PHM, §1A diff (2015 → 2016)

ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS Discussion of our business and operations included in this annual report on Form 10-K should be read together with the risk factors set forth below. They describe various risks and uncertainties to which we are, or may become, subject. These risks and uncertainties, together with other factors described elsewhere in this report, have the potential to affect our business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, strategies, or prospects in a material and adverse manner. Downward changes in general economic, real estate construction, or other business conditions could adversely affect our business or our financial results. The residential homebuilding industry is sensitive to changes in economic conditions and other factors, such as the level of employment, consumer confidence, consumer income, availability of financing, and interest rate levels. Adverse changes in any of these conditions generally, or in the markets where we operate, could decrease demand and pricing for new homes in these areas or result in customer cancellations of pending contracts, which could adversely affect the number of home deliveries we make or reduce the prices we can charge for homes, either of which could result in a decrease in our revenues and earnings and would adversely affect our financial condition. The homebuilding industry experienced a significant downturn from 2006 through 2011. Although industry conditions improved beginning in 2012, the overall U.S. economy, while improving, remains challenged and consumer demand in the industry remains volatile. A deterioration in industry conditions could adversely affect our business and results of operations. Beginning in 2006 and continuing through 2011, the U.S. housing market was unfavorably impacted by severe weakness in new home sales attributable to, among other factors, weak consumer confidence, tightened mortgage standards, significant foreclosure activity, a more challenging appraisal environment, higher than normal unemployment levels, and significant uncertainty in the global economy. These conditions contributed to sharply weakened demand for new homes and heightened pricing pressures on new and existing home sales. As a result of these factors, we experienced significant decreases in our revenues and profitability during the period 2007 - 2011. We also incurred substantial impairments of our land inventory and certain other assets during this period. Since 2011, overall industry new home sales have increased, and we returned to profitability. However, the overall demand for new homes remains below historical levels. Accordingly, we can provide no assurances that the adjustments we have made in our operating strategy will be successful. If the market value of our land and homes drops significantly, our profits could decrease. The market value of land, building lots, and housing inventories can fluctuate significantly as a result of changing market conditions, and the measures we employ to manage inventory risk may not be adequate to insulate our operations from a severe drop in inventory values. We acquire land for expansion into new markets and for replacement of land inventory and expansion within our current markets. If housing demand decreases below what we anticipated when we acquired our inventory, we may not be able to make profits similar to what we have made in the past, we may experience less than anticipated profits, and/or we may not be able to recover our costs when we sell and build homes. When market conditions are such that land values are not appreciating, option arrangements previously entered into may become less desirable, at which time we may elect to forego deposits and pre-acquisition costs and terminate the agreement. In the face of adverse market conditions, we may have substantial inventory carrying costs, we may have to write down our inventory to its fair value, and/or we may have to sell land or homes at a loss. Supply shortages and other risks related to the demand for skilled labor and building materials could increase costs and delay deliveries. The homebuilding industry is highly competitive for skilled labor and materials. Labor shortages in certain of our markets have become more acute in recent quarters as the supply chain adjusts to uneven industry growth. Additionally, the cost of certain building materials, especially lumber, steel, concrete, copper, and petroleum-based materials, is influenced by changes in local and global commodity prices. Increased costs or shortages of skilled labor and/or materials could cause increases in construction costs and / or construction delays. We may not be able to pass on increases in construction costs to customers and generally are unable to pass on any such increases to customers who have already entered into sales contracts as those sales contracts generally fix the price of the home at the time the contract is signed, which may be well in advance of the construction of the home. Sustained increases in construction costs may, over time, erode our margins, and pricing competition may restrict our ability to pass on any such additional costs, thereby decreasing our margins. Our success depends on our ability to acquire land suitable for residential homebuilding at reasonable prices, in accordance with our land investment criteria. The homebuilding industry is highly competitive for suitable land. The availability of finished and partially finished developed lots and undeveloped land for purchase that meet our internal criteria depends on a number of factors outside our control, including land availability in general, competition with other homebuilders and land buyers for desirable property, inflation in land prices, zoning, allowable housing density, and other regulatory requirements. Should suitable lots or land become less available, the number of homes we may be able to build and sell could be reduced, and the cost of land could be increased, perhaps substantially, which could adversely impact our results of operations. Our long-term ability to build homes depends on our acquiring land suitable for residential building at reasonable prices in locations where we want to build. In the past, we experienced significant competition for suitable land as a result of land constraints in many of our markets. As competition for suitable land increases, and as available land is developed, the cost of acquiring suitable remaining land could rise, and the availability of suitable land at acceptable prices may decline. Any land shortages or any decrease in the supply of suitable land at reasonable prices could limit our ability to develop new communities or result in increased land costs. We may