AEE, §1A diff (2016 → 2017)

ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS Investors should review carefully the following material risk factors and the other information contained in this report. The risks that the Ameren Companies face are not limited to those in this section. There may be further risks and uncertainties that are not presently known or that are not currently believed to be material that may adversely affect the results of operations, financial position, and liquidity of the Ameren Companies. REGULATORY AND LEGISLATIVE RISKS We are subject to extensive regulation of our businesses, which could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. We are subject to federal, state, and local regulation. This extensive regulatory framework, some of which is more specifically identified in the following risk factors, regulates, among other matters, the electric and natural gas utility industries; the rate and cost structure of utilities; the operation of nuclear power plants; the construction and operation of generation, transmission, and distribution facilities; the acquisition, disposal, depreciation and amortization of assets and facilities; the electric transmission system reliability; and wholesale and retail competition. In the planning and management of our operations, we must address the effects of existing and proposed laws and regulations and potential changes in the regulatory framework, including initiatives by federal and state legislatures, RTOs, utility regulators, and taxing authorities. Significant changes in the nature of the regulation of our businesses could require changes to our business planning and management of our businesses and could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. Failure to obtain adequate rates or regulatory approvals in a timely manner; failure to obtain necessary licenses or permits from regulatory authorities; the impact of new or modified laws, regulations, standards, interpretations, or other legal requirements; or increased compliance costs could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. The electric and natural gas rates that we are allowed to charge are determined through regulatory proceedings, which are subject to intervention and appeal. Rates are also subject to legislative actions, which are largely outside of our control. Any events that prevent us from recovering our costs in a timely manner or from earning adequate returns on our investments could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. The rates that we are allowed to charge for our utility services significantly influence our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. The electric and natural gas utility industry is highly regulated. The utility rates charged to customers are determined by governmental entities, including the MoPSC, the ICC, and the FERC. Decisions by these entities are influenced by many factors, including the cost of providing service, the prudency of expenditures, the quality of service, regulatory staff knowledge and experience, customer intervention, and economic conditions, as well as social and political views. Decisions made by these governmental entities regarding rates are largely outside of our control. We are exposed to regulatory lag and cost disallowances to varying degrees by jurisdiction, which, if unmitigated, could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. Rate orders are also subject to appeal, which creates additional uncertainty as to the rates that we will ultimately be allowed to charge for our services. From time to time, our regulators may approve trackers, riders, or other mechanisms that allow electric or natural gas rates to be adjusted without a traditional rate proceeding. These mechanisms could be changed or terminated. Ameren Missouri’s electric and natural gas utility rates and Ameren Illinois’ natural gas utility rates are typically established in regulatory proceedings that take up to 11 months to complete. Ameren Missouri’s rates established in those proceedings are primarily based on historical costs and revenues. Ameren Illinois’ natural gas rates established in those proceedings are based on estimated future costs and revenues. Thus the rates that we are allowed to charge for utility services may not match our actual costs at any given time. Rates include an allowed rate of return on investments established by the regulator, including a return on invested capital, both debt and equity, and an amount for income taxes. Although rate regulation is premised on providing an opportunity to earn a reasonable rate of return on invested capital, there can be no assurance that the regulator will determine that our costs were prudently incurred or that the regulatory process will result in rates that will produce full recovery of such costs or provide for an opportunity to earn a reasonable return on those investments. With respect to Ameren Missouri’s electric and natural gas utility rates, in years when capital investments and operations costs rise or customer usage declines below those levels reflected in rates, we may not be able to earn the allowed return established by the regulator. This could result in the deferral or cancellation of planned capital investments, which could reduce the rate base investments on which Ameren Missouri earns a rate of return. Additionally, increasing rates could result in regulatory or legislative actions, as well as competitive or political pressures, all of which could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. As a result of its participation in the performance-based formula ratemaking framework established pursuant to the IEIMA and the FEJA, Ameren Illinois’ return on equity for its electric distribution service and its electric energy-efficiency investments is directly correlated to yields on United States Treasury bonds. Additionally, Ameren Illinois is required to achieve certain performance standards and capital spending levels. Failure to meet these requirements could adversely affect Ameren’s and Ameren Illinois’ results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. Ameren Illinois participates in a performance-based formula ratemaking framework established pursuant to the IEIMA for its electric distribution service. Beginning in 2017, the FEJA allowed Ameren Illinois to recover its electric distribution revenue requirement for a