CINF, §1A diff (2021 → 2022)

ITEM 1A. Risk Factors

Our business involves various risks and uncertainties that may affect achievement of our business objectives. Many of the risks could have ramifications across our organization. For example, while risks related to setting insurance rates and establishing and adjusting loss reserves are insurance activities, actual results differing from our assumptions, judgments or estimates in these areas could have an impact on our investment activities, growth and overall results.

The following discussion should be viewed as a starting point for understanding the significant risks we face. It is not a definitive summary of their potential impacts or of our strategies to manage and control the risks. Please see Item 7, Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, for a discussion of those strategies.

If any risks or uncertainties discussed here develop into actual events, they could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations or cash flows. In that case, the market price of our common stock could decline materially. The failure of our risk management strategies could have a material adverse impact on our consolidated financial condition, results of operations or cash flows.

Readers should carefully consider this information together with the other information we have provided in this report and in other reports and materials we file periodically with the Securities and Exchange Commission as well as news releases and other information we disseminate publicly.

Risks related to insurance operations

We rely primarily on independent insurance agents to distribute our products.

We market our main products, insurance policies for businesses and individuals, through independent, nonexclusive insurance agents. These agents are not obligated to promote our products and can and do sell our competitors’ products. We must offer insurance products that meet the needs of these agents and their clients. We need to maintain good relationships with the agents who market our products. If we do not, these agents may market our competitors’ products instead of ours, which may lead to us having a less desirable mix of business and could affect our results of operations.

In addition to our marketing of insurance policies for businesses and individuals, Cincinnati Re reinsures policies written by other insurance companies. This business is marketed through reinsurance intermediaries and is generally not offered by the typical independent agents who market our insurance policies.

Certain events or conditions could diminish our agents’ desire to produce business for us and the competitive advantage that our independent agents enjoy, including:

•Downgrade of the financial strength ratings of our insurance subsidiaries. We believe our strong insurer financial strength ratings, in particular, the A+ (Superior) ratings from A.M. Best for our standard market property casualty insurance group and each subsidiary in that group, are an important competitive advantage. See Item 1, Our Business and Our Strategy, Financial Strength, for additional discussion of our financial strength ratings.

•Concerns that doing business with us is difficult or not profitable, perceptions that our level of service is no longer a distinguishing characteristic in the marketplace, perceptions that our products do not meet the needs of our agents’ clients or perceptions that our business practices are not compatible with agents’ business models.

•Mergers and acquisitions could result in a concentration of a significant amount of premium in one agency.

•Delays in the development, implementation, performance and benefits of technology systems and enhancements or independent agent perceptions that our technology solutions do not match their needs.

A reduction in the number of independent agencies marketing our products, the failure of agencies to successfully market our products or pay amounts due to us, changes in the strategy or operations of agencies or the choice of agencies to reduce their writings of our products could affect our results of operations if we were unable to replace them with agencies that produce adequate and profitable premiums.

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Further, policyholders may choose a competitor’s product rather than our own because of real or perceived differences in price, terms and conditions, coverage or service. If the quality of the independent agencies with which we do business were to decline, that also might cause policyholders to purchase their insurance through different agencies or channels. Consumers, especially in the personal insurance industry segment, may increasingly choose to purchase insurance from distribution channels other than independent insurance agents, such as direct marketers. Increased advertising by insurers, especially direct marketers, could cause consumers to shift their buying habits, bypassing independent agents altogether. Innovation, new or changing technologies and/or buying trends or consumer preferences could reduce or eliminate the need or demand for products we sell.

Premium revenues and underwriting profit could also be adversely affected by marked or prolonged economic downturns or other events. Economic events experienced during 2022 included elevated inflation, global supply chain disruptions, increasing interest rates, tightening credit markets and higher fuel costs.

Our credit ratings or financial strength ratings of our insurance subsidiaries could be downgraded.

A downgrade in one or more of our company’s credit or debt ratings could adversely impact our borrowing costs or limit our access to capital. Financial strength ratings reflect a rating agency’s opinion of our insurance subsidiaries’ financial strength, operating performance, strategic position and ability to meet obligations to policyholders. Our ratings are subject to periodic review and there is no assurance that our ratings will not be changed. Rating agencies could change or expand their requirements or could find that our insurance subsidiaries no longer meet the criteria established for current ratings. If our property casualty or life insurance subsidiary insurer financial strength ratings were to be downgraded, our agents might find it more difficult to market our products or might choose to emphasize the products of other carriers.

We could experience an unusually high level of losses due to natural or man-made catastrophe, terrorism or epidemic events or risk concentrations.

Our insurance operations expose us to claims arising out of catastrophes. Catastrophes can be man-made or caused by natural perils. Man-made catastrophes to which we may be exposed include, but are not limited to, industrial accidents, terrorist attacks, cyberattacks, infrastructure failures, social unrest and riot. Other man-made events, such as hydraulic fracturing, could cause damage from earth movement or create environmental and/or health hazards. Natural peril catastrophe events to which we may be exposed include, but are not limited to, hurricanes, tornadoes, windstorms, earthquakes, landslides, hailstorms, flooding, severe winter weather and wildfires. Due to the nature of these events, we are unable to predict precisely the frequency or potential cost of catastrophe occurrences.