not be able to pass through to our customers any increased land costs, which could adversely impact our revenues, earnings, and margins. We are subject to claims related to mortgage loans we sold in the secondary mortgage market that may be significant. Our mortgage operations may be responsible for losses associated with mortgage loans originated and sold to investors in the event of errors or omissions relating to certain representations and warranties made by us that the loans met certain requirements, including representations as to underwriting standards, the type of collateral, the existence of primary mortgage insurance, and the validity of certain borrower representations in connection with the loan. To date, the significant majority of these losses relate to loans originated in 2006 and 2007, during which period inherently riskier loan products became more common in the origination market. We may also be required to indemnify underwriters that purchased and securitized loans originated by a former subsidiary of Centex for losses incurred by investors in those securitized loans based on similar breaches of representations and warranties. The resolution of claims related to alleged breaches of these representations and warranties and repurchase claims could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, cash flows and results of operations. Given the ongoing volatility in the mortgage industry, changes in values of underlying collateral over time, and other uncertainties regarding the ultimate resolution of these claims, actual costs could differ from our current estimates. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such reserves will not need to be increased in the future. Future increases in interest rates, reductions in mortgage availability, or other increases in the effective costs of owning a home could prevent potential customers from buying our homes and adversely affect our business and financial results. A large majority of our customers finance their home purchases through mortgage loans, many through our mortgage bank. Interest rates have been near historical lows for several years, which has made new homes more affordable. Increases in interest rates or decreases in the availability of mortgage financing could adversely affect the market for new homes. Potential homebuyers may be less willing or able to pay the increased monthly costs or to obtain mortgage financing. Lenders may increase the qualifications needed for mortgages or adjust their terms to address any increased credit risk. Even if potential customers do not need financing, changes in interest rates and mortgage availability could make it harder for them to sell their current homes to potential buyers who need financing. These factors could adversely affect the sales or pricing of our homes and could also reduce the volume or margins in our financial services business. Our financial services business could also be impacted to the extent we are unable to match interest rates and amounts on loans we have committed to originate through the various hedging strategies we employ. These developments have had, and may continue to have, a material adverse effect on the overall demand for new housing and thereby on the results of operations for our homebuilding business. We also believe that the availability of FHA and VA mortgage financing is an important factor in marketing some of our homes. The liquidity provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the mortgage industry is also critical to the housing market. The impact of the federal government’s conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on the short-term and long-term demand for new housing remains unclear. Any limitations or restrictions on the availability of financing by these agencies could adversely affect interest rates, mortgage financing, and our sales of new homes and mortgage loans. Mortgage interest expense and real estate taxes represent significant costs of homeownership, both of which are generally deductible for an individual’s federal and, in some cases, state income taxes. Any changes to income tax laws by the federal government or a state government to eliminate or substantially reduce these income tax deductions, as has been considered from time to time, would increase the after-tax cost of owning a home. Increases in real estate taxes by local governmental authorities also increase the cost of homeownership. Any such increases to the cost of homeownership could adversely impact the demand for and sales prices of new homes. Adverse capital and credit market conditions may significantly affect our access to capital and cost of capital. The capital and credit markets can experience significant volatility. We may need credit-related liquidity for the future development of our business. Without sufficient liquidity, we may not be able to purchase additional land or develop land, which could adversely affect our financial results. At December 31, 2015, we had cash and equivalents of $754.2 million, restricted cash totaling $21.3 million, and $308.7 million available under our revolving credit facility, net of outstanding letters of credit. However, our internal sources of liquidity may prove to be insufficient, and in such case, we may not be able to successfully obtain additional financing on terms acceptable to us, or at all. Another source of liquidity includes our ability to use letters of credit and surety bonds pursuant to certain performance-related obligations and as security for certain land option agreements and under various insurance programs. The majority of these letters of credit and surety bonds are in support of our land development and construction obligations to various municipalities, other government agencies, and utility companies related to the construction of roads, sewers, and other infrastructure. At December 31, 2015, we had outstanding letters of credit and surety bonds totaling $191.3 million and $1.0 billion, respectively. These letters of credit are issued via our unsecured revolving credit facility, which contains certain financial covenants and other limitations. If we are unable to obtain letters of credit or surety bonds when required, or the conditions imposed by issuers increase significantly, our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected. Competition for homebuyers could reduce our deliveries or decrease our profitability. The U.S. housing industry is highly competitive. We compete primarily on the basis of location, price, quality, reputation, design, community amenities, and our customers' overall sales and homeownership experiences. We compete in each of our markets with numerous national, regional, and local homebuilders. This competition with other homebuilders