ERIE, §1A diff (2017 → 2018)

ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS Our business involves various risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to those discussed in this section. The risks and uncertainties described in the risk factors below, or any additional risk outside of those discussed below, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, operating results, cash flows, or liquidity if they were to develop into actual events. This information should be considered carefully together with the other information contained in this report and in other reports and materials we file periodically with the Securities and Exchange Commission. If the management fee rate paid by the Exchange is reduced or if there is a significant decrease in the amount of direct and assumed premiums written by the Exchange, revenues and profitability could be materially adversely affected. We are dependent upon management fees paid by the Exchange, which represent our principal source of revenue. Pursuant to the subscriber's agreement with the subscribers at the Exchange, we may retain up to 25% of all direct and assumed premiums written by the Exchange. Therefore, management fee revenue from the Exchange is calculated by multiplying the management fee rate by the direct and assumed premiums written by the Exchange. Accordingly, any reduction in direct and assumed premiums written by the Exchange and/or the management fee rate would have a negative effect on our revenues and net income. The management fee rate is determined by our Board of Directors and may not exceed 25% of the direct and assumed premiums written by the Exchange. The Board of Directors sets the management fee rate each December for the following year. At their discretion, the rate can be changed at any time. The process of setting the management fee rate includes the evaluation of current year operating results compared to both prior year and industry estimated results for both Indemnity and the Exchange, and consideration of several factors for both entities including: their relative financial strength and capital position; projected revenue, expense and earnings for the subsequent year; future capital needs; as well as competitive position. The evaluation of these factors could result in a reduction to the management fee rate and our revenues and profitability could be materially adversely affected. Serving as the attorney-in-fact in the reciprocal insurance exchange structure results in the Exchange being our sole customer. We have an interest in the growth of the Exchange as our earnings are largely generated from management fees based on the direct and assumed premiums written by the Exchange. If the Exchange's ability to grow or renew policies were adversely impacted, the premium revenue of the Exchange would be adversely affected which would reduce our management fee revenue. The circumstances or events that might impair the Exchange's ability to grow include, but are not limited to, the items discussed below. Unfavorable changes in macroeconomic conditions, including declining consumer confidence, inflation, high unemployment, and the threat of recession, among others, may lead the Exchange's customers to modify coverage, not renew policies, or even cancel policies, which could adversely affect the premium revenue of the Exchange, and consequently our management fee. The Exchange faces significant competition from other regional and national insurance companies. The property and casualty insurance industry is highly competitive on the basis of product, price and service. If the Exchange's competitors offer property and casualty products with more coverage or offer lower rates, and the Exchange is unable to implement product improvements quickly enough to keep pace, its ability to grow and renew its business may be adversely impacted. In addition, due to the Exchange's premium concentration in the automobile and homeowners insurance markets, it may be more sensitive to trends that could affect auto and home insurance coverages and rates over time, for example changing vehicle usage, usage-based methods of determining premiums, ownership and driving patterns such as ride sharing, advancements in vehicle or home technology or safety features such as accident and loss prevention technologies, the development of autonomous vehicles, or residential occupancy patterns, among other factors. The Exchange markets and sells its insurance products through independent, non-exclusive insurance agencies. These agencies are not obligated to sell only the Exchange's insurance products, and generally also sell products of the Exchange's competitors. If agencies do not maintain their current levels of marketing efforts, bind the Exchange to unacceptable risks, place business with competing insurers, or the Exchange is unsuccessful in attracting or retaining agencies in its distribution system as well as maintaining its relationships with those agencies, the Exchange's ability to grow and renew its business may be adversely impacted. Additionally, consumer preferences may cause the insurance industry as a whole to migrate to a delivery system other than independent agencies. The Exchange maintains a brand recognized for customer service. The perceived performance, actions, conduct and behaviors of employees, independent insurance agency representatives, and third-party service partners may result in reputational harm to the Exchange's brand. Specific incidents which may cause harm include but are not limited to disputes, long customer wait times, errors in processing a claim, failure to protect sensitive customer data, and negative