DG, §1A diff (2019 → 2020)

ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS Investment in our Company involves risks. You should carefully consider the risks described below and the other information in this report and other filings that we make from time to time with the SEC, including our consolidated financial statements and accompanying notes. Any of the following risks could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations or liquidity. These risks are not the only risks we face. Our business, financial condition, results of operations or liquidity could also be adversely affected by additional factors that apply to all companies generally or by risks not currently known to us or that we currently view to be immaterial. We can provide no assurance and make no representation that our risk mitigation efforts, although we believe they are reasonable, will be successful. Economic factors may reduce our customers’ spending, impair our ability to execute our strategies and initiatives, and increase our costs and expenses, which could result in materially decreased sales or profitability. Many of our customers have fixed or low incomes and limited discretionary spending dollars. Any factor that could adversely affect their disposable income could decrease our customers’ spending or cause them to shift their spending to our lower margin product choices, which could result in materially decreased sales and profitability. Factors that could reduce our customers’ disposable income include but are not limited to high unemployment or underemployment levels or decline in real wages; inflation; higher fuel, energy, healthcare and housing costs, interest rates, consumer debt levels, and tax rates; tax law changes that negatively affect credits and refunds; lack of available credit; and decreases in, or elimination of, government subsidies such as unemployment and food assistance programs. Many of the economic factors listed above, as well as commodity rates; transportation, lease and insurance costs; wage rates; foreign exchange rate fluctuations; measures that create barriers to or increase the costs of international trade (including increased import duties or tariffs); changes in applicable laws and regulations; and other economic factors, also could impair our ability to successfully execute our strategies and initiatives, as well as increase our cost of goods sold and selling, general and administrative expenses (including real estate costs), and may have other adverse consequences that we are unable to fully anticipate or control, all of which may materially decrease our sales or profitability. Our plans depend significantly on strategies and initiatives designed to increase sales and profitability and improve the efficiencies, costs and effectiveness of our operations, and failure to achieve or sustain these plans could materially affect our results of operations. We have short-term and long-term strategies and initiatives (such as those relating to merchandising, real estate and new store development, store formats, digital, shrink, sourcing, private brand, inventory management, supply chain, store operations, expense reduction, and technology) in various stages of testing, evaluation, and implementation, which are designed to continue to improve our results of operations and financial condition. The effectiveness of these initiatives is inherently uncertain, even when tested successfully, and is dependent on consistency of training and execution, workforce stability, ease of execution, and the absence of offsetting factors that can influence results adversely. Many of these factors are made even more challenging by the number and diverse geographic locations of our stores and distribution centers and our decentralized field management. Other risk factors described herein also could negatively affect general implementation. Failure to achieve successful or cost-effective implementation of our initiatives could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition. The success of our merchandising initiatives, particularly our non-consumable initiatives and efforts to increase sales of higher margin products within the consumables category, further depends in part upon our ability to predict the products that our customers will demand and to identify and timely respond to evolving trends in demographic mixes in our markets and consumer preferences. If we are unable to select and timely obtain products that are attractive to customers and at costs that allow us to sell them at an acceptable profit, or to effectively market such products, it could result in materially decreased sales and profitability. The success of our DG Fresh initiative, our cold chain self-distribution initiative, further depends in part on our ability to effectively transition these distribution operations from our current service providers without business disruption, as well as on the availability of certain supply chain resources, including temperature-controlled distribution centers, refrigerated transportation equipment, and drivers. The success of our Fast Track initiative, which is designed to enhance our in-store labor productivity, on-shelf availability and customer convenience, further depends in part on customer interest and adoption of self-checkout, our ability to gain cost efficiencies and control shrink levels from the initiative, vendor cooperation, and successful implementation and maintenance of the necessary technology. If we cannot timely and cost-effectively execute our real estate projects and meet our financial expectations, or if we do not anticipate or successfully address the challenges imposed by our expansion, including into new states or urban areas, it could materially impede our