given year, independent of actual sales volumes. Since June 2017, the FEJA has also allowed Ameren Illinois to earn a return on its electric energy-efficiency program investments, which is subject to performance-based formula ratemaking. The ICC annually reviews Ameren Illinois’ rate filings for reasonableness and prudency. If the ICC were to conclude that Ameren Illinois’ costs were not prudently incurred, the ICC would disallow recovery of such costs. The return on equity component under the IEIMA and the FEJA is equal to the calendar year average of the monthly yields of 30-year United States Treasury bonds plus 580 basis points. Therefore, Ameren Illinois’ annual return on equity under the formula ratemaking frameworks for both its electric distribution service and its electric energy-efficiency investments is directly correlated to the yields on such bonds, which are outside of Ameren Illinois’ control. With respect to electric distribution service, a 50 basis point change in the average monthly yields of the 30-year United States Treasury bonds would result in an estimated $8 million change in Ameren’s and Ameren Illinois’ net income, based on its 2018 projected rate base. Ameren Illinois is also subject to performance standards. Failure to achieve the standards would result in a reduction in the company’s allowed return on equity calculated under the ratemaking formulas. The performance standards applicable to electric distribution service include improvements in service reliability to reduce both the frequency and duration of outages, a reduction in the number of estimated bills, a reduction of consumption from inactive meters, and a reduction in bad debt expense. The regulatory framework applicable to electric distribution service provides for return on equity penalties up to 34 basis points in 2018, and up to 38 basis points in each year from 2019 through 2022, if these performance standards are not met. Beginning in 2018, the regulatory framework applicable to electric energy-efficiency investments provides for increases or decreases of up to 200 basis points to the return on equity. Any adjustments to the return on equity for energy-efficiency investments will depend on annual performance of a historical period relative to energy savings goals. Between 2012 and 2021, Ameren Illinois is required to invest a minimum of $625 million in capital projects to modernize its distribution system incremental to its average annual electric distribution service capital projects of $228 million for calendar years 2008 through 2010. Through 2017, Ameren Illinois has invested $508 million in IEIMA capital projects toward its $625 million minimum requirement. If Ameren Illinois does not meet its investment commitments under IEIMA, Ameren Illinois would no longer be eligible to annually update its performance-based formula rates under IEIMA. Without the extension of formula ratemaking, the IEIMA performance-based formula ratemaking framework expires at the end of 2022. Ameren Illinois would then be required to establish future rates through a traditional rate proceeding with the ICC, which might not result in rates that produce a full or timely recovery of costs or provide for an adequate return on investments. The decoupling provisions of the FEJA do not expire at the end of 2022. Pursuant to the FEJA, Ameren Illinois plans to invest up to $99 million per year in electric energy-efficiency programs from 2018 through 2021 that will earn a return. Ameren Illinois plans to make similar yearly investments in electric energy-efficiency programs from 2022 through 2030. The ICC has the ability to reduce electric energy-efficiency savings goals if there are insufficient cost-effective programs available or if the savings goals would require investment levels that exceed amounts allowed by legislation. We are subject to various environmental laws and regulations. Significant capital expenditures are required to achieve and to maintain compliance with these laws and regulations. Failure to comply with these laws and regulations could result in the closing of facilities, alterations to the manner in which these facilities operate, increased operating costs, or exposure to fines and liabilities, all of which could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. We are subject to various environmental laws and regulations enforced by federal, state, and local authorities. The development and operation of electric generation, transmission, and distribution facilities and natural gas storage, transmission, and distribution facilities can trigger compliance obligations with respect to environmental laws and regulations. These laws and regulations address emissions, discharges to water, water usage, impacts to air, land, and water, and chemical and waste handling. Complex and lengthy processes are required to obtain and renew approvals, permits, and licenses for new, existing or modified facilities. Additionally, the use and handling of various chemicals or hazardous materials require release prevention plans and emergency response procedures. We are also subject to liability under environmental laws that address the remediation of environmental contamination on property currently or formerly owned by us or by our predecessors, as well as property contaminated by hazardous substances that we generated. Such properties include MGP sites and third-party sites, such as landfills. Additionally, private individuals may seek to enforce environmental laws and regulations against us. They could allege injury from exposure to hazardous materials, allege a failure to comply with environmental laws and regulations, seek to compel remediation of environmental contamination, or seek to recover damages resulting from that contamination. The EPA has promulgated environmental regulations that have a significant impact on the electric utility industry. Over time, compliance with these regulations could be costly for Ameren Missouri, which operates coal-fired power plants. As of December 31, 2017, Ameren Missouri’s fossil fuel-fired energy centers represented 17% and 33% of Ameren’s and Ameren Missouri’s rate base, respectively. Regulations that apply to air emissions from the electric utility industry include the NSPS, the CSAPR, the MATS, and the revised National Ambient Air Quality Standards, which are subject to periodic review for certain pollutants. Collectively, these