KEY, §1A diff (2020 → 2021)
Added paragraphs (9464 words)
ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS
As a financial services organization, we are subject to a number of risks inherent in our transactions and present in the business decisions we make. Described below are the material risks and uncertainties that if realized could have a material and adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations or cash flows, and our access to liquidity. The risks and uncertainties described below are not the only risks we face. Disclosures of risks should not be interpreted to imply that the risks have not already materialized.
Our ERM program incorporates risk management throughout our organization to identify, understand, and manage the risks presented by our business activities. Our ERM program identifies Key’s major risk categories as: credit risk, compliance risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, market risk, reputation risk, strategic risk, and model risk. These risk factors, and other risks we may face, are discussed in more detail in other sections of this report.
I. Credit Risk
We have concentrated credit exposure in commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, and commercial leases.
As of December 31, 2021, approximately 70% of our loan portfolio consisted of commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, including commercial mortgage and construction loans, and commercial leases. These types of loans are typically larger than single family residential real estate loans and other types of consumer loans and have a different risk profile. The deterioration of a larger loan or a group of loans in this category could cause an increase in nonperforming loans, which could result in lower earnings from these loans, additional provision for loan and lease losses, and ultimately an increase in loan losses.
Should the fundamentals of the commercial real estate market deteriorate, our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected.
While the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the commercial real estate market, property values have largely resumed slow appreciation, and in the case of multifamily and industrial now exceed pre-pandemic levels. Development and construction continue, but at muted levels, and deliveries of additional units into the market have been supported. Oversupply of multifamily housing is a concern in certain urban and gateway markets. However, our exposures in those markets are limited. The most severely impacted commercial real estate segments have been in hospitality, office, and retail. However, monthly collections have improved. Key’s non-owner occupied office and retail exposures are 14% of our total commercial real estate exposure. Substantial deterioration in property market fundamentals could negatively impact our portfolio, with a large portion of our clients active in real estate but in the higher performing multifamily space. A correction in the real estate markets could impact the ability of borrowers to make debt service payments on loans or to refinance the loans at maturity. A relatively small portion of our commercial real estate loans are construction loans. New construction and value-add or rehabilitation construction projects are not fully leased at loan origination. These properties typically require additional leasing through the life of the loan to provide cash flow to support debt service payments. If property market fundamentals deteriorate sharply, performance under existing leases could deteriorate and the execution of new leases could slow, compromising the borrower’s ability to cover debt service payments.
We are subject to the risk of defaults by our loan clients and counterparties.
Many of our routine transactions expose us to credit risk in the event of default of our counterparty or client. Our credit risk may be exacerbated when the collateral held cannot be realized upon or is liquidated at prices insufficient to recover the full amount of the loan or derivative exposure due to us. In deciding whether to extend credit or enter into other transactions, we may rely on information furnished by or on behalf of counterparties and clients, including financial statements, credit reports and other information. We may also rely on representations of those counterparties, clients, or other third parties as to the accuracy and completeness of that information. The inaccuracy of that information or those representations affects our ability to accurately evaluate the default risk of a counterparty or client. Given the Dodd-Frank legislative mandate to centrally clear eligible derivative contracts, we rely on central clearing counterparties to remain open and operationally viable at all times. The possibility of a large member failure or a cybersecurity breach could result in a counterparty or client disruption.
Various factors may cause our allowance for loan and lease losses to increase.
We maintain an ALLL (a reserve established through a provision for loan and lease losses charged to expense) that represents our estimate of losses based on our evaluation of risks within our existing portfolio of loans. The level of the allowance at December 31, 2021 represents management’s estimate of expected credit losses over the contractual life of our existing loan portfolio. The determination of the appropriate level of the ALLL inherently involves a degree of subjectivity and requires that we make significant estimates of current credit risks and current trends and reasonable and supportable forecasts of future economic conditions, all of which may undergo frequent and material changes. Changes in economic conditions affecting borrowers, the softening of certain macroeconomic variables that we are more susceptible to, such as GDP, unemployment, corporate bond rates, household income, 30-year mortgage rates and real estate values, along with updated information regarding existing loans, identification of additional problem loans and other factors, both within and outside of our control, may indicate the need for an increase in the ALLL.
Declining asset prices could adversely affect us.
During the Great Recession, the volatility and disruption that the capital and credit markets experienced reached extreme levels. This severe market disruption led to the failure of several substantial financial institutions, which caused the credit markets to constrict and caused a widespread liquidation of assets. These asset sales, along with asset sales by other leveraged investors, including some hedge funds, rapidly drove down prices and valuations across a wide variety of traded asset classes. Asset price deterioration has a negative effect on the valuation of certain of the asset categories represented on our balance sheet and reduces our ability to sell assets at prices we deem acceptable.
The most recent recession, resulting from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, does not appear to have had significant lasting impacts on collateral value. However, there are still risks to the current recovery that could reverse recent stable trends in asset prices.
These risks include:
•A correction in equity or housing markets;
•Another surge in COVID-19 cases leading to a decrease in economic activity;
•Further supply chain issues such as closed factories and disrupted port activity; and
•Labor-supply constraints could continue longer than anticipated, leading to slowing job growth and boosting wages along with inflation (wage-price spiral).
The continued impact of the COVID-19 global pandemic could result in a deterioration of asset quality and an increase in credit losses.
The global pandemic shut down large portions of the U.S. economy and has negatively impacted many of our customers. As a result, many businesses applied for payment deferrals and loan modifications. As of December 31, 2021, we have an immaterial amount of loans with an active COVID-19 deferral status. As of December 31, 2021, 96% of COVID-19 deferrals that have expired are current. Net downgrades reached their peak in the third quarter of 2020. The portfolio has been in an upgrade cycle ever since with positive net upgrades throughout 2021. As a result, we have decreased our loan loss reserve during 2021 in keeping with our established methodology. The continued impact of the pandemic, supply chain and/or inflationary pressures could result in increasing loan loss reserves.
Labor shortages and constraints in the supply chain could adversely affect our clients’ operations as well as our operations.
Many sectors in the United States and around the world are experiencing a shortage of workers. Many of our commercial clients have been impacted by this shortage along with disruptions and constraints in the supply chain, which could adversely impact their operations.This could lead to reduced cash flow and difficulty in making loan repayments. The financial services industry has also been affected by the shortage of workers, which Key has experienced with respect to certain roles (entry level and technology roles, specifically), as well as increasing wages for entry level and certain professional roles. This may lead to open positions remaining unfilled for longer periods of time or a need to increase wages to attract workers. We have had to recently increase wages in certain positions to attract talent, particularly in entry-level type positions and certain specialty areas.
II. Compliance Risk
We are subject to extensive government regulation, supervision, and tax legislation.
As a financial services institution, we are subject to extensive federal and state regulation, supervision, and tax legislation. Banking regulations are primarily intended to protect depositors’ funds, the DIF, consumers, taxpayers, and the banking system as a whole, not our debtholders or shareholders. These regulations increase our costs and affect our lending practices, capital structure, investment practices, dividend policy, ability to repurchase our common shares, and growth, among other things.
KeyBank and KeyCorp remain covered institutions under the Dodd-Frank Act’s heightened prudential standards and regulations, including its provisions designed to protect consumers from financial abuse. Like similarly situated institutions, Key undergoes routine scrutiny from bank supervisors in the examination process and is subject to enforcement of regulations at the federal and state levels, particularly with respect to consumer banking-related
practices, including fair and responsible banking, fair lending, unfair, deceptive or abusive practices, and the Community Reinvestment Act, as well as compliance with AML, BSA and Office of Foreign Assets Control efforts. Federal rulemaking bodies continue to pass new, or modifications to, significant regulations with upcoming effective dates. There has also been an increase in state legislative activity, particularly in areas such as student lending and privacy. As new privacy-related laws and regulations, such as the California Consumer Privacy Act, are implemented in jurisdictions in which KeyBank operates, the time and resources needed for us to comply with such laws and regulations, as well as our potential liability for noncompliance and reporting obligations in the case of data breaches, may significantly increase. Compliance with these laws and regulations may require us to change our policies, procedures, and technology for information security and segregation of data, which could, among other things, make us more vulnerable to operational failures, and subject us to monetary penalties for breach of such laws and regulations. As a result, some uncertainty remains as to the aggregate impact upon Key of significant regulations.
Changes to existing statutes and regulations, and taxes (including industry-specific taxes and surcharges), or their interpretation or implementation, including any changes resulting from the recent change in U.S. presidential administration, could affect us in substantial and unpredictable ways. Interpretation of consumer banking-related regulations may evolve as the industry and the regulators seek to increase access to banking products and services by consumers. These changes may subject us to additional costs and increase our litigation risk should we fail to appropriately comply. Such changes may also impact consumer behavior, limit the types of financial services and products we may offer, affect the investments we make, and change the manner in which we operate.
Certain federal regulations have been in existence for decades without modification to account for modern banking practices, such as digital delivery of products and services, which can create challenges in execution and in the examination process. Emerging technologies, such as cryptocurrencies, could limit KeyBank’s ability to track the movement of funds. KeyBank’s ability to comply with BSA/AML and other regulations is dependent on its ability to improve detection and reporting capabilities and reduce variation in control processes and oversight accountability.
Additionally, federal banking law grants substantial enforcement powers to federal banking regulators. This enforcement authority includes, among other things, the ability to assess civil money penalties, fines, or restitution, to issue cease and desist or removal orders, and to initiate injunctive actions against banking organizations and affiliated parties. These enforcement actions may be initiated for violations of laws and regulations, for practices determined to be unsafe or unsound, or for practices or acts that are determined to be unfair, deceptive, or abusive. Failure to comply with these and other regulations, and supervisory expectations related thereto, may result in fines, penalties, lawsuits, regulatory sanctions, reputational damage, or restrictions on our business. Moreover, different government administrations may have different regulatory priorities, which may impact the level of regulation of financial institutions and the enforcement environment.
For more information, see “Supervision and Regulation” in Item 1 of this report.
Changes in accounting policies, standards, and interpretations could materially affect how we report our financial condition and results of operations.
The FASB periodically changes the financial accounting and reporting standards governing the preparation of Key’s financial statements. Additionally, those bodies that establish and/or interpret the financial accounting and reporting standards (such as the FASB, SEC, and banking regulators) may change prior interpretations or positions on how these standards should be applied. These changes can be difficult to predict and can materially affect how Key records and reports its financial condition and results of operations. In some cases, Key could be required to retroactively apply a new or revised standard, resulting in changes to previously reported financial results.
III. Operational Risk
We are subject to a variety of operational risks.
In addition to the other risks discussed in this section, we are subject to operational risk, which represents the risk of loss resulting from human error, inadequate or failed internal processes, internal controls, systems, and external events. Operational risk includes the risk of fraud by employees or others outside of Key, clerical and record-keeping errors, nonperformance by vendors, threats from cyber activity, and computer/telecommunications malfunctions. Fraudulent activity has escalated, become more sophisticated, and is ever evolving as there are more
options to access financial services. For instance, in our Form 8-K filed July 16, 2019, we disclosed that on or about July 9, 2019, we discovered fraudulent activity associated with transactions conducted in the third quarter of 2019 by a business customer of KeyBank. This fraudulent activity resulted in $139 million of net loan charge-offs in 2019. Operational risk also encompasses compliance and legal risk, which is the risk of loss from violations of, or noncompliance with, laws, rules, regulations, prescribed practices, or ethical standards, as well as the risk of our noncompliance with contractual and other obligations. We are also exposed to operational risk through our outsourcing arrangements, and the effect that changes in circumstances or capabilities of our outsourcing vendors can have on our ability to continue to perform operational functions necessary to our business, such as certain loan processing functions. For example, breakdowns or failures of our vendors’ systems or employees could be a source of operational risk to us. Resulting losses from operational risk could take the form of explicit charges, increased operational costs (including remediation costs), harm to our reputation, inability to secure insurance, litigation, regulatory intervention or sanctions, or foregone business opportunities.
Our information systems may experience an interruption or breach in security.
We rely heavily on communications, information systems (both internal and provided by third parties), and the internet to conduct our business. Our business is dependent on our ability to process and monitor large numbers of daily transactions in compliance with legal, regulatory, and internal standards and specifications. In addition, a significant portion of our operations relies heavily on the secure processing, storage, and transmission of personal and confidential information, such as the personal information of our customers and clients. These risks may increase in the future as we continue to increase mobile payments and other internet-based product offerings, expand our internal usage of web/cloud-based products and applications, and maintain and develop new relationships with third and fourth party providers. In addition, our ability to extend protections to customers’ information to individual customer devices is limited, especially if the customers willingly provide third parties access to their devices or information.
In the event of a failure, interruption, or breach of our information systems or that of a third party that provides services to us or our customers, we may be unable to avoid impact to our customers. Such a failure, interruption, or breach could result in legal liability, remediation costs, regulatory action, or reputational harm. Other U.S. financial service institutions and companies have reported breaches, some severe, in the security of their websites or other systems and several financial institutions, including Key, have experienced significant distributed denial-of-service attacks, some of which involved sophisticated and targeted attacks intended to disable or degrade service, or sabotage systems. Other attacks have attempted to obtain unauthorized access to confidential information, hold for ransom, or alter or destroy data, often through the introduction of computer viruses or malware, phishing, cyberattacks, credential stuffing, and other means. To the extent that we use third parties to provide services to our clients, we seek to minimize the risk by performing due diligence and monitoring the third party, but we cannot control all of the risks at these third parties. Should an adverse event affecting another company’s systems occur, we may not have indemnification or other protection from the other company sufficient to fully compensate us or otherwise protect us or our clients from the consequences.
In addition, our customers routinely use Key-issued credit and debit cards to pay for transactions conducted with businesses in person and over the internet. If the business’s systems that process or store debit or credit card information experience a security breach, our card holders may experience fraud on their card accounts. We may suffer losses associated with such fraudulent transactions, as well as for other costs, such as replacing impacted cards. Key also provides card transaction processing services to some merchant customers under agreements we have with payment networks such as Mastercard. Under these agreements, we may be responsible for certain losses and penalties if one of our merchant customers suffers a data breach.
We also face risks related to the increasing interdependence and interconnectivity of financial entities and technology systems. A technology failure, cyberattack or other security breach that significantly compromises the systems of one or more financial parties or service providers could have a material impact on counterparties or market participants, including us. Any third-party technology failure, cyberattack, or security breach could adversely affect our ability to effect transactions, service clients, or otherwise operate our business.
To date, none of these efforts have had a material adverse effect on our business or operations or resulted in any material disruption of our operations or material harm to our customers. Such security attacks can originate from a wide variety of sources/malicious actors, including, but not limited to, persons who constitute an insider threat, who are involved with organized crime, or who may be linked to terrorist organizations or hostile foreign governments. Those same parties may also attempt to fraudulently induce employees, customers, or other users of our systems
to disclose sensitive information in order to gain access to our data or that of our customers or clients through social engineering, phishing, and other methods. Our security systems may not be able to protect our information systems from similar attacks due to the rapid evolution and creation of sophisticated cyberattacks. We are also subject to the risk that a malicious actor or our employees may intercept and/or transmit or otherwise misuse unauthorized confidential or proprietary information. An interception, misuse, or mishandling of personal, confidential, or proprietary information being sent to or received from a customer or third party could result in legal liability, remediation costs, regulatory action, and reputational harm. Over the last few years, several large companies have disclosed that they suffered substantial data security breaches, compromising millions of user accounts and credentials. To date, our losses and costs related to these breaches have not been material, but other similar events in the future could have a significant impact on us.