planned future growth and our profitability. Delays in or failure to complete a significant portion of our real estate projects, or failure to meet our financial expectations for these projects, could materially adversely affect our growth and our profitability. Our ability to timely open, relocate and remodel profitable stores and expand into additional market areas is a key component of our planned future growth and may depend in part on: the availability of suitable store locations and capital funding; the absence of entitlement process or occupancy delays, including zoning restrictions and moratoria on small box discount retail development passed by local governments; the ability to negotiate acceptable lease and development terms (for example, real estate development requirements and cost of building materials and labor), to cost-effectively hire and train new personnel, especially store managers, and to identify and accurately assess sufficient customer demand; and general economic conditions. We also may not anticipate or successfully address all of the challenges imposed by the expansion of our operations, including into new states or urban areas where we have limited or no meaningful experience or brand recognition. Those areas may have different competitive and market conditions, consumer tastes and discretionary spending patterns than our existing markets, as well as higher cost of entry and operating costs. These factors may cause our new stores to be less profitable than stores in our existing markets, which could slow future growth in these areas. In addition, many new stores will be located in areas where we have existing stores, which inadvertently may temporarily or permanently divert a larger than anticipated number of customers and sales from our existing stores, thereby adversely affecting our overall financial performance. We face intense competition that could limit our growth opportunities and materially adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. The retail business is highly competitive with respect to price, customers, store location, merchandise quality, product assortment and presentation, service offerings, in-stock consistency, customer service, ease of shopping experience, promotional activity, employees, and market share. We compete with discount stores and many other retailers, including mass merchandise, warehouse club, grocery, drug, convenience, variety, online retailers, and certain specialty stores. To maintain our competitive position, we may be required to lower prices, either temporarily or permanently, and may have limited ability to increase prices in response to increased costs, resulting in lower margins and reduced profitability. Certain of our competitors have greater financial, distribution, marketing and other resources, and may be able to secure better arrangements with suppliers, than we can. Competition is intense, and is expected to continue to be so, with certain competitors reducing their store locations while others enter or increase their presence in our geographic and product markets (including through the expansion of availability of delivery services) and expand availability of mobile, web-based and other digital technologies to facilitate a more convenient and competitive online and in-store shopping experience. If our competitors or others were to enter our industry in a significant way, including through alliances or other business combinations, it could significantly alter the competitive dynamics of the retail marketplace and result in competitors with greatly improved competitive positions, which could materially affect our financial performance. Our ability to effectively compete will depend substantially upon our continued ability to develop and execute compelling and cost-effective strategies and initiatives. If we fail to anticipate or respond effectively to competitive pressures and industry changes, it could materially affect our results of operations and financial condition. Inventory shrinkage may negatively affect our results of operations and financial condition. We experience significant inventory shrinkage. Although some level of inventory shrinkage is an unavoidable cost of doing business, higher rates of inventory shrinkage or increased security or other costs to combat inventory theft could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. There can be no assurance that we will be successful in our efforts to reduce inventory shrinkage. Our cash flows from operations, profitability and financial condition may be negatively affected if we are not successful in managing our inventory balances. Our inventory balance represented approximately 55% of our total assets exclusive of goodwill, operating lease assets, and other intangible assets as of January 31, 2020. Efficient inventory management is a key component of our business success and profitability. We must maintain sufficient inventory levels and an appropriate product mix to meet our customers’ demands without allowing those levels to increase such that the costs to store and hold the goods unduly impacts our financial results or increases the risk of inventory shrinkage. If we do not accurately predict customer trends, spending levels, or price sensitivity, we may have to take unanticipated markdowns to dispose of the excess inventory, which also can adversely affect our financial results. We continue to focus on ways to reduce these risks, but we cannot make assurances that we will be successful in our inventory management. If we are not successful in managing our inventory balances, our cash flows from operations and financial condition may be negatively affected. Failure to maintain the security of our business, customer, employee or vendor