regulations cover a variety of pollutants, such as SO2, particulate matter, NOx, mercury, toxic metals, and acid gases, and CO2 emissions from new power plants. Water intake and discharges from power plants are regulated under the Clean Water Act. Such regulation could require modifications to water intake structures or more stringent limitations on wastewater discharges at Ameren Missouri’s energy centers, either of which could result in significant capital expenditures. The management and disposal of coal ash is regulated under the CCR rule, which will require the closure of surface impoundments and the installations of dry ash handling systems at several of Ameren Missouri’s energy centers. The individual or combined effects of existing environmental regulations could result in significant capital expenditures, increased operating costs, or the closure or alteration of operations at some of Ameren Missouri’s energy centers. Ameren is also subject to risks from changing or conflicting interpretations of existing laws and regulations. The EPA is engaged in an enforcement initiative to determine whether coal-fired power plants failed to comply with the requirements of the NSR and NSPS provisions under the Clean Air Act when the power plants implemented modifications. In January 2011, the Department of Justice, on behalf of the EPA, filed a complaint against Ameren Missouri in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri. The complaint, as amended in October 2013, alleged that in performing projects at its Rush Island coal-fired energy center in 2007 and 2010, Ameren Missouri violated provisions of the Clean Air Act and Missouri law. The litigation has been divided into two phases: liability and remedy. In January 2017, the district court issued a liability ruling that the projects violated provisions of the Clean Air Act and Missouri law. The case then proceeded to the second phase to determine the actions required to remedy the violations found in the liability phase. The EPA previously withdrew all claims for penalties and fines. The ultimate resolution of this matter could have a material adverse effect on the results of operations, financial position, and liquidity of Ameren and Ameren Missouri. Among other things and subject to economic and regulatory considerations, resolution of this matter could result in increased capital expenditures for the installation of pollution control equipment, as well as increased operations and maintenance expenses. In 2015, the EPA issued the Clean Power Plan, which would have established CO2 emissions standards applicable to existing power plants. The United States Supreme Court stayed the rule in February 2016, pending various legal challenges. In October 2017, the EPA announced a proposal to repeal the Clean Power Plan. In December 2017, the EPA issued an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking to solicit input from stakeholders as to how the EPA should regulate CO2 emissions from existing power plants under the Clean Air Act. Accordingly, we no longer expect the Clean Power Plan to take effect. However, the EPA may issue new requirements that would regulate CO2 emissions from existing power plants. We cannot predict the outcome of the EPA’s future rulemaking or the outcome of any legal challenges relating to such future rulemakings, any of which could have an adverse effect on our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. Ameren and Ameren Missouri have incurred and expect to incur significant costs with respect to environmental compliance and site remediation. New or revised environmental regulations, enforcement initiatives, or legislation could result in a significant increase in capital expenditures and operating costs, decreased revenues, increased financing requirements, penalties or fines, or reduced operations of some of Ameren Missouri’s coal-fired energy centers, which, in turn, could lead to increased liquidity needs and higher financing costs. Actions required to ensure that Ameren Missouri’s facilities and operations are in compliance with environmental laws and regulations could be prohibitively expensive for Ameren Missouri if the costs are not fully recovered through rates. Environmental laws could require Ameren Missouri to close or to alter significantly the operations of its energy centers. If Ameren Missouri requests recovery of capital expenditures and costs for environmental compliance through rates, the MoPSC could deny recovery of all or a portion of these costs, prevent timely recovery, or make changes to the regulatory framework in an effort to minimize rate volatility and customer rate increases. Capital expenditures and costs to comply with future legislation or regulations might result in Ameren Missouri closing coal-fired energy centers earlier than planned. If these costs are not recoverable through rates, it could lead to an impairment of assets and reduced revenues. Any of the foregoing could have an adverse effect on our results of operations, financial positions, and liquidity. The TCJA is complex and significantly affects the Ameren Companies. As a result of the TCJA, the Ameren Companies expect lower operating cash flows, driven by lower customer rates, which may need to be funded through debt and/or equity issuances. Further, additional interpretations, regulations, amendments, and technical corrections to the federal income tax code, as well as the associated treatment by our regulators, may adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. The TCJA, among other things, reduced the federal statutory corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%, effective January 1, 2018. Additionally, the TCJA eliminated 50% accelerated depreciation tax benefits for nearly all regulated utility capital investments made after September 27, 2017. As of December 31, 2017, Ameren recorded a noncash charge to earnings of $154 million as a result of the revaluation of deferred taxes, largely attributable to Ameren (parent). Ameren also reclassified deferred income tax liabilities of $2.4 billion to regulatory liabilities. This reclassification is due to the reduction of the federal statutory corporate income tax rate, which reduced such income tax obligations, and the expected return of funds previously collected from customers. Our rate-regulated businesses recover income taxes in customer rates based on