PCAR, §1A diff (2018 → 2019)

ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS. The following are significant risks which could have a material negative impact on the Company’s financial condition or results of operations. Business and Industry Risks Commercial Truck Market Demand is Variable. The Company’s business is highly sensitive to global and national economic conditions as well as economic conditions in the industries and markets it serves. Negative economic conditions and outlook can materially weaken demand for the Company’s equipment and services. The yearly demand for commercial vehicles may increase or decrease more than overall gross domestic product in markets the Company serves, which are principally North America and Europe. Demand for commercial vehicles may also be affected by the introduction of new vehicles and technologies by the Company or its competitors. Competition and Prices. The Company operates in a highly competitive environment, which could adversely affect the Company’s sales and pricing. Financial results depend largely on the ability to develop, manufacture and market competitive products that profitably meet customer demand. Production Costs and Supplier Capacity. The Company’s products are exposed to variability in material and commodity costs. Commodity or component price increases and significant shortages of component products may adversely impact the Company’s financial results or use of its production capacity. Many of the Company’s suppliers also supply automotive manufacturers, and factors that adversely affect the automotive industry can also have adverse effects on these suppliers and the Company. Supplier delivery performance can be adversely affected if increased demand for these suppliers’ products exceeds their production capacity. Unexpected events, including natural disasters, may increase the Company’s cost of doing business or disrupt the Company’s or its suppliers’ operations. The recent outbreak of the Coronavirus “COVID-19” in China has resulted in work stoppages at certain suppliers in China that are part of the Company’s supply chain. As of February 19, 2020, the Company has not experienced shortages in supply as a result of the interruptions, but if the work stoppages were to be prolonged or expanded in scope, there could be resulting supply shortages which could impact the Company’s ability to deliver trucks and parts to customers on schedule and have an adverse effect on the Company’s revenues and profits. Liquidity Risks, Credit Ratings and Costs of Funds. Disruptions or volatility in global financial markets could limit the Company’s sources of liquidity, or the liquidity of customers, dealers and suppliers. A lowering of the Company’s credit ratings could increase the cost of borrowing and adversely affect access to capital markets. The Company’s Financial Services segment obtains funds for its operations from commercial paper, medium-term notes and bank debt. If the markets for commercial paper, medium-term notes and bank debt do not provide the necessary liquidity in the future, the Financial Services segment may experience increased costs or may have to limit its financing of retail and wholesale assets. This could result in a reduction of the number of vehicles the Company is able to produce and sell to customers. The Financial Services Industry is Highly Competitive. The Company’s Financial Services segment competes with banks, other commercial finance companies and financial services firms which may have lower costs of borrowing, higher leverage or market share goals that result in a willingness to offer lower interest rates, which may lead to decreased margins, lower market share or both. A decline in the Company’s truck unit sales and a decrease in truck residual values and used truck inventory values due to lower used truck pricing are also factors which may affect the Company’s Financial Services segment. The Financial Services Segment is Subject to Credit Risk. The Financial Services segment is exposed to the risk of loss arising from the failure of a customer, dealer or counterparty to meet the terms of the loans, leases and derivative contracts with the Company. Although the financial assets of the Financial Services segment are secured by underlying equipment collateral, in the event a customer cannot meet its obligations to the Company, there is a risk that the value of the underlying collateral will not be sufficient to recover the amounts owed to the Company, resulting in credit losses. Interest-Rate Risks. The Financial Services segment is subject to interest-rate risks, because increases in interest rates can reduce demand for its products, increase borrowing costs and potentially reduce interest margins. PFS uses derivative contracts to match the interest rate characteristics of its debt to the interest rate characteristics of its finance receivables in order to mitigate the risk of changing interest rates. Information Technology. The Company relies on information technology systems and networks to process, transmit and store electronic information, and to manage or support a variety of its business processes and activities. These computer systems and networks may be subject to disruptions during the process of upgrading or replacing software, databases or components; power outages; hardware failures; computer viruses; or outside parties attempting to disrupt the Company’s business or gain unauthorized access to the Company’s electronic data. The Company maintains and continues to invest in protections to guard against such events. Examples of these protections include conducting third-party penetration tests, implementing software detection and prevention tools, event monitoring, and disaster recoverability. Additionally the Company maintains a cybersecurity insurance policy. Despite these safeguards, there remains a risk of system disruptions, unauthorized access and data loss. If the Company’s computer systems were to be damaged, disrupted or breached, it could impact data availability and integrity, result in a theft of the Company’s intellectual property or lead to unauthorized disclosure of confidential information of the Company’s customers, suppliers and employees. Security breaches could also result in a violation of U.S. and international privacy and other laws and subject the Company to various litigations and governmental proceedings. These events could have an adverse impact on the Company’s results of operations and financial condition, damage its reputation, disrupt operations and negatively impact competitiveness in the marketplace. Political, Regulatory and Economic Risks Multinational Operations. The Company’s global operations are exposed to political, economic and other risks and events beyond its control in the countries in which the Company operates. The Company may be adversely affected by political instabilities, fuel shortages or interruptions in utility or transportation systems, natural calamities, wars, terrorism and labor strikes. Changes in government monetary or fiscal policies and international trade policies may impact demand for