PM, §1A diff (2019 → 2020)

Item 1A. Risk Factors. The following risk factors should be read carefully in connection with evaluating our business and the forward-looking statements contained in this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Any of the following risks could materially adversely affect our business, our operating results, our financial condition and the actual outcome of matters as to which forward-looking statements are made in this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements We may from time to time make written or oral forward-looking statements, including statements contained in this Annual Report on Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC, in reports to stockholders and in press releases and investor webcasts. You can identify these forward-looking statements by use of words such as "strategy," "expects," "continues," "plans," "anticipates," "believes," "will," "estimates," "intends," "projects," "aims," "goals," "targets," "forecasts" and other words of similar meaning. You can also identify them by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. We cannot guarantee that any forward-looking statement will be realized, although we believe we have been prudent in our plans and assumptions. Our RRPs constitute a new product category in its early stages that is less predictable than our mature cigarette business. Achievement of future results is subject to risks, uncertainties and inaccurate assumptions. Should known or unknown risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove inaccurate, actual results could vary materially from those anticipated, estimated or projected. Investors should bear this in mind as they consider forward-looking statements and whether to invest in or remain invested in our securities. In connection with the “safe harbor” provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, we are identifying important factors that, individually or in the aggregate, could cause actual results and outcomes to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements made by us; any such statement is qualified by reference to the following cautionary statements. We elaborate on these and other risks we face throughout this document, particularly in Item 7, Business Environment. You should understand that it is not possible to predict or identify all risk factors. Consequently, you should not consider the following to be a complete discussion of all potential risks or uncertainties. We do not undertake to update any forward-looking statement that we may make from time to time, except in the normal course of our public disclosure obligations. Overall Business Risks Consumption of tax-paid cigarettes continues to decline in many of our markets. This decline is due to multiple factors, including increased taxes and pricing, governmental actions, the diminishing social acceptance of smoking and health concerns, continuing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, and the continuing prevalence of illicit products. These factors and their potential consequences are discussed more fully below and in Item 7, Business Environment. Cigarettes are subject to substantial taxes. Significant increases in cigarette-related taxes have been proposed or enacted and are likely to continue to be proposed or enacted in numerous jurisdictions. These tax increases may disproportionately affect our profitability and make us less competitive versus certain of our competitors. Tax regimes, including excise taxes, sales taxes and import duties, can disproportionately affect the retail price of cigarettes versus other combustible tobacco products, or disproportionately affect the relative retail price of our cigarette brands versus cigarette brands manufactured by certain of our competitors. Because our portfolio is weighted toward the premium-price cigarette category, tax regimes based on sales price can place us at a competitive disadvantage in certain markets. As a result, our volume and profitability may be adversely affected in these markets. Increases in cigarette taxes are expected to continue to have an adverse impact on our sales of cigarettes, due to resulting lower consumption levels, a shift in sales from manufactured cigarettes to other combustible tobacco products and from the premium-price to the mid-price or low-price cigarette categories, where we may be under-represented, from local sales to legal cross-border purchases of lower price products, or to illicit products such as contraband, counterfeit and "illicit whites." Our business faces significant governmental action aimed at increasing regulatory requirements with the goal of reducing or preventing the use of tobacco products. Governmental actions, combined with the diminishing social acceptance of smoking and private actions to restrict smoking, have resulted in reduced industry volume in many of our markets, and we expect that such factors will continue to reduce consumption levels and will increase down-trading and the risk of counterfeiting, contraband, "illicit whites" and legal cross-border purchases. Significant regulatory developments will continue to take place over the next few years in most of our markets, driven principally by the World Health Organization's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control ("FCTC"). Since it came into force in 2005, the FCTC has led to increased efforts by tobacco control advocates and public health organizations to promote increasingly restrictive regulatory measures on the marketing and sale of tobacco products to adult smokers. Regulatory initiatives that have been proposed, introduced or enacted include: •restrictions on or licensing of outlets permitted to sell cigarettes; •the levying of substantial and increasing tax and duty charges; •restrictions or bans on advertising, marketing and sponsorship; •the display of larger health warnings, graphic health warnings and other labeling requirements; •restrictions on packaging design, including the use of colors, and mandating plain packaging; •restrictions on packaging and cigarette formats and dimensions; •restrictions or bans on the display of tobacco product packaging at the point of sale and restrictions or bans on vending machines; •requirements regarding testing, disclosure and performance standards for tar, nicotine, carbon monoxide and other smoke constituents; •disclosure, restrictions, or bans of tobacco product ingredients; •increased restrictions