We have incurred and will continue to incur significant expense in an effort to improve the reliability of our systems and their security against external and internal threats. Nonetheless, there remains the risk that one or more adverse events might occur. If one does occur, we might not be able to remediate the event or its consequences timely or adequately. While we do maintain cyber information security and business interruption insurance, losses from a major interruption may exceed our coverage.
We rely on third parties to perform significant operational services for us.
Third parties perform significant operational services on our behalf. Additionally, some of our third parties outsource aspects of their operations to other third parties (commonly referred to as “fourth parties”). These parties are subject to similar risks as Key relating to cybersecurity and breakdowns or failures of their own systems, internal processes and controls, or employees. One or more of these third parties may experience a cybersecurity event or operational disruption and, if any such event does occur, it may not be adequately addressed, either operationally or financially, by such third party. Certain of these third parties may have limited indemnification obligations or may not have the financial capacity to satisfy their indemnification obligations. Financial or operational difficulties of a third party could also impair our operations if those difficulties interfere with such third party’s ability to serve us. Additionally, some of our outsourcing arrangements are located overseas and, therefore, are subject to risks unique to the regions in which they operate. If a critical third party is unable to meet our needs in a timely manner or if the services or products provided by such third party are terminated or otherwise delayed and if we are not able to identify or develop alternative sources for these services and products quickly and cost-effectively, it could have a material adverse effect on our business. Additionally, regulatory guidance adopted by federal banking regulators related to how banks select, engage, and manage their third parties affects the circumstances and conditions under which we work with third parties and the cost of managing such relationships.
We are subject to claims and litigation, which could result in significant financial liability and/or reputational risk.
From time to time, customers, vendors, or other parties may make claims and take legal action against us. We maintain reserves for certain claims when deemed appropriate based upon our assessment that a loss is probable, estimable, and consistent with applicable accounting guidance. At any given time, we have a variety of legal actions asserted against us in various stages of litigation. Resolution of a legal action can often take years. Whether any particular claims and legal actions are founded or unfounded, if such claims and legal actions are not resolved in our favor, they may result in significant financial liability and adversely affect how the market perceives us and our products and services as well as impact customer demand for those products and services.
We are also involved, from time to time, in other reviews, investigations, and proceedings (both formal and informal) by governmental and self-regulatory agencies regarding our business, including, among other things, accounting, compliance, and operational matters, certain of which may result in adverse judgments, settlements, fines, penalties, injunctions, or other relief. The number and risk of these investigations and proceedings has increased in recent years in the financial services industry due to legal changes to the consumer protection laws provided for by the Dodd-Frank Act and the creation of the CFPB.
Our controls and procedures may fail or be circumvented, and our methods of reducing risk exposure may not be effective.
We regularly review and update our internal controls, disclosure controls and procedures, and corporate governance policies and procedures. We also maintain an ERM program designed to identify, measure, monitor, report, and analyze our risks. Additionally, our internal audit function provides an independent assessment and
testing of Key’s internal controls, policies, and procedures. Any system of controls and any system to reduce risk exposure, however well designed, operated, and tested, is based in part on certain assumptions and can provide only reasonable, not absolute, assurances that the objectives of the system are met. The systems may not work as intended or be circumvented by employees, third parties, or others outside of Key. Additionally, instruments, systems, and strategies used to hedge or otherwise manage exposure to various types of market compliance, credit, liquidity, operational, and business risks and enterprise-wide risk could be less effective than anticipated. As a result, we may not be able to effectively or fully mitigate our risk exposures in particular market environments or against particular types of risk.
Our operations and financial performance could be adversely affected by severe weather and natural disasters exacerbated by climate change.
Natural disasters could have a material adverse effect on our financial position and results of operations, and the timing and effects of any natural disaster cannot accurately be predicted. The frequency and severity of some types of natural disasters, including wildfires, tornadoes and hurricanes, have increased as a result of climate change, which further reduces our ability to predict their effects accurately. These and other natural disasters could affect Key directly (for example, by interrupting our systems, damaging our facilities or otherwise preventing us from conducting our business in the ordinary course) or indirectly (for example, by damaging or destroying customer businesses or otherwise impairing customers’ ability to repay their loans, or by damaging or destroying property pledged as collateral for loans made by Key).
Societal responses to climate change could adversely affect Key’s business and performance, including indirectly through impacts on Key’s customers.
Concerns over the long-term impacts of climate change have led and may continue to lead to governmental efforts around the world to mitigate those impacts. New and/or more stringent regulatory requirements could materially affect our results by requiring us to take costly measures to comply with any new laws or regulations related to climate change that may be forthcoming. Consumers and businesses also may change their own behavior as a result of these concerns. Key and its customers will need to respond to new laws and regulations, as well as consumer and business preferences resulting from climate change concerns. Key and its customers may face cost increases, asset value reductions, operating process changes, and the like. The impact on Key’s customers will likely vary depending on their specific attributes, including reliance on or role in carbon intensive activities. Changes to regulations or market shifts to low-carbon products could impact the credit worthiness or the value of assets securing loans of some of our customers, which may require us to adjust our lending portfolios and business strategies. Key’s efforts to take these risks into account in making lending and other decisions, including by increasing business relationships with climate-friendly companies, may not be effective in protecting Key from the negative impact of new laws and regulations or changes in consumer or business behavior.
The COVID-19 global pandemic has resulted in increased operational risks.
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in heightened operational risks. Much of our workforce has been working remotely, and increased levels of remote access create additional cybersecurity risk and opportunities for cybercriminals to exploit vulnerabilities. Cybercriminals may increase their attempts to compromise business emails, including an increase in phishing attempts, and fraudulent vendors or other parties may view the pandemic as an opportunity to prey upon consumers and businesses during this time. Cybercriminals have also found new means of stealing identities and exploiting stolen identities during the pandemic. This has resulted in increased fraud losses to us and the financial services industry. The increase in online and remote banking activities may also increase the risk of fraud in certain instances. In addition, state and local orders and regulations regarding the conduct of in-person business operations, including new or reimplemented measures imposed as a result of new COVID-19 variants, some of which have been, and may be in the future, more virulent or transmissible than the initial strain, and ongoing resurgences of COVID-19 cases across the U.S. may impact our ability to operate at normal levels and to restore operations to their pre-pandemic level for an unknown period of time. Separately, our third-party service providers have also been impacted by the pandemic and we have experienced some disruption to certain services performed by vendors. To date, these disruptions have not been material and we have developed solutions to work around these disruptions, but we may experience additional disruption in the future, which could adversely impact our business.
IV. Liquidity Risk
Capital and liquidity requirements imposed by banking regulations require banks and BHCs to maintain more and higher quality capital and more and higher quality liquid assets.
Evolving capital standards resulting from the Dodd-Frank Act and the Regulatory Capital Rules adopted by our regulators have had and will continue to have a significant impact on banks and BHCs, including Key. For a detailed explanation of the capital and liquidity rules that became effective for us on a phased-in basis on January 1, 2015, see the section titled “Regulatory capital requirements” under the heading “Supervision and Regulation” in Item 1 of this report.
The Federal Reserve’s capital standards require Key to maintain more and higher quality capital and could limit our business activities (including lending) and our ability to expand organically or through acquisitions. They could also result in our taking steps to increase our capital that may be dilutive to shareholders or limit our ability to pay dividends or otherwise return capital to shareholders.
In addition, the liquidity standards require us to hold high-quality liquid assets, may require us to change our future mix of investment alternatives, and may impact future business relationships with certain customers. Additionally, support of liquidity standards may be satisfied through the use of term wholesale borrowings, which tend to have a higher cost than that of traditional core deposits.
Further, the Federal Reserve has detailed the processes that BHCs should maintain to ensure they hold adequate capital under severely adverse conditions and have ready access to funding before engaging in any capital activities. These rules could limit Key’s ability to make distributions, including paying out dividends or buying back shares. For more information, see the section titled “Regulatory capital requirements” under the heading “Supervision and Regulation” in Item 1 of this report.
Recently, certain regulatory rule changes related to tailoring outlined in EGRRCPA have been finalized. While marginal relief from certain capital and liquidity standards has been afforded to Key (such as relief from LCR disclosure requirements), overall capital and liquidity management practices and expectations will remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. Moreover, Key does not anticipate significant changes to its overall liquidity and capital levels or composition as a result of the final rules.
Federal agencies’ actions to ensure stability of the U.S. financial system may have disruptive effects on us.
The federal government has taken unprecedented steps to provide stability to and confidence in the financial markets. For example, the Federal Reserve initiated a round of emergency interest rate cuts designed to mitigate some of the economic effects resulting from the pandemic. In the future, federal agencies may no longer support such initiatives. The discontinuation of such initiatives may have unanticipated or unintended impacts, perhaps severe, on the financial markets. These effects could include higher debt yields, a flatter or steeper slope to the yield curve, or unanticipated changes to quality spread premiums that may not follow historical relationships or patterns. In addition, new initiatives or legislation may not be implemented, or, if implemented, may not be adequate to counter any negative effects of discontinuing programs or, in the event of an economic downturn, to support and stabilize the economy.
We rely on dividends by our subsidiaries for most of our funds.
We are a legal entity separate and distinct from our subsidiaries. With the exception of cash that we may raise from debt and equity issuances, we receive substantially all of our funding from dividends by our subsidiaries. Dividends by our subsidiaries are the principal source of funds for the dividends we pay on our common and preferred stock and interest and principal payments on our debt. Federal banking law and regulations limit the amount of dividends that KeyBank (KeyCorp’s largest subsidiary) can pay. For further information on the regulatory restrictions on the payment of dividends by KeyBank, see “Supervision and Regulation” in Item 1 of this report.
In the event KeyBank is unable to pay dividends to us, we may not be able to service debt, pay obligations, or pay dividends on our common or preferred stock. Such a situation could result in Key losing access to alternative wholesale funding sources. In addition, our right to participate in a distribution of assets upon a subsidiary’s liquidation or reorganization is subject to the prior claims of the subsidiary’s creditors.
We are subject to liquidity risk, which could negatively affect our funding levels.
Market conditions or other events could negatively affect our access to or the cost of funding, affecting our ongoing ability to accommodate liability maturities and deposit withdrawals, meet contractual obligations, or fund asset growth and new business initiatives at a reasonable cost, in a timely manner and without adverse consequences.
Although we maintain a liquid asset portfolio and have implemented strategies to maintain sufficient and diverse sources of funding to accommodate planned as well as unanticipated changes in assets, liabilities, and off-balance sheet commitments under various economic conditions (including a reduced level of wholesale funding sources), a substantial, unexpected, or prolonged change in the level or cost of liquidity could have a material adverse effect on us. If the cost effectiveness or the availability of supply in these credit markets is reduced for a prolonged period of time, our funding needs may require us to access funding and manage liquidity by other means. These alternatives may include generating client deposits, securitizing or selling loans, extending the maturity of wholesale borrowings, borrowing under certain secured borrowing arrangements, using relationships developed with a variety of fixed income investors, and further managing loan growth and investment opportunities. These alternative means of funding may result in an increase to the overall cost of funds and may not be available under stressed conditions, which would cause us to liquidate a portion of our liquid asset portfolio to meet any funding needs.
Our credit ratings affect our liquidity position.
The rating agencies regularly evaluate the securities issued by KeyCorp and KeyBank. The ratings of our long-term debt and other securities are based on a number of factors, including our financial strength, ability to generate earnings, and other factors. Some of these factors are not entirely within our control, such as conditions affecting the financial services industry and the economy and changes in rating methodologies. Changes in any of these factors could impact our ability to maintain our current credit ratings. A rating downgrade of the securities of KeyCorp or KeyBank could adversely affect our access to liquidity and could significantly increase our cost of funds, trigger additional collateral or funding requirements, and decrease the number of investors and counterparties willing to lend to us, reducing our ability to generate income.
The COVID-19 global pandemic may continue to cause uncertainty in markets and may result in an increase in our cost of funds.
The COVID-19 global pandemic has caused a great amount of uncertainty in markets, causing credit markets to seize and forcing companies, including our clients, to seek liquidity in the face of uncertain future cash flows. To the extent that clients’ funds are not used as working capital and not placed on deposit with KeyBank, we could be faced with funding significant draws of committed lending facilities, along with requests for new facilities from our clients. Clients may look to Key for additional funding vehicles should the capital markets become more unstable and illiquid. As clients use deposit balances to fund their businesses, this may put funding pressure on Key, which may cause us to leverage our secured funding sources or pay higher rates than normal for additional funding.
V. Market Risk
A worsening of the U.S. economy and volatile or recessionary conditions in the U.S. or abroad could negatively affect our business or our access to capital markets.
A worsening of economic and market conditions or downside shocks could result in adverse effects on Key and others in the financial services industry. The prolonged low-interest rate environment, despite a generally recovering economy, has presented a challenge for the industry, including Key, and affects business and financial performance.
In particular, we could face some of the following risks, and other unforeseeable risks, in connection with a downturn in the economic and market environment or in the face of downside shocks or a recession, whether in the United States or internationally:
•A loss of confidence in the financial services industry and the debt and equity markets by investors, placing pressure on the price of Key’s common shares or decreasing the credit or liquidity available to Key;
•A decrease in consumer and business confidence levels generally, decreasing credit usage and investment or increasing delinquencies and defaults;
•A decrease in household or corporate incomes, reducing demand for Key’s products and services;
•A decrease in the value of collateral securing loans to Key’s borrowers or a decrease in the quality of Key’s loan portfolio, increasing loan charge-offs and reducing Key’s net income;
•A decrease in our ability to liquidate positions at acceptable market prices;
•The extended continuation of the current low-interest rate environment, continuing or increasing downward pressure to our net interest income;
•An increase in competition or consolidation in the financial services industry;
•Increased concern over and scrutiny of the capital and liquidity levels of financial institutions generally, and those of our transaction counterparties specifically;
•A decrease in confidence in the creditworthiness of the United States or other issuers whose securities we hold; and
•An increase in limitations on or the regulation of financial services companies like Key.
We are subject to interest rate risk, which could adversely affect net interest income.
Our earnings are largely dependent upon our net interest income. Net interest income is the difference between interest income earned on interest-earning assets such as loans and securities and interest expense paid on interest-bearing liabilities such as deposits and borrowed funds. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors that are beyond our control, including general economic conditions, the competitive environment within our markets, consumer preferences for specific loan and deposit products, and policies of various governmental and regulatory agencies, in particular, the Federal Reserve. Changes in monetary policy, including changes in interest rate controls being applied by the Federal Reserve, could influence the amount of interest we receive on loans and securities, the amount of interest we pay on deposits and borrowings, our ability to originate loans and obtain deposits, and the fair value of our financial assets and liabilities. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and begins to reverse pandemic-related stimulus programs, the behavior of national money market rate indices, the correlation of consumer deposit rates to financial market interest rates, and the setting of benchmark rates may not follow historical relationships, which could influence net interest income and net interest margin.
