncertain. Nevertheless, the extent to which other countries implement that agreement could have an adverse direct or indirect effect on our business. We may face additional regulations regarding GHG emissions internationally and in the United States. Potential costs to us of increased regulation regarding GHG emissions, especially aircraft or diesel engine emissions, include an increase in the cost of the fuel and other energy we purchase and capital costs associated with updating or replacing our aircraft or vehicles prematurely. However, until the timing, scope and extent of any future regulation becomes known, we cannot predict its effect on our cost structure or our operating results. It is reasonably possible that such regulation could significantly increase our operating expenses if we are unable to pass such costs along to our customers. Moreover, even without such regulation, increased awareness and any adverse publicity in the global marketplace about the GHGs emitted by companies in the airline and transportation industries could harm our reputation and reduce customer demand for our services, especially our air services. Strikes, work stoppages and slowdowns by our employees could adversely affect our business, financial position and results of operations. A significant number of our employees are employed under a national master agreement and various supplemental agreements with local unions affiliated with the Teamsters. In addition, our airline pilots, airline mechanics, ground mechanics and certain other employees are employed under other collective bargaining agreements. Strikes, work stoppages and slowdowns by our employees could adversely affect our ability to meet our customers' needs, and customers may do more business with competitors if they believe that such actions or threatened actions may adversely affect our ability to provide services. We may face a permanent loss of customers if we are unable to provide uninterrupted service, and this could adversely affect our business, financial position and results of operations. The terms of future collective bargaining agreements also may affect our competitive position and results of operations. We are exposed to the effects of changing prices of energy, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and interruptions in supplies of these commodities. Changing fuel and energy costs may have a significant impact on our operations. We require significant quantities of fuel for our aircraft and delivery vehicles and are exposed to the risk associated with variations in the market price for petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. We mitigate our exposure to changing fuel prices through our indexed fuel surcharges and we may also enter into hedging transactions from time to time. If we are unable to maintain or increase our fuel surcharges, higher fuel costs could adversely impact our operating results. Even if we are able to offset the cost of fuel with our surcharges, high fuel surcharges may result in a mix shift from our higher-yielding air products to lower-yielding ground products or an overall reduction in volume. There can be no assurance that our hedging transactions will be effective to protect us from changes in fuel prices. Moreover, we could experience a disruption in energy supplies, including our supply of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, as a result of war, actions by producers or other factors beyond our control, which could have an adverse effect on our business. Changes in exchange rates or interest rates may have an adverse effect on our results. We conduct business across the globe with a significant portion of our revenue derived from operations outside the United States. Our operations in international markets are affected by changes in the exchange rates for local currencies, and in particular the Euro, British Pound Sterling, Canadian Dollar, Chinese Renminbi and Hong Kong Dollar. We are exposed to changes in interest rates, primarily on our short-term debt and that portion of our long-term debt that carries floating interest rates. The impact of a 100-basis-point change in interest rates affecting our debt is discussed in the “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk” section of this report. Additionally, changes in interest rates impact the valuation of our pension and postretirement benefit obligations and the related benefit cost recognized in the income statement. The impact of changes in interest rates on our pension and postretirement benefit obligations and costs is discussed further in the "Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates" section of this report. We monitor and manage our exposures to changes in currency exchange rates and interest rates, and make use of derivative instruments to mitigate the impact of changes in these rates on our financial position and results of operations; however, changes in exchange rates and interest rates cannot always be predicted or hedged. If we are unable to maintain our brand image and corporate reputation, our business may suffer. Our success depends in part on our ability to maintain the image of the UPS brand and our reputation for providing excellent service to our customers. Service quality issues, actual or perceived, even when false or unfounded, could tarnish the image of our brand and may cause customers to use other companies. Also, adverse publicity surrounding labor relations, environmental concerns, security matters, political activities and the like, or attempts to connect our company to these sorts of issues, either in the United