AXP, §1A diff (2017 → 2018)

ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS This section highlights specific risks that could affect us and our businesses. You should carefully consider each of the following risks and all of the other information set forth in this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Based on the information currently known to us, we believe the following information identifies the most significant risk factors affecting us. However, the risks and uncertainties we face are not limited to those described below. Additional risks and uncertainties not presently known to us or that we currently believe to be immaterial may also adversely affect our business. If any of the following risks and uncertainties develop into actual events or if the circumstances described in the risks and uncertainties occur or continue to occur, these events or circumstances could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations. These events could also have a negative effect on the trading price of our securities. Strategic, Business and Competitive Risks Difficult conditions in the business and economic environment, as well as political conditions in the United States and elsewhere, may materially adversely affect our business and results of operations. Our results of operations are materially affected by economic, market, political and social conditions in the United States and abroad. We offer a broad array of products and services to consumers, small businesses and commercial clients and thus are very dependent upon the level of consumer and business activity and the demand for payment and financing products. Slow economic growth, volatile or deteriorating economic conditions or shifts in broader consumer and business trends could change customer behaviors, including spending on our cards, the ability and willingness of Card Members to borrow and pay amounts owed to us, and demand for fee-based products and services. Political conditions, prolonged or recurring government shutdowns, regional hostilities, social upheaval, fiscal and monetary policies, trade concerns and tariffs could also negatively affect consumer and business spending, including travel patterns and business investment, and demand for credit. Factors such as consumer spending and confidence, unemployment rates, business investment, government spending, trade relationships with other countries, interest rates, taxes, energy costs, the volatility and strength of the capital markets, inflation and deflation all affect the economic environment and, ultimately, our profitability. Such factors may also cause our earnings, billings, loan balances, credit metrics and margins to fluctuate and diverge from expectations of analysts and investors, who may have differing assumptions regarding their impact on our business, adversely affecting, and/or increasing the volatility of, the trading price of our common shares. Travel and entertainment expenditures, which comprised approximately 25 percent of our U.S. billed business during 2018, for example, are sensitive to business and personal discretionary spending levels and tend to decline during general economic downturns. Likewise, spending by small businesses and corporate clients, which comprised approximately 41 percent of our worldwide billed business during 2018, depends in part on the economic environment and a favorable climate for continued business investment and new business formation. Increases in delinquencies and write-off rates as a result of increases in bankruptcies, unemployment rates, changes in customer behaviors or otherwise could also have a material adverse effect on our results of operations. The consequences of negative circumstances impacting us or the environment generally can be sudden and severe. The exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union could adversely impact our business, results of operations and financial condition. Our business in the United Kingdom and elsewhere may be negatively impacted by the uncertainty regarding the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union (commonly referred to as Brexit), including from a deterioration of consumer and business activity in the United Kingdom and other countries and general uncertainty in the overall business environment in which we operate. The exit itself could negatively impact the United Kingdom and other economies, which could adversely affect spending on our cards and the ability and willingness of Card Members to pay amounts owed to us. We may also experience increased volatility in the value of the pound sterling, the euro and other European currencies, which could further strengthen the U.S. dollar, adversely impacting the results of operations from our international activities. In addition, Brexit could lead to legal uncertainty and potentially divergent national laws and regulations in the United Kingdom and the European Union, and we may incur additional costs or need to make operational changes that reduce revenue as we adapt to potentially divergent regulatory frameworks. Any of these effects of Brexit, among others, could adversely affect our business and financial results. As of December 31, 2018, the United Kingdom constituted approximately 4 percent of our worldwide billed business and the EMEA region as a whole constituted approximately 11 percent. We have made changes to the structure of our business operations in Europe in anticipation of Brexit, although the financial, trade and legal implications of Brexit are still uncertain and may be more severe than expected given that the final terms upon which the United Kingdom will exit the EU are still not known and the lack of comparable precedent. Our operating results may suffer because of substantial and increasingly intense competition worldwide in the payments industry. The payments industry is highly competitive, and we compete with charge, credit and debit card networks, issuers and acquirers, paper-based transactions (e.g., cash and checks), bank transfer models (e.g., wire transfers and ACH), as well as evolving and growing alternative, non-traditional payment and financing providers. If we are not able to differentiate ourselves from our competitors, develop compelling value propositions for our customers and/or effectively grow in areas such as mobile and online payments and emerging technologies, we may not be able to compete effectively. We believe Visa and Mastercard are larger than we are in most countries. As a result, card issuers and acquirers on the Visa and Mastercard networks may be able to benefit from the dominant position, scale, resources, marketing and pricing of those networks. Our business may also be increasingly negatively affected if we are unable to increase merchant acceptance and our cards are not accepted at merchants that accept cards on the Visa and Mastercard networks. Some of our competitors have developed, or may develop, substantially greater financial and other resources than we have and may offer richer value propositions or a wider range of programs and services than we offer or may use more effective advertising, marketing or cross-selling strategies to acquire and retain more customers, capture a greater share of spending and borrowings, establish and develop more attractive cobrand card and other partner programs and maintain greater merchant acceptance than we have. We may not be able to compete effectively against these threats or respond or adapt to changes in consumer spending habits as effectively as our competitors. We expect expenses such as Card Member rewards and Card Member services expenses to continue to increase as we improve our value propositions for Card Members, including in response to increased competition. Spending on our cards could continue to be impacted by increasing consumer usage of charge, credit and debit cards issued on other networks, as well as adoption of alternative payment systems. To the extent other payment mechanisms, systems and products continue to successfully expand, our discount revenues and our ability to access transaction data through our integrated network could be negatively impacted. For example, companies that control access to consumer and merchant payment method choices at the point of sale or through digital wallets, commerce-related experiences, mobile applications or other technologies could choose not to accept, suppress use of, or degrade the experience of using our products or could restrict our access to our customers and transaction data. Such companies could also require payments from us to participate in such digital wallets, experiences or applications, impacting our profitability on transactions. The competitive value of our closed-loop data may also be diminished as traditional and non-traditional competitors use other, new data sources and technologies to derive similar insights. Certain regulations, such as PSD2 in Europe and open banking initiatives in various jurisdictions around the world, could also diminish the value of our closed-loop data or the demand for our products and services by disintermediating existing financial services providers. To the extent we expand into new business areas and new geographic regions, we may face competitors with more experience and more established relationships with relevant customers, regulators and industry participants, which could adversely affect our ability to compete. Laws and business practices that favor local competitors, require card transactions to be routed over domestic networks or prohibit or limit foreign ownership of certain businesses could limit our growth in international regions. We may face additional compliance and regulatory risks to the extent that we expand into new business areas, and we may need to dedicate more expense, time and resources to comply with regulatory requirements than our competitors, particularly those that are not regulated financial institutions. Many of our competitors are subject to different, and in some cases, less stringent, legislative and regulatory regimes, and some may have lower cost structures and more agile business models and systems. More restrictive laws and regulations that do not apply to all of our competitors can put us at a disadvantage, including prohibiting us from engaging in certain transactions, regulating our business practices or adversely affecting our cost structure. We face intense competition for