on smoking and use of tobacco and nicotine-containing products in public and work places and, in some instances, in private places and outdoors; •restrictions or prohibitions of novel tobacco or nicotine-containing products; •elimination of duty free sales and duty free allowances for travelers; •encouraging litigation against tobacco companies; and •excluding tobacco companies from transparent public dialogue regarding public health and other policy matters. Our financial results could be significantly affected by regulatory initiatives resulting in a significant decrease in demand for our brands. More specifically, requirements that lead to a commoditization of tobacco products or impede adult consumers' ability to convert to our RRPs, as well as any significant increase in the cost of complying with new regulatory requirements could have a material adverse effect on our financial results. Changes in the earnings mix and changes in tax laws may result in significant variability in our effective tax rates. Our ability to receive payments from foreign subsidiaries or to repatriate royalties and dividends could be restricted by local country currency exchange controls and other regulations. We are subject to income tax laws in the United States and numerous foreign jurisdictions. The results of the 2020 U.S. presidential and congressional elections could lead to changes in the U.S. tax system, including significant increases in the U.S. corporate income tax rate and the minimum tax rate on certain earnings of foreign subsidiaries. If ultimately enacted into law, such changes could have a material adverse impact on our effective tax rate thereby reducing our net earnings. Further changes in the tax laws of foreign jurisdictions could arise as a result of the base erosion and profit shifting project undertaken by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, which recommended changes to numerous long-standing tax principles. If implemented, such changes, as well as changes in taxing jurisdictions’ administrative interpretations, decisions, policies, or positions, could also have a material adverse impact on our effective tax rate thereby reducing our net earnings. In future periods, our ability to recover deferred tax assets could be subject to additional uncertainty as a result of such developments. Furthermore, changes in the earnings mix or applicable foreign tax laws may result in significant variability in our effective tax rates. Because we are a U.S. holding company, our most significant source of funds is distributions from our non-U.S. subsidiaries. Certain countries in which we operate have adopted or could institute currency exchange controls and other regulations that limit or prohibit our local subsidiaries' ability to convert local currency into U.S. dollars or to make payments outside the country. This could subject us to the risks of local currency devaluation and business disruption. Risks Related to our International Operations Because we have operations in numerous countries, our results may be adversely impacted by economic, regulatory and political developments, natural disasters, pandemics or conflicts. Some of the countries in which we operate face the threat of civil unrest and can be subject to regime changes. In others, nationalization, terrorism, conflict and the threat of war may have a significant impact on the business environment. Natural disasters, pandemics, economic, political, regulatory or other developments could disrupt our supply chain, manufacturing capabilities or distribution capabilities. In addition, such developments could increase costs of our materials and operations and lead to loss of property or equipment that are critical to our business in certain markets and difficulty in staffing and managing our operations, all of which could reduce our volumes, revenues and net earnings. We discuss risks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic below. In certain markets, we are dependent on governmental approvals of various actions such as price changes, and failure to obtain such approvals could impair growth of our profitability. In addition, despite our high ethical standards and rigorous control and compliance procedures aimed at preventing and detecting unlawful conduct, given the breadth and scope of our international operations, we may not be able to detect all potential improper or unlawful conduct by our employees and partners. Our reported results could be adversely affected by unfavorable currency exchange rates, and currency devaluations could impair our competitiveness. We conduct our business primarily in local currency and, for purposes of financial reporting, the local currency results are translated into U.S. dollars based on average exchange rates prevailing during a reporting period. During times of a strengthening U.S. dollar, our reported net revenues, operating income and EPS will be reduced because the local currency translates into fewer U.S. dollars. During periods of economic crises, such as during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, foreign currencies may be devalued significantly against the U.S. dollar, reducing our margins. Actions to recover margins may result in lower volume and a weaker competitive position. Risks Related to Legal Challenges and Investigations Litigation related to tobacco use and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke could substantially reduce our profitability and could severely impair our liquidity. There is litigation related to tobacco products pending in certain jurisdictions in which we operate. Damages claimed in some tobacco-related litigation are significant and, in certain cases in Brazil, Canada, and Nigeria, range into the billions of U.S. dollars. We anticipate that new cases will continue to be filed. The FCTC encourages litigation against tobacco product manufacturers. It is possible that our consolidated results of operations, cash flows or financial position could be materially affected in a particular fiscal quarter or fiscal year by an unfavorable outcome or settlement of certain pending litigation. See Item 8, Note 17. Contingencies to our condensed consolidated financial statements for a discussion of pending litigation and "Business Environment-Reduced-Risk Products (RRPs)-Legal Challenges to RRPs." From time to time, we are subject to governmental investigations on a range of matters. Investigations include allegations of contraband