States or other countries in which we operate, could negatively affect our overall reputation and acceptance of our services by customers. Damage to our reputation and loss of brand equity could reduce demand for our services and thus have an adverse effect on our business, financial position and results of operations, and could require additional resources to rebuild our reputation and restore the value of our brand. A significant data breach or IT system disruption could adversely affect our business, financial results, or reputation, and we may be required to increase our spending on data and system security. We rely heavily on information technology networks and systems, including the Internet, to manage or support a wide variety of important business processes and activities throughout our operations. For example, we rely on information technology to receive package level information in advance of physical receipt of packages, to track items that move through our delivery systems, to efficiently plan deliveries, to execute billing processes, and to track and report financial and operational data. Our franchised center locations and businesses we have acquired also are reliant on the use of information technology systems to manage their business processes and activities. In addition, the provision of service to our customers and the operation of our networks and systems involve the storage and transmission of significant amounts of proprietary information and sensitive or confidential data, including personal information of customers, employees and others. To conduct our operations, we regularly move data across national borders, and consequently we are subject to a variety of continuously evolving and developing laws and regulations in the United States and abroad regarding privacy, data protection and data security. The scope of the laws that may be applicable to us is often uncertain and may be conflicting, particularly with respect to foreign laws. For example, the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (“GDPR”), which greatly increases the jurisdictional reach of European Union law and adds a broad array of requirements for handling personal data, including the public disclosure of significant data breaches, becomes effective in May 2018. Other countries have enacted or are enacting data localization laws that require data to stay within their borders. All of these evolving compliance and operational requirements impose significant costs that are likely to increase over time. Our information technology systems (as well as those of our franchisees and acquired businesses) may be susceptible to damage, disruptions or shutdowns due to failures during the process of upgrading or replacing software, databases or components thereof, power outages, hardware failures, computer viruses, cyber-attacks, ransomware attacks, malware attacks, malicious employees or other insiders, telecommunications failures, human errors or catastrophic events. Hackers, foreign governments, cyber-terrorists and cyber-criminals, acting individually or in coordinated groups, may launch distributed denial of service attacks or other coordinated attacks that may cause service outages, gain inappropriate or block legitimate access to systems or information, or result in other interruptions in our business. In addition, breaches in security could expose us, our customers and franchisees, or the individuals affected, to a risk of loss or misuse of proprietary information and sensitive or confidential data, including personal information of customers, employees and others. The techniques used to obtain unauthorized access, disable or degrade service or sabotage systems change frequently, may be difficult to detect for a long time and often are not recognized until launched against a target. As a result, we may be unable to anticipate these techniques or to implement adequate preventative measures. We also depend on and interact with the information technology networks and systems of third-parties for many aspects of our business operations, including our customers and franchisees and service providers such as cloud service providers and third-party delivery services. These third parties may have access to information we maintain about our company, operations, customers, employees and vendors, or operating systems that are critical to or can significantly impact our business operations. Like us, these third-parties are subject to risks imposed by data breaches and cyber-attacks and other events or actions that could damage, disrupt or close down their networks or systems. Security processes, protocols and standards that we have implemented and contractual provisions requiring security measures that we may have sought to impose on such third-parties may not be sufficient or effective at preventing such events, which could result in unauthorized access to, or disruptions or denials of access to, or misuse of, information or systems that are important to our business, including proprietary information, sensitive or confidential data, and other information about our operations, customers, employees and suppliers, including personal information. Any of these events that impact our information technology networks or systems, or those of acquired businesses, franchisees, customers, service providers or other third-parties, could result in disruptions in our operations, the loss of existing or potential customers, damage to our brand and reputation, regulatory scrutiny, and litigation and potential liability for the company. Among other consequences, our customers’ confidence