the federal and state statutory corporate income tax rates in effect when the revenue requirements used to determine those rates were established. However, there is a timing difference between when we collect funds from our customers for income taxes and when we pay such taxes. Excess deferred taxes were created as the deferred income tax obligation decreased due to a reduction in the federal statutory corporate income tax rate. The elimination of 50% accelerated tax depreciation on nearly all capital investments has caused an increase in Ameren’s near-term projected income tax liabilities. Ameren expects to largely offset its income tax obligations through about 2020 with existing net operating loss and tax credit carryforwards. Since we have been using existing net operating loss and tax credit carryforwards to largely offset income tax obligations, the effect of the reduced federal statutory corporate income tax rate is expected to be a decrease in operating cash flows. The decrease in operating cash flows results from reduced customer rates, reflecting the tax rate decrease, without a corresponding reduction in income tax payments until about 2021. Additionally, operating cash flows will be further reduced by lower customer rates, reflecting the return of excess deferred taxes previously collected from customers over periods of time determined by our regulators. The decrease in operating cash flows as a result of the TCJA is expected to be partially offset over time by increased customer rates due to higher rate base amounts, once approved by our regulators. We expect rate base amounts to be higher as a result of lower accumulated deferred income tax liabilities, due to the elimination of 50% accelerated tax depreciation, the reduced statutory income tax rate, and the return of excess deferred taxes to customers. Ameren expects a decrease in operating cash flows of approximately $1 billion from 2018 through 2022 (Ameren Missouri - $0.3 billion; Ameren Illinois - $0.4 billion) as a result of the TCJA, and expects an increase in rate base of approximately $1 billion over the same time period (Ameren Missouri - $0.3 billion; Ameren Illinois - $0.5 billion). Over the next five years, Ameren may be required to issue incremental debt and/or equity to fund this reduction in operating cash flows, with the long-term intent to maintain strong financial metrics and an equity ratio around 50%, as calculated in accordance with ratemaking frameworks. Ameren Missouri and Ameren Illinois expect to fund cash flows needs through debt issuances, adjustments of dividends to Ameren (parent), and/or capital contributions from Ameren (parent), with the intent to maintain strong financial metrics and an equity ratio around 50%, as calculated in accordance with ratemaking frameworks. As a result of the TCJA, financial metrics used by credit rating agencies may be negatively affected, primarily due to expected decreases in operating cash flows discussed above. Most of the effects of the TCJA will be reflected in adjusted customer electric and gas rates over time. The regulatory treatment of the effects of the TCJA will be subject to the discretion of the FERC, the MoPSC and the ICC. The period over which the return of excess deferred taxes will occur will ultimately be determined by our regulators. Certain aspects of the TCJA are unclear. These aspects will require interpretations and regulations from the IRS and state taxing authorities, and the TCJA could be subject to potential amendments and technical corrections, any of which could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. The revaluation of deferred taxes recorded as of December 31, 2017, may be subject to further adjustment in accordance with additional interpretations or as a result of the IRS audit of the 2017 income tax return, either of which could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. There may be other material adverse effects resulting from the TCJA that we have not yet identified, each of which could be material in any particular quarterly period. Customers’, legislators’, and regulators’ opinions of us are affected by many factors, including system reliability, implementation of our investment plans, protection of customer information, rates, and media coverage. To the extent that customers, legislators, or regulators have or develop a negative opinion of us, our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity could be adversely affected. Service interruptions can occur due to failures of equipment as a result of severe or destructive weather or other causes. The ability of Ameren Missouri and Ameren Illinois to respond promptly to such failures can affect customer satisfaction. In addition to system reliability issues, the success of modernization efforts, such as those being undertaken for Ameren Illinois’ electric and natural gas delivery systems, our ability to safeguard sensitive customer information and protect our systems from cyber attacks, and other actions can affect customer satisfaction. The level of rates, the timing and magnitude of rate increases, and the volatility of rates can also affect customer satisfaction. Customers’, legislators’, and regulators’ opinions of us can also be affected by media coverage, including social media, which may include information, whether factual or not, that damages our brand and reputation. If customers, legislators, or regulators have or develop a negative opinion of us and our utility services, this could result in increased costs associated with regulatory oversight and could affect the returns on common equity we are allowed to earn. Additionally, negative opinions about us could make it more difficult for our utilities to achieve favorable legislative or regulatory outcomes. Negative opinions could also result in sales volume reductions or increased use of distributed generation by our customers. Any of these consequences could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. We are subject to federal regulatory compliance and proceedings, which exposes us to the potential for regulatory penalties and other sanctions. The FERC can impose civil penalties of approximately $1.2 million per violation per day for violation of its regulations, rules, and orders, including mandatory NERC reliability standards. As owners and operators of bulk power transmission systems and electric energy centers, we