shipments of cigarettes, allegations of unlawful pricing activities within certain markets, allegations of underpayment of income taxes, customs duties and/or excise taxes, allegations of false and misleading usage of descriptors, allegations of unlawful advertising, and allegations of unlawful labor practices. We cannot predict the outcome of those investigations or whether additional investigations may be commenced, and it is possible that our business could be materially affected by an unfavorable outcome of pending or future investigations. See Item 8, Note 17. Contingencies-Other Litigation and “Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-Operating Results by Business Segment-Business Environment-Governmental Investigations” for a description of certain governmental investigations to which we are subject. We may be unable to adequately protect our intellectual property rights, and disputes relating to intellectual property rights could harm our business. Our intellectual property rights are valuable assets, and their protection is important to our business. If the steps we take to protect our intellectual property rights globally, including through a combination of trademark, design, patent and other intellectual property rights, are inadequate, or if others infringe or misappropriate our intellectual property rights, notwithstanding legal protection, our business could be adversely impacted. Intellectual property rights of third parties may limit our ability to commercialize our products or improve product quality in one or more markets. Competitors or other third parties may claim that we infringe their intellectual property rights. Any such claims, regardless of merit, could divert management’s attention, be costly, disruptive, time-consuming and unpredictable and expose us to litigation costs and damages, and impede our ability to manufacture, commercialize and improve our products. If, as a result, we are unable to manufacture or sell our RRPs or improve their quality in one or more markets, our ability to convert adult smokers to our RRPs in such markets would be adversely affected. See Item 8, Note 17. Contingencies-Other Litigation to our condensed consolidated financial statements for a description of certain intellectual property proceedings. Risks Related to our Competitive Environment We face intense competition, and our failure to compete effectively could have a material adverse effect on our profitability and results of operations. We are subject to highly competitive conditions in all aspects of our business. We compete primarily on the basis of product quality, brand recognition, brand loyalty, taste, R&D, innovation, packaging, customer service, marketing, advertising and retail price and, increasingly, adult smoker willingness to convert to our RRPs. The competitive environment and our competitive position can be significantly influenced by weak economic conditions, erosion of consumer confidence, competitors' introduction of lower-price products or innovative products, higher tobacco product taxes, higher absolute prices and larger gaps between retail price categories, and product regulation that diminishes the ability to differentiate tobacco products and restricts adult consumer access to truthful and non-misleading information about our RRPs. Competitors include three large international tobacco companies, new market entrants, particularly with respect to innovative products, several regional and local tobacco companies and, in some instances, state-owned tobacco enterprises, principally in Algeria, Egypt, the PRC, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Industry consolidation and privatizations of state-owned enterprises have led to an overall increase in competitive pressures. Some competitors have different profit and volume objectives, and some international competitors are susceptible to changes in different currency exchange rates. Certain new market entrants may alienate consumers from innovative products through inappropriate marketing campaigns, messaging and inferior product satisfaction, while not relying on scientific substantiation based on appropriate R&D protocols and standards. The growing use of digital media could increase the speed and extent of the dissemination of inaccurate and misleading information about our RRPs. We may be unable to anticipate changes in adult consumer preferences. Our business is subject to changes in adult consumer preferences, which may be influenced by local economic conditions. To be successful, we must: •promote brand equity successfully; •anticipate and respond to new adult consumer trends; •develop new products and markets and broaden brand portfolios; •improve productivity; •convince adult smokers to convert to our RRPs; •ensure effective adult consumer engagement, including communication about product characteristics and usage of RRPs; •provide excellent customer care; •ensure adequate production capacity to meet demand for our products; and •be able to protect or enhance margins through price increases. In periods of economic uncertainty, adult consumers may tend to purchase lower-price brands, and the volume of our premium-price and mid-price brands and our profitability could be materially adversely impacted as a result. Such down-trading trends may be reinforced by regulation that limits branding, communication and product differentiation. Our ability to grow profitability may be limited by our inability to introduce new products, enter new markets or improve our margins through higher pricing and improvements in our brand and geographic mix. Our profit growth may be adversely impacted if we are unable to introduce new products or enter new markets successfully, to raise prices or to improve the proportion of our sales of higher margin products and in higher margin geographies. We may be unable to expand our brand portfolio through successful acquisitions or the development of strategic business relationships. One element of our growth strategy is to strengthen our brand portfolio and market positions through selective acquisitions and the development of strategic business relationships. Acquisition and strategic business development opportunities are limited and present risks of failing to achieve efficient and effective integration, strategic objectives and anticipated revenue improvements and cost savings. There is no assurance that we will be able to acquire attractive businesses on favorable