partner relationships, which could result in a loss or renegotiation of these arrangements that could have a material adverse impact on our business and results of operations. In the ordinary course of our business we enter into different types of contractual arrangements with business partners in a variety of industries. For example, we have partnered with Delta Air Lines, as well as many others globally, to offer cobranded cards for consumers and small businesses, and through our Membership Rewards program we have partnered with businesses in many industries, including the airline industry, to offer benefits to Card Member participants. Competition for relationships with key business partners is very intense and there can be no assurance we will be able to grow or maintain these partner relationships or that they will remain as profitable. Establishing and retaining attractive cobrand card partnerships is particularly competitive among card issuers and networks as these partnerships typically appeal to high-spending loyal customers. All of our cobrand portfolios in the aggregate accounted for approximately 17 percent of our worldwide billed business for the year ended December 31, 2018. Card Member loans related to our cobrand portfolios accounted for approximately 36 percent of our worldwide Card Member loans as of December 31, 2018. We have partnered with Delta Air Lines across many aspects of our business. We issue cards under cobrand arrangements with Delta and the Delta cobrand portfolio, our largest cobrand portfolio, accounted for approximately 8 percent of our worldwide billed business for the year ended December 31, 2018 and approximately 21 percent of worldwide Card Member loans as of December 31, 2018. The Delta cobrand portfolio generates fee revenue and interest income from Card Members and discount revenue from Delta and other merchants for spending on Delta cobrand cards. Our relationships with, and revenues related to, Delta are significant and extend beyond cobrand accounts. Delta is a key participant in our Membership Rewards program, provides travel-related benefits and services, including airport lounge access for certain American Express Card Members, accepts American Express cards as a merchant and is a corporate payments customer. Cobrand arrangements are entered into for a fixed period, generally ranging from five to eight years, and will terminate in accordance with their terms, including at the end of the fixed period unless extended or renewed at the option of the parties, or upon early termination as a result of an event of default or otherwise. We work with our cobrand partners on an ongoing basis to demonstrate the value we deliver and evolve our relationships for the benefit of both parties. We face the risk that we could lose partner relationships, even after we have invested significant resources in the relationships. We may also choose to not renew certain cobrand relationships. The volume of billed business could decline and Card Member attrition could increase, in each case, significantly as a result of the termination of one or more cobrand partnership relationships. In addition, some of our cobrand arrangements provide that, upon expiration or termination, the cobrand partner may purchase or designate a third party to purchase the loans generated with respect to its program, which could result in the loss of the card accounts and a significant decline in our Card Member loans outstanding. We regularly seek to extend or renew cobrand arrangements in advance of the end of the contract term and face the risk that existing relationships will be renegotiated with less favorable terms for us or that we may be unable to renegotiate on terms that are acceptable to us, as competition for such relationships continues to increase. We make payments to our cobrand partners, which can be significant, based primarily on the amount of Card Member spending and corresponding rewards earned on such spending and, under certain arrangements, on the number of accounts acquired and retained. The amount we pay to our cobrand partners has increased, particularly in the United States, and may continue to increase as arrangements are renegotiated due to increasingly intense competition for cobrand partners among card issuers and networks. See "Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements and Contractual Obligations" under "MD&A" for additional information regarding commitments for payments to certain cobrand partners. The loss of exclusivity arrangements with business partners, the loss of the partner relationship altogether (whether by non-renewal at the end of the contract period, such as the end of our relationship with Costco in the United States in 2016, or as the result of a merger, legal or regulatory action or otherwise, such as the withdrawal of American Airlines in 2014 from our Airport Club Access program for Centurion® and Platinum Card® Members) or the renegotiation of existing partnerships with terms that are significantly worse for us could have a material adverse impact on our business and results of operations. See "Our business is subject to comprehensive government regulation and supervision, which could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition" for information on the uncertainty regarding our cobrand and agent relationships in the EU. In addition, any publicity associated with the loss of any of our key business partners could harm our reputation, making it more difficult to attract and retain Card Members and merchants, and could weaken our negotiating position with our remaining and prospective business partners. We face continued intense competitive pressure that may impact the prices we charge merchants that accept our cards for payment for goods and services. Unlike our competitors in the payments industry that rely on revolving credit balances to drive profits, our business model is more focused on Card Member spending. Discount revenue, which represents fees generally charged to merchants when Card Members use their cards to purchase goods and services on our network, is primarily driven by billed business volumes and is our largest single revenue source. In recent years, we experienced some reduction in our average merchant discount rate, including as a result of rate pressure resulting from regulatory changes affecting competitor pricing in certain international countries. We also face pressure from competitors that have other sources of income or lower costs that can make their pricing more attractive to business partners and merchants. Merchants are also able to negotiate incentives and pricing concessions from us as a condition to accepting our cards or being cobrand partners. As merchants consolidate and become even larger, we may have to increase the amount of incentives and/or concessions we provide to such merchants, which could materially and adversely affect our results of operations. Competitive and regulatory pressures on pricing could make it difficult to offset the costs of these incentives. We have also experienced erosion of our average merchant discount rate as we increase merchant acceptance. We may not be successful in significantly expanding merchant acceptance or offsetting rate erosion with volumes at new merchants. In addition, the regulatory environment and differentiated payment models and technologies from non-traditional players in the alternative payments space could pose challenges to our traditional payment model and adversely impact our average merchant discount rate. Some merchants continue to invest in their own payment solutions, such as proprietary-branded mobile wallets, using both traditional and new technology platforms. If merchants are able to drive broad consumer adoption and usage, it could adversely impact our average merchant discount rate and billed business volumes. A continuing priority of ours is to drive greater and differentiated value to our merchants which, if not successful, could negatively impact our discount revenue and financial results. We may not succeed in maintaining merchant discount rates or offsetting the impact of declining merchant discount rates, which could materially and adversely affect our revenues and profitability, and therefore our ability to invest in innovation and in value-added services for merchants and Card Members. Surcharging or steering by merchants could materially adversely affect our business and results of operations. In certain countries, such as Australia and certain Member States in the EU, merchants are expressly permitted by law to surcharge certain card purchases. In jurisdictions allowing surcharging, we have seen merchant surcharging on American Express cards in certain merchant categories, and in some cases, either the surcharge is greater than that applied to Visa and Mastercard cards or Visa and Mastercard cards are not surcharged at all (practices that are known as differential surcharging), even though there are many cards issued on competing networks that have an equal or greater cost of acceptance for the merchant. In addition, the laws of a number of states in the United States that prohibit surcharging have been overturned in litigation brought by merchant groups. We also encounter merchants that accept our cards, but tell their customers that they prefer to accept another type of payment or otherwise seek to suppress use of our cards. Our Card Members value the ability to use their cards where and when they want to, and we, therefore, take steps to meet our Card Members’ expectations and to protect the American Express brand by prohibiting this form of discrimination, subject to local legal requirements. If surcharging, steering or other forms of discrimination become widespread, American Express cards and credit and charge cards generally could become less desirable to consumers, which could result in a decrease in cards-in-force and transaction volumes. The impact could vary depending on such factors as the industry or manner in which a surcharge is levied, how Card Members are steered to other card products or payment forms at the point of sale, the size and recurrence of the underlying charges, and whether and to what extent these actions are applied to other forms of payment, including whether it varies depending on the type of card, product, network, acquirer or issuer. Discrimination against American Express cards