or inaccurate social media communications. Likewise, an inability to match or exceed the service provided by competitors, which is increasingly relying on digital delivery and enhanced distribution technology, may impede the Exchange's ability to maintain and/or grow its customer base. If third-party service providers fail to perform as anticipated, the Exchange may experience operational difficulties, increased costs and reputational damage. If an extreme catastrophic event were to occur in a heavily concentrated geographic area of subscribers/policyholders, an extraordinarily high number of claims could have the potential to strain claims processing and affect the Exchange's ability to satisfy its customers. Any reputational harm to the Exchange could have the potential to impair its ability to grow and renew its business. We also have an interest in the financial condition of the Exchange based on serving as the attorney-in-fact in the reciprocal insurance exchange structure and the Exchange being our sole customer. Our earnings are largely generated from management fees based on the direct and assumed premiums written by the Exchange. If the Exchange were to fail to maintain acceptable financial strength ratings, its competitive position in the insurance industry would be adversely affected. If a rating downgrade led to customers not renewing or canceling policies, or impacted the Exchange's ability to attract new customers, the premium revenue of the Exchange would be adversely affected which would reduce our management fee revenue. The circumstances or events that might impair the Exchange's financial condition include, but are not limited to, the items discussed below. Financial strength ratings are an important factor in establishing the competitive position of insurance companies such as the Exchange. Higher ratings generally indicate greater financial stability and a stronger ability to meet ongoing obligations to policyholders. The Exchange's A.M. Best rating is currently A+ ("Superior"). Rating agencies periodically review insurers' ratings and change their rating criteria; therefore, the Exchange's current rating may not be maintained in the future. A significant downgrade in this or other ratings would reduce the competitive position of the Exchange, making it more difficult to attract profitable business in the highly competitive property and casualty insurance market and potentially result in reduced sales of its products and lower premium revenue. The performance of the Exchange's investment portfolio is subject to a variety of investment risks. The Exchange's investment portfolio is comprised principally of fixed income securities, equity securities and limited partnerships. The fixed income portfolio is subject to a number of risks including, but not limited to, interest rate risk, investment credit risk, sector/concentration risk and liquidity risk. The Exchange's common stock and preferred equity securities have exposure to price risk, the risk of potential loss in estimated fair value resulting from an adverse change in prices. Limited partnerships are significantly less liquid and generally involve higher degrees of price risk than publicly traded securities. Limited partnerships, like publicly traded securities, have exposure to market volatility; but unlike fixed income securities, cash flows and return expectations are less predictable. If any investments in the Exchange's investment portfolio were to suffer a substantial decrease in value, the Exchange's financial position could be materially adversely affected through increased unrealized losses or impairments. A significant decrease in the Exchange's portfolio could also put it, or its subsidiaries, at risk of failing to satisfy regulatory or rating agency minimum capital requirements. Property and casualty insurers are subject to extensive regulatory supervision in the states in which they do business. This regulatory oversight includes, by way of example, matters relating to licensing, examination, rate setting, market conduct, policy forms, limitations on the nature and amount of certain investments, claims practices, mandated participation in involuntary markets and guaranty funds, reserve adequacy, insurer solvency, restrictions on underwriting standards, accounting standards, and transactions between affiliates. Such regulation and supervision are primarily for the benefit and protection of policyholders. Changes in applicable insurance laws, regulations, or changes in the way regulators administer those laws or regulations could adversely change the Exchange's operating environment and increase its exposure to loss or put it at a competitive disadvantage, which could result in reduced sales of its products and lower premium revenue. As insurance industry practices and legal, judicial, social and other environmental conditions change, unexpected and unintended issues related to claims and coverage may emerge. In some instances, these emerging issues may not become apparent for some time after the Exchange has issued the affected insurance policies. As a result, the full extent of liability under the Exchange's insurance policies may not be known for many years after the policies are issued. These issues may adversely affect the Exchange's business by either extending coverage beyond its underwriting intent or by increasing the number or size of claims. The Exchange's insurance operations are exposed to claims arising out of catastrophes. Common natural catastrophic events include hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, hail storms, and severe winter weather. The frequency and severity of these catastrophes