the Company’s products, financial results and competitive position. PACCAR’s global operations are subject to extensive trade, competition and anti-corruption laws and regulations that could impose significant compliance costs. U.K. Exit from the European Union (EU). The U.K. formally exited the EU on January 31, 2020. Under the withdrawal agreement between the U.K. and the EU, there is a transition period that will last until December 31, 2020. During the transition period, all EU rules and regulations will continue to apply to the U.K. During 2020, the U.K. and the EU intend to conclude new agreements concerning their future relationship. If no agreement is reached during the transition period, and there is no mutually agreed extension of the transition period, the standard trade protocols of the World Trade Organization (WTO) would become effective. The Company manufactures medium- and heavy-duty DAF trucks in the U.K. which are sold primarily in the U.K. and to a lesser extent in Europe and other world markets. In 2019, approximately 10% of the Company’s worldwide truck production was manufactured in the U.K. In the event standard trade protocols of the WTO become effective, it is anticipated there would be an increase in tariffs on truck components and parts from the EU which would increase the cost of all trucks and parts in the U.K. The higher cost of trucks and parts may impact truck and parts sales and margins which could have an adverse impact on the Company’s results of operations. The Company’s results could also be impacted by the uncertainty regarding timing and terms of the final agreement, which could cause delays in capital investment decisions. LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) Transition. Certain financing provided by PFS to dealers and retail customers, as well as financing extended to PFS are based on variable interest rate contracts. These contracts utilize various benchmark rates, including LIBOR, to establish applicable contract interest rates. PACCAR also utilizes hedging instruments and has line of credit arrangements which reference LIBOR (including other similar benchmark rates). In July 2017, the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority, which regulates LIBOR, announced it intends to stop compelling banks to submit rates for calculation of LIBOR after 2021. At this time it is not clear if LIBOR will continue to exist, and if not, what alternative benchmark rate will replace LIBOR. Any new benchmark rate will likely not replicate LIBOR exactly, which could impact currently active contracts which terminate after 2021. Substantially all of the Company’s contracts which reference LIBOR, including dealer wholesale financing contracts, medium-term notes, hedging instruments and line of credit arrangements, include fall-back language that specifies the methods to establish contract interest rates in the absence of LIBOR, or provide for the use of an alternative benchmark rate should LIBOR be discontinued. The Company has retail loan and lease contracts with a current balance of approximately $220 million, or less than 1.4% of PFS assets, that extend beyond 2021 and do not contain fall-back language or provide for the use of an alternative benchmark rate. The Company will seek to amend these contracts to allow for the use of an alternative benchmark rate. Changes to benchmark rates will have an uncertain impact on finance receivables and other financial obligations, our current or future cost of funds and/or access to capital markets. The Company will attempt to minimize the impact of differences between the current and replacement benchmark rates through pricing adjustments on the financing provided by PFS, but it is not certain the Company will be able to do so. Based on the current balance of contracts referencing LIBOR (including other similar benchmark rates), it is estimated that for a 10 basis point difference between the current and replacement benchmark rates that the Company is unable to recover through pricing adjustments, income before income taxes would decrease by approximately $2 million. Accordingly, the Company does not expect the anticipated changes to the use of LIBOR as a benchmark rate will have a material impact on the results of operations. Environmental Regulations. The Company’s operations are subject to environmental laws and regulations that impose significant compliance costs. The Company could experience higher research and development and manufacturing costs due to changes in government requirements for its products, including changes in emissions, fuel, greenhouse gas or other regulations. Litigation, Product Liability and Regulatory. The Company’s products are subject to recall for environmental, performance and safety-related issues. Product recalls, lawsuits, regulatory actions or increases in the reserves the Company establishes for contingencies may increase the Company’s costs and lower profits. Due to the international nature of the Company’s business, some products are also subject to international trade regulations, including customs and import / export related laws and regulations, government embargoes and sanctions prohibiting sales to specific persons or countries, as well as anti-corruption laws. The Company’s reputation and its brand names are valuable assets, and claims or regulatory actions, even if unsuccessful or without merit, could adversely affect the Company’s reputation and brand images because of adverse publicity. Currency Exchange and Translation. The Company’s consolidated financial results are reported in U.S. dollars, while significant operations are denominated in the currencies of other countries. Currency exchange rate fluctuations can affect the Company’s assets, liabilities and results of operations through both translation and transaction risk, as reported in the Company’s financial statements. The Company uses certain derivative financial instruments and localized production of its products to reduce, but not eliminate, the effects of foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations. Accounting Estimates. In the preparation of the Company’s financial statements in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, management uses estimates and makes judgments and assumptions that affect asset and liability values and the amounts reported as income and expense during the periods presented. Certain of these estimates, judgments and assumptions, such as residual values on operating leases, the allowance for credit losses and product warranty are particularly sensitive. If actual results are different from estimates used by management, they may have a material impact on the financial statements. For additional disclosures regarding accounting estimates, see “Critical Accounting Policies” under Item 7 of this Form 10-K. Taxes. Changes in statutory income tax rates in the countries in which the Company operates impact the Company’s effective tax rate. Changes to other taxes or the adoption of other new tax legislation could affect the Company’s provision for income taxes and related tax assets and liabilities. ITEM 1B.