could reduce the number of homes we deliver or cause us to accept reduced margins in order to maintain sales volume. We also compete with resales of existing or foreclosed homes, housing speculators, and available rental housing. Increased competitive conditions in the residential resale or rental market in the regions where we operate could decrease demand for new homes or unfavorably impact pricing for new homes. Our income tax provision and tax reserves may be insufficient if a taxing authority is successful in asserting positions that are contrary to our interpretations and related reserves, if any. Significant judgment is required in determining our provision for income taxes and our reserves for federal, state, and local taxes. In the ordinary course of business, there may be matters for which the ultimate outcome is uncertain. Our evaluation of our tax matters is based on a number of factors, including changes in facts or circumstances, changes in tax law, correspondence with tax authorities during the course of audits, and effective settlement of audit issues. Although we believe our approach to determining the tax treatment for such items is appropriate, no assurance can be given that the final tax authority review will not be materially different than that which is reflected in our income tax provision and related tax reserves. Such differences could have a material adverse effect on our income tax provision in the period in which such determination is made and, consequently, on our financial position, cash flows, or net income for such period. We are periodically audited by various federal, state, and local authorities regarding tax matters. Our current audits are in various stages of completion; however, no outcome for a particular audit can be determined with certainty prior to the conclusion of the audit, appeal, and, in some cases, litigation process. As each audit is concluded, adjustments, if any, are recorded in our financial statements in the period determined. To provide for potential tax exposures, we consider a variety of factors, including changes in facts or circumstances, changes in law, correspondence with taxing authorities, and effective settlement of audit issues. If these reserves are insufficient upon completion of an audit, there could be an adverse impact on our financial position, cash flows, and results of operations. We may not realize our deferred income tax assets. As of December 31, 2015, we had deferred income tax assets, net of deferred tax liabilities, of $1.5 billion, against which we provided a valuation allowance of $109.1 million. The ultimate realization of our deferred income tax assets is dependent upon generating future taxable income and executing tax planning strategies. While we have recorded valuation allowances against certain of our deferred income tax assets, the valuation allowances are subject to change as facts and circumstances change. Our ability to utilize net operating losses (“NOLs”), built-in losses (“BILs”), and tax credit carryforwards to offset our future taxable income would be limited if we were to undergo an “ownership change” within the meaning of Section 382 of the Internal Revenue Code (the “IRC”). In general, an “ownership change” occurs whenever the percentage of the stock of a corporation owned by “5-percent shareholders” (within the meaning of Section 382 of the IRC) increases by more than 50 percentage points over the lowest percentage of the stock of such corporation owned by such “5-percent shareholders” at any time over the testing period. An ownership change under Section 382 of the IRC would establish an annual limitation to the amount of NOLs, BILs, and tax credit carryforwards we could utilize to offset our taxable income in any single year. The application of these limitations might prevent full utilization of the deferred tax assets attributable to our NOLs, BILs, and tax credit carryforwards. To preserve our ability to utilize NOLs, BILs, and other tax benefits in the future without a Section 382 limitation, we adopted a shareholder rights plan, which is triggered upon certain transfers of our securities, and amended our by-laws to prohibit certain transfers of our securities. Our shareholder rights plan expires June 1, 2016, unless our board of directors and shareholders approve an amendment to extend the term prior thereto. Notwithstanding the foregoing measures, there can be no assurance that we will not undergo an ownership change within the meaning of Section 382. As a result of our merger with Centex in 2009, our ability to use certain of Centex’s pre-ownership change NOLs, BILs, and deductions is limited under Section 382 of the IRC. We do not believe that the Section 382 limitation will prevent us from using Centex's pre-ownership change federal NOLs, BILs, or deductions, however, no assurance can be given that any such limitation will not occur, which could be material. The value of our deferred tax assets is also dependent upon the tax rates expected to be in effect at the time taxable income is expected to be generated. A decrease in enacted corporate tax rates in our major jurisdictions, especially the U.S. federal corporate tax rate, would decrease the value of our deferred tax assets, which could be material. We have significant intangible assets. If these assets become impaired, then our profits and shareholders’ equity may be reduced. We have significant intangible assets related to business combinations. We evaluate the recoverability of intangible assets whenever facts and circumstances indicate the carrying amount may not be recoverable. If the carrying value of intangible assets is deemed impaired, the carrying value is written down to fair value. This would result in a charge to our earnings. If management’s expectations of future results and cash flows decrease significantly, impairments of the remaining intangible assets may occur. Government regulations could increase the cost and limit the availability of our development and homebuilding projects or affect our related financial services operations and adversely affect our business or financial results. Our operations are subject to building, environmental, and other regulations imposed and enforced by various federal, state, and local governing authorities. New housing developments may also be subject to various assessments for schools, parks, streets, and other public improvements. These can cause an increase in the effective cost of our homes. We also are subject to a variety of local, state, and federal laws and regulations concerning protection of health, safety, and the environment. The impact of environmental laws varies depending upon the prior uses of the building site or adjoining properties and may be greater in areas