The extent of losses from a catastrophe is a function of both the total amount of insured and reinsured exposure in the area affected by the event and the severity of the event. Our ability to appropriately manage catastrophe risk depends partially on catastrophe models, which may be affected by inaccurate or incomplete data, the uncertainty of the frequency and severity of future events and the uncertain impact of climate change. Additionally, these models are recalibrated and changed over time, with more data availability and changing opinions regarding the effect of current or emerging loss patterns and conditions.

According to these models, probable maximum loss estimates from a single hurricane event that combine the effects of property casualty insurance written on a direct basis by The Cincinnati Insurance Companies, the Cincinnati Re reinsurance portfolio and risks insured by Cincinnati Global include the following amounts, net of amounts recoverable through reinsurance ceded and also income taxes, and including the effects of estimated reinstatement premiums: $540 million for a once-in-a-100-year event and $798 million for a once-in-a-250-year event. Please see Item 7, Liquidity and Capital Resources, 2023 Reinsurance Programs, for a discussion of modeled losses considered in evaluating our risk mitigation strategy, which includes our ceded reinsurance program.

The geographic regions in which we market insurance and reinsurance are exposed to numerous natural catastrophes, such as:

•Hurricanes in the gulf, eastern, southeastern and northeastern coastal regions.

•Earthquakes in many regions, most particularly in the New Madrid fault zone, California, the Northwest and Southwest.

•Tornadoes, wind and hail.

•Wildfires.

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•Winter storms.

•On a worldwide basis, in the event of a severe catastrophic event or terrorist attack we may be exposed to material losses through our Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global operations.

The occurrence of terrorist attacks in the geographic areas we serve could result in substantially higher claims under our insurance policies than we have anticipated. Our insurance policies provide coverage for terrorism risk in all areas we serve, including Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities. We have exposure to small co-op utilities, water utilities, wholesale fuel distributors, small shopping malls and small colleges throughout our 46 active states and, because of the number of associates located there, our Fairfield, Ohio, headquarters. Additionally, our life insurance subsidiary could be adversely affected in the event of a terrorist event or an epidemic, particularly if the epidemic were to affect a broad range of the population, or affects the overall economy. Our associate health plan is self-funded and could similarly be affected.

Our results of operations would be adversely affected if the level of losses we experience over a period of time were to exceed our actuarially determined expectations. In addition, our financial condition may be adversely affected if we were required to sell securities prior to maturity or at unfavorable prices to pay an unusually high level of loss and loss expenses. Securities pricing might be even less favorable if a number of insurance or other companies and other investors needed to sell securities during a short period of time because of unusually high losses from catastrophic events.

Our geographic concentration links our performance to business, economic, environmental and regulatory conditions in certain states. We market our standard market property casualty insurance products in 46 states, but our business is concentrated in the Midwest and Southeast. We also have exposure in states where we do not actively market insurance when clients of our independent agencies have businesses or properties in multiple states or we provide insurance through Cincinnati Global and reinsurance through Cincinnati Re.

The Cincinnati Insurance Company continues to expand its Cincinnati Re reinsurance assumed operations and has staffed it with seasoned underwriting and analytical associates who strive to assume risks that we understand, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Business written includes treaties that provide coverage for property catastrophe and terrorism events on a worldwide basis. Based on treaties in effect at January 1, 2023, the largest loss exposure to us for Cincinnati Re is from natural catastrophe events. That exposure includes probable maximum loss estimates, on a marginal basis, of the following amounts: $167 million for a once-in-a-100-year event and $198 million for a once-in-a-250-year event. Those effects represent a single hurricane event and include the effects of income taxes, estimated reinstatement premiums and applicable reinsurance ceded, including any retrocessions for reinsurance assumed, and estimated reinstatement premiums. They are based on probable maximum loss estimates from the Applied Insurance Research Touchstone® version 10.0 catastrophe model. The marginal basis reflects diversification effects of the Cincinnati Re reinsurance portfolio and property casualty insurance written on a direct basis by The Cincinnati Insurance Companies. Ignoring diversification effects provided by those two components, on a standalone basis, probable maximum loss estimates for Cincinnati Re include the following amounts: $204 million for a once-in-a-100-year event and $244 million for a once-in-a-250-year event. If there is a high frequency of large property catastrophe or terrorism events, or a single extreme event, during the coverage period of these treaties, our financial position and results of operations could be materially affected.

Given its seasoned underwriting associates, we are also expanding Cincinnati Global, our global specialty underwriter with premiums primarily for U.S. and international property exposures. Cincinnati Global also writes North American and United Kingdom (U.K.) contingency and event cancellation coverage and worldwide credit and political risk coverage and political violence coverage. At January 1, 2023, the largest loss exposure to us for Cincinnati Global is from natural catastrophe events. Cincinnati Global's exposure from such events includes probable maximum loss estimates of the following amounts: $71 million for a once-in-a-100-year event and $106 million for a once-in-a-250-year event. Those effects are on a standalone basis and represent a single hurricane event and include the effects of income taxes, applicable reinsurance ceded and estimated reinstatement premiums. They are based on probable maximum loss estimates from the Applied Insurance Research Touchstone version 10.0 catastrophe model. If there is a high frequency of large property catastrophe or terrorism events, or a single extreme event, during the coverage period of its policies, our financial position and results of operations could be materially affected.