are subject to mandatory NERC reliability standards, including cybersecurity standards. Compliance with these mandatory reliability standards may subject us to higher operating costs and may result in increased capital expenditures. If we were found not to be in compliance with these mandatory reliability standards, FERC regulations, rules, and orders, we could incur substantial monetary penalties and other sanctions, which could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. The FERC also conducts audits and reviews of Ameren Missouri’s, Ameren Illinois’, and ATXI’s accounting records to assess the accuracy of its formula ratemaking process, and it can require refunds to customers for previously billed amounts, with interest. OPERATIONAL RISKS The construction of, and capital improvements to, our electric and natural gas utility infrastructure involve substantial risks. These risks include escalating costs, unsatisfactory performance by the projects when completed, the inability to complete projects as scheduled, cost disallowances by regulators, and the inability to earn an adequate return on invested capital, any of which could result in higher costs and facility closures. We expect to incur significant capital expenditures to maintain and improve our electric and natural gas utility infrastructure and to comply with existing environmental regulations. We estimate that we will invest up to $11.4 billion (Ameren Missouri - up to $4.5 billion; Ameren Illinois - up to $6.6 billion; ATXI - up to $0.3 billion) of capital expenditures from 2018 through 2022. These estimates do not reflect the potential additional investments identified in Ameren Missouri’s integrated resource plan, which could represent incremental investments of approximately $1 billion through 2020 and are subject to regulatory approval. They also do not reflect potential additional investments that Ameren Missouri could make if improvements in its regulatory frameworks were made. These estimates include allowance for equity funds used during construction. Investments in Ameren’s rate-regulated operations are expected to be recoverable from customers, but they are subject to prudence reviews and are exposed to regulatory lag of varying degrees by jurisdiction. Our ability to complete construction projects successfully within projected estimates is contingent upon many variables and subject to substantial risks. These variables include, but are not limited to, project management expertise, escalating costs for materials and labor, the ability to obtain required project approvals, and the ability to obtain necessary rights-of-way and easements. Delays in obtaining permits, shortages in materials and qualified labor, suppliers and contractors who do not perform as required under their contracts, changes in the scope and timing of projects, the inability to raise capital on reasonable terms, or other events beyond our control could affect the schedule, cost, and performance of these projects. There is a risk that an energy center might not be permitted to continue to operate if pollution control equipment is not installed by prescribed deadlines or does not perform as expected. Should any such pollution control equipment not be installed on time or not perform as expected, Ameren Missouri could be subject to additional costs and to the loss of its investment in the project or facility. All of these project and construction risks could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. Ameren and Ameren Illinois may not be able to execute their electric transmission investment plans or to realize the expected return on those investments. Ameren, through ATXI and Ameren Illinois, is investing significant capital resources in electric transmission. These investments are based on the FERC’s regulatory framework and a rate of return on common equity that is currently higher than that allowed by our state commissions. However, the FERC regulatory framework and rate of return are subject to changes, including changes as a result of third-party complaints and challenges at the FERC. The regulatory framework may be less favorable or the rate of return may be lower in the future. A pending complaint case filed with the FERC in February 2015 could reduce the allowed return on common equity and could require customer refunds. A 50 basis point reduction in the FERC-allowed return on common equity would reduce Ameren’s and Ameren Illinois’ earnings by an estimated $8 million and $4 million, respectively, based on each company’s 2018 projected rate base. A significant portion of Ameren’s electric transmission investments consists of three separate ATXI projects, which have been approved by MISO as multi-value projects. As of December 31, 2017, ATXI’s expected remaining investment in all three projects was approximately $300 million, with the total investment expected to be more than $1.6 billion The last of these projects is expected to be completed in 2019. A failure by ATXI to complete these three projects on time and within projected cost estimates could adversely affect Ameren’s results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. Within MISO, certain new transmission projects which are eligible for regional cost sharing may be subject to competition. Therefore, Ameren may need to compete to build certain future electric transmission projects in its subsidiaries’ service territories. Such competition could limit Ameren’s future transmission investment. Our electric generation, transmission, and distribution facilities are subject to operational risks that could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. Our financial performance depends on the successful operation of electric generation, transmission, and distribution facilities. Operation of electric generation, transmission, and distribution facilities involves many risks, including: • facility shutdowns due to operator error, or a failure of equipment or processes; • longer-than-anticipated maintenance outages; • aging infrastructure that may require significant expenditures to operate and maintain; • disruptions in the delivery of fuel, failure of our fuel suppliers to provide adequate quantities or quality of fuel, or lack of adequate inventories of fuel, including ultra-low-sulfur coal used by Ameren Missouri to comply with environmental regulations; • lack of adequate water required for cooling