could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations, particularly to the extent it disproportionately impacts our Card Members or our business. We may not be successful in our efforts to promote card usage through marketing and promotion, merchant acceptance and Card Member rewards and services, or to effectively control the costs of such investments, both of which may impact our profitability. Revenue growth is dependent on increasing consumer and business spending on our cards, growing loan balances and increasing fee revenue. We have been investing in a number of growth initiatives, including to attract new Card Members, reduce Card Member attrition and capture a greater share of customers’ total spending and borrowings. There can be no assurance that our investments to acquire Card Members, provide differentiated features and services and increase usage of our cards will continue to be effective. In addition, if we develop new products or offers that attract customers looking for short-term incentives rather than incentivize long-term loyalty, Card Member attrition and costs could increase. Increasing spending on our cards also depends on our continued expansion of merchant acceptance of our cards. If the rate of merchant acceptance growth slows or reverses itself, our business could suffer. Further, expanding our service offerings, adding customer acquisition channels and forming new partnerships or renewing current partnerships could have higher costs than our current arrangements, and could adversely impact our average discount rate or dilute our brand. Another way we invest in customer value is through our Membership Rewards program, as well as other Card Member benefits. Any significant change in, or failure by management to reasonably estimate, actual redemptions of Membership Rewards points and associated redemption costs could adversely affect our profitability. We rely on third parties, such as Amazon and Delta, for certain redemption options and may not be able to continue to offer such redemption options in the future, which could diminish the value of the program for our Card Members. In addition, many credit card issuers have instituted rewards and cobrand programs and may introduce programs and services that are similar to or more attractive than ours. Our inability to continue to differentiate our products and services generally could materially adversely affect us. We may not be able to cost-effectively manage and expand Card Member benefits, including containing the growth of marketing, promotion, rewards and Card Member services expenses in the future. If such expenses continue to increase beyond our expectations, we will need to find ways to offset the financial impact by increasing payments volume, increasing other areas of revenues such as fee-based revenues, or both. We may not succeed in doing so, particularly in the current competitive and regulatory environment. Our brand and reputation are key assets of our Company, and our business may be affected by how we are perceived in the marketplace. Our brand and its attributes are key assets, and we believe our continued success depends on our ability to preserve, grow and leverage the value of our brand. Our ability to attract and retain consumer and small business Card Members and corporate clients is highly dependent upon the external perceptions of our level of service, trustworthiness, business practices, data use and protection, management, workplace culture, merchant acceptance, financial condition, our response to unexpected events and other subjective qualities. Negative perceptions or publicity regarding these matters - even if related to seemingly isolated incidents and whether or not factually correct-could erode trust and confidence and damage our reputation among existing and potential Card Members and corporate clients, which could make it difficult for us to attract new Card Members and customers and maintain existing ones. Negative public opinion could result from actual or alleged conduct in any number of activities or circumstances, including card practices, regulatory compliance, the use and protection of customer information and conduct by our employees, and from actions taken by regulators or others in response thereto. Social media channels can also cause rapid, widespread reputational harm to our brand. Our brand and reputation may also be harmed by actions taken by third parties that are outside our control. For example, any shortcoming of or controversy related to a third-party vendor, business partner, merchant acquirer or network partner may be attributed by Card Members and merchants to us, thus damaging our reputation and brand value. The lack of acceptance, suppression of card usage or surcharging by merchants can also negatively impact perceptions of our brand and our products, lower overall transaction volume and increase the attractiveness of other payment products or systems. Adverse developments with respect to our industry may also, by association, negatively impact our reputation, or result in greater regulatory or legislative scrutiny or litigation against us. Furthermore, as a corporation with headquarters and operations located in the United States, a negative perception of the United States arising from its political or other positions could harm the perception of our company and our brand. Although we monitor developments for areas of potential risk to our reputation and brand, negative perceptions or publicity could materially and adversely affect our revenues and profitability. A major information or cyber security incident or an increase in fraudulent activity could lead to reputational damage to our brand and significant legal, regulatory and financial exposure, and could reduce the use and acceptance of our charge and credit cards. We and third parties process, transmit, store and provide access to account information in connection with our charge and credit cards and other products, and in the normal course of our business, we collect, analyze and retain significant volumes of certain types of personally identifiable and other information pertaining to our customers and employees. Our networks and systems are subject to constant attempts to identify and exploit potential vulnerabilities in our operating environment with intent to disrupt our business operations and capture, destroy, manipulate or expose various types of information relating to corporate trade secrets, customer information, including Card Member, travel and loyalty program data, employee information and other sensitive business information, including acquisition activity, financial results and intellectual property. There are a number of motivations for cyber threat actors, including criminal activities such as fraud, identity theft and ransom, corporate or nation-state espionage, political agendas, public embarrassment with the intent to cause financial or reputational harm, intent to disrupt information technology systems, and to expose and exploit potential security and privacy vulnerabilities in corporate systems and websites. Global financial institutions like us have experienced a significant increase in information and cyber security risk in recent years and will likely continue to be the target of increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, including computer viruses, malicious or destructive code, ransomware, social engineering attacks (including phishing, impersonation and identity takeover attempts), hacking, website defacement, denial-of-service attacks and other attacks and similar disruptions from the misconfiguration or unauthorized use of or access to computer systems. For example, we and other U.S. financial services providers have been the targets of distributed denial-of-service attacks from sophisticated third parties. We develop and maintain systems and processes aimed at detecting and preventing information and cyber security incidents and fraudulent activity, which require significant investment, maintenance and ongoing monitoring and updating as technologies and regulatory requirements change and as efforts to overcome security measures become more sophisticated. Despite our efforts, the possibility of information and cyber security incidents, malicious social engineering, fraudulent or other malicious activities and human error or malfeasance cannot be eliminated entirely and will evolve as new technology is deployed. Risks associated with each of these include theft of funds and other monetary loss, the disruption of our operations and the unauthorized disclosure, release, gathering, monitoring, misuse, modification, loss or destruction of confidential, proprietary or other information (including account data information), the effects of which could be compounded if not detected quickly. Information or cyber security incidents, fraudulent activity and other actual or perceived failures to maintain confidentiality, integrity, privacy and/or security may lead to regulatory investigations and intervention (such as mandatory card reissuance), increased litigation (including class action litigation), remediation, fines and response costs, negative assessments of us and our subsidiaries by banking regulators and rating agencies, reputational and financial damage to our brand, and reduced usage and acceptance of our cards, all of which could have a material adverse impact on our business. The disclosure of sensitive company information could also undermine our competitive advantage and divert management attention and resources. Successful cyberattacks, data breaches, disruptions or other incidents related to the actual or perceived failures to maintain confidentiality, integrity, privacy and/or security at other large financial institutions, large retailers, travel and hospitality companies or other market participants, whether or not we are impacted, could lead to a general loss of customer confidence that could negatively affect us, including harming the market perception of the effectiveness of our security measures or harming the reputation of the financial system in general, which could result in reduced use of our products and services. Such events could also result in legislation and additional regulatory requirements. Although we have insurance for losses related to cyber risks and attacks and information and cyber security and privacy liability, it may not be sufficient to offset the impact of a material loss event. The