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Additionally, the companies we invest in might be severely affected by a severe catastrophic event, terrorist attack, or epidemic event which could affect our financial condition and results of operations. Our reinsurers might experience significant losses, potentially jeopardizing their ability to pay losses we cede to them. It could also reduce the availability of reinsurance. If we cannot obtain adequate reinsurance or primary insurance coverage at a reasonable cost, it could constrain where we can write business or reduce the amount of business we can write in certain areas. We also may be exposed to state guaranty fund assessments if other carriers in a state cannot meet their obligations to policyholders. A catastrophe or epidemic event also could affect our operations by damaging our headquarters facility, injuring associates and visitors at our Fairfield, Ohio, headquarters or disrupting our associates’ ability to perform their assigned tasks.

Climate change may adversely impact our results of operations and/or our financial position.

Global climate change from rising planet temperatures over the last several decades has been linked to a number of factors that contribute to the increased unpredictability, frequency, duration and severity of weather events, including: changing weather patterns, a rise in ocean temperatures and sea level rise. Further increases or persistence in these conditions would lead to higher overall losses, which we may not be able to recoup, particularly in a highly regulated and competitive environment, and higher reinsurance costs. Certain catastrophe models assume an increase in frequency and severity of certain weather or other events, which could result in a disproportionate impact on insurers with certain geographic concentrations of risk. This would also likely increase the risks of writing property insurance in coastal areas or areas susceptible to wildfires or flooding, particularly in jurisdictions that restrict pricing and underwriting flexibility. The threat of rising seas or other catastrophe losses as a result of global climate change may also cause property values in coastal or such other communities to decrease, reducing the total amount of insurance coverage that is required.

The outbreak of COVID-19 could result in an unusually high level of losses.

In March 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19, also known as the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, was recognized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization. The outbreak was widespread in the United States, including in the markets in which we operate. Like many companies in the property casualty insurance industry, our property casualty subsidiaries were named as defendants in lawsuits seeking insurance coverage under commercial property insurance policies issued by the company for alleged losses resulting from the shutdown or suspension of their businesses due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Risks to our business include legislation or court decisions that extend business interruption insurance in commercial property coverage forms to cover claims for pure economic loss related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Legislative initiatives and pending litigation are ongoing in numerous jurisdictions, and we cannot provide assurance that we will not be impacted by adverse legislation or adverse judicial rulings in certain of these jurisdictions. These actions seek to extend coverage beyond the terms and conditions we intended for those policies, including policies that do not contain specific virus exclusions. Therefore we could be forced to pay claims when no coverage was contemplated and for which no premium was collected. If these actions are successful, the aggregate amount of these claims could have a material, adverse impact on our business, financial condition, reputation, results of operations and cash flows.

Our net losses and loss adjustment expenses are estimates and actual net losses could be higher.

Our estimates for COVID-19 losses and loss adjustment expenses represent our best estimates as of December 31, 2022, based upon information currently available. These estimates are based on reported claims, policy level reviews and recent judicial rulings. However, assumptions about coverage, liability and reinsurance continue to be subject to on-going judicial review and may be subject to further government action. While we believe our net reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses for COVID-19 as of December 31, 2022, are adequate based on information available at this time, we continue to closely monitor reported claims, government actions, judicial decisions and changes in the levels of worldwide social disruption and economic activity arising from the pandemic and will adjust our estimates of gross and net losses as new information becomes available. Factors that affect our estimates of losses and loss adjustment expenses or our ability to reasonably estimate such losses include the number of policyholders that will ultimately submit claims or file lawsuits; the lack of submitted proofs of loss for allegedly covered claims; judicial rulings in similar litigation involving other companies in the insurance industry; difference in state law and developing case law; litigation trends, including varying legal theories advanced by policyholders; whether and to what degree any class of policyholders may be certified; and the inherent unpredictability of litigation. Such adjustments to our reserves for COVID-19 losses and loss adjustment expenses may be material to our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.

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Our ability to properly underwrite and price risks and increased competition could adversely affect our results.

Our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows depend on our ability to underwrite and set rates accurately for a full spectrum of risks. We establish our pricing based on assumptions about the level of losses that may occur within classes of business, geographic regions and other criteria.

To properly price our products, we must collect, properly analyze and use data to make decisions and take appropriate action; the data must be sufficient, reliable and accessible; Cincinnati Global has risks due to its reliance on coverholders in underwriting parts of its business; we need to develop appropriate rating methodologies and formulae; and we may need to identify and respond to trends quickly. We may overestimate or underestimate loss cost trends or these trends may unexpectedly change, leading to losing business by pricing risks above our competitors or charging rates too low to maintain profitability. Inflation trends, especially outside of historical norms, such as we experienced during 2022, may make it more difficult to determine adequate pricing. If rates are not accurate, we may not generate enough premiums to offset losses and expenses, or we may not be competitive in the marketplace.

Our ability to set appropriate rates could be hampered if states where we write business refuse to allow rate increases that we believe are necessary to cover the risks insured. A state could also hamper our ability to set appropriate rates if it no longer allowed us to use factors that we believe are predictive of loss, such as credit-based factors. Multiple states require us to purchase reinsurance from a mandatory reinsurance fund. Such reinsurance funds can create a credit risk for insurers if not adequately funded by the state and, in some cases, the existence of a reinsurance fund could affect the prices charged for our policies. The effect of these and similar arrangements could reduce our profitability in any given period or limit our ability to grow our business.