plant operations; • labor disputes; • suppliers and contractors who do not perform as required under their contracts; • inability to comply with regulatory or permit requirements, including those relating to environmental laws; • disruptions in the delivery of electricity to our customers; • handling, storage, and disposition of CCR; • unusual or adverse weather conditions or other natural disasters, including severe storms, droughts, floods, tornadoes, earthquakes, solar flares, and electromagnetic pulses; • accidents that might result in injury or loss of life, extensive property damage, or environmental damage; • cybersecurity risks, including loss of operational control of Ameren Missouri’s energy centers and our transmission and distribution systems and loss of data, including sensitive customer, employee, financial and operating system information, through insider or outsider actions; • failure of other operators’ facilities and the effect of that failure on our electric system and customers; • the occurrence of catastrophic events such as fires, explosions, acts of sabotage or terrorism, pandemic health events, or other similar events; • limitations on amounts of insurance available to cover losses that might arise in connection with operating our electric generation, transmission, and distribution facilities; • inability to implement or maintain information systems; • failure to keep pace with rapid technological change; and • other unanticipated operations and maintenance expenses and liabilities. The foregoing risks could affect the controls and operations of our facilities or impede our ability to meet regulatory requirements, which could increase operating costs, increase our capital requirements and costs, reduce our revenues or have an adverse effect on our liquidity. Ameren Missouri’s ownership and operation of a nuclear energy center creates business, financial, and waste disposal risks. Ameren Missouri’s ownership of the Callaway energy center subjects it to risks associated with nuclear generation, including: • potential harmful effects on the environment and human health resulting from radiological releases associated with the operation of nuclear facilities and the storage, handling, and disposal of radioactive materials; • continued uncertainty regarding the federal government’s plan to permanently store spent nuclear fuel and, as a result, the need to provide for long-term storage of spent nuclear fuel at the Callaway energy center; • limitations on the amounts and types of insurance available to cover losses that might arise in connection with the Callaway energy center or other United States nuclear facilities, including losses due to market performance and other economic factors that adversely affect the value of the securities in the nuclear decommissioning trust fund; • uncertainties about contingencies and retrospective premium assessments relating to claims at the Callaway energy center or any other United States nuclear facilities; • public and governmental concerns about the safety and adequacy of security at nuclear facilities; • uncertainties about the technological and financial aspects of decommissioning nuclear facilities at the end of their licensed lives; • limited availability of fuel supply and our reliance on licensed fuel assemblies that are fabricated by Westinghouse, Callaway energy center’s only NRC-licensed supplier of such assemblies, which is currently in bankruptcy proceedings; • costly and extended outages for scheduled or unscheduled maintenance and refueling; • the adverse effect of poor market performance and other economic factors on the asset values of nuclear decommissioning trust funds and the corresponding increase, upon MoPSC approval, in customer rates to fund the estimated decommissioning costs; and • potential adverse effects of a natural disaster, acts of sabotage or terrorism, including cyber attack, or any accident leading to release of nuclear contamination. The NRC has broad authority under federal law to impose licensing and safety requirements for nuclear facilities. In the event of noncompliance, the NRC has the authority to impose fines or to shut down a unit, or both, depending upon its assessment of the severity of the situation, until compliance is achieved. Revised safety requirements promulgated from time to time by the NRC could necessitate substantial capital expenditures at the Callaway energy center. In addition, if a serious nuclear incident were to occur, it could adversely affect Ameren’s and Ameren Missouri’s results of operations, financial condition, and liquidity. A major incident at a nuclear facility anywhere in the world could cause the NRC to limit or prohibit the operation of any domestic nuclear unit and could also cause the NRC to impose additional conditions or requirements on the industry, which could increase costs and result in additional capital expenditures. NRC standards relating to seismic risk require Ameren Missouri to further evaluate the impact of an earthquake on its Callaway energy center due to its proximity to a fault line, which could require the installation of additional capital equipment. Our natural gas distribution and storage activities involve numerous risks that may result in accidents and increased operating costs that could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. Inherent in our natural gas distribution and storage activities are a variety of hazards and operating risks, such as leaks, explosions, mechanical problems and cybersecurity risks, which could cause substantial financial losses. In addition, these hazards could result in serious injury, loss of human life, significant damage to property, environmental impacts, and impairment of our operations, which in turn could lead us to incur substantial losses. The location of distribution mains and storage facilities near populated areas, including residential areas, business centers, industrial sites, and other public gathering places, could increase the level of damages resulting from these risks. A major domestic incident involving natural gas systems could lead to additional capital expenditures, increased regulation, and fines and penalties on natural gas utilities. The occurrence of any of these events could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. Significant portions of our electric generation, transmission, and distribution