Moreover, if the interest we pay on deposits and other borrowings increases at a faster rate than the interest we receive on loans and other investments, net interest income, and therefore our earnings, would be adversely affected. Conversely, earnings could also be adversely affected if the interest we receive on loans and other investments falls more quickly than the interest we pay on deposits and other borrowings.
Uncertainty surrounding the transition from LIBOR to an alternate reference rate may adversely affect our business.
On July 27, 2017, the Chief Executive of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “Authority”), which regulates LIBOR, announced that the Authority intends to stop persuading or compelling banks to submit rates for the calculation of LIBOR to the administrator of LIBOR after 2021. On March 5, 2021, ICE Benchmark Administration (“IBA”), the FCA-regulated and authorized administrator of LIBOR, confirmed, following a consultation process occurring during the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021, its intention to cease one-week and two-month US$ LIBOR settings at December 31, 2021, and cease the US$ LIBOR panel at June 30, 2023, effectively ceasing all other US$ LIBOR tenors. A transition away from the widespread use of LIBOR to alternative rates is currently underway, as regulators have issued guidance indicating that new LIBOR originations should not extend beyond December 31, 2021. Although no consensus exists at this time as to what benchmark rate or rates may become accepted alternatives to LIBOR, in the United States, the Alternative Reference Rates of the Federal Reserve (“ARRC”) and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York started in May 2018 to publish the Secured Overnight Finance Rate (“SOFR”) as an alternative to U.S. dollar LIBOR. SOFR is a broad measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight that is collateralized by U.S. treasury securities. While SOFR has been considered a likely alternative to LIBOR, and has been recommended by the ARRC, issues remain as to whether it will be the primary benchmark replacement or whether different credit sensitive benchmarks could also become market-accepted. Accordingly, whether SOFR will become a market-accepted alternative to LIBOR remains uncertain. At this time, it is not possible to predict the effect of the Authority’s and IBA’s announcements, or other regulatory changes or announcements, the uncertainty surrounding regulatory guidance and market conventions impacting LIBOR activity post December 31, 2021, any establishment of alternative reference rates, or any other reforms to LIBOR that may be enacted in the United Kingdom, the United States, or elsewhere. The uncertainty regarding the transition from LIBOR to another benchmark rate or rates could have adverse impacts on floating-rate obligations, loans, deposits, derivatives, and other financial instruments that currently use LIBOR as a benchmark rate and, ultimately, adversely affect KeyCorp’s financial condition and results of operations. The adverse impact could take various forms and is dependent upon certain factors outside of our control such as: timing of adoption by market forces of a new widely
accepted LIBOR replacement, timing of LIBOR cessation, counterparty acceptance of a new reference rate for both new and existing contracts, and competition presented by non-regulated entities, among others. Additionally, since LIBOR and any replacement reference rate may have significantly different attributes, it is difficult to predict the amount of increased costs associated with implementing the transition to a new reference rate, including costs relative to product changes, systems changes, compliance and operational oversight costs, and legal expenses, among others.
Our profitability depends upon economic conditions in the geographic regions where we have significant operations and in certain market segments in which we conduct significant business.
We have concentrations of loans and other business activities in geographic regions where our bank branches are located — Washington; Oregon/Alaska; Rocky Mountains; Indiana/Northwest Ohio/Michigan; Central/Southwest Ohio; East Ohio/Western Pennsylvania; Atlantic; Western New York; Eastern New York; and New England — and additional exposure to geographic regions outside of our branch footprint. Economic growth in the various regions where we operate has been uneven, and the health of the overall U.S. economy may differ from the economy of any particular geographic region. Adverse conditions in a geographic region such as inflation, unemployment, recession, natural disasters, impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, or other factors beyond our control could impact the ability of borrowers in these regions to repay their loans, decrease the value of collateral securing loans made in these regions, or affect the ability of our customers in these regions to continue conducting business with us.
Additionally, a significant portion of our business activities are concentrated within the commercial real estate, healthcare, finance, and utilities market segments. The profitability of some of these market segments depends upon the health of the overall economy, seasonality, the impact of regulation, and other factors that are beyond our control and may be beyond the control of our customers in these market segments.
An economic downturn in one or more geographic regions where we conduct our business, or any significant or prolonged impact on the profitability of one or more of the market segments with which we conduct significant business activity, could adversely affect the demand for our products and services, the ability of our customers to repay loans, the value of the collateral securing loans, and the stability of our deposit funding sources.
The soundness of other financial institutions could adversely affect us.
Our ability to engage in routine funding transactions could be adversely affected by the actions and commercial soundness of other financial institutions. We have exposure to many different industries and counterparties in the financial services industries, and we routinely execute transactions with such counterparties, including brokers and dealers, commercial banks, investment banks, mutual and hedge funds, insurance companies, and other institutional clients. Financial services institutions are interrelated as a result of trading, clearing, counterparty, or other relationships. Defaults by one or more financial services institutions have led to, and may cause, market-wide liquidity problems and losses. Many of our transactions with other financial institutions expose us to credit risk in the event of default of a counterparty or client. In addition, our credit risk may be affected when the collateral held by us cannot be realized or is liquidated at prices not sufficient to recover the full amount of our loan or derivatives exposure.
Less regulated and poorly capitalized non-bank financial institutions may be particularly vulnerable to asset quality deterioration as their borrower’s ability to service their obligations declines amid the pandemic. This could put additional stress on traditional lenders.
VI. Reputation Risk
Damage to our reputation could significantly harm our businesses.
Our ability to attract and retain customers, clients, investors, and highly skilled management and employees is affected by our reputation. Significant harm to our reputation can arise from various sources, including employee misconduct, actual or perceived unethical behavior, litigation or regulatory outcomes, failing to deliver minimum or required standards of service and quality, compliance failures, disclosure of confidential information, significant or numerous failures, interruptions or breaches of our information systems, failure to meet external commitments and goals, including financial, and the activities of our clients, customers and counterparties, including vendors. In addition, negative information posted about Key on social media websites, whether or not factually correct, may affect our reputation and our business prospects. Actions by the financial services industry generally or by certain members or individuals in the industry may have a significant adverse effect on our reputation. We could also suffer significant reputational harm if we fail to properly identify and manage potential conflicts of interest. Management of potential conflicts of interests is complex as we expand our business activities through more numerous transactions, obligations, and interests with and among our clients. The actual or perceived failure to adequately address conflicts of interest could affect the willingness of clients to deal with us, which could adversely affect our businesses.
In addition, social and environmental activists are increasingly targeting financial services firms with public criticism for their relationships with clients engaged in industries they perceive to be harmful to communities or the environment. Such criticism directed at Key could generate dissatisfaction among our stakeholders. Although we take steps to minimize reputation risk in dealing with our customers and other constituencies, Key, as a large diversified financial services company with a high industry profile, is inherently exposed to this risk. Furthermore, investors have begun to consider how corporations are incorporating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) matters, including climate change, into their business strategy. These shifts in investing priorities may result in adverse effects on the trading price of KeyCorp’s common stock if investors determine that KeyCorp has not made sufficient progress on ESG matters.
VII. Strategic Risk
We may not realize the expected benefits of our strategic initiatives.
Our ability to compete depends on a number of factors, including, among others, our ability to develop and successfully execute our strategic plans and initiatives. Our strategic priorities include growing profitably and maintaining financial strength; effectively managing risk and reward; engaging a high-performing, talented, and diverse workforce; investing in digitalization to drive growth and simplification; embracing the changes required by our clients and the marketplace; and acquiring, expanding, and retaining targeted client relationships. The success of these initiatives can be subject to changes in the macroeconomic environment which is beyond our control. In addition, our inability to execute on or achieve the anticipated outcomes of our strategic priorities, or to do so in the expected timeframe, may affect how the market perceives us and could impede our growth and profitability.
We operate in a highly competitive industry.
We face substantial competition in all areas of our operations from a variety of competitors, some of which are larger and may have more financial resources than us. Our competitors primarily include national and super-regional banks as well as smaller community banks within the various geographic regions in which we operate. We also face competition from many other types of financial institutions, including, without limitation, savings associations, credit unions, mortgage banking companies, finance companies, mutual funds, insurance companies, investment management firms, investment banking firms, broker-dealers and other local, regional, national, and global financial services firms. In addition, technology has lowered barriers to entry and made it possible for nonbanks, including large technology companies, to offer products and services traditionally provided by banks. We expect the competitive landscape of the financial services industry to become even more intense as a result of legislative, regulatory, structural, customer preference, and technological changes.
Our ability to compete successfully depends on a number of factors, including: our ability to develop and execute strategic plans and initiatives; our ability to develop, maintain, and build long-term customer relationships based on quality service and competitive prices; our ability to develop competitive products and technologies demanded by our customers, while maintaining our high ethical standards and an effective compliance program and keeping our assets safe and sound; our ability to attract, retain, and develop a highly competent employee workforce; and
industry and general economic trends. Increased competition in the financial services industry, or our failure to perform in any of these areas, could significantly weaken our competitive position, which could adversely affect our growth and profitability.
Maintaining or increasing our market share depends upon our ability to adapt our products and services to evolving industry standards and consumer preferences, while maintaining competitive prices.
The continuous, widespread adoption of new technologies, including internet services and mobile devices (such as smartphones and tablets), requires us to evaluate our product and service offerings to ensure they remain competitive. Our success depends, in part, on our ability to adapt our products and services, as well as our distribution of them, to evolving industry standards and consumer preferences. New technologies have altered consumer behavior by allowing consumers to complete transactions such as paying bills or transferring funds directly without the assistance of banks. New products allow consumers to maintain funds in brokerage accounts or mutual funds that would have historically been held as bank deposits. The process of eliminating banks as intermediaries, known as “disintermediation,” could result in the loss of fee income, as well as the loss of customer loans and deposits and related income generated from those products.
The increasing pressure from our competitors, both bank and nonbank, to keep pace and adopt new technologies and products and services requires us to incur substantial expense. We may be unsuccessful in developing or introducing new products and services, modifying our existing products and services, adapting to changing consumer preferences and spending and saving habits, achieving market acceptance or regulatory approval, sufficiently developing or maintaining a loyal customer base, or offering products and services at prices equal to or lower than the prices offered by our competitors. These risks may affect our ability to achieve growth in our market share and could reduce both our revenue streams from certain products and services and our revenues from our net interest income.
We may not be able to attract and retain skilled people.
Our success depends, in large part, on our ability to attract, retain, motivate, and develop a talented and diverse workforce. Competition for the best people in most of our business activities is ongoing and can be intense, and we may not be able to retain or hire the people we want or need to serve our customers. Additionally, the profile of some of the people we target has changed significantly, causing those with whom we compete for talent to also change and to include nonbanks and large technology companies. We face additional competition particularly for employees who are able to work remotely, as the impact of COVID-19 has increased remote opportunities, which is likely to survive the pandemic. In addition, we may be constrained in hiring and retaining sufficient qualified employees due to general labor shortages in our industry, including potential employee attrition resulting from any vaccine mandates that may be applicable to us. To attract and retain qualified employees, we must compensate these employees at market levels. Typically, those levels have caused employee compensation to be our greatest expense.
Our incentive compensation structure and sales practices are subject to review by our regulators, who may identify deficiencies in the structure of or issue additional guidance on our compensation practices, causing us to make changes that may affect our ability to offer competitive compensation to these individuals or that place us at a disadvantage to non-financial service competitors. Our ability to attract and retain talented employees may be affected by these developments or any new executive compensation limits and regulations.
Acquisitions or strategic partnerships may disrupt our business and dilute shareholder value.
Acquiring other banks, bank branches, or other businesses involves various risks commonly associated with acquisitions or partnerships, including exposure to unknown or contingent liabilities of the acquired company; diversion of our management’s time and attention; significant integration risk with respect to employees, accounting systems, and technology platforms; increased regulatory scrutiny; and, the possible loss of key employees and customers of the acquired company. We regularly evaluate merger and acquisition and strategic partnership opportunities and conduct due diligence activities related to possible transactions. As a result, mergers or acquisitions involving cash, debt or equity securities may occur at any time. Acquisitions may involve the payment of a premium over book and market values. Therefore, some dilution of our tangible book value and net income per common share could occur in connection with any future transaction.
VIII. Model Risk
We rely on quantitative models to manage certain accounting, risk management, capital planning, and treasury functions.
We use quantitative models to help manage certain aspects of our business and to assist with certain business decisions, including, but not limited to, estimating CECL, measuring the fair value of financial instruments when reliable market prices are unavailable, estimating the effects of changing interest rates and other market measures on our financial condition and results of operations, managing risk, and for capital planning purposes (including during the capital stress testing process). Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships. Thus, our modeling methodologies rely on many assumptions, historical analyses, correlations, and available data. These assumptions provide only reasonable, not absolute, estimates, particularly in times of market distress when historical correlations on which we rely may no longer be relevant, such as has been experienced as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, as businesses and markets evolve, our measurements may not accurately reflect this evolution. Models can also produce inadequate estimates due to errors in computer code, use of unsuitable data during development or input into the model during model use, or the use of a model for a purpose outside the scope of the model’s design.
If our models fail to produce reliable results on an ongoing basis, we may not make appropriate risk management, capital planning, or other business or financial decisions. Furthermore, strategies that we employ to manage and govern the risks associated with our use of models may not be effective or fully reliable, and as a result, we may realize losses or other lapses.
We have an enterprise-wide model risk management program designed to accurately identify, measure, report, monitor, and manage model risk. The management of model risk includes independent validation and model governance, establishing and monitoring model control standards and model risk metrics, and completeness and accuracy of the inventory of models.
Banking regulators continue to focus on the models used by banks and bank holding companies in their businesses. The failure or inadequacy of a model may result in increased regulatory scrutiny on us or may result in an enforcement action or proceeding against us by one of our regulators.