The insurance industry is cyclical and intensely competitive. From time to time, the industry goes through prolonged periods of intense competition during which it is more difficult to attract new business, retain existing business and maintain profitability. Competition in our insurance business is based on many factors, including:

•Competitiveness of premiums charged

•Relationships among carriers, agents, brokers and policyholders

•Underwriting and pricing methodologies that allow insurers to identify and appropriately price risks

•Compensation provided to agents

•Underwriting discipline

•Terms and conditions of insurance coverage

•Speed with which products are brought to market

•Product and marketing innovations, including advertising

•Technological competence and innovation

•Ability to control expenses

•Adequacy of financial strength ratings by independent rating agencies such as A.M. Best

•Quality of services and tools provided to agents and policyholders

•Claims satisfaction and reputation

We compete with major U.S., Bermudian, European, and other international insurers and reinsurers and with underwriting syndicates, some of which have greater financial, marketing and management resources than we do. Recent industry consolidation, including business combinations among insurance and other financial services companies, has resulted in larger competitors with even greater financial resources. We also compete with new companies that continue to enter the insurance and reinsurance markets. In addition, capital market participants have created alternative products that are intended to compete with reinsurance products that we sell through Cincinnati Re. Increased competition could result in fewer submissions, lower premium rates, and less favorable policy terms and conditions, which could reduce our underwriting margins and have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.

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If our pricing was incorrect or we were unable to compete effectively because of one or more of these factors, our premium writings could decline and our results of operations and financial condition could be materially adversely affected. Large competitors could intentionally disrupt the market by targeting certain lines or underpricing the market.

Please see the discussion of our Commercial Lines, Personal Lines, Excess and Surplus Lines and Life Insurance Segments in Item 1, Our Segments, for a discussion of our competitive position in the insurance marketplace.

Our pricing and capital models could be flawed.

We use various actuarial pricing methods, predictive pricing and underwriting models, stochastic models and/or forecasting techniques to help us understand our business, analyze risk and estimate future trends. The output of these techniques and models is used to assist us in making underwriting, pricing, reinsurance, reserving and capital decisions and helps us set our strategic direction. These models contain numerous assumptions, including the assumption that the data used is sufficient and accurate. They are also subject to uncertainties and limitations inherent in any statistical analysis. Actual results may be materially different from modeled output, resulting in pricing our products incorrectly, overestimating or underestimating reserves, or inaccurately forecasting the impact of modeled events on our results. This could materially adversely impact the results of our operations.

Our loss reserves, our largest liability, are based on estimates and could be inadequate to cover our actual losses.

Our consolidated financial statements are prepared using GAAP. These principles require us to make estimates and assumptions that affect the amounts reported in the Consolidated Financial Statements and accompanying Notes. Actual results could differ materially from those estimates. For a discussion of the significant accounting policies we use to prepare our financial statements, the material implications of uncertainties associated with the methods, assumptions and estimates underlying our critical accounting policies and the process used to determine our loss reserves, please refer to Item 8, Note 1 of the Consolidated Financial Statements, and Item 7, Critical Accounting Estimates, Property Casualty Insurance Loss and Loss Expense Reserves and Life Insurance Policy Reserves.

Our most critical accounting estimate is loss reserves. Loss reserves are the amounts we expect to pay for covered claims and expenses we incur to settle those claims. The loss reserves we establish in our financial statements represent an estimate of amounts needed to pay and administer claims arising from insured events that have already occurred, including events that have not yet been reported to us. Loss reserves are estimates and are inherently uncertain; they do not and cannot represent an exact measure of liability. Inflationary scenarios, especially scenarios outside of historical norms or regulatory changes that affect the assumptions underlying our critical accounting estimates, may make it more difficult to estimate loss reserves. Accordingly, our loss reserves for past periods could prove to be inadequate to cover our actual losses and related expenses. Any changes in these estimates are reflected in our results of operations during the period in which the changes are made. An increase in our loss reserves would decrease earnings, while a decrease in our loss reserves would increase earnings.

Unforeseen losses, or unintended coverages, the type and magnitude of which we cannot predict, may emerge. These additional losses could arise from changes in the legal environment, laws and regulations, climate change, catastrophic events, increases in loss severity or frequency, environmental claims, mass torts or other causes such as social inflation. Such future losses could be substantial. Inflationary scenarios may cause the cost of claims, especially medical claims, to rise, impacting reserve adequacy and our results of operations.

Our life policy reserves are also subject to uncertainty. Periods of higher death claims outside of long-term historical norms, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, and not anticipated within our actuarial models could make our life policy reserves inadequate to cover actual future death claims. Increases in estimates of future death claims would increase life policy reserve levels and in turn decrease earnings.

In addition to the risks stated above, Cincinnati Re reserves are subject to uncertainty because a reinsurer relies on the original underwriting decisions and claims reserving practices of ceding companies. As a result, we are subject to the risk that our ceding companies may not have adequately evaluated the risks reinsured by us and the premiums ceded may not adequately compensate us for the risks we assume. In addition, there is generally a longer lapse of time from the occurrence of the event to the reporting of the loss or benefit to the reinsurer and ultimate resolution or settlement of the loss. Similar risks exist for Cincinnati Global due to potential delays in loss reporting.