information or to comply with privacy laws could expose us to litigation, government enforcement actions and costly response measures, and could materially harm our reputation and affect our business and financial performance. In connection with sales, we transmit confidential credit and debit card information which is encrypted using point-to-point encryption. We also have access to, collect or maintain certain private or confidential information regarding our customers, employees and their dependents, and vendors, as well as our business. Some of this information is stored electronically in connection with our e-commerce and mobile applications, some of which may leverage third-party service providers. Additionally, we may share information with select vendors that assist us in conducting our business. While we have implemented procedures and technology intended to protect such information and require appropriate controls of our service providers, cyberattackers could compromise such controls and obtain such information, as cyberattacks are becoming increasingly sophisticated and do not always immediately produce signs of intrusion. Moreover, inadvertent or malicious employee actions could result in a defeat of security measures and compromise our or our third-party vendors’ information systems. Like other retailers, we and our vendors have experienced threats to data and systems, including by perpetrators of attempted random or targeted malicious cyberattacks, computer viruses, worms, bot attacks or other destructive or disruptive software and attempts to misappropriate our information and cause system failures and disruptions. If cyberattackers obtain customer, employee or vendor passwords through unrelated third-party breaches, these passwords could be used to gain access to their information or accounts with us. Because we accept debit and credit cards for payment, we are subject to industry data protection standards and protocols, such as the Payment Card Industry Data Security Standards, issued by the Payment Card Industry Security Standards Council. Nonetheless, we may be vulnerable to, and unable to detect and appropriately respond to, data security breaches and data loss, including cybersecurity attacks or other breaches of cardholder data. A significant security breach of any kind experienced by us or one of our vendors, which could be undetected for a period of time, or a significant failure by us or one of our vendors to comply with applicable privacy and information security laws, regulations and standards could expose us to risks of data loss, litigation, government enforcement actions, fines or penalties, credit card brand assessments, negative publicity and reputational harm, business disruption and costly response measures (for example, providing notification to, and credit monitoring services for, affected individuals, as well as further upgrades to our security measures) which may not be covered by or may exceed the coverage limits of our insurance policies, and could materially disrupt our operations. Any resulting negative publicity could significantly harm our reputation which could cause us to lose market share as a result of customers discontinuing the use of our e-commerce and mobile applications or debit or credit cards in our stores or not shopping in our stores altogether and could materially adversely affect our business and financial performance. Material damage or interruptions to our information systems as a result of external factors, staffing shortages or challenges in maintaining or updating our existing technology or developing or implementing new technology could materially adversely affect our business and results of operations. We depend on a variety of information technology systems, including systems owned and managed by third-party vendors, for the efficient functioning of our business, including, without limitation, transaction processing and the management of our employees, facilities, logistics, inventories, stores and customer-facing digital applications and operations. Our technology initiatives may not deliver desired results or may do so on a delayed schedule. Additionally, such systems are subject to damage or interruption from power surges and outages, facility damage, physical theft, computer and telecommunications failures, inadequate or ineffective redundancy, malicious code (including computer viruses, worms, ransomware, or similar), cyberattacks (including account compromise; phishing; denial of service attacks; and application, network or system vulnerability exploitation), software upgrade failures or code defects, natural disasters and human error. Design defects or damage or interruption to these systems may require a significant investment to fix or replace, disrupt our operations, result in the loss or corruption of critical data, and harm our reputation, all of which could materially adversely affect our business or results of operations. We also rely heavily on our information technology staff. Failure to meet these staffing needs may negatively affect our ability to fulfill our technology initiatives while continuing to provide maintenance on existing systems. We rely on third parties to maintain and periodically upgrade many of these systems so that they can continue to support our business. We license the software programs supporting many of our systems from independent software developers. The inability of these vendors, developers or us to continue to maintain and upgrade these systems and software programs could disrupt or reduce the efficiency of our operations if we were unable to convert to alternate systems in an efficient and timely manner and could expose us to greater risk of a cyberattack. In addition, costs and delays