uninterrupted operation of our information systems is critical to our success and a significant disruption could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations. Our information technology systems, including our transaction authorization, clearing and settlement systems, and data centers, may experience service disruptions or degradation because of technology malfunction, sudden increases in customer transaction volume, natural disasters, accidents, power outages, internet outages, telecommunications failures, fraud, denial-of-service and other cyberattacks, terrorism, computer viruses, vulnerabilities in hardware or software, physical or electronic break-ins, or similar events. Service disruptions could prevent access to our online services and account information, compromise or limit access to company or customer data, and impede transaction processing and financial reporting. Any interruption or degradation could adversely affect the perception of the reliability of our products and services and materially adversely affect our overall business, reputation and results of operations. We rely on third-party providers for acquiring customers, technology, platforms and other services integral to the operations of our businesses. These third parties may act in ways that could harm our business. We rely on third-party service providers, merchants, customer acquisition channels, processors, aggregators, network partners and other third parties for services that are integral to our operations and are subject to the risk that activities of such third parties may adversely affect our business. As outsourcing, specialization of functions, third-party digital services and technology innovation within the payments industry increase (including with respect to mobile technologies, tokenization, big data and cloud storage solutions), more third parties are involved in processing card transactions and handling our data. For example, we rely on third parties for the timely transmission of accurate information across our global network, card acquisition and provision of services to our customers. If a service provider or other third party ceases to provide the data quality or communications capacity we expect or services upon which we rely, as a result of natural disaster, operational disruptions or errors, terrorism, information or cyber security incidents, or any other reason, the failure could interrupt or compromise the quality of our services to customers or impact our ability to grow our business. The confidentiality, integrity, privacy and/or security of data communicated over third-party networks or platforms or held by, or accessible to, third parties, including merchants that accept our cards, payment processors, payment intermediaries and our third-party vendors and business partners, could become compromised, which could lead to unauthorized use of our data or fraudulent transactions on our cards, as well as costs associated with responding to such an incident. For example, in March 2018, we were alerted by Expedia that certain customers who used Expedia’s Orbitz platform may have been victims of a cyberattack. The attack involved an Orbitz platform that served as the underlying booking engine for online travel websites, including Amextravel.com and travel booked through Amex Travel Representatives. We are also exposed to the risk that a disruption or other event at a third party affecting one of our service providers or partners could impede their ability to provide to us services or data on which we rely to operate our business. Service providers or other third parties could also cease providing data to us if we are unable to negotiate for data use rights or use our data for purposes that do not benefit us, which could diminish the competitive value of our closed loop. The management of multiple vendors increases our operational complexity and decreases our control. A failure to exercise adequate oversight over service providers, including compliance with service level agreements or regulatory or legal requirements, could result in regulatory actions, fines, sanctions or economic and reputational harm to us. In addition, we may not be able to effectively monitor or mitigate operational risks relating to our vendors’ service providers. We have agreements with business partners in a variety of industries, including the airline industry, that represent a significant portion of our business. We are exposed to risks associated with these industries, including bankruptcies, liquidations, restructurings, consolidations and alliances of our partners, and the possible obligation to make payments to our partners. We may be obligated to make or accelerate payments to certain business partners such as cobrand partners upon the occurrence of certain triggering events such as a shortfall in certain performance and revenue levels. If we are not able to effectively manage these triggering events, we could unexpectedly have to make payments to these partners, which could have a negative effect on our financial condition and results of operations. Similarly, we are exposed to risk from bankruptcies, liquidations, insolvencies, financial distress, restructurings, consolidations and other similar events that may occur in any industry representing a significant portion of our billed business, which could negatively impact particular card products and services (and billed business generally) and our financial condition and results of operations. For example, we could be materially impacted if we were obligated to or elected to reimburse Card Members for products and services purchased from merchants that have ceased operations or stopped accepting our cards. We are exposed to credit risk in the airline industry to the extent we protect Card Members against non-delivery of goods and services, such as where we have remitted payment to an airline for a Card Member purchase of tickets that have not yet been used or “flown.” If we are unable to collect the amount from the airline, we may bear the loss for the amount credited to the Card Member. Spending at airline merchants accounted for approximately 8 percent of our worldwide billed business for the year ended December 31, 2018. For additional information relating to the general risks related to the airline industry, see “Risk Management-Institutional Credit Risk-Exposure to the Airline and Travel Industry” under “MD&A.” If we are not able to invest successfully in, and compete at the leading edge of, technological developments across all our businesses, our revenue and profitability could be negatively affected. Our industry is subject to rapid and significant technological changes. In order to compete in our industry, we need to continue to invest in technology across all areas of our business, including in transaction processing, data management and analytics, machine learning and artificial intelligence, customer interactions and communications, alternative payment mechanisms, authentication technologies and risk management and compliance systems. Incorporating new technologies into our products and services may require substantial expenditures and take considerable time, and ultimately may not be successful. We expect that new technologies in the payments industry will continue to emerge, and these new technologies may be superior to, or render obsolete, our existing technology. The process of developing new products and services, enhancing existing products and services and adapting to technological changes and evolving industry standards is complex, costly and uncertain, and any failure by us to anticipate customers’ changing needs and emerging technological trends accurately could significantly impede our ability to compete effectively. Consumer and merchant adoption is a key competitive factor and our competitors may develop products, platforms or technologies that become more widely adopted than ours. In addition, we may underestimate the time and expense we must invest in new products and services before they generate material revenues, if at all. Our ability to develop, acquire or access competitive technologies or business processes on acceptable terms may also be limited by intellectual property rights that third parties, including competitors and potential competitors, may assert. In addition, our ability to adopt new technologies may be inhibited by the emergence of industry-wide standards, a changing legislative and regulatory environment, the need for internal product and engineering expertise, resistance to change from Card Members or merchants, or the complexity of our systems. We may not be successful in realizing the benefits associated with our acquisitions, strategic alliances, joint ventures and investment activity, and our business and reputation could be negatively impacted. We have acquired a number of businesses and have made a number of strategic investments, and continue to evaluate potential transactions. These transactions could be material to our financial condition and results of operations. There is no assurance that we will be able to successfully identify and secure future acquisition candidates on terms and conditions that are acceptable to us, or successfully complete proposed acquisitions and investments, which could impair our growth. The process of integrating an acquired company, business or technology could create unforeseen operating difficulties and expenditures, result in unanticipated liabilities and harm our business generally. It may take us longer than expected to fully realize the anticipated benefits of these transactions, and those benefits may ultimately be smaller than anticipated or may not be realized at all, which could adversely affect our business and operating results, including as a result of write-downs of goodwill and other intangible assets. We may also face risks with other types of strategic transactions, such as the sale to InComm of the operations relating to our prepaid reloadable and gift card business in the United States. The reloadable operations have experienced disruptions in the past, impacting the ability of our prepaid customers to load and use their cards. If such operations are interrupted, suspended or terminated in the future, it could further negatively impact our customers’ experience, result in additional costs, litigation and regulatory action, and harm our business and reputation. Joint ventures, including