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Because of the inherent uncertainties involved in setting reserves, we cannot provide assurance that our existing reserves or future reserves will prove adequate in light of subsequent events. Our results of operations and financial condition have in the past been, and in the future could be, materially affected by adverse loss development for events that we insured in prior periods.

International operations subject us to additional regulation and expose us to additional investment, political and economic risks.

We have international operations that expose us to a number of additional risks. These risks include restrictions such as price controls, capital controls, currency exchange limits, ownership limits and other restrictive or anti-competitive governmental actions or requirements, which could have an adverse effect on our business and reputation. Our business activities outside the United States, including the U.K., subject us to political and economic risks, including foreign currency and credit risk. Additionally, Cincinnati Global’s operations will expand the products offered by us and could expose us to additional regulation or other risks.

Business activities outside the United States will subject us to additional domestic and foreign laws and regulations, including the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, the U.K. Bribery Act and similar laws in other countries that prohibit the making of improper payments to foreign officials. In addition, insurers in the U.K. (including managing agents and members of Lloyd’s of London) are subject to Solvency II and the U.K. regulatory regime, which itself includes rules promulgated by Lloyd's. Although we have policies and controls in place that are designed to ensure compliance with these laws and regulatory requirements, if those controls are ineffective and an employee or intermediary fails to comply with applicable laws and regulations, we could suffer civil and criminal penalties and our business and reputation could be adversely affected. Some countries have laws and regulations that lack clarity and, even with local expertise and effective controls, it can be difficult to determine the exact requirements of, and potential liability under, the local laws. Failure to comply with local laws in a particular market may result in substantial liability and could have a significant and negative effect not only on our business in that market but also on our reputation generally.

Business activities at Cincinnati Global are subject to Lloyd's approval of a business plan each year. There is risk that Cincinnati Global's plan will not be approved or will be limited. As a Lloyd’s managing agent and syndicate, Cincinnati Global is exposed to various risks and their associated uncertainties, including Lloyd’s rating agency ratings, reputation, and Cincinnati Global’s obligation to maintain funds at Lloyd’s to support its underwriting activities and periodic assessment of its capital, governance and other aspects of its business.

Developments relating to the Russian war against Ukraine could adversely affect our insurance operations or other financial matters.

We have limited direct exposure within our insurance operations to businesses or individuals in Russia or the Ukraine reported in our consolidated property casualty insurance catastrophe losses and loss expenses incurred, net of reinsurance. We do not have material exposure to investments subject to embargos or Russian reinsurance counterparties. However, the ongoing Russian war against Ukraine is impacting global economic, banking, commodity, and financial markets, exacerbating ongoing economic challenges, including inflation and supply chain disruption, which impacts insurance loss costs, premiums and investment valuation.

Developments relating to the United Kingdom leaving the European Union could adversely affect Cincinnati Global’s operations.

The terms of the U.K.’s withdrawal from the European Union (Brexit) and the relationship between the U.K. and the European Union going forward can affect economic conditions, including the terms of trade between them. The ultimate impact of Brexit is uncertain and will depend on any agreements that the U.K. makes to retain access to European Union markets. Brexit could also lead to legal uncertainty and potentially divergent national laws and regulations as the U.K. determines which European Union laws to replace or replicate. These or other adverse consequences from Brexit could adversely affect the operations and business opportunities of Cincinnati Global.

With a view to mitigating the potential effects of Brexit on business underwritten through it, Lloyd’s has set up an insurance company subsidiary in Belgium, Lloyd's Europe, underwriting European Economic Area insurance business via that subsidiary.

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Our ability to obtain or collect on our reinsurance protection could affect our business, financial condition, results of operations or cash flows.

We buy property casualty and life reinsurance coverage to mitigate the liquidity risk and earnings volatility risk of an unexpected rise in claims severity or frequency from catastrophic events or a single large loss. The availability, amount and cost of reinsurance depend on market conditions and may vary significantly. If we were unable to obtain reinsurance on acceptable terms and in appropriate amounts, our business and financial condition could be adversely affected.

In addition, we are subject to credit risk with respect to our reinsurers. Although we purchase reinsurance to manage our risks and exposures to losses, this reinsurance does not discharge our direct obligations under the policies we write. We would remain liable to our policyholders even if we were unable to recover what we believe we are entitled to receive under our reinsurance contracts. Reinsurers might refuse or fail to pay losses that we cede to them, or they might delay payment. For long-tail claims, the creditworthiness of our reinsurers may change before we can recover amounts to which we are entitled. A reinsurer’s insolvency, inability or unwillingness to make payments under the terms of its reinsurance agreement with our insurance subsidiaries could have a material adverse effect on our financial position, results of operations or cash flows.

Please see Item 7, Liquidity and Capital Resources, 2023 Reinsurance Ceded Programs, for a discussion of selected reinsurance transactions.

Risks related to investments or other financial matters

Financial disruption or a prolonged economic downturn could materially and adversely affect our investment performance.