associated with the implementation of new or upgraded systems and technology, including the migration of applications to the cloud, or with maintenance or adequate support of existing systems also could disrupt or reduce the efficiency of our operations, fail to operate as designed, result in the potential loss or corruption of data or information, disrupt operations and affect our ability to meet business and reporting requirements and adversely affect our profitability. A significant disruption to our distribution network, the capacity of our distribution centers or the timely receipt of inventory could adversely affect sales or increase our transportation costs, which would decrease our profitability. We rely on our distribution and transportation network to provide goods to our stores timely and cost-effectively. Using various transportation modes, including ocean, rail, and truck, we and our vendors move goods from vendor locations to our distribution centers and our stores. Any disruption, unanticipated or unusual expense or operational failure related to this process (for example, delivery delays, including as a result of pandemic outbreaks, or increases in transportation costs, including increased fuel costs, import freight costs, carrier or driver wages as a result of driver shortages; a decrease in transportation capacity for overseas shipments; labor shortages; or work stoppages for slowdowns) could negatively impact sales and profits. Labor shortages or work stoppages in the transportation industry or disruptions to the national and international transportation infrastructure that lead to delivery delays or that necessitate our securing alternative labor or shipping suppliers could also increase our costs or otherwise negatively affect our business. The recent outbreak of the strain of COVID-19 has led various governments to take precautionary measures to limit the spread of the virus, including port closures and other restrictions, which could disrupt the global transportation and distribution of goods resulting in product delivery delays or higher delivery prices. As of the date of this filing, we do not anticipate that supply chain disruptions either known or experienced to date as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak are likely to have a material impact on our financial results in 2020. However, the extent to which the COVID-19 outbreak may impact our distribution network, results of operations (including sales) or business in the future is uncertain as the situation continues to evolve, and such impact could be more significant. We maintain a network of distribution facilities and are moving forward with plans to build or lease new facilities to support our growth objectives and strategic initiatives. Delays in opening such facilities could adversely affect our financial performance by slowing store growth or the rollout of certain strategic initiatives such as our DG Fresh initiative, which may in turn reduce revenue growth, or by increasing transportation and product costs. In addition, distribution-related construction or expansion projects entail risks that could cause delays and cost overruns, such as: shortages of materials or skilled labor; work stoppages; unforeseen construction, scheduling, engineering, environmental or geological problems; weather interference; fires or other casualty losses; and unanticipated cost increases. For these reasons, the completion date and ultimate cost of these projects could differ significantly from initial expectations, and we cannot guarantee that any project will be completed on time or within established budgets. Risks associated with or faced by our suppliers could adversely affect our financial performance. We source our merchandise from a wide variety of domestic and international suppliers, and we depend on them to supply merchandise in a timely and efficient manner. In 2019, our two largest suppliers each accounted for approximately 8% of our purchases. If one or more of our current sources of supply became unavailable, we believe we generally would be able to obtain alternative sources, but it could increase our merchandise costs and supply chain lead time, result in a temporary reduction in store inventory levels, and reduce the selection and quality of our merchandise. An inability to obtain alternative sources could materially decrease our sales. Additionally, if a supplier fails to deliver on its commitments, we could experience merchandise out-of-stocks that could lead to lost sales and reputational harm. Further, failure of suppliers to meet our compliance protocols could prolong our procurement lead time, resulting in lost sales and adverse margin impact. We directly imported approximately 6% of our purchases (measured at cost) in 2019, but many of our domestic vendors directly import their products or components of their products. Changes to the prices and flow of these goods for any reason, such as political unrest, acts of war, currency fluctuations, disruptions in maritime lanes, port labor disputes, economic conditions and instability in countries in which foreign suppliers are located, the financial instability of suppliers, failure to meet our standards, issues with our suppliers’ labor practices or labor problems they may experience (such as strikes, stoppages or slowdowns, which could also increase labor costs during and following the disruption), the availability and cost of raw materials, pandemic outbreaks, merchandise quality or safety issues, transport availability and cost, increases in wage rates and taxes, transport security, inflation, and other factors relating to suppliers and the countries in which they are located or from which they import, often are beyond our control and could adversely