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ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS As a financial services organization, we are subject to a number of risks inherent in our transactions and present in the business decisions we make. Described below are the primary risks and uncertainties that if realized could have a material and adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations or cash flows, and our access to liquidity. The risks and uncertainties described below are not the only risks we face. Our ERM program incorporates risk management throughout our organization to identify, understand, and manage the risks presented by our business activities. Our ERM program identifies Key’s major risk categories as: credit risk, compliance risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, market risk, reputation risk, strategic risk, and model risk. These risk factors, and other risks we may face, are discussed in more detail in other sections of this report. I. Credit Risk We have concentrated credit exposure in commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, and commercial leases. As of December 31, 2017, approximately 73% of our loan portfolio consisted of commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, including commercial mortgage and construction loans, and commercial leases. These types of loans are typically larger than residential real estate loans and consumer loans, and have a different risk profile. The deterioration of a larger loan or a group of these loans could cause a significant increase in nonperforming loans, which could result in net loss of earnings from these loans, an increase in the provision for loan and lease losses, and an increase in loan charge-offs. Should the fundamentals of the commercial real estate market deteriorate, our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected. The strong recovery in commercial real estate over the past several years, in particular the multifamily property sector, has contributed to a surge in investment and development activity. As a result, property values are elevated and oversupply is a concern in certain markets. Substantial deterioration in property market fundamentals could have an impact on our portfolio, with a large portion of our clients active in real estate and specifically multifamily real estate. A correction in the real estate markets could impact the ability of borrowers to make debt service payments on loans. A portion of our commercial real estate loans are construction loans. Typically these properties are not fully leased at loan origination; the borrower may require additional leasing through the life of the loan to provide cash flow to support debt service payments. If property market fundamentals deteriorate sharply, the execution of new leases could slow, compromising the borrower’s ability to cover the debt service payments. We are subject to the risk of defaults by our loan counterparties and clients. Many of our routine transactions expose us to credit risk in the event of default of our counterparty or client. Our credit risk may be exacerbated when the collateral held cannot be realized upon or is liquidated at prices insufficient to recover the full amount of the loan or derivative exposure due to us. In deciding whether to extend credit or enter into other transactions, we may rely on information furnished by or on behalf of counterparties and clients, including financial statements, credit reports and other information. We may also rely on representations of those counterparties, clients, or other third parties as to the accuracy and completeness of that information. The inaccuracy of that information or those representations affects our ability to accurately evaluate the default risk of a counterparty or client. Given the Dodd-Frank legislative mandate to centrally clear eligible derivative contracts, we rely on central clearing counterparties to remain open and operationally viable at all times. The possibility of a large member failure or a cybersecurity breach could result in a disruption in this market. Various factors may cause our allowance for loan and lease losses to increase. We maintain an ALLL (a reserve established through a provision for loan and lease losses charged to expense) that represents our estimate of losses based on our evaluation of risks within our existing portfolio of loans. The level of the allowance reflects our ongoing evaluation of industry concentrations; specific credit risks; loan and lease loss experience; current loan portfolio quality; present economic, political and regulatory conditions; and incurred losses inherent in the current loan portfolio. The determination of the appropriate level of the ALLL inherently involves a degree of subjectivity and requires that we make significant estimates of current credit risks and current trends, all of which may undergo material changes. Changes in economic conditions affecting borrowers, the softening of certain economic indicators that we are more susceptible to, such as unemployment and real estate values, new information regarding existing loans, identification of additional problem loans and other factors, both within and outside of our control, may indicate the need for an increase in the ALLL. Bank regulatory agencies periodically review our ALLL and, based on judgments that can differ somewhat from those of our own management, may necessitate an increase in the provision for loan and lease losses or the recognition of further loan charge-offs. In addition, if charge-offs outpace the estimate in our current methodology used to establish our ALLL (i.e., if the loan and lease allowance is inadequate), we will need additional loan and lease loss provisions to increase the ALLL, which would decrease our net income and capital. Declining asset prices could adversely affect us. During the Great Recession, the volatility and disruption that the capital and credit markets experienced reached extreme levels. This severe market disruption led to the failure of several substantial financial institutions, which caused the credit markets to constrain and also caused a widespread liquidation of assets. These asset sales, along with asset sales by other leveraged investors, including some hedge funds, rapidly drove down prices and valuations across a wide variety of traded asset classes. Asset price deterioration has a negative effect on the valuation of certain of the asset categories represented on our balance sheet, and reduces our ability to sell assets at prices we deem acceptable. Although the recovery has been in place for some time, a new recession would likely reverse recent positive trends in asset prices. II. Compliance Risk We are subject to extensive government regulation and supervision. As a financial services institution, we are subject to extensive federal and state regulation and supervision, which previously increased in recent years due to the implementation of the Dodd-Frank Act and other financial reform initiatives. Banking regulations are primarily intended to protect depositors’ funds, the DIF, consumers, taxpayers, and the banking system as a whole, not our debtholders or shareholders. These regulations increase our costs and affect our lending practices, capital structure, investment practices, dividend policy, ability to repurchase our common shares, and growth, among other things. KeyBank has faced scrutiny from our bank supervisors in the examination process and aggressive enforcement of regulations at the federal and state levels, particularly due to KeyBank’s and KeyCorp’s status as covered institutions under the Dodd-Frank Act’s heightened prudential standards and regulations, including its provisions designed to protect consumers from financial abuse. Although many parts of the Dodd-Frank Act are now in effect, other parts continue to be implemented, as well as other significant regulations which have been enacted with upcoming effective dates. As a result, some uncertainty remains as to the aggregate impact upon Key of the Dodd-Frank Act and other significant regulations. Changes to existing statutes, regulations or regulatory policies or their interpretation or implementation could affect us in substantial and unpredictable ways. These changes may subject us to additional costs and increase our litigation risk should we fail to appropriately comply. Such changes may also limit the types of financial services and products we may offer, affect the investments we make, and change the manner in which we operate. Additionally, federal banking law grants substantial enforcement powers to federal banking regulators. This enforcement authority includes, among other things, the ability to assess civil money penalties, to issue cease and desist or removal orders and to initiate injunctive actions against banking organizations and affiliated parties. These enforcement actions may be initiated for violations of laws and regulations, for practices determined to be unsafe or unsound, or for practices or acts that are determined to be unfair, deceptive, or abusive. For more information, see “Supervision and Regulation” in Item 1 of this report. Changes in accounting policies, standards, and interpretations could materially affect how we report our financial condition and results of operations. The FASB periodically changes the financial accounting and reporting standards governing the preparation of Key’s financial statements. Additionally, those bodies that establish and/or interpret the financial accounting and reporting standards (such as the FASB, SEC, and banking regulators) may change prior interpretations or positions on how these standards should be applied. These changes can be difficult to predict and can materially affect how Key records and reports its financial condition and results of operations. In some cases, Key could be required to retroactively apply a new or revised standard, resulting in changes to previously reported financial results. III. Operational Risk We are subject to a variety of operational risks. In addition to the other risks discussed in this section, we are subject to operational risk, which represents the risk of loss resulting from human error, inadequate or failed internal processes, internal controls, systems, and external events. Operational risk includes the risk of fraud by employees, clerical and record-keeping errors, nonperformance by vendors, threats to cybersecurity, and computer/telecommunications malfunctions. Operational risk also encompasses compliance and legal risk, which is the risk of loss from violations of, or noncompliance with, laws, rules, regulations, prescribed practices or ethical standards, as well as the risk of our noncompliance with contractual and other obligations. We are also exposed to operational risk through our outsourcing arrangements, and the effect that changes in circumstances or capabilities of our outsourcing vendors can have on our ability to continue to perform operational functions necessary to our business, such as certain loan processing functions. For example, breakdowns or failures of our vendors’ systems or employees could be a source of operational risk to us. Resulting losses from operational risk could take the form of explicit charges, increased operational costs, harm to our reputation, inability to secure insurance, litigation, regulatory intervention or sanctions or foregone business opportunities. Our information systems may experience an interruption or breach in security. We rely heavily on communications, information systems (both internal and provided by third parties) and the internet to conduct our business. Our business is dependent on our ability to process and monitor large numbers of daily transactions in compliance with legal, regulatory, and internal standards and specifications. In addition, a significant portion of our operations relies heavily on the secure processing, storage and transmission of personal and confidential information, such as the personal information of our customers and clients. These risks may increase in the future as we continue to increase mobile payments and other internet-based product offerings and expand our internal usage of web-based products and applications. In the event of a failure, interruption, or breach of our information systems, we may be unable to avoid impact to our customers. Such a failure, interruption, or breach could result in legal liability, remediation costs, regulatory action, or reputational harm. Other U.S. financial service institutions and companies have reported breaches, some severe, in the security of their websites or other systems and several financial institutions, including Key, experienced significant distributed denial-of-service attacks, some of which involved sophisticated and targeted attacks intended to disable or degrade service, or sabotage systems. Other potential attacks have attempted to obtain unauthorized access to confidential information, hold for ransom, or alter or destroy data, often through the introduction of computer viruses or malware, phishing, cyberattacks, and other means. To date, none of these efforts has had a material adverse effect on our business or operations. Such security attacks can originate from a wide variety of sources, including persons who are involved with organized crime or who may be linked to terrorist organizations or hostile foreign governments. Those same parties may also attempt to fraudulently induce employees, customers, or other users of our systems to disclose sensitive information in order to gain access to our data or that of our customers or clients. Our security systems may not be able to protect our information systems from similar attacks due to the rapid evolution and creation of sophisticated cyberattacks. We are also subject to the risk that our employees may intercept and transmit unauthorized confidential or proprietary information. An interception, misuse or mishandling of personal, confidential, or proprietary information being sent to or received from a customer or third party could result in legal liability, remediation costs, regulatory action, and reputational harm. We rely on third parties to perform significant operational services for us. Third parties perform significant operational services on our behalf. These third parties are subject to similar risks as Key relating to cybersecurity, breakdowns or failures of their own systems or employees. One or more of these third parties may experience a cybersecurity event or operational disruption and, if any such event does occur, it may not be adequately addressed, either operationally or financially, by such third party. Certain of these third parties may have limited indemnification obligations or may not have the financial capacity to satisfy their indemnification obligations. Financial or operational difficulties of a third party could also impair our operations if those difficulties interfere with such third party’s ability to serve us. Additionally, some of our outsourcing arrangements are located overseas and, therefore, are subject to risks unique to the regions in which they operate. If a critical third party is unable to meet our needs in a timely manner or if the services or products provided by such third party are terminated or otherwise delayed and if we are not able to develop alternative sources for these services and products quickly and cost-effectively, it could have a material adverse effect on our business. Additionally, regulatory guidance adopted by federal banking regulators related to how banks select, engage and manage their third parties affects the circumstances and conditions under which we work with third parties and the cost of managing such relationships. We are subject to claims and litigation, which could result in significant financial liability and/or reputational risk. From time to time, customers, vendors, or other parties may make claims and take legal action against us. We maintain reserves for certain claims when deemed appropriate based upon our assessment that a loss is probable, estimable, and consistent with applicable accounting guidance. At any given time we have a variety of legal actions asserted against us in various stages of litigation. Resolution of a legal action can often take years. Whether any particular claims and legal actions are founded or unfounded, if such claims and legal actions are not resolved in our favor, they may result in significant financial liability and adversely affect how the market perceives us and our products and services as well as impact customer demand for those products and services. We are also involved, from time to time, in other reviews, investigations, and proceedings (both formal and informal) by governmental and self-regulatory agencies regarding our business, including, among other things, accounting and operational matters, certain of which may result in adverse judgments, settlements, fines, penalties, injunctions, or other relief. The number and risk of these investigations and proceedings has increased in recent years with regard to many firms in the financial services industry due to legal changes to the consumer protection laws provided for by the Dodd-Frank Act and the creation of the CFPB. There have also been a number of highly publicized legal claims against financial institutions involving fraud or misconduct by employees, and we run the risk that employee misconduct could occur. It is not always possible to deter or prevent employee misconduct, and the precautions we take to prevent and detect this activity may not be effective in all cases. Our controls and procedures may fail or be circumvented, and our methods of reducing risk exposure may not be effective. We regularly review and update our internal controls, disclosure controls and procedures, and corporate governance policies and procedures. We also maintain an ERM program designed to identify, measure, monitor, report, and analyze our risks. Any system of controls and any system to reduce risk exposure, however well designed and operated, is based in part on certain assumptions and can provide only reasonable, not absolute, assurances that the objectives of the system are met. Additionally, instruments, systems, and strategies used to hedge or otherwise manage exposure to various types of market compliance, credit, liquidity, operational, and business risks and enterprise-wide risk could be less effective than anticipated. As a result, we may not be able to effectively mitigate our risk exposures in particular market environments or against particular types of risk. Climate change, severe weather, natural disasters, acts of war or terrorism, and other external events could significantly impact our business. Natural disasters, including severe weather events of increasing strength and frequency due to climate change, acts of war or terrorism, and other adverse external events could have a significant impact on our ability to conduct business or upon third parties who perform operational services for us or our customers. Such events could affect the stability of our deposit base, impair the ability of borrowers to repay outstanding loans, impair the value of collateral securing loans, cause significant property damage, result in lost revenue, or cause us to incur additional expenses. IV. Liquidity Risk Capital and liquidity requirements imposed by the Dodd-Frank Act require banks and BHCs to maintain more and higher quality capital and more and higher quality liquid assets than has historically been the case. Evolving capital standards resulting from the Dodd-Frank Act and the Regulatory Capital Rules adopted by our regulators have had and will continue to have a significant impact on banks and BHCs, including Key. For a detailed explanation of the capital and liquidity rules that became effective for us on a phased-in basis on January 1, 2015, see the section titled “Regulatory capital requirements” under the heading “Supervision and Regulation” in Item 1 of this report. The Federal Reserve’s capital standards require Key to maintain more and higher quality capital and could limit our business activities (including lending) and our ability to expand organically or through acquisitions. They could also result in our taking steps to increase our capital that may be dilutive to shareholders or limit our ability to pay dividends or otherwise return capital to shareholders. In addition, the new liquidity standards required us to increase our holdings of higher-quality liquid assets, may require us to change our future mix of investment alternatives, and may impact future business relationships with certain customers. Additionally, support of liquidity standards may be satisfied through the use of term wholesale borrowings, which tend to have a higher cost than that of traditional core deposits. Further, the Federal Reserve requires BHCs to obtain approval before making a “capital distribution,” such as paying or increasing dividends, implementing common stock repurchase programs, or redeeming or repurchasing capital instruments. The Federal Reserve has detailed the processes that BHCs should maintain to ensure they hold adequate capital under severely adverse conditions and have ready access to funding before engaging in any capital activities. These rules could limit Key’s ability to make distributions, including paying out dividends or buying back shares. For more information, see the section titled “Regulatory capital requirements” under the heading “Supervision and Regulation” in Item 1 of this report. Federal agencies may take actions that disrupt the stability of the U.S. financial system. Since 2008, the federal government has taken unprecedented steps to provide stability to and confidence in the financial markets. For example, the Federal Reserve maintains a variety of stimulus policy measures designed to maintain a low interest rate environment. In light of recent moderate improvements in the U.S. economy, federal agencies may no longer support such initiatives. The discontinuation of such initiatives may have unanticipated or unintended impacts, perhaps severe, on the financial markets. These effects could include higher debt yields, a flatter or steeper slope to the yield curve, or unanticipated changes to quality spread premiums that may not follow historical relationships or patterns as the Federal Reserve gradually reverses quantitative easing and reduces the size of its balance sheet. In addition, new initiatives or legislation may not be implemented, or, if implemented, may not be adequate to counter any negative effects of discontinuing programs or, in the event of an economic downturn, to support and stabilize the economy. We rely on dividends by our subsidiaries for most of our funds. We are a legal entity separate and distinct from our subsidiaries. With the exception of cash that we may raise from debt and equity issuances, we receive substantially all of our funding from dividends by our subsidiaries. Dividends by our subsidiaries are the principal source of funds for the dividends we pay on our common and preferred stock and interest and principal payments on our debt. Federal banking law and regulations limit the amount of dividends that KeyBank (KeyCorp’s largest subsidiary) can pay. For further information on the regulatory restrictions on the payment of dividends by KeyBank, see “Supervision and Regulation” in Item 1 of this report. In the event KeyBank is unable to pay dividends to us, we may not