our GBT JV, and minority investments inherently involve a lesser degree of control over business operations, thereby potentially increasing the financial, legal, operational and/or compliance risks associated with the joint venture or minority investment. In addition, we may be dependent on joint venture partners, controlling shareholders or management who may have business interests, strategies or goals that are inconsistent with ours. Business decisions or other actions or omissions of the joint venture partner, controlling shareholders or management may adversely affect the value of our investment, result in litigation or regulatory action against us and otherwise damage our reputation and brand. Our business is subject to the effects of geopolitical events, weather, natural disasters and other conditions. Geopolitical events, terrorist attacks, natural disasters, severe weather conditions, floods, health pandemics, information or cyber security incidents (including intrusion into or degradation of systems or technology by cyberattackers) and other catastrophic events can have a negative effect on our business. Because of our proximity to the World Trade Center, our headquarters were damaged as a result of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Recent hurricanes and other natural disasters have impacted spending and credit performance in the areas affected. Similar events or other disasters or catastrophic events in the future, and events impacting other sectors of the economy, including the telecommunications and energy sectors, could have a negative effect on our businesses and infrastructure, including our technology and systems. Card Members in California, New York, Florida, Texas and Georgia account for a significant portion of U.S. Consumer billed business and Card Members loans, and our results of operations could be impacted by events or conditions that disproportionately or specifically affect one or more of those states. Because we derive a portion of our revenues from travel-related spending, our business is sensitive to safety concerns related to travel and tourism, limitations on travel and mobility, and health-related risks. In addition, disruptions in air travel and other forms of travel can result in the payment of claims under travel interruption insurance policies we offer and, if such disruptions to travel are prolonged, they can materially adversely affect overall travel-related spending. If the conditions described above (or similar ones) result in widespread or lengthy disruptions to travel, they could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations. Card Member spending may also be negatively impacted in areas affected by natural disasters or other catastrophic events. The impact of such events on the overall economy may also adversely affect our financial condition or results of operations. Our success is dependent, in part, upon our executive officers and other key personnel, and misconduct by or loss of key personnel could materially adversely affect our business. Our success depends, in part, on our executive officers and other key personnel. Our senior management team has significant industry experience and would be difficult to replace. We rely upon our key personnel not only for business success, but also to lead with integrity. To the extent our leaders behave in a manner that does not comport with our company’s values, the consequences to our brand and reputation could be severe and could negatively affect our financial condition and results of operations. The market for qualified individuals is highly competitive, and we may not be able to attract and retain qualified personnel or candidates to replace or succeed members of our senior management team or other key personnel. Changes in immigration and work permit laws and regulations or the administration or enforcement of such laws or regulations can also impair our ability to attract and retain qualified personnel, or to employ such personnel in the location(s) of our choice. As further described in “Supervision and Regulation-Compensation Practices,” our compensation practices are subject to review and oversight by the Federal Reserve and the compensation practices of AENB is subject to review and oversight by the OCC. This regulatory review and oversight could further affect our ability to attract and retain our executive officers and other key personnel. The loss of key personnel could materially adversely affect our business. Legal, Regulatory and Compliance Risks Ongoing legal proceedings regarding provisions in our merchant contracts could have a material adverse effect on our business and result in additional litigation and/or arbitrations, substantial monetary damages and damage to our reputation and brand. We are a defendant in a number of actions, including proposed class actions, filed by merchants that challenge the non-discrimination and honor-all-cards provisions in our card acceptance agreements and seek damages. A description of these legal proceedings is contained in “Legal Proceedings.” It is possible that the resolution of one or any combination of these merchant claims could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations, require us to change our merchant agreements in a way that could expose our cards to increased merchant steering and other forms of discrimination that could impair the Card Member experience, result in additional litigation and/or arbitrations, impose substantial monetary damages and damage our reputation and brand. Even if we were not required to change our merchant agreements, changes in Visa’s and Mastercard’s policies or practices as a result of legal proceedings, lawsuit settlements or regulatory actions pending against them could result in changes to our business practices and materially and adversely impact our profitability. Our business is subject to comprehensive government regulation and supervision, which could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. We are subject to comprehensive government regulation and supervision in jurisdictions around the world, which significantly affects our business, and has the potential to restrict the scope of our existing businesses, increase our costs of doing business, limit our ability to pursue certain business opportunities, require changes to business practices, and affect our relationships with partners, merchants and Card Members. Regulatory oversight and supervision of our businesses are generally designed to protect consumers and enhance financial stability and are not designed to protect our security holders. New laws or regulations, enhanced supervision efforts or changes in the enforcement of existing laws or regulations applicable to our businesses could impact the profitability of our business activities, limit our ability to pursue business opportunities or adopt new technologies, require us to change certain of our business practices or alter our relationships with partners, merchants and Card Members, or affect retention of our key personnel. Such changes also may require us to invest significant management attention and resources to make any necessary changes and could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. Legislators and regulators around the world are aware of each other’s approaches to the regulation of the payments industry. Consequently, a development in one country, state or region may influence regulatory approaches in another. To the extent that different regulatory systems impose overlapping or inconsistent requirements on the conduct of our business, we face complexity and additional costs in our compliance efforts. If we fail to satisfy regulatory requirements or maintain our financial holding company status, our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected, and we may be restricted in our ability to take certain capital actions (such as declaring dividends or repurchasing outstanding shares) or engage in certain activities or acquisitions. Additionally, our banking regulators have wide discretion in the examination and the enforcement of applicable banking statutes and regulations and may restrict our ability to engage in certain activities or acquisitions or require us to maintain more capital. In recent years, legislators and regulators have focused on the operation of card networks, including interchange fees paid to card issuers in payment networks such as Visa and Mastercard and the fees merchants are charged to accept cards. Even where we are not directly regulated, regulation of bankcard fees can significantly negatively impact the discount revenue derived from our business, including as a result of downward pressure on our discount rate from decreases in competitor pricing in connection with caps on interchange fees. In some cases, regulations also extend to certain aspects of our business, such as network and cobrand arrangements or terms of card acceptance for merchants, including terms relating to non-discrimination and honor-all-cards. For example, we have largely exited our network businesses in the EU and Australia as a result of regulation in those jurisdictions. In addition, there is uncertainty as to when or how interchange fee caps and other provisions of the EU payments legislation might apply when we work with cobrand partners and agents in the EU. In a ruling issued on February 7, 2018, the EU Court of Justice confirmed the validity of the application of the fee caps and other provisions in circumstances where three-party networks issue cards with a cobrand partner or through an agent, although the ruling provided only limited guidance as to when or how the provisions might apply in such circumstances. As a result, there can be no assurance we will be able to maintain our cobrand and agent relationships in their current form in the EU. We are subject to certain provisions of the Bank Secrecy Act, as amended by the Patriot Act, with regard to maintaining effective AML programs. Similar AML requirements apply under the laws of most jurisdictions where we operate. Increased regulatory focus in this area could result in additional obligations or restrictions with respect to the types of products and services we may offer to consumers, the countries in which our cards may be used, and the types of customers and merchants who can obtain or accept our cards. Emerging technologies, such as digital currencies, could limit our ability to track