affect our operations and profitability. While we are working to diversify our sources of imported goods, a substantial amount of our imported merchandise comes from China, and thus, a change in the Chinese leadership, the effects of pandemic outbreaks including COVID-19, economic and market conditions, internal economic stimulus actions, or currency or other policies, as well as trade relations between China and the United States and increases in costs of labor and wage taxes, could negatively impact our merchandise costs. We currently expect delays in the receipt of certain goods as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, but as of the date of this filing, we do not anticipate that these known supply chain disruptions experienced to date as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak are likely to have a material impact on our financial results in 2020. However, the extent to which the COVID-19 outbreak may impact our supply chain, results of operations (including sales) or business in the future is uncertain as the situation continues to evolve, and such impact could be more significant. In addition, the United States’ foreign trade policies, duties, tariffs and other impositions on imported goods, trade sanctions imposed on certain countries (particularly China), import limitations on certain types of goods or of goods containing certain materials from other countries and other factors relating to foreign trade and port labor agreements are beyond our control. These and other factors affecting our suppliers and our access to products could adversely affect our business and financial performance. If we increase our product imports from foreign vendors, the risks associated with these imports also will increase, and we may be exposed to additional or different risks as we increase imports of goods produced in countries other than China. Product liability, product recall or other product safety or labeling claims could adversely affect our business, reputation and financial performance. We are dependent on our vendors to ensure that the products we buy from them comply with applicable product safety and labeling laws and regulations and to inform us of all applicable restrictions on the sale of such products. Nonetheless, product liability, personal injury or other claims may be asserted against us relating to product contamination, tampering, expiration, mislabeling, recall and other safety or labeling issues, including those relating to products that we may self-distribute through our DG Fresh initiative. We seek but may not be successful in obtaining contractual indemnification and insurance coverage from our vendors. If we do not have adequate contractual indemnification or insurance available, such claims could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. Our ability to obtain indemnification from foreign vendors may be hindered by our ability to obtain jurisdiction over them to enforce contractual obligations. Even with adequate insurance and indemnification, such claims could significantly harm our reputation and consumer confidence in our products and we could incur significant litigation expenses, which also could materially affect our results of operations even if a product liability claim is unsuccessful or not fully pursued. A significant change in governmental regulations and requirements could materially increase our cost of doing business, and noncompliance with governmental regulations could materially adversely affect our financial performance. We routinely incur significant costs in complying with numerous and frequently changing laws and regulations. The complexity of this regulatory environment and related compliance costs are increasing due to additional legal and regulatory requirements, our expanding operations, and increased regulatory scrutiny and enforcement efforts. New or revised laws, regulations, policies and related interpretations and enforcement practices, particularly those dealing with environmental compliance, product and food safety or labeling, information security and privacy, labor and employment, employee wages, and those governing the sale of products, may significantly increase our expenses or require extensive system and operating changes that could materially increase our cost of doing business. Violations of applicable laws and regulations or untimely or incomplete execution of a required product recall can result in significant penalties (including loss of licenses, eligibility to accept certain government benefits such as SNAP or significant fines), class action or other litigation, and reputational damage. Additionally, changes in tax laws, the interpretation of existing laws, or our failure to sustain our reporting positions on examination could adversely affect our overall effective tax rate. Legal proceedings may adversely affect our reputation, business, results of operations and financial condition. Our business is subject to the risk of litigation or other legal proceedings by employees, consumers, suppliers, competitors, shareholders, government agencies and others through private actions, class actions, multi-district litigation, arbitrations, derivative actions, administrative proceedings, regulatory actions or other litigation. For example, we are involved in certain legal proceedings as discussed in Note 7 to the consolidated financial statements. The outcome of legal proceedings, particularly class action or multi-district litigation or mass arbitrations and regulatory actions, can be difficult to assess or quantify. Plaintiffs in these types of lawsuits may seek recovery of very large or indeterminate amounts, and the magnitude of the potential loss may remain unknown for lengthy periods. In