be able to service debt, pay obligations, or pay dividends on our common or preferred stock. Such a situation could result in Key losing access to alternative wholesale funding sources. In addition, our right to participate in a distribution of assets upon a subsidiary’s liquidation or reorganization is subject to the prior claims of the subsidiary’s creditors. We are subject to liquidity risk, which could negatively affect our funding levels. Market conditions or other events could negatively affect our access to or the cost of funding, affecting our ongoing ability to accommodate liability maturities and deposit withdrawals, meet contractual obligations, or fund asset growth and new business initiatives at a reasonable cost, in a timely manner and without adverse consequences. Although we maintain a liquid asset portfolio and have implemented strategies to maintain sufficient and diverse sources of funding to accommodate planned as well as unanticipated changes in assets, liabilities, and off-balance sheet commitments under various economic conditions (including a reduced level of wholesale funding sources), a substantial, unexpected, or prolonged change in the level or cost of liquidity could have a material adverse effect on us. If the cost effectiveness or the availability of supply in these credit markets is reduced for a prolonged period of time, our funding needs may require us to access funding and manage liquidity by other means. These alternatives may include generating client deposits, securitizing or selling loans, extending the maturity of wholesale borrowings, borrowing under certain secured borrowing arrangements, using relationships developed with a variety of fixed income investors, and further managing loan growth and investment opportunities. These alternative means of funding may result in an increase to the overall cost of funds and may not be available under stressed conditions, which would cause us to liquidate a portion of our liquid asset portfolio to meet any funding needs. Our credit ratings affect our liquidity position. The rating agencies regularly evaluate the securities issued by KeyCorp and KeyBank, and their ratings of our long-term debt and other securities are based on a number of factors, including our financial strength, ability to generate earnings, and other factors. Some of these factors are not entirely within our control, such as conditions affecting the financial services industry and the economy and changes in rating methodologies. Changes in any of these factors could impact our ability to maintain our current credit ratings. A rating downgrade of the securities of KeyCorp or KeyBank could adversely affect our access to liquidity and could significantly increase our cost of funds, trigger additional collateral or funding requirements, and decrease the number of investors and counterparties willing to lend to us, reducing our ability to generate income. V. Market Risk A reversal of the U.S. economic recovery and a return to volatile or recessionary conditions in the U.S. or abroad could negatively affect our business or our access to capital markets. A worsening of economic and market conditions, downside shocks, or a return to recessionary economic conditions could result in adverse effects on Key and others in the financial services industry. The prolonged low-interest rate environment, despite a generally improving economy, has presented a challenge for the industry, including Key, and affects business and financial performance. In particular, we could face some of the following risks, and other unforeseeable risks, in connection with a downturn in the economic and market environment or in the face of downside shocks or a recession, whether in the United States or internationally: • A loss of confidence in the financial services industry and the debt and equity markets by investors, placing pressure on the price of Key’s common shares or decreasing the credit or liquidity available to Key; • A decrease in consumer and business confidence levels generally, decreasing credit usage and investment or increasing delinquencies and defaults; • A decrease in household or corporate incomes, reducing demand for Key’s products and services; • A decrease in the value of collateral securing loans to Key’s borrowers or a decrease in the quality of Key’s loan portfolio, increasing loan charge-offs and reducing Key’s net income; • A decrease in our ability to liquidate positions at acceptable market prices; • The extended continuation of the current low-interest rate environment, continuing or increasing downward pressure to our net interest income; • An increase in competition or consolidation in the financial services industry; • Increased concern over and scrutiny of the capital and liquidity levels of financial institutions generally, and those of our transaction counterparties specifically; • A decrease in confidence in the creditworthiness of the United States or other governments whose securities we hold; and • An increase in limitations on or the regulation of financial services companies like Key. We are subject to interest rate risk, which could adversely affect net interest income. Our earnings are largely dependent upon our net interest income. Net interest income is the difference between interest income earned on interest-earning assets such as loans and securities and interest expense paid on interest-bearing liabilities such as deposits and borrowed funds. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors that are beyond our control, including general economic conditions, the competitive environment within our markets, consumer preferences for specific loan and deposit products, and policies of various governmental and regulatory agencies, in particular, the Federal Reserve. Changes in monetary policy, including changes in interest rate controls being applied by the Federal Reserve, could influence the amount of interest we receive on loans and securities, the amount of interest we pay on deposits and borrowings, our ability to originate loans and obtain deposits, and the fair value of our financial assets and liabilities. As the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates and begins to reverse quantitative easing, the behavior of national money market rate indices, the correlation of consumer deposit rates to financial market interest rates, and the setting of LIBOR rates may not follow historical relationships, which could influence net interest income and net interest margin. Moreover, if the interest we pay on deposits and other borrowings increases at a faster rate than the interest we receive on loans and other investments, net interest income, and therefore our earnings, would be adversely affected. Conversely, earnings could also be adversely affected if the interest we receive on loans and other investments falls more quickly than the interest we pay on deposits and other borrowings. Our profitability depends upon economic conditions in the geographic regions where we have significant operations and on certain market segments in which we conduct significant business. We have concentrations of loans and other business activities in geographic regions where our bank branches are located - Washington; Oregon/Alaska; Rocky Mountains; Indiana/Northwest Ohio/Michigan; Central/Southwest Ohio; East Ohio/Western Pennsylvania; Atlantic; Western New York; Eastern New York; and New England - and additional exposure to geographic regions outside of our branch footprint. The moderate U.S. economic recovery in the various regions where we operate has been uneven, and continued improvement in the overall U.S. economy may not result in similar improvement, or any improvement at all, in the economy of any particular geographic region. Adverse conditions in a geographic region such as inflation, unemployment, recession, natural disasters, or other factors beyond our control could impact the ability of borrowers in these regions to repay their loans, decrease the value of collateral securing loans made in these regions, or affect the ability of our customers in these regions to continue conducting business with us. Additionally, a significant portion of our business activities are concentrated within the real estate and healthcare market segments. The profitability of some of these market segments depends upon the health of the overall economy, seasonality, the impact of regulation, and other factors that are beyond our control and may be beyond the control of our customers in these market segments. An economic downturn in one or more geographic regions where we conduct our business, or any significant or prolonged impact on the profitability of one or more of the market segments with which we conduct significant business activity, could adversely affect the demand for our products and services, the ability of our customers to repay loans, the value of the collateral securing loans, and the stability of our deposit funding sources. The soundness of other financial institutions could adversely affect us. Our ability to engage in routine funding transactions could be adversely affected by the actions and commercial soundness of other financial institutions. We have exposure to many different industries and counterparties in the financial services industries, and we routinely execute transactions with such counterparties, including brokers and dealers, commercial banks, investment banks, mutual and hedge funds, and other institutional clients. Financial services institutions are interrelated as a result of trading, clearing, counterparty, or other relationships. Defaults by one or more financial services institutions have led to, and may cause, market-wide liquidity problems and losses. Many of our transactions with other financial institutions expose us to credit risk in the event of default of a counterparty or client. In addition, our credit risk may be affected when the collateral held by us cannot be realized or is liquidated at prices not sufficient to recover the full amount of the loan or derivatives exposure due us. Tax reform is anticipated to have an impact on our tax liabilities, the tax liabilities of our clients, and how we do business. On December 22, 2017, the TCJ Act was signed into law. This comprehensive tax legislation provides for significant changes to the U.S. Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended, that impact corporate taxation requirements, such as the reduction in the federal corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21% effective January 1, 2018. The TCJ Act retains the low-income housing and research and development credits and repeals the corporate alternative minimum tax. Other relevant corporate changes include earlier recognition of certain revenue; accelerating expensing of investments in tangible property, including leasing assets; and limiting several deductions such as FDIC premiums, certain executive compensation, and meals and entertainment expense. Key is currently assessing the overall impact of the TCJ Act on the future expected federal income tax obligations of both Key and our clients. We expect that Key’s future federal income tax liabilities will overall benefit from the provisions in the TCJ Act. However, we also expect that certain aspects of our business may change over time; both as to the investments we may make as a result of tax reform and in response to how the provisions in the TCJ Act may affect our customers and influence how we offer and deliver our products and services in the future. Refer to Note 14, Income Taxes, for information on the impact of the TCJ Act to our 2017 financial results. VI. Reputation Risk Damage to our reputation could significantly harm our businesses. Our ability to attract and retain customers, clients, investors, and highly-skilled management and employees is affected by our reputation. Public perception of the financial services industry has declined as a result of the Great Recession. We face increased public and regulatory scrutiny resulting from the financial crisis and economic downturn. Significant harm to our reputation can also arise from other sources, including employee misconduct, actual or perceived unethical behavior, litigation or regulatory outcomes, failing to deliver minimum or required standards of service and quality, compliance failures, disclosure of confidential information, significant or numerous failures, interruptions or breaches of our information systems, failure to meet external commitments and goals, and the activities of our clients, customers and counterparties, including vendors. Actions by the financial services industry generally or by certain members or individuals in the industry may have a significant adverse effect on our reputation. We could also suffer significant reputational harm if we fail to properly identify and manage potential conflicts of interest. Management of potential conflicts of interests is complex as we expand our business activities through more numerous transactions, obligations and interests with and among our clients. The actual or perceived failure to adequately address conflicts of interest could affect the willingness of clients to deal with us, which could adversely affect our businesses. VII. Strategic Risk We may not realize the expected benefits of our strategic initiatives. Our ability to compete depends on a number of factors, including among others our ability to develop and successfully execute our strategic plans and initiatives. Our strategic priorities include growing profitably and maintaining financial strength; effectively managing risk and reward; engaging a high-performing, talented, and diverse workforce; embracing the changes required by our clients and the marketplace; and acquiring and expanding targeted client relationships. Our inability to execute on or achieve the anticipated outcomes of our strategic priorities may affect how the market perceives us and could impede our growth and profitability. We operate in a highly competitive industry. We face substantial competition in all areas of our operations from a variety of competitors, some of which are larger and may have more financial resources than us. Our competitors primarily include national and super-regional banks as well as smaller community banks within the various geographic regions in which we operate. We also face competition from many other types of financial institutions, including, without limitation, savings associations, credit unions, mortgage banking companies, finance companies, mutual funds, insurance companies, investment management firms, investment banking firms, broker-dealers and other local, regional, national, and global financial services firms. In addition, technology has lowered barriers to entry and made it possible for nonbanks to offer products and services traditionally provided by banks. We expect the competitive landscape of the financial services industry to become even more intense as a result of legislative, regulatory, structural, and technological changes. Our ability to compete successfully depends on a number of factors, including: our ability to develop and execute strategic plans and initiatives; our ability to develop, maintain, and build long-term customer relationships based on quality service and competitive prices; our ability to develop competitive products and technologies demanded by our customers, while maintaining our high ethical standards and keeping our assets safe and sound; our ability to attract, retain, and develop a highly competent employee workforce; and industry and general economic trends. Increased competition in the financial services industry, or our failure to perform in any of these areas, could significantly weaken our competitive position, which could adversely affect our growth and profitability. Maintaining or increasing our market share depends upon our ability to adapt our products and services to evolving industry standards and consumer preferences, while maintaining competitive prices. The continuous, widespread adoption of new technologies, including internet services and mobile devices (including smartphones and tablets), requires us to evaluate our product and service offerings to ensure they remain competitive. Our success depends, in part, on our ability to adapt our products and services, as well as our distribution of them, to evolving industry standards and consumer preferences. New technologies have altered consumer behavior by allowing consumers to complete transactions such as paying bills or transferring funds directly without the assistance of banks. New products allow consumers to maintain funds in brokerage accounts or mutual funds that would have historically been held as bank deposits. The process of eliminating banks as intermediaries, known as “disintermediation,” could result in the loss of fee income, as well as the loss of customer deposits and related income generated from those deposits. The increasing pressure from our competitors, both bank and nonbank, to keep pace and adopt new technologies and products and services requires us to incur substantial expense. We may be unsuccessful in developing or introducing new products and services, modifying our existing products and services, adapting to changing consumer preferences and spending and saving habits, achieving market acceptance or regulatory approval, sufficiently developing or maintaining a loyal customer base, or offering products and services at prices lower than the prices offered by our competitors. These risks may affect our ability to achieve growth in our market share and could reduce both our revenue streams from certain products and services and our revenues from our net interest income. We may not be able to attract and retain skilled people. Our success depends, in large part, on our ability to attract, retain, motivate, and develop key people. Competition for the best people in most of our business activities is ongoing and can be intense, and we may not be able to retain or hire the people we want or need to serve our customers. To attract and retain qualified employees, we must compensate these employees at market levels. Typically, those levels have caused employee compensation to be our greatest expense. Various restrictions on compensation of certain executive officers were imposed under the Dodd-Frank Act and other legislation and regulations. In addition, our incentive compensation structure is subject to review by our regulators, who may identify deficiencies in the structure of or issue additional guidance on our compensation practices, causing us to make changes that may affect our ability to offer competitive compensation to these individuals or that place us at a disadvantage to non-financial service competitors. Our ability to attract and retain talented employees may be affected by these developments, or any new executive compensation limits and regulations. Acquisitions or strategic partnerships may disrupt our business and dilute shareholder value. Acquiring other banks, bank branches, or other businesses involves various risks commonly associated with acquisitions or partnerships, including exposure to unknown or contingent liabilities of the acquired company; diversion of our management’s time and attention; significant integration risk with respect to employees, accounting systems, and technology platforms; increased regulatory scrutiny; and, the possible loss of key employees and customers of the acquired company. We regularly evaluate merger and acquisition and strategic partnership opportunities and conduct due diligence activities related to possible transactions. As a result, mergers or acquisitions involving cash, debt or equity securities may occur at any time. Acquisitions may involve the payment of a premium over book and market values. Therefore, some dilution of our tangible book value and net income per common share could occur in connection with any future transaction. We may fail to realize the anticipated benefits of the merger with First Niagara. KeyCorp consummated its merger with First Niagara on August 1, 2016. The success of the merger, including anticipated benefits and cost savings, will depend on, among other things, our ability to combine the businesses of KeyCorp and First Niagara in a manner that permits growth opportunities, including, among other things, enhanced revenues and revenue synergies, an expanded market reach and operating efficiencies, and that does not materially disrupt the existing customer relationships of KeyCorp or First Niagara nor result in decreased revenues due to loss of customers. If we are not able to successfully achieve these objectives, the anticipated benefits of the merger may not be realized fully or at all or may take longer to realize than expected. Failure to achieve these anticipated benefits could result in increased costs, decreases in the amount of expected revenues and diversion of management’s time and energy and could have an adverse effect on the surviving corporation’s business, financial condition, operating results, and prospects. In addition, it is possible that the integration process could result in the disruption of our ongoing businesses or cause inconsistencies in standards, controls, procedures, and policies that adversely affect our ability to maintain relationships with customers and employees or to achieve the anticipated benefits of the merger. VIII. Model Risk We rely on quantitative models to manage certain accounting, risk management, and capital planning functions. We use quantitative models to help manage certain aspects of our business and to assist with certain business decisions, including estimating incurred loan losses, measuring the fair value of financial instruments when reliable market prices are unavailable, estimating the effects of changing interest rates and other market measures on our financial condition and results of operations, managing risk, and for capital planning purposes (including during the CCAR capital planning process). Our modeling methodologies rely on many assumptions, historical analyses and correlations. These assumptions may be incorrect, particularly in times of market distress, and the historical correlations on which we rely may no longer be relevant. Additionally, as businesses and markets evolve, our measurements may not accurately reflect this evolution. Even if the underlying assumptions and historical correlations used in our models are adequate, our models may be deficient due to errors in computer code, bad data, misuse of data, or the use of a model for a purpose outside the scope of the model’s design. As a result, our models may not capture or fully express the risks we face, may suggest that we have sufficient capitalization when we do not, or may lead us to misjudge the business and economic environment in which we will operate. If our models fail to produce reliable results on an ongoing basis, we may not make appropriate risk management, capital planning, or other business or financial decisions. Furthermore, strategies that we employ to manage and govern the risks associated with our use of models may not be effective or fully reliable, and as a result, we may realize losses or other lapses. Banking regulators continue to focus on the models used by banks and bank holding companies in their businesses. The failure or inadequacy of a model may result in increased regulatory scrutiny on us or may result in an enforcement action or proceeding against us by one of our regulators. ITEM 1B.