in our ability to protect data and systems and to provide services consistent with their expectations could be impacted, further disrupting our operations. Similarly, an actual or alleged failure to comply with applicable U.S. or foreign data protection regulations or other data protection standards may expose us to litigation, fines, sanctions or other penalties. We have invested and continue to invest in technology security initiatives, information technology risk management and disaster recovery plans. The cost and operational consequences of implementing, maintaining and enhancing further data or system protection measures could increase significantly to overcome increasingly intense, complex and sophisticated global cyber threats. Despite our best efforts, we are not fully insulated from data breaches and system disruptions. For example, in August 2014, a broad-based malware intrusion targeting retailers throughout the U.S. was discovered and subsequently eradicated at approximately 1% of our franchisees’ locations. While the impact of this cyber-attack, including the costs associated with investigation and remediation activities, was not material to our business and our financial results, there is no assurance that such impacts will not be material in the future, and our efforts to deter, identify, mitigate and/or eliminate future breaches may require significant additional effort and expense and may not be successful. Severe weather or other natural or manmade disasters could adversely affect our business. Severe weather conditions and other natural or manmade disasters, including storms, floods, fires or earthquakes, epidemics or pandemics, conflicts or unrest, or terrorist attacks, may result in decreased revenues, as our customers reduce their shipments, or increased costs to operate our business, which could have an adverse effect on our results of operations for a quarter or year. Any such event affecting one of our major facilities could result in a significant interruption in or disruption of our business. We make significant capital investments in our business of which a significant portion is tied to projected volume levels. We require significant capital investments in our business consisting of aircraft, vehicles, technology, facilities and sorting and other types of equipment to support both our existing business and anticipated growth. Forecasting projected volume involves many factors which are subject to uncertainty, such as general economic trends, changes in governmental regulation and competition. If we do not accurately forecast our future capital investment needs, we could have excess capacity or insufficient capacity, either of which would negatively affect our revenues and profitability. In addition to forecasting our capital investment requirements, we adjust other elements of our operations and cost structure in response to adverse economic conditions; however, these adjustments may not be sufficient to allow us to maintain our operating margins in a weak economy. We derive a significant portion of our revenues from our international operations and are subject to the risks of doing business in international markets. We have significant international operations, and while the geographical diversity of our international operations helps ensure that we are not overly reliant on a single region or country, we are continually exposed to changing economic, political and social developments that are beyond our control. Emerging markets are typically more volatile than those in the developed world, and any broad-based downturn in these markets could reduce our revenues and adversely affect our business, financial position and results of operations. We are subject to many laws governing our international operations, including those that prohibit improper payments to government officials and commercial customers, and restrict where we can do business, our shipments to certain countries and the information that we can provide to non-U.S. governments. We are subject to changes in markets and our business plans that have resulted, and may in the future result, in substantial write-downs of the carrying value of our assets, thereby reducing our net income. Our regular review of the carrying value of our assets has resulted, from time to time, in significant impairments, and we may in the future be required to recognize additional impairment charges. Changes in business strategy, government regulations, or economic or market conditions have resulted and may result in further substantial impairments of our intangible, fixed or other assets at any time in the future. In addition, we have been and may be required in the future to recognize increased depreciation and amortization charges if we determine that the useful lives of our fixed assets or intangible assets are shorter than we originally estimated. Such changes could reduce our net income. Employee health and retiree health and pension benefit costs represent a significant expense to us. Our expenses relating to employee health and retiree health and pension benefits are significant. In recent years, we have experienced significant increases in some of these costs, largely as a result of economic factors beyond our control, including, in particular, ongoing increases in healthcare costs well in excess of the rate of inflation and historically low discount rates that we use to value our benefit plan obligations. Continually increasing healthcare costs, volatility in investment returns and discount rates, as well as changes in laws, regulations and assumptions used to calculate