terms, or that future acquisitions or strategic business developments will be accretive to earnings. Our ability to achieve our strategic goals may be impaired if we fail to attract, motivate and retain the best global talent and effectively align our organizational design with the goals of our transformation. To be successful, we must continue transforming our culture and ways of working, align our talent and organizational design with our increasingly complex business needs, and innovate and transform to a consumer-centric business. We compete for talent, including in areas that are new to us, such as digital and technical solutions, with companies in the consumer products, technology and other sectors that enjoy greater societal acceptance. As a result, we may be unable to attract, motivate and retain the best global talent with the right degree of diversity, experience and skills to achieve our strategic goals. Risks Related to the Impact of COVID-19 on our Business Our business, results of operations, cash flows and financial position will be adversely impacted during the continuation of the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has created significant societal and economic disruption, and resulted in closures of stores, factories and offices, and restrictions on manufacturing, distribution and travel, all of which have and will continue to adversely impact our business, results of operations, cash flows and financial position while the pandemic continues. Our business continuity plans and other safeguards may not be effective to mitigate the impact of the pandemic. Currently, significant risks include our diminished ability to convert adult smokers to our RRPs, significant volume declines in our duty-free business and certain other key markets, disruptions or delays in our manufacturing and supply chain, increased currency volatility, and delays in certain cost saving, transformation and restructuring initiatives. Our business could also be adversely impacted if key personnel or a significant number of employees or business partners become unavailable due to the COVID-19 outbreak. The significant adverse impact of COVID-19 on the economic or political conditions in markets in which we operate could result in changes to the preferences of our adult consumers and lower demand for our products, particularly for our mid-price or premium-price brands. Continuation of the pandemic could disrupt our access to the credit markets or increase our borrowing costs. Governments may temporarily be unable to focus on the development of science-based regulatory frameworks for the development and commercialization of RRPs or on the enforcement or implementation of regulations that are significant to our business. In addition, messaging about the potential negative impacts of the use of our products on COVID-19 risks may lead to increasingly restrictive regulatory measures on the sale and use of our products, negatively impact demand for our products and the willingness of adult consumers to switch to our RRPs, and adversely impact our efforts to advocate for the development of science-based regulatory frameworks for the development and commercialization of RRPs. The impact of these risks also depends on factors beyond our knowledge or control, including the duration and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic in general and specifically in the jurisdictions in which we operate, its recurrence in our key markets, actions taken to contain its spread and to mitigate its public health effects, and the ultimate economic consequences thereof. Risks Related to Sourcing of Materials, Products and Services Use of third-party resources may negatively impact quality of our products and services, and we may be required to replace third-party contract manufacturers or service providers with our own resources. We increasingly rely on third-party resources to manufacture some of our products and product parts (particularly, the electronic devices and accessories) and to provide services, including to support our finance and information technology processes. While many of these arrangements improve efficiencies and decrease our operating costs, they also diminish our direct control. Such diminished control may have an adverse effect on the quality of products or services, our supply chain, and the speed and flexibility in our response to changing market conditions and adult consumer preferences, all of which may place us at a competitive disadvantage. In addition, we may be unable to renew these agreements on satisfactory terms for numerous reasons, including government regulations, and our costs may increase significantly if we must replace such third parties with our own resources. Government mandated prices, production control programs, shifts in crops driven by economic conditions and the impact of climate change may increase the cost or reduce the quality of the tobacco and other agricultural products used to manufacture our products. As with other agricultural commodities, the price of tobacco leaf and cloves can be influenced by imbalances in supply and demand and the impacts of natural disasters and pandemics such as COVID-19. Furthermore, crop quality may be influenced by variations in weather patterns, including those caused by climate change. Tobacco production in certain countries is subject to a variety of controls, including government mandated prices and production control programs. Changes in the patterns of demand for agricultural products could cause farmers to produce less tobacco or cloves. Any significant change in tobacco leaf and clove prices, quality and quantity could affect our profitability and our business. Risks Related to the Success of our Reduced-Risk Products The financial and business performance of our reduced-risk products is less predictable than our cigarette business. Our RRPs are novel products in a new category, and the pace at which adult smokers adopt them may vary, depending on the competitive, regulatory, fiscal and cultural environment, and other factors in a specific market. There may be periods of accelerated growth and periods of slower growth for these products, the timing and drivers of which may be more difficult for us to predict versus our mature cigarette business. The impact of this lower predictability on our projected results for a specific period may be significant, particularly during the early stages of this new product category