Current §1A text (2021)
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ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS
As a financial services organization, we are subject to a number of risks inherent in our transactions and present in the business decisions we make. Described below are the material risks and uncertainties that if realized could have a material and adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations or cash flows, and our access to liquidity. The risks and uncertainties described below are not the only risks we face. Disclosures of risks should not be interpreted to imply that the risks have not already materialized.
Our ERM program incorporates risk management throughout our organization to identify, understand, and manage the risks presented by our business activities. Our ERM program identifies Key’s major risk categories as: credit risk, compliance risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, market risk, reputation risk, strategic risk, and model risk. These risk factors, and other risks we may face, are discussed in more detail in other sections of this report.
I. Credit Risk
We have concentrated credit exposure in commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, and commercial leases.
As of December 31, 2021, approximately 70% of our loan portfolio consisted of commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, including commercial mortgage and construction loans, and commercial leases. These types of loans are typically larger than single family residential real estate loans and other types of consumer loans and have a different risk profile. The deterioration of a larger loan or a group of loans in this category could cause an increase in nonperforming loans, which could result in lower earnings from these loans, additional provision for loan and lease losses, and ultimately an increase in loan losses.
Should the fundamentals of the commercial real estate market deteriorate, our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected.
While the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the commercial real estate market, property values have largely resumed slow appreciation, and in the case of multifamily and industrial now exceed pre-pandemic levels. Development and construction continue, but at muted levels, and deliveries of additional units into the market have been supported. Oversupply of multifamily housing is a concern in certain urban and gateway markets. However, our exposures in those markets are limited. The most severely impacted commercial real estate segments have been in hospitality, office, and retail. However, monthly collections have improved. Key’s non-owner occupied office and retail exposures are 14% of our total commercial real estate exposure. Substantial deterioration in property market fundamentals could negatively impact our portfolio, with a large portion of our clients active in real estate but in the higher performing multifamily space. A correction in the real estate markets could impact the ability of borrowers to make debt service payments on loans or to refinance the loans at maturity. A relatively small portion of our commercial real estate loans are construction loans. New construction and value-add or rehabilitation construction projects are not fully leased at loan origination. These properties typically require additional leasing through the life of the loan to provide cash flow to support debt service payments. If property market fundamentals deteriorate sharply, performance under existing leases could deteriorate and the execution of new leases could slow, compromising the borrower’s ability to cover debt service payments.
We are subject to the risk of defaults by our loan clients and counterparties.
Many of our routine transactions expose us to credit risk in the event of default of our counterparty or client. Our credit risk may be exacerbated when the collateral held cannot be realized upon or is liquidated at prices insufficient to recover the full amount of the loan or derivative exposure due to us. In deciding whether to extend credit or enter into other transactions, we may rely on information furnished by or on behalf of counterparties and clients, including financial statements, credit reports and other information. We may also rely on representations of those counterparties, clients, or other third parties as to the accuracy and completeness of that information. The inaccuracy of that information or those representations affects our ability to accurately evaluate the default risk of a counterparty or client. Given the Dodd-Frank legislative mandate to centrally clear eligible derivative contracts, we rely on central clearing counterparties to remain open and operationally viable at all times. The possibility of a large member failure or a cybersecurity breach could result in a counterparty or client disruption.
Various factors may cause our allowance for loan and lease losses to increase.
We maintain an ALLL (a reserve established through a provision for loan and lease losses charged to expense) that represents our estimate of losses based on our evaluation of risks within our existing portfolio of loans. The level of the allowance at December 31, 2021 represents management’s estimate of expected credit losses over the contractual life of our existing loan portfolio. The determination of the appropriate level of the ALLL inherently involves a degree of subjectivity and requires that we make significant estimates of current credit risks and current trends and reasonable and supportable forecasts of future economic conditions, all of which may undergo frequent and material changes. Changes in economic conditions affecting borrowers, the softening of certain macroeconomic variables that we are more susceptible to, such as GDP, unemployment, corporate bond rates, household income, 30-year mortgage rates and real estate values, along with updated information regarding existing loans, identification of additional problem loans and other factors, both within and outside of our control, may indicate the need for an increase in the ALLL.
Declining asset prices could adversely affect us.
During the Great Recession, the volatility and disruption that the capital and credit markets experienced reached extreme levels. This severe market disruption led to the failure of several substantial financial institutions, which caused the credit markets to constrict and caused a widespread liquidation of assets. These asset sales, along with asset sales by other leveraged investors, including some hedge funds, rapidly drove down prices and valuations across a wide variety of traded asset classes. Asset price deterioration has a negative effect on the valuation of certain of the asset categories represented on our balance sheet and reduces our ability to sell assets at prices we deem acceptable.
The most recent recession, resulting from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, does not appear to have had significant lasting impacts on collateral value. However, there are still risks to the current recovery that could reverse recent stable trends in asset prices.
These risks include:
•A correction in equity or housing markets;
•Another surge in COVID-19 cases leading to a decrease in economic activity;
•Further supply chain issues such as closed factories and disrupted port activity; and
•Labor-supply constraints could continue longer than anticipated, leading to slowing job growth and boosting wages along with inflation (wage-price spiral).
The continued impact of the COVID-19 global pandemic could result in a deterioration of asset quality and an increase in credit losses.
The global pandemic shut down large portions of the U.S. economy and has negatively impacted many of our customers. As a result, many businesses applied for payment deferrals and loan modifications. As of December 31, 2021, we have an immaterial amount of loans with an active COVID-19 deferral status. As of December 31, 2021, 96% of COVID-19 deferrals that have expired are current. Net downgrades reached their peak in the third quarter of 2020. The portfolio has been in an upgrade cycle ever since with positive net upgrades throughout 2021. As a result, we have decreased our loan loss reserve during 2021 in keeping with our established methodology. The continued impact of the pandemic, supply chain and/or inflationary pressures could result in increasing loan loss reserves.
Labor shortages and constraints in the supply chain could adversely affect our clients’ operations as well as our operations.
Many sectors in the United States and around the world are experiencing a shortage of workers. Many of our commercial clients have been impacted by this shortage along with disruptions and constraints in the supply chain, which could adversely impact their operations.This could lead to reduced cash flow and difficulty in making loan repayments. The financial services industry has also been affected by the shortage of workers, which Key has experienced with respect to certain roles (entry level and technology roles, specifically), as well as increasing wages for entry level and certain professional roles. This may lead to open positions remaining unfilled for longer periods of time or a need to increase wages to attract workers. We have had to recently increase wages in certain positions to attract talent, particularly in entry-level type positions and certain specialty areas.
II. Compliance Risk
We are subject to extensive government regulation, supervision, and tax legislation.
As a financial services institution, we are subject to extensive federal and state regulation, supervision, and tax legislation. Banking regulations are primarily intended to protect depositors’ funds, the DIF, consumers, taxpayers, and the banking system as a whole, not our debtholders or shareholders. These regulations increase our costs and affect our lending practices, capital structure, investment practices, dividend policy, ability to repurchase our common shares, and growth, among other things.
KeyBank and KeyCorp remain covered institutions under the Dodd-Frank Act’s heightened prudential standards and regulations, including its provisions designed to protect consumers from financial abuse. Like similarly situated institutions, Key undergoes routine scrutiny from bank supervisors in the examination process and is subject to enforcement of regulations at the federal and state levels, particularly with respect to consumer banking-related
practices, including fair and responsible banking, fair lending, unfair, deceptive or abusive practices, and the Community Reinvestment Act, as well as compliance with AML, BSA and Office of Foreign Assets Control efforts. Federal rulemaking bodies continue to pass new, or modifications to, significant regulations with upcoming effective dates. There has also been an increase in state legislative activity, particularly in areas such as student lending and privacy. As new privacy-related laws and regulations, such as the California Consumer Privacy Act, are implemented in jurisdictions in which KeyBank operates, the time and resources needed for us to comply with such laws and regulations, as well as our potential liability for noncompliance and reporting obligations in the case of data breaches, may significantly increase. Compliance with these laws and regulations may require us to change our policies, procedures, and technology for information security and segregation of data, which could, among other things, make us more vulnerable to operational failures, and subject us to monetary penalties for breach of such laws and regulations. As a result, some uncertainty remains as to the aggregate impact upon Key of significant regulations.
Changes to existing statutes and regulations, and taxes (including industry-specific taxes and surcharges), or their interpretation or implementation, including any changes resulting from the recent change in U.S. presidential administration, could affect us in substantial and unpredictable ways. Interpretation of consumer banking-related regulations may evolve as the industry and the regulators seek to increase access to banking products and services by consumers. These changes may subject us to additional costs and increase our litigation risk should we fail to appropriately comply. Such changes may also impact consumer behavior, limit the types of financial services and products we may offer, affect the investments we make, and change the manner in which we operate.
Certain federal regulations have been in existence for decades without modification to account for modern banking practices, such as digital delivery of products and services, which can create challenges in execution and in the examination process. Emerging technologies, such as cryptocurrencies, could limit KeyBank’s ability to track the movement of funds. KeyBank’s ability to comply with BSA/AML and other regulations is dependent on its ability to improve detection and reporting capabilities and reduce variation in control processes and oversight accountability.
Additionally, federal banking law grants substantial enforcement powers to federal banking regulators. This enforcement authority includes, among other things, the ability to assess civil money penalties, fines, or restitution, to issue cease and desist or removal orders, and to initiate injunctive actions against banking organizations and affiliated parties. These enforcement actions may be initiated for violations of laws and regulations, for practices determined to be unsafe or unsound, or for practices or acts that are determined to be unfair, deceptive, or abusive. Failure to comply with these and other regulations, and supervisory expectations related thereto, may result in fines, penalties, lawsuits, regulatory sanctions, reputational damage, or restrictions on our business. Moreover, different government administrations may have different regulatory priorities, which may impact the level of regulation of financial institutions and the enforcement environment.
For more information, see “Supervision and Regulation” in Item 1 of this report.
Changes in accounting policies, standards, and interpretations could materially affect how we report our financial condition and results of operations.
The FASB periodically changes the financial accounting and reporting standards governing the preparation of Key’s financial statements. Additionally, those bodies that establish and/or interpret the financial accounting and reporting standards (such as the FASB, SEC, and banking regulators) may change prior interpretations or positions on how these standards should be applied. These changes can be difficult to predict and can materially affect how Key records and reports its financial condition and results of operations. In some cases, Key could be required to retroactively apply a new or revised standard, resulting in changes to previously reported financial results.
III. Operational Risk
We are subject to a variety of operational risks.
In addition to the other risks discussed in this section, we are subject to operational risk, which represents the risk of loss resulting from human error, inadequate or failed internal processes, internal controls, systems, and external events. Operational risk includes the risk of fraud by employees or others outside of Key, clerical and record-keeping errors, nonperformance by vendors, threats from cyber activity, and computer/telecommunications malfunctions. Fraudulent activity has escalated, become more sophisticated, and is ever evolving as there are more
options to access financial services. For instance, in our Form 8-K filed July 16, 2019, we disclosed that on or about July 9, 2019, we discovered fraudulent activity associated with transactions conducted in the third quarter of 2019 by a business customer of KeyBank. This fraudulent activity resulted in $139 million of net loan charge-offs in 2019. Operational risk also encompasses compliance and legal risk, which is the risk of loss from violations of, or noncompliance with, laws, rules, regulations, prescribed practices, or ethical standards, as well as the risk of our noncompliance with contractual and other obligations. We are also exposed to operational risk through our outsourcing arrangements, and the effect that changes in circumstances or capabilities of our outsourcing vendors can have on our ability to continue to perform operational functions necessary to our business, such as certain loan processing functions. For example, breakdowns or failures of our vendors’ systems or employees could be a source of operational risk to us. Resulting losses from operational risk could take the form of explicit charges, increased operational costs (including remediation costs), harm to our reputation, inability to secure insurance, litigation, regulatory intervention or sanctions, or foregone business opportunities.
Our information systems may experience an interruption or breach in security.
We rely heavily on communications, information systems (both internal and provided by third parties), and the internet to conduct our business. Our business is dependent on our ability to process and monitor large numbers of daily transactions in compliance with legal, regulatory, and internal standards and specifications. In addition, a significant portion of our operations relies heavily on the secure processing, storage, and transmission of personal and confidential information, such as the personal information of our customers and clients. These risks may increase in the future as we continue to increase mobile payments and other internet-based product offerings, expand our internal usage of web/cloud-based products and applications, and maintain and develop new relationships with third and fourth party providers. In addition, our ability to extend protections to customers’ information to individual customer devices is limited, especially if the customers willingly provide third parties access to their devices or information.
In the event of a failure, interruption, or breach of our information systems or that of a third party that provides services to us or our customers, we may be unable to avoid impact to our customers. Such a failure, interruption, or breach could result in legal liability, remediation costs, regulatory action, or reputational harm. Other U.S. financial service institutions and companies have reported breaches, some severe, in the security of their websites or other systems and several financial institutions, including Key, have experienced significant distributed denial-of-service attacks, some of which involved sophisticated and targeted attacks intended to disable or degrade service, or sabotage systems. Other attacks have attempted to obtain unauthorized access to confidential information, hold for ransom, or alter or destroy data, often through the introduction of computer viruses or malware, phishing, cyberattacks, credential stuffing, and other means. To the extent that we use third parties to provide services to our clients, we seek to minimize the risk by performing due diligence and monitoring the third party, but we cannot control all of the risks at these third parties. Should an adverse event affecting another company’s systems occur, we may not have indemnification or other protection from the other company sufficient to fully compensate us or otherwise protect us or our clients from the consequences.
In addition, our customers routinely use Key-issued credit and debit cards to pay for transactions conducted with businesses in person and over the internet. If the business’s systems that process or store debit or credit card information experience a security breach, our card holders may experience fraud on their card accounts. We may suffer losses associated with such fraudulent transactions, as well as for other costs, such as replacing impacted cards. Key also provides card transaction processing services to some merchant customers under agreements we have with payment networks such as Mastercard. Under these agreements, we may be responsible for certain losses and penalties if one of our merchant customers suffers a data breach.