retiree health and pension benefit expenses, may adversely affect our business, financial position, results of operations or require significant contributions to our benefit plans. The national master agreement with the IBT includes changes that are designed to mitigate certain of these healthcare expenses, but there can be no assurance that our efforts will be successful or that the failure or success of these efforts will not adversely affect our business, financial position, results of operations or liquidity. We participate in a number of trustee-managed multiemployer pension and health and welfare plans for employees covered under collective bargaining agreements. As part of the overall collective bargaining process for wage and benefit levels, we have agreed to contribute certain amounts to the multiemployer benefit plans during the contract period. The multiemployer benefit plans set benefit levels and are responsible for benefit delivery to participants. Future contribution amounts to multiemployer benefit plans will be determined only through collective bargaining, and we have no additional legal or constructive obligation to increase contributions beyond the agreed-upon amounts (except potential surcharges under the Pension Protection Act of 2006 in the event that a plan enters critical status, and our contributions are not sufficient to satisfy any rehabilitation plan funding schedule). In future collective bargaining negotiations, we could agree to make significantly higher future contributions to improve the funded status of one or more of these plans. The funded status of these multiemployer plans is impacted by various factors, including investment performance, healthcare inflation, changes in demographics and changes in participant benefit levels. At this time, we are unable to determine the amount of additional future contributions, if any, or whether any material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations or liquidity could result from our participation in these plans. In addition to our on-going multiemployer pension plan obligations, we may have additional exposure with respect to benefits earned in the Central States Pension Fund (the "CSPF"). UPS was a contributing employer to the CSPF until 2007 when we withdrew from the plan and fully funded our allocable share of unfunded vested benefits by paying a $6.1 billion withdrawal liability. Under a collective bargaining agreement with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters (“IBT”), UPS agreed to provide coordinating benefits in the UPS/IBT Full Time Employee Pension Plan (“UPS/IBT Plan”) for UPS participants whose last employer was UPS and who had not retired as of January 1, 2008 (“the UPS Transfer Group”) in the event that benefits are lawfully reduced by the CSPF in the future consistent with the terms of our withdrawal agreement with the CSPF. In December 2014, Congress passed the Multiemployer Pension Reform Act (“MPRA”), which for the first time ever allowed multiemployer pension plans to reduce benefit payments to retirees, subject to specific guidelines in the statute and government approval. In September 2015, the CSPF submitted a proposed pension benefit reduction plan to the U.S. Department of the Treasury under the MPRA. The CSPF plan proposed to reduce retirement benefits to the CSPF participants, including the UPS Transfer Group. We vigorously challenged the proposed benefit reduction plan because we believed that it did not comply with the law and that the CSPF failed to comply with its contractual obligation to obtain our consent to reduce benefits to the UPS Transfer Group under the terms of the withdrawal agreement with the CSPF. On May 6, 2016, the U.S. Department of the Treasury rejected the proposed plan submitted by the CSPF, stating that it failed to satisfy a number of requirements set forth in the MPRA. The CSPF has asserted that it will become insolvent in 2025, which could lead to the reduction of retirement benefits. Although there are numerous factors that could affect the CSPF’s funding status, if the CSPF were to become insolvent as they have projected, UPS may be required to provide coordinating benefits, thereby increasing the current projected benefit obligation for the UPS/IBT Plan by approximately $4 billion. The CSPF has said that it believes a legislative solution to its funding status is necessary, and we expect that the CSPF will continue to explore options to avoid insolvency. The potential obligation to pay coordinating benefits from the UPS/IBT Plan is subject to a number of significant uncertainties, including actions that may be taken by the CSPF, the federal government or others. These actions include whether the CSPF will submit a revised pension benefit reduction plan or otherwise seek federal government assistance, the extent to which benefits are paid by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, our ability to successfully defend our legal positions as well as the effect of discount rates, CSPF asset returns and various other actuarial assumptions. We account for this potential obligation under Accounting Standards Codification Topic 715- Compensation- Retirement Benefits (“ASC 715”). Under ASC 715 we are required to provide a best estimate of various actuarial assumptions, including the eventual outcome of this matter, in measuring our pension benefit obligation at the December 31st measurement date. While we currently believe the most likely solution to this matter and the broader systemic problems facing multiemployer pension plans is intervention by the federal government, ASC 715 does not