facilities and natural gas transmission and distribution facilities are aging. This aging infrastructure may require significant additional maintenance or replacement that could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. Our aging infrastructure may pose risks to system reliability and expose us to expedited or unplanned significant capital expenditures and operating costs. All of Ameren Missouri’s coal-fired energy centers were constructed prior to 1978, and the Callaway energy center began operating in 1984. The age of these energy centers increases the risks of unplanned outages, reduced generation output, and higher maintenance expense. If, at the end of its life, an energy center’s cost has not been fully recovered, Ameren Missouri may be adversely affected if the MoPSC does not allow such cost to be recovered in rates. Ameren Missouri may also be adversely affected if the MoPSC does not allow full or timely recovery of decommissioning costs associated with the retirement of an energy center. Aging transmission and distribution facilities are more prone to failure than new facilities, which results in higher maintenance expense and the need to replace these facilities with new infrastructure. Even if the system is properly maintained, its reliability may ultimately deteriorate and negatively affect our ability to serve our customers, which could result in increased costs associated with regulatory oversight. The frequency and duration of customer outages are among the IEIMA performance standards. Any failure to achieve these standards will result in a reduction in Ameren Illinois’ allowed return on equity on electric distribution assets. The higher maintenance costs associated with aging infrastructure and capital expenditures for new or replacement infrastructure could cause additional rate volatility for our customers, resistance by our regulators to allow customer rate increases, and/or regulatory lag in some of our jurisdictions, any of which could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. Energy conservation, energy efficiency, distributed generation, energy storage, and other factors that reduce energy demand could adversely affect Ameren and Ameren Missouri’s results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. Without a regulatory mechanism to ensure recovery, declines in energy usage will result in an under-recovery of Ameren Missouri’s revenue requirement. Such declines could occur due to a number of factors: • Conservation and energy-efficiency programs. Missouri allows for conservation and energy-efficiency programs that are designed to reduce energy demand. • Distributed generation and other energy-efficiency efforts. Ameren Missouri is exposed to declining usage from energy-efficiency efforts not related to its energy-efficiency programs, as well as from distributed generation sources, such as solar panels and other technologies. Ameren Missouri generates power at utility-scale energy centers to achieve economies of scale and to produce power at a competitive cost. Some distributed generation technologies have become more cost-competitive, with decreasing costs expected in the future. The costs of these distributed generation technologies may decline over time to a level that is competitive with that of Ameren Missouri’s energy centers. Additionally, technological advances in energy storage may be coupled with distributed generation to reduce the demand for our electric utility services. Increased adoption of these technologies by customers could decrease our revenues if customers cease to use our generation, transmission, and distribution services at current levels. Ameren Missouri might incur stranded costs, which ultimately might not be recovered through rates. • Macroeconomic factors. Macroeconomic factors resulting in low economic growth or contraction within Ameren Missouri’s service territories could reduce energy demand. We are subject to employee work force factors that could adversely affect our operations. Our businesses depend upon our ability to employ and retain key officers and other skilled professional and technical employees. A significant portion of our work force is nearing retirement, including many employees with specialized skills, such as maintaining and servicing our electric and natural gas infrastructure and operating our energy centers. We are also party to collective bargaining agreements that collectively represent about 52% of Ameren’s total employees. Any work stoppage experienced in connection with negotiations of collective bargaining agreements could adversely affect our operations. Our operations are subject to acts of terrorism, cyber attacks, and other intentionally disruptive acts. Like other electric and natural gas utilities, our energy centers, fuel storage facilities, transmission and distribution facilities, and information systems may be affected by terrorist activities and other intentionally disruptive acts, including cyber attacks, which could disrupt our ability to produce or distribute our energy products. Within our industry, there have been attacks on energy infrastructure, such as substations and related assets, in the past, and there may be more attacks in the future. Any such incident could limit our ability to generate, purchase, or transmit power or natural gas and could have significant regional economic consequences. Any such disruption could result in a significant decrease in revenues, a significant increase in costs including those for repair, or adversely impact economic activity in our service territory which, in turn, could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. There has been an increase in the number and sophistication of cyber attacks across all industries worldwide. A security breach at our physical assets or in our information systems could affect the reliability of the transmission and distribution system, disrupt electric generation, including nuclear generation, and/or subject us to financial harm resulting from theft or the inappropriate release of certain types of information, including sensitive customer, employee, financial, and operating system information. Many of our suppliers, vendors, contractors, and information technology providers have access to systems that support our operations and maintain customer and employee data. A breach of these third-party systems could adversely affect our