is inherently unpredictable. Changing climate conditions have added to the unpredictability, frequency and severity of natural disasters and have created additional uncertainty as to future trends and exposures. A single catastrophic occurrence or aggregation of multiple smaller occurrences within its geographical region could adversely affect the financial condition of the Exchange. Terrorist attacks could also cause losses from insurance claims related to the property and casualty insurance operations. The Exchange could incur large net losses if terrorist attacks were to occur which could adversely affect its financial condition. If the costs of providing services to the Exchange are not controlled, our profitability could be materially adversely affected. Pursuant to the subscriber's agreement, we perform policy issuance and renewal services for the subscribers at the Exchange and we serve as the attorney-in-fact on behalf of the Exchange with respect to its administrative services. The most significant costs we incur in providing policy issuance and renewal services are commissions, employee costs, and technology costs. Commissions to independent agents are our largest expense. Commissions include scheduled commissions to agents based upon premiums written as well as additional commissions and bonuses to agents, which are earned by achieving certain targeted measures. Changes to commission rates or bonus programs may result in increased future costs and lower profitability. Our second largest expense is employee costs, including salaries, healthcare, pension, and other benefit costs. Regulatory developments, provider relationships, and demographic and economic factors that are beyond our control indicate that employee healthcare costs could continue to increase. Although we actively manage these cost increases, there can be no assurance that future cost increases will not occur and reduce our profitability. The defined benefit pension plan we offer to our employees is affected by variable factors such as the interest rate used to discount pension liabilities, asset performance and changes in retirement patterns, which are beyond our control and any related future costs increases would reduce our profitability. Technological development is necessary to facilitate ease of doing business for employees, agents and customers. Insurance company technological developments are focused on simplifying and improving the customer experience, increasing efficiencies, redesigning products and addressing other potentially disruptive changes in the insurance industry. As we continue to develop technology initiatives in order to remain competitive, our profitability could be negatively impacted as we invest in system development projects. We are subject to credit risk from the Exchange because the management fees from the Exchange are not paid immediately when premiums are written. We recognize a significant portion of management fees due from the Exchange as income when the premiums are written because at that time we have performed substantially all of the services we are required to perform related to policy issuance and renewal. However, the management fees are not paid to us by the Exchange until the Exchange collects the premiums from subscribers/policyholders. As a result, we hold receivables for management fees on premiums that have been written and assumed by the Exchange but not yet collected. We also hold receivables from the Exchange for claims related and administrative costs for which we are reimbursed at actual costs. These costs are settled monthly. The receivable from the Exchange totaled $449.9 million, or approximately 25% of our total assets at December 31, 2018. Our ability to attract, develop, and retain talented executives, key managers, and employees is critical to our success. Our success is largely dependent upon our ability to attract and retain executives and other key management. The loss of the services and leadership of certain key officers and the failure to attract and develop talented new executives and managers could prevent us from successfully communicating, implementing, and executing business strategies, and therefore have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. Our success also depends on our ability to attract, develop, and retain a talented employee base. The inability to staff all functions of our business with employees possessing the appropriate technical expertise, or our failure to recognize and respond to changing trends and other circumstances that affect our employees, could have an adverse effect on our business performance. Staffing appropriately skilled employees for the handling of claims and servicing of customers, rendering of disciplined underwriting, and effective sales and marketing are critical to the core functions of our business. In addition, skilled employees in the actuarial, finance, human resources, law, and information technology areas are also essential to support our core functions. If we are unable to ensure system availability or effectively manage technology initiatives, we may experience adverse financial consequences and/or may be unable to compete effectively. Our business is highly dependent upon the effectiveness of our technology and information systems which support key functions of our core business operations including processing applications and premium payments, providing customer support, performing actuarial and financial analysis, and maintaining key data. Additionally, the Exchange relies heavily on technology systems for processing claims. In order to support our business processes and strategic initiatives