Recent events, including the outbreak of COVID-19, global supply chain disruptions, increasing interest rate environment and inflationary pressures, have contributed to significant disruption and volatility for financial markets and decreased economic activity. Many companies experienced uncertainty and reduced liquidity. In the event that these conditions continue or result in a prolonged economic downturn or recession, they could further adversely impact our financial condition, results of operations or cash flows. Such adverse impacts may be material. These market conditions could also cause our investment income or the value of securities we own to decrease.

Our ability to achieve our performance objectives could be affected by changes in the financial, credit and capital markets or the general economy.

We invest premiums received from policyholders and other available cash to generate investment income and capital appreciation, while also maintaining sufficient liquidity to pay covered claims and operating expenses, service our debt obligations and pay dividends. The value of our invested assets is an important component of shareholders’ equity, also known as book value. Changes in the valuation of invested assets can significantly affect changes in book value per share, a key performance objective as discussed in Item 7, Executive Summary of Management’s Discussion and Analysis.

For fixed-maturity investments such as bonds, which represented 55.2% of the fair value of our investment portfolio at the end of 2022, the inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices leads to falling bond values during periods of increasing interest rates. Significant increases in the general level of interest rates, such as we experienced during 2022, could have an adverse effect on our shareholders’ equity.

Investment income is an important component of our revenues and net income. The ability to increase investment income and generate longer-term growth in book value is affected by factors beyond our control, such as: inflation, economic growth, interest rates, world political conditions, changes in laws and regulations, epidemic events, terrorism attacks or threats, adverse events affecting other companies in our industry or the industries in which we invest, market events leading to credit constriction, and other widespread unpredictable events. These events have in the past and may in the future adversely affect the economy generally and cause our investment income or the value of securities we own to decrease. Any significant decline in our investment income will have an adverse effect on our net income, and thereby on our shareholders’ equity and our statutory capital and surplus. For a more detailed discussion of risks associated with our investments, please refer to Item 7A, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.

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We have issued life contracts with guaranteed minimum returns, referred to as bank-owned life insurance contracts (BOLIs). BOLI investment assets must meet certain criteria established by the regulatory authorities in the jurisdiction for which the group contract holder is subject. Therefore, sales of investments may be mandated to maintain compliance with these regulations, possibly requiring gains or losses to be recorded. We could experience losses if the assets in the accounts were less than liabilities at the time of maturity or termination.

We also have life policy reserves established for traditional life policies including term, whole and other products. Reserve variability could increase with the adoption of ASU 2018-12 as discussed in Item 8, Note 1 of the Consolidated Financial Statements, as reserves are based on certain cash flow assumptions as well as a discount rate assumption. This discount rate assumption is based on updated market value discount rates. Life policy reserves are required to be remeasured using an updated discount rate assumption quarterly. Remeasurement adjustments for the updated discount rate are recorded as an increase or decrease to life policy reserves with an offsetting increase or decrease to accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI). As the discount rate increases during the quarter, life policy reserves decrease and AOCI increases. Conversely, as the discount rate decreases during the quarter, life policy reserves increase and AOCI decreases. A significant decrease in discount rates, relative to the prior quarter, could have an adverse effect on shareholders' equity.

Our investment performance also could suffer because of the types of investments, industry groups and/or individual securities in which we choose to invest. Market value changes related to these choices could cause a material change in our financial condition or results of operations.

At year-end 2022, common stock holdings made up 43.0% of our investment portfolio. Adverse news or events affecting the global or U.S. economy or the equity markets, such as we experienced during 2022, could affect our net income, book value and overall results, as well as our ability to pay our common stock dividend. See Item 7, Investments Results, and Item 7A, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk, for a discussion of our investment activities.

Deterioration in the banking sector or in banks with which we have relationships could affect our results of operations. Our ability to maintain or obtain short-term lines of credit could be affected if the banks from which we obtain these lines are acquired, fail or are otherwise negatively affected. We may lose premium revenue if a bank that owns appointed agencies were to change its strategies. We could experience increased losses in our director and officer liability line of business if claims were made against insured financial institutions.

A deterioration of credit and market conditions could also impair our ability to access credit markets and could affect existing or future lending arrangements.

Our overall results could be affected if a significant portion of our commercial lines or personal lines policyholders are adversely affected by marked or prolonged economic downturns and events such as a downturn in construction and related sectors, tightening credit markets and higher fuel costs experienced during 2022. Such events could make it more difficult for policyholders to finance new projects, complete projects or expand their businesses, leading to lower premiums from reduced payrolls and sales and lower purchases of equipment and vehicles. These events could also cause claims, including surety claims, to increase due to a policyholder’s inability to secure necessary financing to complete projects or to collect on underlying lines of credit in the claims process. Such economic downturns and events could have a greater impact in the construction sector where we have a concentration of risks and in geographic areas that are hardest hit by economic downturns.

Deteriorating economic conditions could also increase the degree of credit risk associated with amounts due from independent agents who collect premiums for payment to us and could hamper our ability to recover amounts due from reinsurers.

Our status as an insurance holding company with no direct operations could affect our ability to pay dividends in the future.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation is a holding company that transacts substantially all of its business through its subsidiaries. Our primary assets are the stock in our operating subsidiaries and our investments. Consequently, our cash flow to pay cash dividends and interest on our long-term debt depends on dividends we receive from our operating subsidiaries and income earned on investments held at the parent-company level.