We also face risks related to the increasing interdependence and interconnectivity of financial entities and technology systems. A technology failure, cyberattack or other security breach that significantly compromises the systems of one or more financial parties or service providers could have a material impact on counterparties or market participants, including us. Any third-party technology failure, cyberattack, or security breach could adversely affect our ability to effect transactions, service clients, or otherwise operate our business.
To date, none of these efforts have had a material adverse effect on our business or operations or resulted in any material disruption of our operations or material harm to our customers. Such security attacks can originate from a wide variety of sources/malicious actors, including, but not limited to, persons who constitute an insider threat, who are involved with organized crime, or who may be linked to terrorist organizations or hostile foreign governments. Those same parties may also attempt to fraudulently induce employees, customers, or other users of our systems
to disclose sensitive information in order to gain access to our data or that of our customers or clients through social engineering, phishing, and other methods. Our security systems may not be able to protect our information systems from similar attacks due to the rapid evolution and creation of sophisticated cyberattacks. We are also subject to the risk that a malicious actor or our employees may intercept and/or transmit or otherwise misuse unauthorized confidential or proprietary information. An interception, misuse, or mishandling of personal, confidential, or proprietary information being sent to or received from a customer or third party could result in legal liability, remediation costs, regulatory action, and reputational harm. Over the last few years, several large companies have disclosed that they suffered substantial data security breaches, compromising millions of user accounts and credentials. To date, our losses and costs related to these breaches have not been material, but other similar events in the future could have a significant impact on us.
We have incurred and will continue to incur significant expense in an effort to improve the reliability of our systems and their security against external and internal threats. Nonetheless, there remains the risk that one or more adverse events might occur. If one does occur, we might not be able to remediate the event or its consequences timely or adequately. While we do maintain cyber information security and business interruption insurance, losses from a major interruption may exceed our coverage.
We rely on third parties to perform significant operational services for us.
Third parties perform significant operational services on our behalf. Additionally, some of our third parties outsource aspects of their operations to other third parties (commonly referred to as “fourth parties”). These parties are subject to similar risks as Key relating to cybersecurity and breakdowns or failures of their own systems, internal processes and controls, or employees. One or more of these third parties may experience a cybersecurity event or operational disruption and, if any such event does occur, it may not be adequately addressed, either operationally or financially, by such third party. Certain of these third parties may have limited indemnification obligations or may not have the financial capacity to satisfy their indemnification obligations. Financial or operational difficulties of a third party could also impair our operations if those difficulties interfere with such third party’s ability to serve us. Additionally, some of our outsourcing arrangements are located overseas and, therefore, are subject to risks unique to the regions in which they operate. If a critical third party is unable to meet our needs in a timely manner or if the services or products provided by such third party are terminated or otherwise delayed and if we are not able to identify or develop alternative sources for these services and products quickly and cost-effectively, it could have a material adverse effect on our business. Additionally, regulatory guidance adopted by federal banking regulators related to how banks select, engage, and manage their third parties affects the circumstances and conditions under which we work with third parties and the cost of managing such relationships.
We are subject to claims and litigation, which could result in significant financial liability and/or reputational risk.
From time to time, customers, vendors, or other parties may make claims and take legal action against us. We maintain reserves for certain claims when deemed appropriate based upon our assessment that a loss is probable, estimable, and consistent with applicable accounting guidance. At any given time, we have a variety of legal actions asserted against us in various stages of litigation. Resolution of a legal action can often take years. Whether any particular claims and legal actions are founded or unfounded, if such claims and legal actions are not resolved in our favor, they may result in significant financial liability and adversely affect how the market perceives us and our products and services as well as impact customer demand for those products and services.
We are also involved, from time to time, in other reviews, investigations, and proceedings (both formal and informal) by governmental and self-regulatory agencies regarding our business, including, among other things, accounting, compliance, and operational matters, certain of which may result in adverse judgments, settlements, fines, penalties, injunctions, or other relief. The number and risk of these investigations and proceedings has increased in recent years in the financial services industry due to legal changes to the consumer protection laws provided for by the Dodd-Frank Act and the creation of the CFPB.
Our controls and procedures may fail or be circumvented, and our methods of reducing risk exposure may not be effective.
We regularly review and update our internal controls, disclosure controls and procedures, and corporate governance policies and procedures. We also maintain an ERM program designed to identify, measure, monitor, report, and analyze our risks. Additionally, our internal audit function provides an independent assessment and
testing of Key’s internal controls, policies, and procedures. Any system of controls and any system to reduce risk exposure, however well designed, operated, and tested, is based in part on certain assumptions and can provide only reasonable, not absolute, assurances that the objectives of the system are met. The systems may not work as intended or be circumvented by employees, third parties, or others outside of Key. Additionally, instruments, systems, and strategies used to hedge or otherwise manage exposure to various types of market compliance, credit, liquidity, operational, and business risks and enterprise-wide risk could be less effective than anticipated. As a result, we may not be able to effectively or fully mitigate our risk exposures in particular market environments or against particular types of risk.
Our operations and financial performance could be adversely affected by severe weather and natural disasters exacerbated by climate change.
Natural disasters could have a material adverse effect on our financial position and results of operations, and the timing and effects of any natural disaster cannot accurately be predicted. The frequency and severity of some types of natural disasters, including wildfires, tornadoes and hurricanes, have increased as a result of climate change, which further reduces our ability to predict their effects accurately. These and other natural disasters could affect Key directly (for example, by interrupting our systems, damaging our facilities or otherwise preventing us from conducting our business in the ordinary course) or indirectly (for example, by damaging or destroying customer businesses or otherwise impairing customers’ ability to repay their loans, or by damaging or destroying property pledged as collateral for loans made by Key).
Societal responses to climate change could adversely affect Key’s business and performance, including indirectly through impacts on Key’s customers.
Concerns over the long-term impacts of climate change have led and may continue to lead to governmental efforts around the world to mitigate those impacts. New and/or more stringent regulatory requirements could materially affect our results by requiring us to take costly measures to comply with any new laws or regulations related to climate change that may be forthcoming. Consumers and businesses also may change their own behavior as a result of these concerns. Key and its customers will need to respond to new laws and regulations, as well as consumer and business preferences resulting from climate change concerns. Key and its customers may face cost increases, asset value reductions, operating process changes, and the like. The impact on Key’s customers will likely vary depending on their specific attributes, including reliance on or role in carbon intensive activities. Changes to regulations or market shifts to low-carbon products could impact the credit worthiness or the value of assets securing loans of some of our customers, which may require us to adjust our lending portfolios and business strategies. Key’s efforts to take these risks into account in making lending and other decisions, including by increasing business relationships with climate-friendly companies, may not be effective in protecting Key from the negative impact of new laws and regulations or changes in consumer or business behavior.
The COVID-19 global pandemic has resulted in increased operational risks.
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in heightened operational risks. Much of our workforce has been working remotely, and increased levels of remote access create additional cybersecurity risk and opportunities for cybercriminals to exploit vulnerabilities. Cybercriminals may increase their attempts to compromise business emails, including an increase in phishing attempts, and fraudulent vendors or other parties may view the pandemic as an opportunity to prey upon consumers and businesses during this time. Cybercriminals have also found new means of stealing identities and exploiting stolen identities during the pandemic. This has resulted in increased fraud losses to us and the financial services industry. The increase in online and remote banking activities may also increase the risk of fraud in certain instances. In addition, state and local orders and regulations regarding the conduct of in-person business operations, including new or reimplemented measures imposed as a result of new COVID-19 variants, some of which have been, and may be in the future, more virulent or transmissible than the initial strain, and ongoing resurgences of COVID-19 cases across the U.S. may impact our ability to operate at normal levels and to restore operations to their pre-pandemic level for an unknown period of time. Separately, our third-party service providers have also been impacted by the pandemic and we have experienced some disruption to certain services performed by vendors. To date, these disruptions have not been material and we have developed solutions to work around these disruptions, but we may experience additional disruption in the future, which could adversely impact our business.
IV. Liquidity Risk
Capital and liquidity requirements imposed by banking regulations require banks and BHCs to maintain more and higher quality capital and more and higher quality liquid assets.
Evolving capital standards resulting from the Dodd-Frank Act and the Regulatory Capital Rules adopted by our regulators have had and will continue to have a significant impact on banks and BHCs, including Key. For a detailed explanation of the capital and liquidity rules that became effective for us on a phased-in basis on January 1, 2015, see the section titled “Regulatory capital requirements” under the heading “Supervision and Regulation” in Item 1 of this report.
The Federal Reserve’s capital standards require Key to maintain more and higher quality capital and could limit our business activities (including lending) and our ability to expand organically or through acquisitions. They could also result in our taking steps to increase our capital that may be dilutive to shareholders or limit our ability to pay dividends or otherwise return capital to shareholders.
In addition, the liquidity standards require us to hold high-quality liquid assets, may require us to change our future mix of investment alternatives, and may impact future business relationships with certain customers. Additionally, support of liquidity standards may be satisfied through the use of term wholesale borrowings, which tend to have a higher cost than that of traditional core deposits.
Further, the Federal Reserve has detailed the processes that BHCs should maintain to ensure they hold adequate capital under severely adverse conditions and have ready access to funding before engaging in any capital activities. These rules could limit Key’s ability to make distributions, including paying out dividends or buying back shares. For more information, see the section titled “Regulatory capital requirements” under the heading “Supervision and Regulation” in Item 1 of this report.
Recently, certain regulatory rule changes related to tailoring outlined in EGRRCPA have been finalized. While marginal relief from certain capital and liquidity standards has been afforded to Key (such as relief from LCR disclosure requirements), overall capital and liquidity management practices and expectations will remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. Moreover, Key does not anticipate significant changes to its overall liquidity and capital levels or composition as a result of the final rules.
Federal agencies’ actions to ensure stability of the U.S. financial system may have disruptive effects on us.
The federal government has taken unprecedented steps to provide stability to and confidence in the financial markets. For example, the Federal Reserve initiated a round of emergency interest rate cuts designed to mitigate some of the economic effects resulting from the pandemic. In the future, federal agencies may no longer support such initiatives. The discontinuation of such initiatives may have unanticipated or unintended impacts, perhaps severe, on the financial markets. These effects could include higher debt yields, a flatter or steeper slope to the yield curve, or unanticipated changes to quality spread premiums that may not follow historical relationships or patterns. In addition, new initiatives or legislation may not be implemented, or, if implemented, may not be adequate to counter any negative effects of discontinuing programs or, in the event of an economic downturn, to support and stabilize the economy.
We rely on dividends by our subsidiaries for most of our funds.
We are a legal entity separate and distinct from our subsidiaries. With the exception of cash that we may raise from debt and equity issuances, we receive substantially all of our funding from dividends by our subsidiaries. Dividends by our subsidiaries are the principal source of funds for the dividends we pay on our common and preferred stock and interest and principal payments on our debt. Federal banking law and regulations limit the amount of dividends that KeyBank (KeyCorp’s largest subsidiary) can pay. For further information on the regulatory restrictions on the payment of dividends by KeyBank, see “Supervision and Regulation” in Item 1 of this report.
In the event KeyBank is unable to pay dividends to us, we may not be able to service debt, pay obligations, or pay dividends on our common or preferred stock. Such a situation could result in Key losing access to alternative wholesale funding sources. In addition, our right to participate in a distribution of assets upon a subsidiary’s liquidation or reorganization is subject to the prior claims of the subsidiary’s creditors.
We are subject to liquidity risk, which could negatively affect our funding levels.
Market conditions or other events could negatively affect our access to or the cost of funding, affecting our ongoing ability to accommodate liability maturities and deposit withdrawals, meet contractual obligations, or fund asset growth and new business initiatives at a reasonable cost, in a timely manner and without adverse consequences.
Although we maintain a liquid asset portfolio and have implemented strategies to maintain sufficient and diverse sources of funding to accommodate planned as well as unanticipated changes in assets, liabilities, and off-balance sheet commitments under various economic conditions (including a reduced level of wholesale funding sources), a substantial, unexpected, or prolonged change in the level or cost of liquidity could have a material adverse effect on us. If the cost effectiveness or the availability of supply in these credit markets is reduced for a prolonged period of time, our funding needs may require us to access funding and manage liquidity by other means. These alternatives may include generating client deposits, securitizing or selling loans, extending the maturity of wholesale borrowings, borrowing under certain secured borrowing arrangements, using relationships developed with a variety of fixed income investors, and further managing loan growth and investment opportunities. These alternative means of funding may result in an increase to the overall cost of funds and may not be available under stressed conditions, which would cause us to liquidate a portion of our liquid asset portfolio to meet any funding needs.
Our credit ratings affect our liquidity position.
The rating agencies regularly evaluate the securities issued by KeyCorp and KeyBank. The ratings of our long-term debt and other securities are based on a number of factors, including our financial strength, ability to generate earnings, and other factors. Some of these factors are not entirely within our control, such as conditions affecting the financial services industry and the economy and changes in rating methodologies. Changes in any of these factors could impact our ability to maintain our current credit ratings. A rating downgrade of the securities of KeyCorp or KeyBank could adversely affect our access to liquidity and could significantly increase our cost of funds, trigger additional collateral or funding requirements, and decrease the number of investors and counterparties willing to lend to us, reducing our ability to generate income.
The COVID-19 global pandemic may continue to cause uncertainty in markets and may result in an increase in our cost of funds.
The COVID-19 global pandemic has caused a great amount of uncertainty in markets, causing credit markets to seize and forcing companies, including our clients, to seek liquidity in the face of uncertain future cash flows. To the extent that clients’ funds are not used as working capital and not placed on deposit with KeyBank, we could be faced with funding significant draws of committed lending facilities, along with requests for new facilities from our clients. Clients may look to Key for additional funding vehicles should the capital markets become more unstable and illiquid. As clients use deposit balances to fund their businesses, this may put funding pressure on Key, which may cause us to leverage our secured funding sources or pay higher rates than normal for additional funding.
V. Market Risk
A worsening of the U.S. economy and volatile or recessionary conditions in the U.S. or abroad could negatively affect our business or our access to capital markets.
A worsening of economic and market conditions or downside shocks could result in adverse effects on Key and others in the financial services industry. The prolonged low-interest rate environment, despite a generally recovering economy, has presented a challenge for the industry, including Key, and affects business and financial performance.
In particular, we could face some of the following risks, and other unforeseeable risks, in connection with a downturn in the economic and market environment or in the face of downside shocks or a recession, whether in the United States or internationally:
•A loss of confidence in the financial services industry and the debt and equity markets by investors, placing pressure on the price of Key’s common shares or decreasing the credit or liquidity available to Key;
•A decrease in consumer and business confidence levels generally, decreasing credit usage and investment or increasing delinquencies and defaults;
•A decrease in household or corporate incomes, reducing demand for Key’s products and services;
•A decrease in the value of collateral securing loans to Key’s borrowers or a decrease in the quality of Key’s loan portfolio, increasing loan charge-offs and reducing Key’s net income;
•A decrease in our ability to liquidate positions at acceptable market prices;
•The extended continuation of the current low-interest rate environment, continuing or increasing downward pressure to our net interest income;
•An increase in competition or consolidation in the financial services industry;
•Increased concern over and scrutiny of the capital and liquidity levels of financial institutions generally, and those of our transaction counterparties specifically;
•A decrease in confidence in the creditworthiness of the United States or other issuers whose securities we hold; and
•An increase in limitations on or the regulation of financial services companies like Key.