the movement of funds. Money laundering, terrorist financing and other illicit activities involving our cards could result in enforcement action, and our reputation may suffer due to our customers’ association with certain countries, persons or entities or the existence of any such transactions. Various regulatory agencies and legislatures are also considering regulations and legislation covering identity theft, account management guidelines, credit bureau reporting, disclosure rules, security and marketing that would impact us directly, in part due to increased scrutiny of our underwriting and account management standards. These new requirements may restrict our ability to issue charge and credit cards or partner with other financial institutions, which could adversely affect our revenue growth. See “Supervision and Regulation” for more information about certain laws and regulations to which we are subject and their impact on us. Litigation and regulatory actions could subject us to significant fines, penalties, judgments and/or requirements resulting in significantly increased expenses, damage to our reputation and/or a material adverse effect on our business. Businesses in the financial services and payments industries have historically been subject to significant legal actions, including class action lawsuits. Many of these actions have included claims for substantial compensatory or punitive damages. While we have historically relied on our arbitration clause in agreements with customers to limit our exposure to class action litigation, there can be no assurance that we will continue to be successful in enforcing our arbitration clause in the future and claims of the type we previously arbitrated could be subject to the complexities, risks and costs associated with class action cases. The continued focus of merchants on issues relating to the acceptance of various forms of payment may lead to additional litigation and other legal actions. Given the inherent uncertainties involved in litigation, and the very large or indeterminate damages sought in some matters asserted against us, there is significant uncertainty as to the ultimate liability we may incur from litigation matters. We have been subject to regulatory actions and may continue to be subject to such actions, including governmental inquiries, investigations and enforcement proceedings, in the event of noncompliance or alleged noncompliance with laws or regulations. For example, we have been cooperating with certain governmental authorities that have requested information from, or served subpoenas on, us seeking information relating to a small, specialized part of our business, known as foreign exchange international payments (FXIP), which offers cross-border payments services primarily to small and middle market business customers in five countries, including the United States. In particular, we received investigative subpoenas from both the civil and criminal divisions of the U.S. Department of Justice as well as inquiries from the Federal Reserve, the OCC, the CFPB, the FDIC and others. FXIP accounts for less than one half of one percent of our total revenue net of interest expense and is unrelated to our card businesses. Relatedly, we are conducting a review with an outside law firm of FXIP’s pricing practices. We do not believe this matter will have a material adverse impact on our operations or results. We expect that regulators will continue taking formal enforcement actions against financial institutions in addition to addressing supervisory concerns through non-public supervisory actions or findings, which could involve restrictions on our activities, among other limitations that could adversely affect our business. In addition, a violation of law or regulation by another financial institution is likely to give rise to an investigation by regulators and other governmental agencies of the same or similar practices by us. Further, a single event may give rise to numerous and overlapping investigations and proceedings. Regulatory action could subject us to significant fines, penalties or other requirements resulting in Card Member reimbursements, increased expenses, limitations or conditions on our business activities, and damage to our reputation and our brand, which could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. We are subject to capital adequacy and liquidity rules, and if we fail to meet these rules, our business would be adversely affected. Failure to meet current or future capital or liquidity requirements could compromise our competitive position and could result in restrictions imposed by the Federal Reserve, including limiting our ability to pay dividends, repurchase our capital stock, invest in our business, expand our business or engage in acquisitions. Some elements of the capital and liquidity regimes are not yet final and certain developments could significantly impact the requirements applicable to financial institutions. For example, the Basel Committee finalized revisions to the standardized approach for credit risk and operational risk capital requirements. If these revisions are adopted in the United States, we could be required to hold significantly more capital. As a result, the ultimate impact on our long-term capital and liquidity planning and our results of operations is not certain, although an increase in our capital and liquid asset levels could lower our return on equity. As part of our required stress testing, we must continue to comply with applicable capital standards as calculated under the standardized approach in the severely adverse economic scenario published by the Federal Reserve each year. To satisfy these requirements, it may be necessary for us to hold additional capital in excess of that required by the Capital Rules. Compliance with capital adequacy and liquidity rules requires a material investment of resources. An inability to meet regulatory expectations regarding our compliance with applicable capital adequacy and liquidity rules may also negatively impact the assessment of us and our U.S. bank subsidiary by federal banking regulators. We continue to progress through the parallel run phase of Basel III advanced approaches implementation. To the extent that the advanced approaches requirements apply to us, our capital ratios calculated under the advanced approaches may be lower than under the standardized approach. In such a case, we may need to hold significantly more regulatory capital in order to maintain a given capital ratio. For more information on capital adequacy requirements, see “Stress Testing and Capital Planning” and “Capital, Leverage and Liquidity Regulation” under “Supervision and Regulation.” We are subject to restrictions that limit our ability to pay dividends and repurchase our capital stock. Our subsidiaries are also subject to restrictions that limit their ability to pay dividends to us, which may adversely affect our liquidity. We are limited in our ability to pay dividends and repurchase capital stock by our regulators, who have broad authority to prohibit any action that would be considered an unsafe or unsound banking practice. For example, we are subject to a requirement to submit capital plans that include, among other things, projected dividend payments and repurchases of capital stock to the Federal Reserve for review. As part of the capital planning and stress testing process, our proposed capital actions are assessed against our ability to satisfy applicable capital requirements in the event of a stressed market environment. If the Federal Reserve objects to our capital plan or if we fail to satisfy applicable capital requirements, our ability to undertake capital actions may be restricted. In addition, the Capital Rules include buffers that can be satisfied only with CET1 capital. If our risk-based capital ratios were to fall below the applicable buffer levels, we would be subject to certain restrictions on dividends, stock repurchases and other capital distributions, as well as discretionary bonus payments to executive officers. Our ability to declare or pay dividends on, or to purchase, redeem or otherwise acquire, shares of our common stock will be prohibited, subject to certain exceptions, in the event that we do not declare and pay in full dividends for the last preceding dividend period of our Series B and Series C preferred stock. American Express Company relies on dividends from its subsidiaries for liquidity, and federal and state laws, regulations and supervisory policy limit the amount of dividends that our subsidiaries may pay to the parent company. For example, our U.S. bank subsidiary, AENB, is subject to various statutory and regulatory limitations on its declaration and payment of dividends. These limitations may hinder our ability to access funds we may need to make payments on our obligations, make dividend payments on outstanding American Express Company capital stock or otherwise achieve strategic objectives. Any reduction of, or elimination of, our common stock dividend or share repurchase program would likely adversely affect the market price of our common stock and market perceptions of American Express. For more information on bank holding company and depository institution dividend restrictions, see “Dividends and Other Capital Distributions” under “Supervision and Regulation,” as well as “Consolidated Capital Resources and Liquidity-Share Repurchases and Dividends” under “MD&A” and Note 23 to our “Consolidated Financial Statements.” Regulation in the areas of privacy, data protection, account access and information and cyber security could increase our costs and affect or limit our business opportunities and how we collect and/or use personal information. Legislators and regulators in the United States and other countries in which we operate are increasingly adopting or revising privacy, data protection and information and cyber security laws, including data localization, authentication and account access laws. As such laws are interpreted and applied (in some cases, with significant differences or conflicting requirements across jurisdictions), compliance and technology costs will continue to increase, particularly in the context of ensuring that adequate data protection, data transfer and account access mechanisms are in place. Compliance with current or future privacy, data protection, account access and information and cyber security laws