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Dividends received from our lead insurance subsidiary are restricted by the insurance laws of Ohio, its domiciliary state. These laws establish minimum solvency and liquidity thresholds and limits. In 2023, the maximum dividend that may be paid without prior regulatory approval is limited to the greater of 10% of statutory capital and surplus or 100% of statutory net income for the prior calendar year, up to the amount of statutory unassigned capital and surplus as of the end of the prior calendar year. Dividends exceeding these limitations may be paid only with prior approval of the Ohio Department of Insurance. We might not be able to receive dividends from our insurance subsidiaries, or we might not receive dividends in the amounts necessary to meet our debt obligations or to pay dividends on our common stock without liquidating securities. This could affect our financial position.

Please see Item 1, Regulation, and Item 8, Note 9 of the Consolidated Financial Statements, for a discussion of insurance holding company dividend regulations.

General risk factors

Elevated inflation may negatively impact profit and the value of investments.

Inflation in various forms, such as we experienced in 2022, can reduce underwriting profitability due to higher losses and loss expenses to repair damaged autos or other property that we insure. Elevated inflation can also be in the form of social inflation of litigation costs, jury awards and settlement expectations. In addition to potential adverse effects on the fair value of our equity portfolio, inflationary pressures can also cause or contribute to, or are the result of, increases in interest rates, which would reduce the fair value of our fixed-maturity portfolio.

Our business depends on the uninterrupted operation of our facilities, systems and business functions.

Our business depends on our associates’ ability to perform necessary business functions, such as processing new and renewal policies and handling claims. We increasingly rely on technology and systems to accomplish these business functions in an efficient and uninterrupted fashion. Our inability to access our headquarters facilities for certain critical functions or a failure of technology, telecommunications or other systems or the loss or failure of services provided by key vendors, could significantly impair our ability to perform such functions on a timely basis or affect the accuracy of transactions. If sustained or repeated, such a business interruption or system failure could result in a deterioration of our ability to write and process new and renewal business, serve our agents and policyholders, pay claims in a timely manner, collect receivables or perform other necessary business functions. If our disaster recovery and business continuity plans did not sufficiently consider, address or reverse the circumstances of an interruption or failure, this could result in a materially adverse effect on our operating results and financial condition.

Our ability to successfully execute business functions also depends on hiring and retaining the qualified associates we employ. Competition for high-quality executives and other key associates occurs within the insurance industry and from other industries. We also must effectively develop and manage associates, including providing training and resources. Such tools and information can allow them to effectively perform critical business functions and adapt to changing business needs. During some periods, such as we experienced in 2022, labor markets are tight and there is intense competition for associates qualified to execute important business functions. Many markets in which we operate are experiencing a low unemployment rate and labor shortages are affecting many industries. If we were unable to attract and retain certain associates, or if we fail to provide adequate training or resources, or fail to provide a work environment that is attractive to associates, we could limit the success of executing our strategic plans and vital business functions.

The effects of changes in industry practices, laws and regulations on our business are uncertain.

As industry practices and legal, judicial, legislative, regulatory, political, social and other environmental conditions change, unexpected and unintended issues related to insurance pricing, claims and coverage emerge. These issues may adversely affect our business by impeding our ability to obtain adequate rates for covered risks or otherwise extending coverage beyond our underwriting intent, by increasing the number or size of claims, by varying assumptions underlying our critical accounting estimates or by increasing duties owed to policyholders beyond contractual obligations. In some instances, unforeseeable emerging and latent claim and coverage issues and court decisions or legislative changes may not become apparent until sometime after we have issued the insurance policies that could be affected by the changes. As a result, the full extent of liability under our insurance contracts may not be known for many years after a policy is issued and our pricing and reserve estimates may not accurately reflect its effect.

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We are required to adopt new or revised accounting standards issued by recognized authoritative organizations, including the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) and the SEC. Future changes required to be adopted could change the current accounting treatment that we apply and could result in material adverse effects on our results of operations, financial position or cash flows.

Our investment income benefits from tax rate preferences for municipal bond interest and dividend income from equity securities. Market valuations for these securities also benefit from the tax-preference aspect of current tax laws, affecting the value of our investment portfolio and also shareholders’ equity. Future changes in tax laws, or other changes such as regulations for applicability of alternative minimum taxes, could result in material adverse effects on our results of operations and financial condition.

The NAIC, state insurance regulators and state legislators continually re-examine existing laws and regulations governing insurance companies and insurance holding companies, specifically focusing on modifications to statutory accounting principles, interpretations of existing laws, regulations relating to product forms and pricing methodologies and the development of new laws and regulations that affect a variety of financial and nonfinancial components of our business. Any proposed or future legislation, regulation or NAIC initiatives, if adopted, may be more restrictive on our ability to conduct business than current regulatory requirements or may result in higher costs. The loss or significant restriction on the use of a particular variable, such as credit, in pricing and underwriting our products could lead to future unprofitability and increased costs.

Federal laws and regulations and the influence of international laws and regulations, including those that may be enacted in the wake of the financial and credit crises, may have adverse effects on our business, potentially including a change from a state-based system of regulation to a system of federal regulation, the repeal of the McCarran Ferguson Act, and/or measures under the Dodd-Frank Act that establish the Federal Insurance Office and provide for a determination that a nonbank financial company presents systemic risk and therefore should be subject to heightened supervision by the Federal Reserve Board. It is not known how this federal office will coordinate and interact with the NAIC and state insurance regulators. Adoption or implementation of any of these measures may restrict our ability to conduct our insurance business, govern our corporate affairs or increase our cost of doing business.