We are subject to interest rate risk, which could adversely affect net interest income.
Our earnings are largely dependent upon our net interest income. Net interest income is the difference between interest income earned on interest-earning assets such as loans and securities and interest expense paid on interest-bearing liabilities such as deposits and borrowed funds. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors that are beyond our control, including general economic conditions, the competitive environment within our markets, consumer preferences for specific loan and deposit products, and policies of various governmental and regulatory agencies, in particular, the Federal Reserve. Changes in monetary policy, including changes in interest rate controls being applied by the Federal Reserve, could influence the amount of interest we receive on loans and securities, the amount of interest we pay on deposits and borrowings, our ability to originate loans and obtain deposits, and the fair value of our financial assets and liabilities. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and begins to reverse pandemic-related stimulus programs, the behavior of national money market rate indices, the correlation of consumer deposit rates to financial market interest rates, and the setting of benchmark rates may not follow historical relationships, which could influence net interest income and net interest margin.
Moreover, if the interest we pay on deposits and other borrowings increases at a faster rate than the interest we receive on loans and other investments, net interest income, and therefore our earnings, would be adversely affected. Conversely, earnings could also be adversely affected if the interest we receive on loans and other investments falls more quickly than the interest we pay on deposits and other borrowings.
Uncertainty surrounding the transition from LIBOR to an alternate reference rate may adversely affect our business.
On July 27, 2017, the Chief Executive of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “Authority”), which regulates LIBOR, announced that the Authority intends to stop persuading or compelling banks to submit rates for the calculation of LIBOR to the administrator of LIBOR after 2021. On March 5, 2021, ICE Benchmark Administration (“IBA”), the FCA-regulated and authorized administrator of LIBOR, confirmed, following a consultation process occurring during the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021, its intention to cease one-week and two-month US$ LIBOR settings at December 31, 2021, and cease the US$ LIBOR panel at June 30, 2023, effectively ceasing all other US$ LIBOR tenors. A transition away from the widespread use of LIBOR to alternative rates is currently underway, as regulators have issued guidance indicating that new LIBOR originations should not extend beyond December 31, 2021. Although no consensus exists at this time as to what benchmark rate or rates may become accepted alternatives to LIBOR, in the United States, the Alternative Reference Rates of the Federal Reserve (“ARRC”) and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York started in May 2018 to publish the Secured Overnight Finance Rate (“SOFR”) as an alternative to U.S. dollar LIBOR. SOFR is a broad measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight that is collateralized by U.S. treasury securities. While SOFR has been considered a likely alternative to LIBOR, and has been recommended by the ARRC, issues remain as to whether it will be the primary benchmark replacement or whether different credit sensitive benchmarks could also become market-accepted. Accordingly, whether SOFR will become a market-accepted alternative to LIBOR remains uncertain. At this time, it is not possible to predict the effect of the Authority’s and IBA’s announcements, or other regulatory changes or announcements, the uncertainty surrounding regulatory guidance and market conventions impacting LIBOR activity post December 31, 2021, any establishment of alternative reference rates, or any other reforms to LIBOR that may be enacted in the United Kingdom, the United States, or elsewhere. The uncertainty regarding the transition from LIBOR to another benchmark rate or rates could have adverse impacts on floating-rate obligations, loans, deposits, derivatives, and other financial instruments that currently use LIBOR as a benchmark rate and, ultimately, adversely affect KeyCorp’s financial condition and results of operations. The adverse impact could take various forms and is dependent upon certain factors outside of our control such as: timing of adoption by market forces of a new widely
accepted LIBOR replacement, timing of LIBOR cessation, counterparty acceptance of a new reference rate for both new and existing contracts, and competition presented by non-regulated entities, among others. Additionally, since LIBOR and any replacement reference rate may have significantly different attributes, it is difficult to predict the amount of increased costs associated with implementing the transition to a new reference rate, including costs relative to product changes, systems changes, compliance and operational oversight costs, and legal expenses, among others.
Our profitability depends upon economic conditions in the geographic regions where we have significant operations and in certain market segments in which we conduct significant business.
We have concentrations of loans and other business activities in geographic regions where our bank branches are located — Washington; Oregon/Alaska; Rocky Mountains; Indiana/Northwest Ohio/Michigan; Central/Southwest Ohio; East Ohio/Western Pennsylvania; Atlantic; Western New York; Eastern New York; and New England — and additional exposure to geographic regions outside of our branch footprint. Economic growth in the various regions where we operate has been uneven, and the health of the overall U.S. economy may differ from the economy of any particular geographic region. Adverse conditions in a geographic region such as inflation, unemployment, recession, natural disasters, impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, or other factors beyond our control could impact the ability of borrowers in these regions to repay their loans, decrease the value of collateral securing loans made in these regions, or affect the ability of our customers in these regions to continue conducting business with us.
Additionally, a significant portion of our business activities are concentrated within the commercial real estate, healthcare, finance, and utilities market segments. The profitability of some of these market segments depends upon the health of the overall economy, seasonality, the impact of regulation, and other factors that are beyond our control and may be beyond the control of our customers in these market segments.
An economic downturn in one or more geographic regions where we conduct our business, or any significant or prolonged impact on the profitability of one or more of the market segments with which we conduct significant business activity, could adversely affect the demand for our products and services, the ability of our customers to repay loans, the value of the collateral securing loans, and the stability of our deposit funding sources.
The soundness of other financial institutions could adversely affect us.
Our ability to engage in routine funding transactions could be adversely affected by the actions and commercial soundness of other financial institutions. We have exposure to many different industries and counterparties in the financial services industries, and we routinely execute transactions with such counterparties, including brokers and dealers, commercial banks, investment banks, mutual and hedge funds, insurance companies, and other institutional clients. Financial services institutions are interrelated as a result of trading, clearing, counterparty, or other relationships. Defaults by one or more financial services institutions have led to, and may cause, market-wide liquidity problems and losses. Many of our transactions with other financial institutions expose us to credit risk in the event of default of a counterparty or client. In addition, our credit risk may be affected when the collateral held by us cannot be realized or is liquidated at prices not sufficient to recover the full amount of our loan or derivatives exposure.
Less regulated and poorly capitalized non-bank financial institutions may be particularly vulnerable to asset quality deterioration as their borrower’s ability to service their obligations declines amid the pandemic. This could put additional stress on traditional lenders.
VI. Reputation Risk
Damage to our reputation could significantly harm our businesses.
Our ability to attract and retain customers, clients, investors, and highly skilled management and employees is affected by our reputation. Significant harm to our reputation can arise from various sources, including employee misconduct, actual or perceived unethical behavior, litigation or regulatory outcomes, failing to deliver minimum or required standards of service and quality, compliance failures, disclosure of confidential information, significant or numerous failures, interruptions or breaches of our information systems, failure to meet external commitments and goals, including financial, and the activities of our clients, customers and counterparties, including vendors. In addition, negative information posted about Key on social media websites, whether or not factually correct, may affect our reputation and our business prospects. Actions by the financial services industry generally or by certain members or individuals in the industry may have a significant adverse effect on our reputation. We could also suffer significant reputational harm if we fail to properly identify and manage potential conflicts of interest. Management of potential conflicts of interests is complex as we expand our business activities through more numerous transactions, obligations, and interests with and among our clients. The actual or perceived failure to adequately address conflicts of interest could affect the willingness of clients to deal with us, which could adversely affect our businesses.
In addition, social and environmental activists are increasingly targeting financial services firms with public criticism for their relationships with clients engaged in industries they perceive to be harmful to communities or the environment. Such criticism directed at Key could generate dissatisfaction among our stakeholders. Although we take steps to minimize reputation risk in dealing with our customers and other constituencies, Key, as a large diversified financial services company with a high industry profile, is inherently exposed to this risk. Furthermore, investors have begun to consider how corporations are incorporating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) matters, including climate change, into their business strategy. These shifts in investing priorities may result in adverse effects on the trading price of KeyCorp’s common stock if investors determine that KeyCorp has not made sufficient progress on ESG matters.
VII. Strategic Risk
We may not realize the expected benefits of our strategic initiatives.
Our ability to compete depends on a number of factors, including, among others, our ability to develop and successfully execute our strategic plans and initiatives. Our strategic priorities include growing profitably and maintaining financial strength; effectively managing risk and reward; engaging a high-performing, talented, and diverse workforce; investing in digitalization to drive growth and simplification; embracing the changes required by our clients and the marketplace; and acquiring, expanding, and retaining targeted client relationships. The success of these initiatives can be subject to changes in the macroeconomic environment which is beyond our control. In addition, our inability to execute on or achieve the anticipated outcomes of our strategic priorities, or to do so in the expected timeframe, may affect how the market perceives us and could impede our growth and profitability.
We operate in a highly competitive industry.
We face substantial competition in all areas of our operations from a variety of competitors, some of which are larger and may have more financial resources than us. Our competitors primarily include national and super-regional banks as well as smaller community banks within the various geographic regions in which we operate. We also face competition from many other types of financial institutions, including, without limitation, savings associations, credit unions, mortgage banking companies, finance companies, mutual funds, insurance companies, investment management firms, investment banking firms, broker-dealers and other local, regional, national, and global financial services firms. In addition, technology has lowered barriers to entry and made it possible for nonbanks, including large technology companies, to offer products and services traditionally provided by banks. We expect the competitive landscape of the financial services industry to become even more intense as a result of legislative, regulatory, structural, customer preference, and technological changes.
Our ability to compete successfully depends on a number of factors, including: our ability to develop and execute strategic plans and initiatives; our ability to develop, maintain, and build long-term customer relationships based on quality service and competitive prices; our ability to develop competitive products and technologies demanded by our customers, while maintaining our high ethical standards and an effective compliance program and keeping our assets safe and sound; our ability to attract, retain, and develop a highly competent employee workforce; and
industry and general economic trends. Increased competition in the financial services industry, or our failure to perform in any of these areas, could significantly weaken our competitive position, which could adversely affect our growth and profitability.
Maintaining or increasing our market share depends upon our ability to adapt our products and services to evolving industry standards and consumer preferences, while maintaining competitive prices.
The continuous, widespread adoption of new technologies, including internet services and mobile devices (such as smartphones and tablets), requires us to evaluate our product and service offerings to ensure they remain competitive. Our success depends, in part, on our ability to adapt our products and services, as well as our distribution of them, to evolving industry standards and consumer preferences. New technologies have altered consumer behavior by allowing consumers to complete transactions such as paying bills or transferring funds directly without the assistance of banks. New products allow consumers to maintain funds in brokerage accounts or mutual funds that would have historically been held as bank deposits. The process of eliminating banks as intermediaries, known as “disintermediation,” could result in the loss of fee income, as well as the loss of customer loans and deposits and related income generated from those products.
The increasing pressure from our competitors, both bank and nonbank, to keep pace and adopt new technologies and products and services requires us to incur substantial expense. We may be unsuccessful in developing or introducing new products and services, modifying our existing products and services, adapting to changing consumer preferences and spending and saving habits, achieving market acceptance or regulatory approval, sufficiently developing or maintaining a loyal customer base, or offering products and services at prices equal to or lower than the prices offered by our competitors. These risks may affect our ability to achieve growth in our market share and could reduce both our revenue streams from certain products and services and our revenues from our net interest income.
We may not be able to attract and retain skilled people.
Our success depends, in large part, on our ability to attract, retain, motivate, and develop a talented and diverse workforce. Competition for the best people in most of our business activities is ongoing and can be intense, and we may not be able to retain or hire the people we want or need to serve our customers. Additionally, the profile of some of the people we target has changed significantly, causing those with whom we compete for talent to also change and to include nonbanks and large technology companies. We face additional competition particularly for employees who are able to work remotely, as the impact of COVID-19 has increased remote opportunities, which is likely to survive the pandemic. In addition, we may be constrained in hiring and retaining sufficient qualified employees due to general labor shortages in our industry, including potential employee attrition resulting from any vaccine mandates that may be applicable to us. To attract and retain qualified employees, we must compensate these employees at market levels. Typically, those levels have caused employee compensation to be our greatest expense.
Our incentive compensation structure and sales practices are subject to review by our regulators, who may identify deficiencies in the structure of or issue additional guidance on our compensation practices, causing us to make changes that may affect our ability to offer competitive compensation to these individuals or that place us at a disadvantage to non-financial service competitors. Our ability to attract and retain talented employees may be affected by these developments or any new executive compensation limits and regulations.
Acquisitions or strategic partnerships may disrupt our business and dilute shareholder value.
Acquiring other banks, bank branches, or other businesses involves various risks commonly associated with acquisitions or partnerships, including exposure to unknown or contingent liabilities of the acquired company; diversion of our management’s time and attention; significant integration risk with respect to employees, accounting systems, and technology platforms; increased regulatory scrutiny; and, the possible loss of key employees and customers of the acquired company. We regularly evaluate merger and acquisition and strategic partnership opportunities and conduct due diligence activities related to possible transactions. As a result, mergers or acquisitions involving cash, debt or equity securities may occur at any time. Acquisitions may involve the payment of a premium over book and market values. Therefore, some dilution of our tangible book value and net income per common share could occur in connection with any future transaction.
VIII. Model Risk
We rely on quantitative models to manage certain accounting, risk management, capital planning, and treasury functions.
We use quantitative models to help manage certain aspects of our business and to assist with certain business decisions, including, but not limited to, estimating CECL, measuring the fair value of financial instruments when reliable market prices are unavailable, estimating the effects of changing interest rates and other market measures on our financial condition and results of operations, managing risk, and for capital planning purposes (including during the capital stress testing process). Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships. Thus, our modeling methodologies rely on many assumptions, historical analyses, correlations, and available data. These assumptions provide only reasonable, not absolute, estimates, particularly in times of market distress when historical correlations on which we rely may no longer be relevant, such as has been experienced as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, as businesses and markets evolve, our measurements may not accurately reflect this evolution. Models can also produce inadequate estimates due to errors in computer code, use of unsuitable data during development or input into the model during model use, or the use of a model for a purpose outside the scope of the model’s design.
If our models fail to produce reliable results on an ongoing basis, we may not make appropriate risk management, capital planning, or other business or financial decisions. Furthermore, strategies that we employ to manage and govern the risks associated with our use of models may not be effective or fully reliable, and as a result, we may realize losses or other lapses.
We have an enterprise-wide model risk management program designed to accurately identify, measure, report, monitor, and manage model risk. The management of model risk includes independent validation and model governance, establishing and monitoring model control standards and model risk metrics, and completeness and accuracy of the inventory of models.
Banking regulators continue to focus on the models used by banks and bank holding companies in their businesses. The failure or inadequacy of a model may result in increased regulatory scrutiny on us or may result in an enforcement action or proceeding against us by one of our regulators.