in a cost and resource efficient manner, we must maintain the effectiveness of existing technology systems and continue to both develop new, and enhance existing, technology systems. As we invest in the development of our systems, costs and completion times could exceed original estimates, and/or the project may not deliver the anticipated benefit, or perform as expected. If we do not effectively and efficiently manage and upgrade our technology systems, our ability to serve our customers and implement our strategic initiatives could be adversely impacted. We utilize third-party software for certain technology and business process functions. If our third-party software vendors are subjected to intellectual property infringement claims, we may lose the ability to use their software until the dispute is resolved. Additionally, we depend on a large amount of data to price policies appropriately, track exposures, perform financial analysis, report to regulatory bodies, and ultimately make business decisions. Should this data be inaccurate or insufficient, risk exposure may be underestimated and/or poor business decisions may be made. This may in turn lead to adverse operational or financial performance and adverse customer or investor confidence. If we experience difficulties with technology, data and network security, including as a result of cyber attacks, third-party relationships or cloud-based relationships, our ability to conduct our business could be adversely impacted. In the normal course of business we collect, use, store and where appropriate, disclose data concerning individuals and businesses. We also conduct business using third-party vendors who may provide software, data storage, cloud-based computing and other technology services. Like other companies, we have on occasion experienced, and will continue to experience, cyber threats to our data and systems. Cyber threats can create significant risks such as destruction of systems or data, denial of service, disruption of transaction execution, loss or exposure of customer data, theft or exposure of our intellectual property, theft of funds or disruption of other important business functions. The business we conduct with our third-party vendors may expose us to increased risk related to data security, service disruptions or effectiveness of our control system. In addition, we are subject to numerous federal and state data privacy laws relating to the privacy of the nonpublic personal information of our customers, employees and others. The misuse or mishandling of information sent to or received from a customer, employee or third party could result in legal liability, regulatory action and reputational damage. Third parties on whom we rely for certain business processing functions are also subject to these risks, and their failure to adhere to these laws and regulations could negatively impact us. We employ a company-wide cybersecurity program of technical, administrative, physical and disclosure controls intended to reduce the risk of cyber threats and protect our information, as well as to communicate potential material threats and incidents. Our cybersecurity philosophy and approach align to the National Institute of Standards and Technology Cybersecurity Framework and its core elements to identify, protect, detect, respond and recover from the various forms of cyber threats. Our practices include, but are not limited to, cybersecurity protocols and controls, system monitoring and detection, communication of incidents to appropriate management, vendor risk management, and ongoing privacy and cybersecurity training for employees and contractors concerning cyber risk. We periodically assess the effectiveness of our cybersecurity efforts including independent validation and verification and security assessments conducted by independent third parties. The number, complexity and sophistication of cyber threats continue to increase over time. The controls we have implemented, and continue to develop, may not be sufficient to prevent events like unauthorized physical or electronic access, denial of service, cyber attacks, or other security breaches to our computer systems or those of third parties with whom we do business. In some cases, such events may not be immediately detected and/or the impact of such events immediately determined. Our Board of Directors oversees our activities with respect to managing cyber risk through a specific cybersecurity subcommittee. Management periodically reports on our cybersecurity risk management program including our risk evaluation and the results of independent third party security assessments, and our efforts to mitigate cyber related risks. To date, we are not aware of any material cybersecurity breach with respect to our systems or data. Any cyber incident or other security breach could cause disruption in our business operations and may result in other negative consequences including significant remediation costs, loss of revenue, additional regulatory scrutiny, fines, litigation, monetary damages and reputational harm. While we maintain cyber liability insurance to mitigate the financial risk around cyber incidents, such insurance may not cover all costs associated with the consequences of information or systems being compromised. As a result, in the event of a material cybersecurity breach, our business, cash flows, financial condition or results of operations could be materially, adversely affected. If events occurred causing interruption of our operations, facilities, systems or business functions, it could have a material adverse effect on our operations and financial results. We have an established