business as if it was a breach of our own system. If a significant breach occurred, our reputation could be adversely affected, customer confidence could be diminished, and/or we could be subject to increased costs associated with regulatory oversight, fines or legal claims, any of which could result in a significant decrease in revenues or significant costs for remedying the impacts of such a breach. Our generation, transmission, and distribution systems are part of an interconnected system. Therefore, a disruption caused by a cyber incident at another utility, electric generator, RTO, or commodity supplier could also adversely affect our businesses. Insurance might not be adequate to cover losses that arise in connection with these events. In addition, new regulations could require changes in our security measures and result in increased costs. The occurrence of any of these events could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. FINANCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND MARKET RISKS Our businesses are dependent on our ability to access the capital markets successfully. We might not have access to sufficient capital in the amounts and at the times needed. We rely on short-term and long-term debt as significant sources of liquidity and funding for capital requirements not satisfied by our operating cash flow, as well as to refinance long-term debt. By the end of 2019, $951 million and $457 million of senior secured notes are scheduled to mature at Ameren Missouri and Ameren Illinois, respectively. Ameren Missouri and Ameren Illinois expect to refinance these senior secured notes. In addition, the Ameren Companies may refinance a portion of their short-term debt with long-term debt in 2018 and 2019. The inability to raise debt or equity capital at reasonable terms, or at all, could negatively affect our ability to maintain and to expand our businesses. Events beyond our control, such as a recession or extreme volatility in the debt, equity, or credit markets, might create uncertainty that could increase our cost of capital or impair or eliminate our ability to access the debt, equity, or credit markets, including our ability to draw on bank credit facilities. Any adverse change in our credit ratings could reduce access to capital and trigger collateral postings and prepayments. Such changes could also increase the cost of borrowing and the costs of fuel, power, and natural gas supply, among other things, which could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position, and liquidity. Ameren’s holding company structure could limit its ability to pay common stock dividends and to service its debt obligations. Ameren is a holding company; therefore, its primary assets are its investments in the common stock of its subsidiaries, including Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois, and ATXI. As a result, Ameren’s ability to pay dividends on its common stock depends on the earnings of its subsidiaries and the ability of its subsidiaries to pay dividends or otherwise transfer funds to Ameren. Similarly, Ameren’s ability to service its debt obligations is dependent upon the earnings of its operating subsidiaries and the distribution of those earnings and other payments, including payments of principal and interest under affiliate indebtedness. The payment of dividends to Ameren by its subsidiaries in turn depends on their results of operations, and other items affecting retained earnings, and available cash. Ameren’s subsidiaries are separate and distinct legal entities and have no obligation, contingent or otherwise, to pay any dividends or make any other distributions (except for payments required pursuant to the terms of affiliate borrowing arrangements and cash payments under the tax allocation agreement) to Ameren. Certain financing agreements, corporate organizational documents, and certain statutory and regulatory requirements may impose restrictions on the ability of Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois, and ATXI to transfer funds to Ameren in the form of cash dividends, loans, or advances. Increasing costs associated with our defined benefit retirement and postretirement plans, health care plans, and other employee benefits could adversely affect our financial position and liquidity. Ameren offers defined benefit pension and postretirement benefit plans covering substantially all of its union employees. Ameren offers defined benefit pension plans covering substantially all of its non-union employees and postretirement benefit plans covering non-union employees hired before October 2015. Assumptions related to future costs, returns on investments, interest rates, timing of employee retirements, and mortality, as well as other actuarial matters, have a significant impact on our customers’ rates and our plan funding requirements. Ameren’s total unfunded obligation under its pension and postretirement benefit plans was $551 million as of December 31, 2017. Ameren expects to fund its pension plans at a level equal to the greater of the pension cost or the legally required minimum contribution. Based on Ameren’s assumptions at December 31, 2017, its investment performance in 2017, and its pension funding policy, Ameren expects to make annual contributions of less than $1 million to $60 million in each of the next five years, with aggregate estimated contributions of $120 million. We expect Ameren Missouri’s and Ameren Illinois’ portions of the future funding requirements to be 35% and 55%, respectively. These amounts are estimates. They may change with actual investment performance, changes in interest rates, changes in our assumptions, changes in government regulations, and any voluntary contributions. In addition to the costs of our retirement plans, the costs of providing health care benefits to our employees and retirees have increased in recent years. We believe that our employee benefit costs, including costs of health care plans for our employees and former employees, will continue to rise. Future legislative changes related to health care could also significantly change our benefit programs and costs. The increasing costs and funding requirements associated with our defined benefit retirement plans, health care plans, and other employee benefits could increase our financing needs and otherwise adversely affect our financial position and liquidity. ITEM 1B.