addition, certain of these matters, if decided adversely to us or settled by us, may result in liability material to our financial statements as a whole or may negatively affect our operating results if changes to our business operations are required, and sometimes these developments are unanticipated. Legal proceedings in general, and class actions, multi-district litigation and derivative actions in particular, can be expensive and disruptive, and adverse publicity could harm our reputation, regardless of the validity of the allegations. As a result, legal proceedings may adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition. See also Note 7 to the consolidated financial statements. Our current insurance program may expose us to unexpected costs and negatively affect our financial performance. Our insurance coverage reflects deductibles, self-insured retentions, limits of liability and similar provisions that we believe are prudent based on our operations. However, there are types of losses we may incur but against which we cannot be insured or which we believe are not economically reasonable to insure, such as losses due to acts of war, certain crimes, including employee crime, certain wage and hour and other employment-related claims and litigation, actions based on certain consumer protection laws, and some natural and other disasters or similar events. If we incur material uninsured losses, our financial performance could suffer. Certain material events may result in sizable losses for the insurance industry and adversely affect the availability of adequate insurance coverage or result in excessive premium increases. To offset negative insurance market trends, we may elect to self-insure, accept higher deductibles or reduce the amount of coverage. In addition, we self-insure a significant portion of expected losses under our workers’ compensation, automobile liability, general liability (including claims made against certain of our landlords) and group health insurance programs. Significant changes in actuarial assumptions and management estimates underlying our recorded liabilities for these losses, including expected increases in medical and indemnity costs, could result in materially different expenses than expected under these programs, which could materially adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. Although we maintain property insurance for catastrophic events at our store support center and distribution centers, we are effectively self-insured for other property losses. If we experience a greater number of these losses than we anticipate, our financial performance could be adversely affected. Natural disasters and unusual weather conditions (whether or not caused by climate change), pandemic outbreaks or other health crises, acts of violence or terrorism, and global political events could disrupt business and result in lower sales and otherwise adversely affect our financial performance. The occurrence of one or more natural disasters, such as hurricanes, fires, floods, tornadoes and earthquakes, unusual weather conditions, pandemic outbreaks or other health crises (including but not limited to the COVID-19 outbreak), acts of violence or terrorism (including within our stores, distribution centers or other Company property), or disruptive global political events, such as civil unrest in countries in which our suppliers are located, or similar disruptions could adversely affect our reputation, business and financial performance. If any of these events result in the closure of one or more of our distribution centers, a significant number of stores, or our corporate headquarters or impact one or more of our key suppliers, our operations and financial performance could be materially adversely affected through an inability to make deliveries or provide other support functions to our stores and through lost sales. These events also could affect consumer shopping patterns or prevent customers from reaching our stores, which could lead to lost sales and higher markdowns, or result in increases in fuel or other energy prices, a fuel shortage, store or distribution center opening delays, the temporary lack of an adequate work force in a market, the temporary or long-term disruption of product availability in our stores, the temporary or long-term inability to obtain technology needed to effectively run our business, and disruption of our utility services or information systems. These events may also increase the costs of insurance if they result in significant loss of property or other insurable damage. Failure to attract, train and retain qualified employees while controlling labor costs, as well as other labor issues, could adversely affect our financial performance. Our future growth and performance, positive customer experience and legal and regulatory compliance depends on our ability to attract, train, retain and motivate qualified employees while operating in an industry challenged by historically high rates of employee turnover. Our ability to meet our labor needs, while controlling our labor costs, is subject to many external factors, including competition for and availability of qualified personnel, unemployment levels, wage rates, minimum wage laws, health and other insurance costs, changes in employment and labor laws or other workplace regulations (including changes in employee benefit programs such as health insurance and paid leave programs), employee activism, and our reputation and relevance within the labor market. If we are unable to attract, train and retain adequate numbers of qualified employees, our operations, customer service levels, legal and regulatory compliance, and support functions could suffer. In addition, to the extent a significant portion of