and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We may be unsuccessful in our attempts to introduce reduced-risk products, and regulators may not permit the commercialization of these products or the communication of scientifically substantiated information and claims. Our key strategic priorities are: to develop and commercialize products that present less risk of harm to adult smokers who switch to those products versus continued smoking; and to convince current adult smokers who would otherwise continue to smoke to switch to those RRPs. For our efforts to be successful, we must: •develop RRPs that such adult smokers find acceptable alternatives to smoking; •conduct rigorous scientific studies to substantiate that they reduce exposure to harmful and potentially harmful constituents in smoke and, ultimately, that these products present, are likely to present, or have the potential to present less risk of harm to adult smokers who switch to them versus continued smoking; and •effectively advocate for the development of science-based regulatory frameworks for the development and commercialization of RRPs, including communication of scientifically substantiated information to enable adult smokers to make better consumer choices. We might not succeed in our efforts. If we do not succeed, but others do, or if heat-not-burn products are inequitably regulated compared to other RRP categories without regard to the totality of the scientific evidence available for such products, we may be at a competitive disadvantage. In addition, actions of some market entrants, such as the inappropriate marketing of e-vapor products to youth, as well as alleged health consequences associated with the use of certain e-vapor products, may unfavorably impact public opinion and/or mischaracterize all e-vapor products or other RRPs to consumers, regulators and policy makers without regard to the totality of scientific evidence for specific products. This may impede our efforts to advocate for the development of science-based regulatory frameworks for the development and commercialization of RRPs. We cannot predict whether regulators will permit the sale and/or marketing of RRPs with scientifically substantiated information and claims. Such restrictions could limit the success of our RRPs. Our RRPs and commercial activities for these products are designed for, and directed toward, current adult smokers and users of nicotine-containing products, and not for non-smokers or youth. If nonetheless there is a significant usage of our products or competitive products among youth or non-smokers, even in situations over which we have no control, our credibility may suffer, and our efforts to advocate for the development of science-based regulatory frameworks for the commercialization of RRPs may be significantly impacted. Moreover, the FDA’s premarket tobacco product and modified risk tobacco product authorizations of a version of our Platform 1 product are subject to strict marketing, reporting and other requirements. Although we have received these product authorizations from the FDA, there is no guarantee that the product will remain authorized, particularly if there is a significant uptake in youth or non-smoker initiation. We may be unsuccessful in our efforts to differentiate reduced-risk products and cigarettes with respect to taxation. To date, we have been largely successful in demonstrating to regulators that our RRPs are not cigarettes due to the absence of combustion, and as such they are generally taxed either as a separate category or as other tobacco products, which typically yields more favorable tax rates than cigarettes. If we cease to be successful in these efforts, RRP unit margins may be adversely affected. Risks Related to Illicit Trade We lose revenues as a result of counterfeiting, contraband, cross-border purchases, "illicit whites," non-tax-paid volume produced by local manufacturers, and counterfeiting of our Platform 1 device and heated tobacco units. Large quantities of counterfeit cigarettes are sold in the international market. We believe that Marlboro is the most heavily counterfeited international cigarette brand, although we cannot quantify the revenues we lose as a result of this activity. In addition, our revenues are reduced by contraband, legal cross-border purchases, "illicit whites" and non-tax-paid volume produced by local manufacturers. Our revenues and consumer satisfaction with our Platform 1 device and heated tobacco units may be adversely affected by counterfeit products that do not meet our product quality standards and scientific validation procedures. Risks Related to Cybersecurity and Data Governance The failure of our information systems to function as intended or their penetration with the intent to corrupt them or our failure to adhere to strict data governance and cybersecurity protocols and to comply with privacy laws and regulations could result in business disruption, loss of reputation, litigation and regulatory action, and loss of revenue, assets or personal or other confidential data. We use information systems to help manage business processes, collect and interpret data and communicate internally and externally with employees, suppliers, consumers, customers and others. Some of these information systems are managed by third-party service providers. We have backup systems and business continuity plans in place, and we work with our internal specialists and these third-party service providers to protect these systems and data from unauthorized access. Nevertheless, failure of these systems to function as intended, or penetration of these systems by parties intent on extracting or corrupting information or otherwise disrupting business processes, could place us at a competitive disadvantage, result in a loss of revenue, assets or personal or other sensitive data, litigation and regulatory action, cause damage to our reputation and that of our brands and result in significant remediation and other costs. Failure to protect personal data, respect the rights of data subjects, and adhere to strict data governance and cybersecurity protocols could subject us to substantial fines and other legal challenges under regulations such as the EU General Data Protection Regulation. As we are increasingly relying on digital platforms in our business, and as privacy laws in the jurisdictions in which we do business become more stringent, the magnitude of these risks is likely to increase. Item 1B.