business continuity plan to ensure the continuation of core business operations in the event that normal business operations could not be performed due to a catastrophic event. While we continue to test and assess our business continuity plan to ensure it meets the needs of our core business operations and addresses multiple business interruption events, there is no assurance that core business operations could be performed upon the occurrence of such an event. Systems failures or outages could compromise our ability to perform our business functions in a timely manner, which could harm our ability to conduct business and hurt our relationships with our business partners and customers. Our business continuity is also dependent on third-party systems on which our information technology systems interface and rely. Our systems and those of our third-party vendors may become vulnerable to damage or disruption due to circumstances beyond our or their control, such as from catastrophic events, power anomalies or outages, natural disasters, network failures, and viruses. The failure of our information systems for any reason could result in a material adverse effect on our business, cash flows, financial condition, or results of operations. The performance of our investment portfolio is subject to a variety of investment risks, which may in turn have a material adverse effect on our results of operations or financial condition. Our investment portfolio is comprised principally of fixed income securities. At December 31, 2018, our investment portfolio consisted of approximately 88% fixed income securities. The remaining 12% is comprised of other investments, limited partnerships and equity securities. All of our marketable securities are subject to market volatility. To the extent that future market volatility negatively impacts our investments, our financial condition will be negatively impacted. We review the investment portfolio on a continuous basis to evaluate positions that might have incurred other-than-temporary declines in value. Inherent in management's evaluation of a security are assumptions and estimates about the operations of the issuer and its future earnings potential. The primary factors considered in our review of investment valuation include the extent and duration to which fair value is less than cost, historical operating performance and financial condition of the issuer, short- and long-term prospects of the issuer and its industry, specific events that occurred affecting the issuer, including rating downgrades, and, depending on the type of security, our intent to sell or our ability and intent to retain the investment for a period of time sufficient to allow for a recovery in value. As the process for determining impairments is highly subjective, changes in our assessments may have a material effect on our operating results and financial condition. See also Item 7A. "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk". If the fixed income, equity, or limited partnership portfolios were to suffer a substantial decrease in value, our financial position and results of operations could be materially adversely affected through increased realized/unrealized losses or impairments. The performance of the fixed income portfolio is subject to a number of risks including, but not limited to: • Interest rate risk - the risk of adverse changes in the value of fixed income securities as a result of increases in market interest rates. • Investment credit risk - the risk that the value of certain investments may decrease due to the deterioration in financial condition of, or the liquidity available to, one or more issuers of those securities or, in the case of asset-backed securities, due to the deterioration of the loans or other assets that underlie the securities, which, in each case, also includes the risk of permanent loss. • Sector/Concentration risk - the risk that the portfolio may be too heavily concentrated in the securities of one or more issuers, sectors, or industries. Events or developments that have a negative impact on any particular industry, group of related industries, or geographic region may have a greater adverse effect on our investment portfolio to the extent that the portfolio is concentrated within those issuers, sectors, or industries. • Liquidity risk - the risk that we will not be able to convert investment securities into cash on favorable terms and on a timely basis, or that we will not be able to sell them at all, when desired. Disruptions in the financial markets or a lack of buyers for the specific securities that we are trying to sell, could prevent us from liquidating securities or cause a reduction in prices to levels that are not acceptable to us. General economic conditions and other factors beyond our control can adversely affect the value of our investments and the realization of net investment income, or result in realized investment losses. In addition, downward economic trends also may have an adverse effect on our investment results by negatively impacting the business conditions and impairing credit for the issuers of securities held in our respective investment portfolios. This could reduce fair values of investments and generate significant unrealized losses or impairment charges which may adversely affect our financial results. In addition to the fixed income securities, a portion of our portfolio is invested in limited partnerships. At December 31, 2018, we had investments in limited partnerships of $34.8 million, or 2% of total assets. While we have an obligation to invest up to an additional $12.2 million in limited partnerships, including