our employee base unionizes, or attempts to unionize, our labor and other related costs could increase. Our ability to pass along labor and other related costs to our customers is constrained by our everyday low price model, and we may not be able to offset such increased costs elsewhere in our business. Our success depends on our executive officers and other key personnel. If we lose key personnel or are unable to hire additional qualified personnel, our business may be harmed. Our future success depends to a significant degree on the skills, experience and efforts of our executive officers and other key personnel. The unexpected loss of the services of any of such persons could adversely affect our operations. There can be no assurance that our executive succession planning, retention or hiring efforts will be successful. Competition for skilled and experienced management personnel is intense, and our future success will also depend on our ability to attract and retain qualified personnel, and a failure to attract and retain new qualified personnel could adversely affect our operations. Our private brands may not be successful in improving our gross profit rate and may increase certain of the risks we face. The sale of private brand items is an important component of our sales growth and gross profit rate enhancement plans. Broad market acceptance of our private brands depends on many factors, including pricing, quality, customer perception, and timely development and introduction of new products. We cannot give assurance that we will achieve or maintain our expected level of private brand sales. The sale and expansion of these offerings also subjects us to or increases certain risks, such as: product liability claims and product recalls; disruptions in raw material and finished product supply and distribution chains; inability to successfully protect our proprietary rights; claims related to the proprietary rights of third parties; and other risks generally encountered by entities that source, sell and market exclusive branded offerings for retail. Failure to appropriately address these risks could materially adversely affect our private brand initiatives, reputation, results of operations and financial condition. Because our business is somewhat seasonal, adverse events during the fourth quarter could materially affect our financial statements as a whole. Primarily because of sales of Christmas-related merchandise, our most profitable sales mix generally occurs in the fourth quarter. In anticipation of this holiday, we purchase substantial amounts of seasonal inventory, and if sales fall below seasonal norms or our expectations it could result in unanticipated markdowns. Adverse events, such as deteriorating economic conditions, high unemployment rates, high gas prices, transportation disruptions, or unusual or unanticipated adverse weather could result in lower-than-planned sales during the Christmas selling season, which in turn could reduce our profitability and otherwise adversely affect our financial performance and operating results. Deterioration in market conditions or changes in our credit profile could adversely affect our business operations and financial condition. We rely on the positive cash flow we generate from our operating activities and our access to the credit and capital markets to fund our operations, growth strategy, and return of cash to our shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Changes in the credit and capital markets, including market disruptions, limited liquidity and interest rate fluctuations, may increase the cost of financing or restrict our access to these potential sources of future liquidity. Our continued access to liquidity sources on favorable terms depends on multiple factors, including our operating performance and credit ratings. Our debt securities currently are rated investment grade, and a downgrade of this rating likely would negatively impact our access to the debt capital markets and increase our cost of borrowing. As a result, disruptions in the debt markets or any downgrade of our credit ratings could adversely affect our business operations and financial condition and our ability to return cash to our shareholders. We can make no assurances that our ability to obtain additional financing through the debt markets will not be adversely affected by economic conditions or that we will be able to maintain or improve our current credit ratings. New accounting guidance or changes in the interpretation or application of existing accounting guidance could adversely affect our financial performance. The implementation of new accounting standards could require certain systems, internal process and controls and other changes that could increase our operating costs, and will result in changes to our financial statements. In 2019 for example, the implementation of accounting standards related to leases, as issued by the Financial Accounting Standards Board, required us to make significant changes to our lease management and other accounting systems, and resulted in a material impact to our consolidated financial statements. U.S. generally accepted accounting principles and related accounting pronouncements, implementation guidelines and interpretations with regard to a wide range of matters that are relevant to our business involve many subjective assumptions, estimates and judgments by our management. Changes in these rules or their interpretation or in underlying management assumptions, estimates or judgments could significantly change our reported or expected financial performance. The outcome of such changes could include litigation or regulatory actions which could adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations. ITEM 1B.