In addition, global climate change and global climate change transitions could lead to new or enhanced regulation, which may be difficult or costly to comply with, or impact assets that we invest in, which may result in realized and unrealized losses in future periods that could have a material adverse impact on our results of operations and/or financial position. It is not possible to foresee the impacts of potential future climate regulation, or which, if any, assets, industries or markets may be materially and adversely affected by global climate change and global climate change transitions, nor is it possible to foresee the magnitude of such effects.

The effects of such changes could adversely affect our results of operations. Please see Item 7, Critical Accounting Estimates, Property Casualty Insurance Loss and Loss Expense Reserves and Life Insurance Policy Reserves, for a discussion of our reserving practices.

Managing technology initiatives and meeting data security requirements are significant challenges.

We use technology to process, store, retrieve, evaluate and use customer and company data and information. Our information technology and telecommunications systems, in turn, interface with and rely upon third-party systems. We must be able to access our systems to provide insurance quotes, process premium payments, make changes to existing policies, file and pay claims, provide customer support, manage our investment portfolios, report on financial results and perform other necessary business functions. Systems failures or outages could compromise our ability to perform these business functions in a timely manner, which could harm our ability to conduct business and hurt our relationships with our business partners and customers. In the event of a disaster such as a natural catastrophe, a pandemic, civil unrest, an industrial accident, a cyberattack, a blackout, a terrorist attack (including conventional, nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological) or war, systems upon which we rely may be inaccessible to our associates or independent agents for an extended period of time. Even if our associates and independent agents are able to report to work, they may be unable to perform their duties for an extended period of time if our data or systems used to conduct our business are disabled or destroyed. While technology can streamline many business processes and ultimately reduce the costs of operations, technology initiatives present short-term cost and also have implementation and operational risks. In addition, we may have inaccurate expense projections, implementation schedules or expectations regarding the effectiveness and user acceptance of the end product.

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These issues could escalate over time. If we were unable to find and retain associates with key technical knowledge, our ability to develop and deploy key technology solutions could be hampered.

Our systems have been, and will likely continue to be, subject to viruses or other malicious code, unauthorized access, cyber attacks, cyber frauds or other computer-related penetrations. While we take commercially reasonable measures to keep our systems and data secure, it is difficult or impossible to defend against every risk being posed by changing technologies as well as criminal and state-sponsored cybercrime and cyber threats. While we are not aware of having experienced a material breach of our cybersecurity systems, administrative, internal accounting and technical controls as well as other preventative actions may be insufficient to prevent security breaches to our systems or those of third parties with whom we do business. Increasing sophistication of cyber criminals and terrorists make keeping up with new threats difficult and could result in a breach. Patching and other measures to protect existing systems and servers could be inadequate, especially on systems that are being retired. Controls employed by our U.S., off-shore and cloud vendors could prove inadequate. We could also experience a breach by intentional or negligent conduct on the part of associates or other internal sources. Our systems and those of our third-party vendors may become vulnerable to damage or disruption due to circumstances beyond our or their control, such as from catastrophic events, power anomalies or outages, natural disasters, network failures, and viruses, ransomware and malware.

A breach of our security or the security of a vendor that results in unauthorized access to our data could expose us to a disruption or challenges relating to our daily operations as well as to data loss, litigation, damages, fines and penalties, significant increases in compliance costs and reputational damage. From time to time we have had to, and in the future we may need to, increase or expend resources to investigate or remediate vulnerabilities as a result of data security incidents. Such resources are costly in time and expense, and detract from resources spent on or are otherwise devoted to our core operations. In addition, depending on the nature of an incident, we may not be able to detect an incident readily, assess its severity or impact, or appropriately respond in a timely manner, which could increase our risk and exposures.

Any failure to protect the confidentiality of customer information could adversely affect our reputation or expose us to fines, penalties or litigation, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

We necessarily collect, use and hold data concerning individuals and businesses with whom we have a relationship. We are required to safeguard the confidential personal information of our customers and applicants. We are subject to an increasing number of federal, state, local and international laws and regulations regarding privacy and data security, as well as contractual commitments. These laws and regulations are rapidly evolving, complex, vary significantly from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, and sometimes conflict. In the absence of updated, uniform federal privacy legislation, there is a growing trend in the states in which we operate, to adopt comprehensive privacy legislation that provides consumers with various privacy rights and imposes significant compliance burdens on covered companies. Failure to comply with data security or privacy laws or regulations could subject us to regulatory enforcement actions and fines, penalties, litigation, private rights of action or public statements against us by consumer advocacy groups or others if confidential customer information is misappropriated from our computer systems, those of our vendors or others with whom we do business, or otherwise. Despite the security measures that may be in place, any such systems may be vulnerable to the types of attacks and security incidents described above. Any well-publicized compromise of security could deter people from entering into transactions that involve transmitting confidential information, impart reputational or other harm, and/or have a material adverse effect on our business. Additionally, privacy legislation may make our business partners more reluctant to share information with us that is useful in conducting our business.

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