private equity, mezzanine debt, and real estate partnership investments, the potential of the partnerships calling for the satisfaction of these obligations is low given the age of these investments. Limited partnerships are significantly less liquid and generally involve higher degrees of price risk, the risk of potential loss in estimated fair value resulting from an adverse change in prices, than publicly traded securities. Limited partnerships, like publicly traded securities, have exposure to market volatility; but unlike fixed income securities, cash flows and return expectations are less predictable. We have made no new limited partnership commitments since 2006, and the balance of limited partnership investments is expected to decline over time as additional distributions are received. The primary basis for the valuation of limited partnership interests are financial statements prepared by the general partner. Because of the timing of the preparation and delivery of these financial statements, the use of the most recently available financial statements provided by the general partners result in a quarter delay in the inclusion of the limited partnership results in our Statements of Operations. Due to this delay, our financial statements at December 31, 2018 do not reflect market conditions experienced in the fourth quarter of 2018. Our equity securities have exposure to price risk. We do not hedge our exposure to equity price risk inherent in our equity investments. Equity markets, sectors, industries, and individual securities may also be subject to some of the same risks that affect our fixed income portfolio, as discussed above. Deteriorating capital and credit market conditions or a failure to accurately estimate capital needs may significantly affect our ability to meet liquidity needs and access capital. Sufficient liquidity and capital levels are required to pay operating expenses, income taxes, and to provide the necessary resources to fund future growth opportunities, satisfy certain financial covenants, pay dividends on common stock, and repurchase common stock. Management estimates the appropriate level of capital necessary based upon current and projected results, which includes evaluating potential risks. Failure to accurately estimate our capital needs may have a material adverse effect on our financial condition until additional sources of capital can be obtained. Further, a deteriorating financial condition may create a negative perception of us by third parties, including rating agencies, investors, financial institutions, agents, and customers which could impact our ability to access additional capital in the debt or equity markets. Our primary sources of liquidity are management fee revenue and cash flows generated from our investment portfolio. In the event our current sources do not satisfy our liquidity needs, we have the ability to access our $100 million bank revolving line of credit, from which there were no borrowings as of December 31, 2018, or liquidate assets in our investment portfolio. Volatility in the financial markets could limit our ability to sell certain of our fixed income securities or cause such investments to sell at deep discounts. In the event these traditional sources of liquidity are not available, we may have to seek additional financing. Our access to funds will depend upon a number of factors including current market conditions, the availability of credit, market liquidity, and credit ratings. In deteriorating market conditions, there can be no assurance that we will obtain additional financing, or, if available, that the cost of financing will not substantially increase and affect our overall profitability. We are subject to applicable insurance laws, tax statutes, and regulations, as well as claims and legal proceedings, which, if determined unfavorably, could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, or financial condition. We face a significant risk of litigation and regulatory investigations and actions in the ordinary course of operating our businesses including the risk of class action lawsuits. Our pending legal and regulatory actions include proceedings specific to us and others generally applicable to business practices in the industries in which we operate. In our operations, we are, have been, or may become subject to class actions and individual suits alleging, among other things, issues relating to sales or underwriting practices, payment of contingent or other sales commissions, product design, product disclosure, policy issuance and administration, additional premium charges for premiums paid on a periodic basis, charging excessive or impermissible fees on products, recommending unsuitable products to customers, and breaching alleged fiduciary or other duties, including our obligations to indemnify directors and officers in connection with certain legal matters. We are also subject to litigation arising out of our general business activities such as contractual and employment relationships and claims regarding the infringement of the intellectual property of others. Plaintiffs in class action and other lawsuits against us may seek very large or indeterminate amounts, including punitive and treble damages, which may remain unknown for substantial periods of time. We are also subject to various regulatory inquiries, such as information requests, subpoenas, and books and record examinations from state and federal regulators and authorities. Changes in the way regulators administer those laws, tax statutes, or regulations could adversely impact our business, cash flows, results of operations, or financial condition. ITEM 1B.