with less supply where undeveloped land or desirable alternatives are less available. These matters may result in delays, may cause us to incur substantial compliance, remediation and other costs, and can prohibit or severely restrict development and homebuilding activity in environmentally sensitive regions or areas. More stringent requirements could be imposed in the future on homebuilders and developers, thereby increasing the cost of compliance. Our financial services operations are also subject to numerous federal, state, and local laws and regulations. These include eligibility requirements for participation in federal loan programs and compliance with consumer lending and similar requirements such as disclosure requirements, prohibitions against discrimination, and real estate settlement procedures. They also subject our operations to examination by applicable agencies, pursuant to which those agencies may limit our ability to provide mortgage financing or title services to potential purchasers of our homes. For our homes to qualify for FHA or VA mortgages, we must satisfy valuation standards and site, material, and construction requirements of those agencies. In January 2013, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau ("CFPB") adopted new rules regarding the origination of mortgages, including the criteria for “qualified mortgages”, rules for lender practices regarding assessing borrowers’ ability to repay, and limitations on certain fees and incentive arrangements. Such rules went into effect in January 2014. The CFPB also issued the TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure ("TRID") rules, which combined the mortgage disclosures consumers receive under the Truth in Lending Act ("TILA") and the Real Estate Settlement and Procedures Act ("RESPA"). Such rules went into effect in October 2015. While we have adjusted our operations to comply with the new rules, the impact such rules will have on our business remains unclear. Additionally, certain other rules required by the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 have not yet been completed or implemented, which has created uncertainty in the overall U.S. financial services and mortgage industries as to their long-term impact. Homebuilding is subject to warranty and other claims in the ordinary course of business that can be significant. As a homebuilder, we are subject to home warranty, construction defect, and other claims arising in the ordinary course of business. We record warranty and other reserves for the homes we sell based on historical experience in our markets and our judgment of the qualitative risks associated with the types of homes built. We have, and require our subcontractors to have, general liability, property, errors and omissions, workers compensation, and other business insurance. These insurance policies protect us against a portion of our risk of loss from claims, subject to certain self-insured per occurrence and aggregate retentions, deductibles, and available policy limits. In certain instances, we may offer our subcontractors the opportunity to purchase insurance through one of our captive insurance subsidiaries or participate in a project-specific insurance program provided by us. Policies issued by our captive insurance subsidiaries represent self-insurance of these risks by us. We reserve for costs to cover our self-insured and deductible amounts under these policies and for any costs of claims and lawsuits based on an analysis of our historical claims, which includes an estimate of claims incurred but not yet reported. Because of the uncertainties inherent in these matters, we cannot provide assurance that our insurance coverage, our subcontractor arrangements, and our reserves will be adequate to address all our warranty and construction defect claims in the future. Contractual indemnities can be difficult to enforce, we may be responsible for applicable self-insured retentions, and some types of claims may not be covered by insurance or may exceed applicable coverage limits. Additionally, the coverage offered by and the availability of general liability insurance for construction defects are currently costly and limited. We have responded to increases in insurance costs and coverage limitations by increasing our self-insured retentions and claim reserves. There can be no assurance that coverage will not be further restricted or become more costly. Additionally, we are exposed to counterparty default risk related to our subcontractors, our insurance carriers, and our subcontractors’ insurance carriers. Natural disasters and severe weather conditions could delay deliveries, increase costs, and decrease demand for new homes in affected areas. Our homebuilding operations are located in many areas that are subject to natural disasters and severe weather. The occurrence of natural disasters or severe weather conditions can delay new home deliveries, increase costs by damaging inventories, reduce the availability of materials, and negatively impact the demand for new homes in affected areas. Furthermore, if our insurance does not fully cover business interruptions or losses resulting from these events, our earnings, liquidity, or capital resources could be adversely affected. Inflation may result in increased costs that we may not be able to recoup. Inflation can have a long-term impact on us because increasing costs of land, materials, and labor may require us to increase the sales prices of homes in order to maintain satisfactory margins. However, we may not be able to raise home prices sufficiently to keep up with the rate of inflation and our margins could decrease. In addition, inflation is often accompanied by higher interest rates, which could have a negative impact on housing demand. Information technology failures or data security breaches could harm our business. We use information technology and other computer resources to carry out important operational activities and to maintain our business records. Our computer systems, including our back-up systems, are subject to damage or interruption from power outages, computer and telecommunications failures, computer viruses, security breaches (through cyberattacks from computer hackers and sophisticated organizations), catastrophic events such as fires, tornadoes and hurricanes, and usage errors by our associates. If our computer systems and our back-up systems are damaged, breached, or cease to function properly, we could suffer interruptions in our operations or unintentionally allow misappropriation of proprietary or confidential information (including information about our homebuyers and business partners), which could require us to incur significant costs to remediate or otherwise resolve these issues. ITEM 1B.