could significantly impact our collection, use, sharing, retention and safeguarding of consumer and/or employee information and could restrict our ability to fully maximize our closed-loop capability or provide certain products and services, which could materially and adversely affect our profitability. Our failure to comply with privacy, data protection, account access and information and cyber security laws could result in potentially significant regulatory and/or governmental investigations and/or actions, litigation, fines, sanctions, ongoing regulatory monitoring, customer attrition, decreases in the use or acceptance of our cards and damage to our reputation and our brand. In recent years, there has been increasing regulatory enforcement and litigation activity in the areas of privacy, data protection and information and cyber security in the United States and in various countries in which we operate. For more information on regulatory and legislative activity in this area, see “Privacy, Data Protection, Information and Cyber Security” under “Supervision and Regulation.” We may not be able to effectively manage the operational, conduct and compliance risks to which we are exposed. We consider operational risk to be the risk of not achieving business objectives due to inadequate or failed processes or information systems, poor data quality, human error or the external environment (e.g., natural disasters). Operational risk includes, among others, the risk that error or misconduct could result in a material financial misstatement, a failure to monitor a third party’s compliance with regulatory or legal requirements, or a failure to adequately monitor and control access to, or use of, data in our systems we grant to third-parties. As processes or organizations are changed, or new products and services are introduced, we may not fully appreciate or identify new operational risks that may arise from such changes. Through human error, fraud or malfeasance, conduct risk can result in harm to customers, broader markets and the company and its employees. Compliance risk arises from the failure to adhere to applicable laws, rules, regulations and internal policies and procedures. Operational, conduct and compliance risks can expose us to reputational and legal risks as well as fines, civil money penalties or payment of damages and can lead to diminished business opportunities and diminished ability to expand key operations. If we are not able to protect our intellectual property, or successfully defend against any infringement or misappropriation assertions brought against us, our revenue and profitability could be negatively affected. We rely on a variety of measures to protect our intellectual property and control access to, and distribution of, our proprietary information. These measures may not prevent infringement of our intellectual property rights or misappropriation of our proprietary information and a resulting loss of competitive advantage. In addition, competitors or other third parties may allege that our systems, processes or technologies infringe on their intellectual property rights. Given the complex, rapidly changing and competitive technological and business environments in which we operate, and the potential risks and uncertainties of intellectual property-related litigation, a future assertion of an infringement or misappropriation claim against us could cause us to lose significant revenues, incur significant defense, license, royalty or technology development expenses, and/or pay significant monetary damages. Tax legislative initiatives or assessments by governmental authorities could adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. We are subject to income and other taxes in the United States and in various foreign jurisdictions. The laws and regulations related to tax matters are extremely complex and subject to varying interpretations. Although management believes our positions are reasonable, we are subject to audit by the Internal Revenue Service in the United States and by tax authorities in all the jurisdictions in which we conduct business operations. We are being challenged in a number of countries regarding our application of value-added taxes (VAT) to certain transactions. While we believe we comply with all applicable VAT and other tax laws, rules and regulations in the relevant jurisdictions, the tax authorities may determine that we owe additional taxes or apply existing laws and regulations more broadly, which could result in a significant increase in liabilities for taxes and interest in excess of accrued liabilities. New tax legislative initiatives may be proposed from time to time, which may impact our effective tax rate and could adversely affect our tax positions or tax liabilities. New guidance or modifications to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (the Tax Act) could have an adverse effect on our results of operations. In addition, unilateral or multi-jurisdictional actions by various tax authorities, including an increase in tax audit activity, could have an adverse impact on our tax liabilities. Changes in accounting principles or standards could adversely affect our reported financial results in a particular period, even if there are no underlying changes in the economics of the business. We are subject to changes in and interpretations of financial accounting matters, which could change certain of the assumptions or estimates we previously used in preparing our financial statements, even if we do not change the way in which we transact or conduct our business. A change in accounting guidance can have a significant effect on our reported results, may retroactively affect previously reported results and could cause fluctuations in our reported results. For more information on recently issued accounting standards, see Note 1 to our “Consolidated Financial Statements.” Credit, Liquidity and Market Risks Our risk management policies and procedures may not be effective. Our risk management framework seeks to identify and mitigate risk and appropriately balance risk and return. We have established policies and procedures intended to identify, monitor and manage the types of risk to which we are subject, including credit risk, market risk, asset liability risk, liquidity risk, operational risk, compliance risk, model risk, strategic and business risk and reputational risk. See “Risk Management” under “MD&A” for a discussion of the policies and procedures we use to identify, monitor and manage the risks we assume in conducting our businesses. Although we have devoted significant resources to develop our risk management policies and procedures and expect to continue to do so in the future, these policies and procedures, as well as our risk management techniques, such as our hedging strategies, may not be fully effective. There may also be risks that exist, or develop in the future, that we have not appropriately anticipated, identified or mitigated. As regulations and markets in which we operate continue to evolve, our risk management framework may not always keep sufficient pace with those changes. If our risk management framework does not effectively identify or mitigate our risks, we could suffer unexpected losses and could be materially adversely affected. Management of our risks in some cases depends upon the use of analytical and/or forecasting models. Although we have a governance framework for model development and independent model validation, the modeling methodology or key assumptions could be erroneous or the models could be misused. In addition, issues with the quality or effectiveness of our data aggregation and validation procedures, as well as the quality and integrity of data inputs, could result in ineffective or inaccurate model outputs and reports. For example, models based on historical data sets might not be accurate predictors of future outcomes and their ability to appropriately predict future outcomes may degrade over time. If our decisions are based on incorrect or misused models and assumptions or we fail to manage data inputs effectively and to aggregate or analyze data in an accurate and timely manner, we may face adverse consequences, such as financial loss, poor business and strategic decision-making, or damage to our reputation. In addition, some decisions our regulators make, including those related to our capital distribution plans, may be adversely impacted if they perceive the quality of our models to be insufficient. We may not be able to effectively manage individual or institutional credit risk, or credit trends that can affect spending on card products and the ability of customers and partners to pay us, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. We are exposed to both individual credit risk, principally from consumer and small business Card Member receivables and loans, and institutional credit risk from corporate Card Member receivables and loans, merchants, network partners, loyalty coalition partners and treasury and investment counterparties. Third parties may default on their obligations to us due to bankruptcy, lack of liquidity, operational failure or other reasons. General economic factors, such as the rate of inflation, unemployment levels and interest rates, may result in greater delinquencies that lead to greater credit losses. Country, regional and political risks can also contribute to credit risk. A customer’s ability and willingness to repay us can be negatively impacted not only by economic, market, political and social conditions but also a customer’s other payment obligations. Our ability to assess creditworthiness may be impaired if the criteria or models we use to manage our credit risk prove inaccurate in predicting future losses, which could cause our losses to rise and have a negative impact on our results of operations. Further, our pricing strategies may not offset the negative impact on profitability caused by increases in delinquencies and losses; thus any material increases in delinquencies and losses beyond our current estimates could have a material adverse impact on us. Rising delinquencies and rising rates of bankruptcy are often precursors of future write-offs and may require us to increase our reserve for loan losses. Higher write-off rates and the resulting increase in our reserves for loan and receivable losses adversely affect our profitability and the performance of our securitizations, and