permit anticipation of changes in law in making a best estimate of pension liabilities. Our best estimate as of the measurement date of December 31, 2017 does not incorporate this solution. However, if a future change in law resulted in an obligation to provide coordinating benefits under the UPS/IBT Plan, it may be a significant event, and may require us to remeasure the plan assets and projected benefit obligation of the UPS/IBT Plan at the date the law is enacted. Our best estimate of the next most likely outcome to resolve the CSPF’s solvency concerns is that the CSPF will submit another benefit suspension application under the MPRA to forestall insolvency without reducing benefits to the UPS Transfer Group. If the CSPF attempts to reduce benefits for the UPS Transfer Group under a MPRA filing, we would be in a strong legal position to prevent that from occurring given that these benefits cannot be reduced without our consent and such a reduction, without first exhausting reductions to other groups in the CSPF, would be contrary to the statute. Accordingly, our best estimate as of the measurement date of December 31, 2017 is that there is no liability to be recognized for additional coordinating benefits of the UPS/IBT Plan. However, the projected benefit obligation could materially increase as the uncertainties are resolved. We will continue to assess the impact of these uncertainties on the projected benefit obligation of the UPS/IBT Plan in accordance with ASC 715. We may have additional tax liabilities. We are subject to income taxes in the U.S. and many foreign jurisdictions. Significant judgment is required in determining our worldwide provision for income taxes. In the course of our business, there are many transactions and calculations where the ultimate tax determination is uncertain. For example, compliance with the 2017 United States Tax Cut and Jobs Act (the “Tax Act”) may require the collection of information not regularly produced within our company, the use of provisional estimates in our financial statements, and the exercise of significant judgment in accounting for its provisions. Many aspects of the Tax Act are unclear and may not be clarified for some time. As regulations and guidance evolve with respect to the Tax Act, and as we gather more information and perform more analysis, our results may differ from previous estimates and may materially affect our financial position. We regularly are under audit by tax authorities in different jurisdictions. Economic and political pressures to increase tax revenue in various jurisdictions may make resolving tax disputes favorably more difficult. Although we believe our tax estimates are reasonable, the final determination of tax audits and any related litigation in the jurisdictions where we are subject to taxation could be materially different from our historical income tax provisions and accruals. In addition, changes in U.S. federal and state or international tax laws applicable to corporate multinationals, other fundamental law changes currently being considered by many countries, including in the U.S., and changes in taxing jurisdictions’ administrative interpretations, decisions, policies and positions may materially adversely impact our tax expense and cash flows. We may be subject to various claims and lawsuits that could result in significant expenditures. The nature of our business exposes us to the potential for various claims and litigation related to labor and employment, personal injury, property damage, business practices, environmental liability and other matters. Any material litigation or a catastrophic accident or series of accidents could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial position and results of operations. We may not realize the anticipated benefits of acquisitions, joint ventures or strategic alliances. As part of our business strategy, we may acquire businesses and form joint ventures or strategic alliances. Whether we realize the anticipated benefits from these transactions depends, in part, upon the successful integration between the businesses involved, the performance of the underlying operations, capabilities or technologies and the management of the acquired operations. Accordingly, our financial results could be adversely affected by our failure to effectively integrate the acquired operations, unanticipated performance issues, transaction-related charges or charges for impairment of long-term assets that we acquire. Insurance and claims expenses could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. We have a combination of both self-insurance and high-deductible insurance programs for the risks arising out of the services we provide and the nature of our global operations, including claims exposure resulting from cargo loss, personal injury, property damage, aircraft and related liabilities, business interruption and workers' compensation. Workers' compensation, automobile and general liabilities are determined using actuarial estimates of the aggregate liability for claims incurred and an estimate of incurred but not reported claims, on an undiscounted basis. Our accruals for insurance reserves reflect certain actuarial assumptions and management judgments, which are subject to a high degree of variability. If the number or severity of claims for which we are retaining risk increases, our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected. If we lose our ability to self-insure these risks, our insurance costs could materially increase and we may find it difficult to obtain adequate levels of insurance coverage. Item 1B.