may increase our cost of funds. Although we make estimates to provide for credit losses in our outstanding portfolio of loans and receivables, these estimates may not be accurate. In addition, the information we use in managing our credit risk may be inaccurate or incomplete. Although we regularly review our credit exposure to specific clients and counterparties and to specific industries, countries and regions that we believe may present credit concerns, default risk may arise from events or circumstances that are difficult to foresee or detect, such as fraud. In addition, our ability to manage credit risk may be adversely affected by legal or regulatory changes (such as restrictions on collections or changes in bankruptcy laws, minimum payment regulations and re-age guidance). Increased credit risk, whether resulting from underestimating the credit losses inherent in our portfolio of loans and receivables, deteriorating economic conditions (particularly in the United States where approximately 74 percent of our revenues were generated in 2018), increases in the level of loan balances, changes in our mix of business or otherwise, could require us to increase our provisions for losses and could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. Continued interest rate increases and changes to reference rates could materially adversely affect our earnings. If the rate of interest we pay on our borrowings increases more than the rate of interest we earn on our loans, our net interest yield, and consequently our net income, could fall. Our interest expense was approximately $2.9 billion for the year ended December 31, 2018. A hypothetical 100 basis point increase in market interest rates would have resulted in a decrease to our annual net interest income of approximately $177 million as of December 31, 2018. We expect the rates we pay on our deposits will increase as benchmark interest rates increase. In addition, interest rate changes may affect customer behavior, such as impacting the loan balances Card Members carry on their credit cards or their ability to make payments as higher interest rates lead to higher payment requirements, further impacting our results of operations. As a result of recent regulatory and other legal proceedings, actions by regulators or law enforcement agencies may result in changes to the manner in which the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) is determined, its discontinuance or the establishment of alternative reference rates. At this time, it is not possible to predict the effect that these developments, any discontinuance, modification or other reforms to LIBOR or any other reference rate, the establishment of alternative reference rates, or the impact of any such events on contractual mechanisms may have on the markets, us or our floating rate debt securities. Uncertainty as to the nature of such potential discontinuance, modification, alternative reference rates or other reforms may negatively impact market liquidity, our access to funding required to operate our business and the trading market for our floating rate debt securities. Furthermore, the use of alternative reference rates or other reforms could cause the interest payable on our outstanding floating rate debt securities to be materially different, and potentially higher, than expected. For a further discussion of our interest rate risk, see “Risk Management - Market Risk Management Process” under “MD&A.” Adverse financial market conditions may significantly affect our ability to meet liquidity needs, access to capital and cost of capital. We need liquidity to pay merchants, operating and other expenses, interest on debt and dividends on capital stock and to repay maturing liabilities. The principal sources of our liquidity are payments from Card Members, proceeds from the issuance of unsecured medium- and long-term notes and asset securitizations and direct and third-party sourced deposits, cash flows from our investment portfolio, cash and cash equivalents, securitized borrowings through our secured financing facilities, a committed bank borrowing facility and the Federal Reserve discount window. Our ability to obtain financing in the debt capital markets for unsecured term debt and asset securitizations is dependent on market conditions. Disruptions, uncertainty or volatility across the financial markets, as well as adverse developments affecting our competitors and the financial industry generally, could negatively impact market liquidity and limit our access to funding required to operate our business. Such market conditions may also limit our ability to replace, in a timely manner, maturing liabilities, satisfy regulatory capital requirements and access the funding necessary to grow our business. In some circumstances, we may incur an unattractive cost to raise capital, which could decrease profitability and significantly reduce financial flexibility. For a further discussion of our liquidity and funding needs, see “Consolidated Capital Resources and Liquidity - Funding Programs and Activities” under “MD&A.” Any reduction in our and our subsidiaries’ credit ratings could increase the cost of our funding from, and restrict our access to, the capital markets and have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. Rating agencies regularly evaluate us and our subsidiaries, and their ratings of our and our subsidiaries’ long-term and short-term debt and deposits are based on a number of factors, including financial strength, as well as factors not within our control, including conditions affecting the financial services industry generally, and the wider state of the economy. Our and our subsidiaries’ ratings could be downgraded at any time and without any notice by any of the rating agencies, which could, among other things, adversely limit our access to the capital markets and adversely affect the cost and other terms upon which we and our subsidiaries are able to obtain funding. Adverse currency fluctuations and foreign exchange controls could decrease earnings we receive from our international operations and impact our capital. During 2018, approximately 26 percent of our total revenues net of interest expense were generated from activities outside the United States. We are exposed to foreign exchange risk from our international operations, and accordingly the revenue we generate outside the United States is subject to unpredictable fluctuations if the values of other currencies change relative to the U.S. dollar (including as a result of Brexit), which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations. Foreign exchange regulations or capital controls might restrict or prohibit the conversion of other currencies into U.S. dollars or our ability to transfer them. Political and economic conditions in other countries could also impact the availability of foreign exchange for the payment by the local card issuer of obligations arising out of local Card Members’ spending outside such country and for the payment by Card Members who are billed in a currency other than their local currency. Substantial and sudden devaluation of local Card Members’ currency can also affect their ability to make payments to the local issuer of the card in connection with spending outside the local country. The occurrence of any of these circumstances could further impact our results of operations. Continuing concerns regarding the euro may cause the value of the euro to continue to fluctuate and could lead to the reintroduction of individual currencies in one or more Eurozone countries, or, in more extreme circumstances, the possible dissolution of the euro currency entirely. The reintroduction of certain individual country currencies, a significant devaluation of the euro or the complete dissolution of the euro could adversely affect the value of our euro-denominated assets and liabilities. Potential developments regarding the euro could also have an adverse impact on consumer and business behavior in Europe and globally, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. An inability to accept or maintain deposits due to market demand or regulatory constraints could materially adversely affect our liquidity position and our ability to fund our business. Our U.S. bank subsidiary, AENB, accepts deposits directly from consumers through American Express Personal Savings, as well as from individuals through third-party brokerage networks, and uses the proceeds as a source of funding. As of December 31, 2018, we had approximately $69.1 billion in total U.S. retail deposits, of which a significant amount had been raised through third-party brokerage networks. We face strong competition with regard to deposits, and pricing and product changes may adversely affect our ability to attract and retain cost-effective deposit balances. If we are required to offer higher interest rates to attract or maintain deposits, our funding costs will be adversely impacted. Our ability to obtain deposit funding and offer competitive interest rates on deposits is also dependent on AENB’s capital levels. The FDIA’s brokered deposit provisions and related FDIC rules in certain circumstances prohibit banks from accepting or renewing brokered deposits and apply other restrictions, such as a cap on interest rates that can be paid. Additionally, our regulators can adjust applicable capital requirements at any time and have authority to place limitations on our deposit businesses. An inability to attract or maintain deposits in the future could materially adversely affect our ability to fund our business. The value of our assets or liabilities may be adversely impacted by economic, political or market conditions. Market risk includes the loss in value of portfolios and financial instruments due to adverse changes in market variables, which could negatively impact our financial condition. We held approximately $4.7 billion of investment securities as of December 31, 2018. In the event that actual default rates of these investment securities were to significantly change from historical patterns due to economic conditions or otherwise, it could have a material adverse impact on the value of our investment portfolio, potentially resulting in impairment charges. Defaults or economic disruptions, even in countries or territories in which we do not have material investment exposure, conduct business or have operations, could adversely affect us. ITEM 1B.